Actual chance at beating Ohio State?

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It will be an interesting game. The 2021 Gophers will be playing the 2021 Buckeyes, and no one knows exactly how either team will look.

But, I believe that this will not be a low-scoring game, and the Gophers will need to limit the Buckeyes to 3 points instead of allowing 7 points on the majority of drives.
 

Word said:
20%
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I think this is correct. They have a new QB....who could potentially make some mistakes that we could take advantage of.

But really.....I think the super experienced and talented offensive line....along with a guy in Ibrahim, who could potentially be a Doak Walker finalist this year.....will help to run clock and limit OSU possessions. Could very well come down to a handful of plays in the 4th quarter to determine the outcome. And again....we have experience.
 

You guys are getting me fired up!

Would a two loss OSU make it to the CFP playoff? Sure would be nice to beat them three times this season 💪〽️
 



VolitileGopher said:
Partly true, but the line is also a function of the sharp action versus the public, so when they set the line they are trying to be as "sharp" as the sharp money. OSU, ALA, MICH, ND, BYU.. those schools also have large fan bases who flop down cash on their squads no matter the line. So there is usually a little built in value to bet against those teams with large followings.
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I do not think there are any facts to back up the statement that fans of certain schools bet large sums of money on their schools no matter what the spread is.
And sharp is a misused word.
 

stuck_in_scony_go4_fan said:
And your an idiot for compairing auburn to Ohio state.. auburn is nowhere near as good, as talented, nor as deep as ohio state
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I am an idiot for saying a bowl week top 12 team who beat Alabama is better than a week 1 anyone?

okay
 


The Gophers have played Ohio St fairly well over the last three games, with none of them being blowouts. This Gophers team is better than any of those three.

GWG's model gives the Gophers a 37% chance of winning currently.
 



stocker08 said:
I think this is correct. They have a new QB....who could potentially make some mistakes that we could take advantage of.

But really.....I think the super experienced and talented offensive line....along with a guy in Ibrahim, who could potentially be a Doak Walker finalist this year.....will help to run clock and limit OSU possessions. Could very well come down to a handful of plays in the 4th quarter to determine the outcome. And again....we have experience.
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Tanner and the receiving corp have to be ready to play a very good game, too, perhaps from the get go. If Mo is having success on the ground, tOSU will pack the box, removing all running lanes ... unless and until it is forced to respect our passing game, especially passes of 10+ yards. A decent amount of Mo's success in the past has been tied to the fact that, under PJ, we have had a robust, multi-threat passing attack that can crack off big plays. Makes packing the box a more dangerous strategy for the defense--any defense, including Ohio State's.
 

Married@SiebertField said:
Win the turnover battle and create big offensive plays early in the game: in the 1977 Michigan game it was an early Carlson to Anhorn pass—only about 17 yards but it showed Minnesota would attack downfield with a QB with limited experience and then the fourth down Marian Barber TD on the second possession. Arrange for Rick Leach to start at QB for OSU...
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I am so tired of the "turnover battle". Kneel on every play if you think that will prevent turnovers. I am on the record right now, today THIS IS THE YEAR WE BEAT OHIO ST. PJ's eyes have been bugging out for this win for a long time.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I look at this as more of an X's and O's or strategy question.

What can or should the Gophers do to give themselves the best chance of winning?

In no particular order:
1. Get the lead. 7 pts nice. 10-pt lead better.
2. control time of possession. long clock-eating drives.
3. no empty possessions. can't afford 3-and-outs or multiple drives that end with no points.
4. limit OSU explosive plays. make them earn points. no 3-play, 1:15 drives.
5. Special teams must be at least good, and hopefully special. Cannot be bad.
6. Mo goes for at least 150+.
7. No turnovers.
8. Morgan must play smart - throw away ball to avoid sacks. take check-downs to RB or TE.
9. WR's must step up. Someone other than CRAB has to make a key catch.
10. D-line must hold its own
11. LB's must be solid. Hold the Edge. Hold the bleepin' edge.
12. DB's play as a unit. keep everything in front of you.
13. No weird PJ Time-outs.
14. Stay healthy
15. no bad penalties

Yeah, that is a long list. but that is what it will take IMHO to knock off an OSU.
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No weird timeouts? Now we're dreaming
 

salzie said:
No weird timeouts? Now we're dreaming
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I actually think this is one of the things PJ does really well. He's saved many penalties or ill considered plays by spending first half timeouts we wouldn't have used later anyway. I don't see a lot of other coaches as on the ball as he is about it.

Of course, we can avoid getting into those situations.
 



Coach obviously sees things on the field that translates into interesting TOs...

It has taken time to get used to but this is another somewhat unique aspect of his coaching style.
 

1st game of the season is literally the best time to beat them, esp. with their turnover. Gophers hang on to win a nail-biter.

I know it’s fashionable to say “yeah, but OSU will beat us in the championship game rematch”…but I say screw it, we’ll beat them there as well.

Screw Bucky and the HawkeyesOnMyBelly fans, Gophers are winning it all this year. Old timers will be salty that it means no Rose Bowl - again - but oh well.
 

fmlizard said:
I actually think this is one of the things PJ does really well. He's saved many penalties or ill considered plays by spending first half timeouts we wouldn't have used later anyway. I don't see a lot of other coaches as on the ball as he is about it.

Of course, we can avoid getting into those situations.
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I think the concern is there are ill-considered plays or confusion at times, causing the unnecessary use of time outs.
 

Dances With Gophers said:
1st game of the season is literally the best time to beat them, esp. with their turnover. Gophers hang on to win a nail-biter.

I know it’s fashionable to say “yeah, but OSU will beat us in the championship game rematch”…but I say screw it, we’ll beat them there as well.

Screw Bucky and the HawkeyesOnMyBelly fans, Gophers are winning it all this year. Old timers will be salty that it means no Rose Bowl - again - but oh well.
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OK, we win one of the last 26 vs. them, and then beat them twice in the same season?! Well we can hope, but I don;t think that there are enough zeros on a calculator to describe the odds of that happening. On the other hand, IIRC it took years before the North Stars ever won a game in Boston. But once they did, the second win came shortly after thereafter.
 

This year is the 40th anniversary of the last time we beat tOSU in Minneapolis (1981). Nice anniversary present coming?
 


Some guy said:
I am an idiot for saying a bowl week top 12 team who beat Alabama is better than a week 1 anyone?

okay
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I don't agree with him calling you an idiot, but the talent level at OSU is a different level than Auburn. Also I'm not sure what the point is comparing end of year vs week 1 considering it's also week 1 for us.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I don't agree with him calling you an idiot, but the talent level at OSU is a different level than Auburn. Also I'm not sure what the point is comparing end of year vs week 1 considering it's also week 1 for us.
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A)
The talent level of experienced players on 2019 auburn isn’t that different than Ohio state of 2021

B)
Your second point is correct but I already said that. My whole point was that you can make pretty bad mistakes and still beat good teams. Which is true. And is the reason 2019 auburn beat Alabama. Purdue beat Ohio state a few years back. 2017 Syracuse beat Clemson. A BAD Va Tech team beat a national champion Ohio state team while turning it over 3 times and committing over 100 yards in penalties in 2014.
Does 2021 Ohio state beat 2019 auburn. Probably? I don’t know: neither does anybody. But that doesn’t detract from the point I was making that you don’t have to play perfect games to beat teams like Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama.
 


I'm sorry, but I don't see it. 20% sounds like a reasonable estimate, though.

OSU will be inexperienced at several positions, but if we go position by position I'm guessing you'd take OSU's starter most of the time. I agree that grinding it out is the way MN can stay in the game, but I don't think OSU would mind that terribly either. Would you rather be grinding it out with Mo and taking an occasional shot to CAB against the OSU secondary or grinding it out with Master Teague and taking an occasional shot to Chris Olave against the MN secondary? I just can't shake the feeling that:
  • They're going to chew up yards on the ground like teams did to MN last year...
  • At just the right time they'll hit Olave for 2 or 3 big plays by either taking advantage of our underwhelming S play or throwing short, easy completions he breaks.
  • Without a game-breaking WR for MN (I love CAB but he's not), OSU will press like crazy, crowd the box, and force Tanner to his 2nd and 3rd reads which gives their (I'm guessing) very talented DL time to get home on the rush.
  • But hey, CFB is amazing and anything can happen. It's a big reason we all love it!
 


I am the ultimate pessimist but every thing is here for an upset and I think it will happen., it’s a very close game but I have the gophers by 3. Our oline is one of the top best in America, and we have a lot of experience, defense will be improved just enough with help from our grad transfers.. and our player of the game will be Spann-Ford. 31-28 gophers. You heard it here first.
 

People are getting way too caught up in the weeds on this one. Ohio State will be the favorite and everyone outside of Minnesota (and even a lot of people in Minnesota) will expect them to win.

We absolutely can win this game if we play well and some things go our way. But nobody in their right mind should be down on the team if we go out, play well, but come up short in the end.

Ohio State may be breaking in some new players, but they are still one of the best programs in all of college football right now. They don't lose often these days so pulling the upset would be massive but there is zero shame in losing to a great team if you play well.
 

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