Actual chance at beating Ohio State?

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Fleck needs to have his Herb Brooks Miracle speech in the locker room before the game....and body surf after.
 

We have been slow starters under Fleck, I don't expect to win, it's a matter of being within a TD at the buzzer to give us some credibility going forward. Gosh I hope I'm wrong!
 

Plato said:
At the start of the FB season I again would like to inform one and all that the point spread is manipulated by the gambling concerns to have, as far as is possible, to have equal amounts of money bet on each team.
They do not care who wins, do not predict who will win but only are interested in making money from the amount they take out of each wager and having the losing betters pay exactly to the winners what the losing betters wagered.
That said, money is to be made best early in the season when the strengths and weaknesses of each team are not known to the majority of betters.
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Partly true, but the line is also a function of the sharp action versus the public, so when they set the line they are trying to be as "sharp" as the sharp money. OSU, ALA, MICH, ND, BYU.. those schools also have large fan bases who flop down cash on their squads no matter the line. So there is usually a little built in value to bet against those teams with large followings.
 

davev said:
We've won 7 times in history. I think our chances are less than slim.
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And two of those wins were in the 1800's. Edit, can't verify my memory with data, so that might not be correct. But I'm pretty sure that we won 2 of the first 3 games we played against them. So after a promising start, things have went south, deeply south, since then.
 
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I look at this as more of an X's and O's or strategy question.

What can or should the Gophers do to give themselves the best chance of winning?

In no particular order:
1. Get the lead. 7 pts nice. 10-pt lead better.
2. control time of possession. long clock-eating drives.
3. no empty possessions. can't afford 3-and-outs or multiple drives that end with no points.
4. limit OSU explosive plays. make them earn points. no 3-play, 1:15 drives.
5. Special teams must be at least good, and hopefully special. Cannot be bad.
6. Mo goes for at least 150+.
7. No turnovers.
8. Morgan must play smart - throw away ball to avoid sacks. take check-downs to RB or TE.
9. WR's must step up. Someone other than CRAB has to make a key catch.
10. D-line must hold its own
11. LB's must be solid. Hold the Edge. Hold the bleepin' edge.
12. DB's play as a unit. keep everything in front of you.
13. No weird PJ Time-outs.
14. Stay healthy
15. no bad penalties

Yeah, that is a long list. but that is what it will take IMHO to knock off an OSU.
 


This year, about 10-20% Ordinary years, more like 5-10%

Seems like Week 1 and bowl games are the highest variance of the season, which helps. PJF has a great track record with extra time to prepare -- never lost an opener or bowl game under him. The Gophers are uncommonly experienced. The team strength should be running and ball/clock control. Playing at home helps too.
 

Gophers1992 said:
You're telling me you would put money on 2019 Outback Bowl Auburn to beat 2021 week 1 OSU? They may have a new QB but Auburn had Bo Nix who is nothing special to say the least, and he didn't have the weapons that OSU will have on offense.
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Well considering it would be impossible to the the game it’s a ridiculous question. But generally good teams get better as the year goes by. So yeah. Auburn was a top 15 team. That auburn team would probably really cause some problems for an inexperienced out of sinc QB
 


I'm pretty shocked at the answers! So very many guys on this board think PJ walks on water. Yet, when PJ says in the winter and the spring, and the summer we are a really good football team ....you expect us to lose?
We have THE most experienced team we will ever have. Ohio State lost a number of big time contributors. We lost two. I believe by game time PJ will have his team convinced we are better than Ohio State and that he fully expects us to win.
I believe we will be ready.
PJ has all summer to focus on Ohio State. Michigan didn't go well....throw it out...the preparation opportunity is 180 degrees different. Think PJ preparing for Auburn with time.
I'd say if we are going to compete in the WEST it is a must win game in PJ's mind and he will approach as such. Burn the boats!!!!
Pretty confident we prevail. (Mo specifically needs to be healthy.) We have the linemen to create holes and creases to control the football and boom hit the slant for 6.
Gophers win!
 



alaska said:
I am a Gopher positive pumper, but I also realize its Ohio State and we are not at that level yet.....what are the chances we can beat them this year?
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We win 35-24 with Mo going for 3 TDS and 175 yards and vaulting into the Heisman talk.

Fleck leaves the next week to coach the Vikings!!

And oh yeah, I bookmarked this bad boy!!!
 


short ornery norwegian said:
I look at this as more of an X's and O's or strategy question.

What can or should the Gophers do to give themselves the best chance of winning?

In no particular order:
1. Get the lead. 7 pts nice. 10-pt lead better.
2. control time of possession. long clock-eating drives.
3. no empty possessions. can't afford 3-and-outs or multiple drives that end with no points.
4. limit OSU explosive plays. make them earn points. no 3-play, 1:15 drives.
5. Special teams must be at least good, and hopefully special. Cannot be bad.
6. Mo goes for at least 150+.
7. No turnovers.
8. Morgan must play smart - throw away ball to avoid sacks. take check-downs to RB or TE.
9. WR's must step up. Someone other than CRAB has to make a key catch.
10. D-line must hold its own
11. LB's must be solid. Hold the Edge. Hold the bleepin' edge.
12. DB's play as a unit. keep everything in front of you.
13. No weird PJ Time-outs.
14. Stay healthy
15. no bad penalties

Yeah, that is a long list. but that is what it will take IMHO to knock off an OSU.
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That is pretty much the formula for any win.
 




swelna said:
Meyer's Buckeye's dropped 4 games to unranked teams during his tenure. Day could be better at getting them ready for games, but there's still some chance that we could do it, how ever small.
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It’s also possible Day is just as good of an Xs and Os coach but isn’t as good of a program builder and the Meyer magic starts wearing off this year a la Larry Coker 2004-2006.

honestly we just don’t know with Day yet. But there are probably 75+ coaches who could’ve taken over Ohio state and won the big ten with that talent disparity
 


stuck_in_scony_go4_fan said:
Rattle the new qb early...
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This sounds like an obvious and would be nice thing to do.

Problem is, if they're mostly handing the ball off and getting 4,5,6 yards per carry behind their massive, talented OL and RB, and then hitting chunks of yards off play-action, bootleg dump offs to TE's, etc. .... he'll be plenty confident and that jersey will be fresh and clean.

Teeing off on 3rd and "everyone knows it's a pass", is where we can try to rattle/pressure him and pressure the blocking scheme.

Getting in the head of the OL on pass-pro, is a huge advantage, if you can pull it off.

They'll want to keep it simple. All kinds of things you can do to "F with them" and their passing scheme rules: 1) stunts and twists with the DL, 2) running multiple guys in the same gap, 3) mugging up 2 LB's in both A-gaps, etc.

Get them worried and confused, first game of the season jitters.
 



Some guy said:
No you don’t. You need to play really well. But one mistake doesn’t mean you’re done

MN beat auburn two seasons ago while giving up a kick return touchdown
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And your an idiot for compairing auburn to Ohio state.. auburn is nowhere near as good, as talented, nor as deep as ohio state
 

stuck_in_scony_go4_fan said:
And your an idiot for compairing auburn to Ohio state.. auburn is nowhere near as good, as talented, nor as deep as ohio state
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Auburn certainly had one of the best D-Lines in college ball that year, and with the game still on the line, this is what we did to them even with our depleted O-Line. Pure late-game power...

 

Block well and tackle well. Run the ball and grind the clock. Avoid penalties and turnovers.

Since these are Fleck's mantras for every game, no matter who the opponent is, we should have a chance to be successful in this one.

If the o-line can move people and make the running game go, we'll be in the game.
 



Do what michigan did to us. Sack the QB during the first 2 or 3 snaps. Morgan looked a bit shaken after that, especially since it les to a fumble and TD.

Do something similar to their new QB and we may be able to get in his head.
 

Taji34 said:
Do what michigan did to us. Sack the QB during the first 2 or 3 snaps. Morgan looked a bit shaken after that, especially since it les to a fumble and TD.

Do something similar to their new QB and we may be able to get in his head.
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Actually we blocked a punt and then scored a quick touchdown on Michigan right away, so I'm not sure we want OSU to start that way against us.
 

Gophers1992 said:
Actually we blocked a punt and then scored a quick touchdown on Michigan right away, so I'm not sure we want OSU to start that way against us.
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Ah right, it was right at the beginning of our second drive. My bad.
 

All the stars have to be aligned in the Gophers' favor. Play disciplined team football. Yes, it is possible.

PJ Fleck will get the Gophers all pumped up to run through brick walls.
 

Not to be a Debbie Downer, I just think we only win the first of 2 games this season we play against Ohio State.
 

Follow the Iowa formula from a few years ago. Get the early lead and you have doubt creep into the minds of tOSU.

Would it be an upset for the Gophers to win? Yeah, from an oddsmakers POV.

But Gophs should win this game given all the factors currently in play.

Aim high.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I look at this as more of an X's and O's or strategy question.

What can or should the Gophers do to give themselves the best chance of winning?

In no particular order:
1. Get the lead. 7 pts nice. 10-pt lead better.
2. control time of possession. long clock-eating drives.
3. no empty possessions. can't afford 3-and-outs or multiple drives that end with no points.
4. limit OSU explosive plays. make them earn points. no 3-play, 1:15 drives.
5. Special teams must be at least good, and hopefully special. Cannot be bad.
6. Mo goes for at least 150+.
7. No turnovers.
8. Morgan must play smart - throw away ball to avoid sacks. take check-downs to RB or TE.
9. WR's must step up. Someone other than CRAB has to make a key catch.
10. D-line must hold its own
11. LB's must be solid. Hold the Edge. Hold the bleepin' edge.
12. DB's play as a unit. keep everything in front of you.
13. No weird PJ Time-outs.
14. Stay healthy
15. no bad penalties

Yeah, that is a long list. but that is what it will take IMHO to knock off an OSU.
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Field position. Don’t let our special teams place us in a position in which all our successful TD drives must be 75-85 yards, while Ohio State’s TD drives need only be 50-60 yards. Special teams matter and can turn a good offensive and defensive effort into a loss.
 

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