All Things 2023-2024 Minnesota Twins Off-Season Thread

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Gopher_In_NYC said:
I don’t think he has to be “top tier,” with our depth. I think Ryan or Ober can be a number two - time to place bigger expectations on them and tell them time to step up.
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If it's not top tier, I think they can afford Hoskins and a guy like Severino or Wacha. I've seen predictions for Hoskins around 12-15 a year.
 

I saw a tweet/article somewhere - might have been a tweet to an Athletic article - stating that the Twins' front office has a plan to trade position players for pitching in the off-season. So, IF you conclude that (for example) Brooks Lee's path to the majors is blocked by Lewis, Correa, Julien, etc, then Lee becomes a trade chip and so forth.

--on payroll, until the local TV deal is determined, I don't see the Twins going after any high-priced free agents. Need to know how much you have to spend.

--Jair Camargo and Yunior Severino were added to the 40-man roster. Canterino, Gordon, Miranda and Moran were taken off 60-day IL and put back on 40-man roster. some other minor leaguers have to be added to the 40-man roster by November 14 or become exposed to the Rule 5 draft. top candidates include Austin Martin and Emmanuel Rodriguez. Personally, I don't expect Gordon or Moran to be on the final 40-man - but I could be wrong.
 

The Twins current payroll sits at $120 million. Even with the TV uncertainty, I don't think they're going to cut from $153 down to $120 coming off a division championship in a win-now window. They should have at least $15-$20 to million to spend. More if they are trading Kepler or Polanco.
 


I'd like to see the following:

-Trade for Dylan Cease (something like Marco Raya, Kepler, Larnach, Moran, Woods Richardson)

-Sign Kiermeier (~$8 million/year 2 year deal)

-Sign Carlos Santana (move Kiriloff to RF) (1/$10)

-Sign Liam Hendricks (1/$8)
 


short ornery norwegian said:
I saw a tweet/article somewhere - might have been a tweet to an Athletic article - stating that the Twins' front office has a plan to trade position players for pitching in the off-season. So, IF you conclude that (for example) Brooks Lee's path to the majors is blocked by Lewis, Correa, Julien, etc, then Lee becomes a trade chip and so forth.
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I saw the same article and they mentioned Yunior as a trade candidate IIRC. As I previously mentioned, I doubt they trade Lee as he is the third ranked young gun, per another Athletic article (Lewis was 1, Jenkins was 2) and Lee was 1 last year. As noted previously, he only has around ~650 ABs in the minors (150 of those @ St. Paul), so he could use more seasoning ala Wallner; additionally, he has Uber positional flexibility for the infield and can be 🔌 n play for our iron men, manning the left side of the field. He’ll get a call up at some point when either they, Julien or Castro get hurt,

The article mentioned Farmer as a good trade candidate, as he has a reasonable salary and could be an everyday SS for a team at only $6M. He has a good stick and is decent defensively and Castro can handle his reps.
short ornery norwegian said:
--on payroll, until the local TV deal is determined, I don't see the Twins going after any high-priced free agents. Need to know how much you have to spend.

--Jair Camargo and Yunior Severino were added to the 40-man roster. Canterino, Gordon, Miranda and Moran were taken off 60-day IL and put back on 40-man roster. some other minor leaguers have to be added to the 40-man roster by November 14 or become exposed to the Rule 5 draft. top candidates include Austin Martin and Emmanuel Rodriguez. Personally, I don't expect Gordon or Moran to be on the final 40-man - but I could be wrong.
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Both Rodrguez and Martin will be added - per another article on the Athletic. Rodrguez was listed by on writer as one of the 50 top prospects in his end of year ranking and Martin is the heir apparent to replace MAT, as he’ll likely get a nice pay bump this offseason.

I agree that Gordon and Moran are gone, they probably try and trade them before dropping them.

This is so fun to have organization depth- the plan is working. Good job, for the most part Falvey.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
I don’t think he has to be “top tier,” with our depth. I think Ryan or Ober can be a number two - time to place bigger expectations on them and tell them time to step up.
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That’s where I would want them to be top tier as opposed to another Ryan or Ober. Give me the quantity of a top two vs the quality of mediocre starters.
 


From the Parkinglot said:
That’s where I would want them to be top tier as opposed to another Ryan or Ober. Give me the quantity of a top two vs the quality of mediocre starters.
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I disagree that Ryan is “mediocre,” his stats indicate otherwise IMO.

Lifetime Stats -

www.baseball-reference.com

Joe Ryan Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

Check out the latest Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More of Joe Ryan. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, bats, throws, school and more on Baseball-reference.com
www.baseball-reference.com www.baseball-reference.com

26-19 record
1.11 WHIP
3.8 WAR, including 1.8 this season
4.05 ERA
Averages over I K per inning 378 in 355

Plus he’s a dog - pitching through a groin injury, while not smart, tells me he’s got the right stuff to go to the next level and I bet he’s an All-Star in the next two years.
 




Gopher_In_NYC said:
I disagree that Ryan is “mediocre,” his stats indicate otherwise IMO.

Lifetime Stats -

www.baseball-reference.com

Joe Ryan Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

Check out the latest Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More of Joe Ryan. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, bats, throws, school and more on Baseball-reference.com
www.baseball-reference.com www.baseball-reference.com

26-19 record
1.11 WHIP
3.8 WAR, including 1.8 this season
4.05 ERA
Averages over I K per inning 378 in 355

Plus he’s a dog - pitching through a groin injury, while not smart, tells me he’s got the right stuff to go to the next level and I bet he’s an All-Star in the next two years.
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Imagine if you get someone better than him. That pushes him down and makes you not as reliant on Paddock to be a star. I have to imagine if Ober was on a pitch count in 2023, then paddock will be in 2024. Plus who knows what they do with Varland and his role as either the bullpen or the rotation.
 

From the Parkinglot said:

As expected.
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Twins are not the only team in this situation. If Bally (Diamond) goes under, a lot of teams are going to be scrambling for new local TV deals and will most likely see a significant drop in revenue.

I think I've mentioned this before, but I listened to an interview with Commissioner Rob Manfred on a podcast where he discussed the broadcasting and steaming issues at length. Manfred said that - for teams losing their RSN's - his goal is to help those teams get back to 80% of their previous local TV revenue - but that might take 2 or 3 years to accomplish. So he was pretty clear that teams like the Twins will see lower revenue for several years.

Bottom line - you can forget about the Twins signing any high-priced free agent pitchers or position players. I think this puts Polanco and Kepler on the trade block. If they could find a taker for Vazquez, that's another salary they might want to unload ($10-million for next year). move those three players and that's $30-million off the payroll. don't forget that some players will be getting raises through arbitration.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Bottom line - you can forget about the Twins signing any high-priced free agent pitchers or position players. I think this puts Polanco and Kepler on the trade block.
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You could also argue that they are more likely to keep these guys based on the value of their contracts, but I definitely agree with what you're saying.

The average fan that doesn't follow TV contracts will be ranting about how cheap the Twins are once again and that's probably not fair considering the Bally's fiasco. However, it sure would be nice to have an Ownership group that treats the team like a passionate hobby rather than a business.
 



short ornery norwegian said:
Twins are not the only team in this situation. If Bally (Diamond) goes under, a lot of teams are going to be scrambling for new local TV deals and will most likely see a significant drop in revenue.

I think I've mentioned this before, but I listened to an interview with Commissioner Rob Manfred on a podcast where he discussed the broadcasting and steaming issues at length. Manfred said that - for teams losing their RSN's - his goal is to help those teams get back to 80% of their previous local TV revenue - but that might take 2 or 3 years to accomplish. So he was pretty clear that teams like the Twins will see lower revenue for several years.

Bottom line - you can forget about the Twins signing any high-priced free agent pitchers or position players. I think this puts Polanco and Kepler on the trade block. If they could find a taker for Vazquez, that's another salary they might want to unload ($10-million for next year). move those three players and that's $30-million off the payroll. don't forget that some players will be getting raises through arbitration.
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Good points - as usual.

IIRC, per @howeda7, the projected payroll, including the likely keeps, like Farmer (initially- as I believe he’ll be traded), is $120M. That figure includes FA who are projected to leave, Like Donny 🦇 and MAT.
 

From the Parkinglot said:
Imagine if you get someone better than him. That pushes him down and makes you not as reliant on Paddock to be a star. I have to imagine if Ober was on a pitch count in 2023, then paddock will be in 2024. Plus who knows what they do with Varland and his role as either the bullpen or the rotation.
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Per @short ornery norwegian, I think they’ll be conservative and I don’t blame them at all in this instance, they can always add an arm at the trade deadline and we’ll be the odds on fav for Sir Rocco’s 4th 👑. Has construction started on his statue yet?

Also I expect our O to be rocking and rolling from the jump this year, based on Lewis all year 🤞, Carlos’ feet will be better (played with planter fasciitis all season long - never complained, used it as an excuse- PJ can from him) and I’m calling my shot now Buck plays a 100 game in CF this year and produces st a good level - .270 with 25+ HRs. We’re advancing to the League championship series.

 

Slim Tubby said:
You could also argue that they are more likely to keep these guys based on the value of their contracts, but I definitely agree with what you're saying.

The average fan that doesn't follow TV contracts will be ranting about how cheap the Twins are once again and that's probably not fair considering the Bally's fiasco. However, it sure would be nice to have an Ownership group that treats the team like a passionate hobby rather than a business.
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I think they trade Polanco and Farmer, as that’s $16.5M and keep Kep for the year and Rodriquez will be one of the corner OF in 2025.
 

Twitter is taking the predictable route - the Pohlads are cheap bastards - sell the team - this is how they reward the fans after a good season - and so forth.

Here's what gets me. all season long, all I see online is "Bally Sucks. Why can't I watch the Twins?"
But when the Bally money goes away, the masses now say that's the Twins' fault.

It all hinges on what kind of a TV deal the Twins can put together - possibly with help from MLB. once they know how much revenue they will have, then the Twins can set a final budget.

But they have to make payroll and personnel decisions now - before they know what the budget will be. that's a difficult situation for any business.
 

The money thing is overblown. A bit disappointed yes but doesn’t mean they can’t make moves. Wallner essentially takes Gallo’s spot. That saves over $9M. If they trade Polanco, that’ll free up money too. Maeda, Gray, Mahle etc being gone also does. They’re replacing at least some of the free agents with younger cheaper guys.
 


forever a gopher said:
That $15MM going into the albatross of the Buxton deal sure would come in handy...
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on the flip side, IF Buxton can come back and contribute something next season, that would be a boost. in baseball terms, $15-million isn't a huge salary.

maybe it's false hope. maybe I'm nuts. But after the most recent surgery, Buxton was quoted as saying his knee already felt better than it had all season.

the Twins owe him the money either way. so for the Twins' sake, they had better hope that Buxton is a contributor next season.

Could be worse - it could be a Bobby Bonilla situation. the Mets are still paying Bonilla $1.2-million a year and he hasn't played for over 20 years.
 

I’m going to wait until the pitchers and catchers show up and see where the actual payroll is before complaining.

I would love to see the twins make a run at Mitch Keller with Pittsburg. Guy has Lopez like upside. Would have 2024 and 2025 of team control before being a UFA.
 

From the Parkinglot said:
I’m going to wait until the pitchers and catchers show up and see where the actual payroll is before complaining.

I would love to see the twins make a run at Mitch Keller with Pittsburg. Guy has Lopez like upside. Would have 2024 and 2025 of team control before being a UFA.
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Also, in the past I don't think the Owners have gotten in the way to add reasonable payroll at the Trade Deadline when they are in contention.
 

Ope3 said:
Also, in the past I don't think the Owners have gotten in the way to add reasonable payroll at the Trade Deadline when they are in contention.
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I don’t think the owners have ever gotten in the way. Terry Ryan almost wore it as a badge of honor to return money to the owners. I don’t see this front office doing that and o don’t see the owners expecting that. There is still plenty of money to fill the holes on this team depending upon who is traded and what rookies they want to play.
 

GophersInIowa said:
The money thing is overblown. A bit disappointed yes but doesn’t mean they can’t make moves. Wallner essentially takes Gallo’s spot. That saves over $9M. If they trade Polanco, that’ll free up money too. Maeda, Gray, Mahle etc being gone also does. They’re replacing at least some of the free agents with younger cheaper guys.
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Going from $156 million to $140-145 given the TV situation is reasonable. Going from $156 to $120 is not. Given they are already leaking this out, it makes me fear they're doing the later.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
on the flip side, IF Buxton can come back and contribute something next season, that would be a boost. in baseball terms, $15-million isn't a huge salary.

maybe it's false hope. maybe I'm nuts. But after the most recent surgery, Buxton was quoted as saying his knee already felt better than it had all season.

the Twins owe him the money either way. so for the Twins' sake, they had better hope that Buxton is a contributor next season.

Could be worse - it could be a Bobby Bonilla situation. the Mets are still paying Bonilla $1.2-million a year and he hasn't played for over 20 years.
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I think the Twins and Buxton will give it one last try in 2024. If the knee doesn't get/stay healthy, they will reach some sort of injury settlement on the remaining $$ next off-season and call it a day.
 

howeda7 said:
Going from $156 million to $140-145 given the TV situation is reasonable. Going from $156 to $120 is not. Given they are already leaking this out, it makes me fear they're doing the later.
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Yeah we'll just have to see.
 

howeda7 said:
Going from $156 million to $140-145 given the TV situation is reasonable. Going from $156 to $120 is not. Given they are already leaking this out, it makes me fear they're doing the later.
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Your fears should be relieved by the tweet saying it will only go as low as $125 not $120. ;)

It's is also budget conscious stuff like this that has me thinking simulcasting TV/Radio is totally on the table, even though unlikely. Might also be a short term thing.
 




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