9-2, 5-2 should be expected

[Seany]

The biggest problem for Gophers is going to be the run defense. It is really easy to say load up against the run and make Stave beat you, it is much harder to accomplish. White and Gordon are really, really good backs. There is often one guy unblocked in the hole and they make that guy miss quite often. It is also very dangerous to constantly bring the safeties so close to the line of scrimmage because if they pop through the first wave, they are gone.

That being said, the Gophers are playing far better than I thought they would be at this point, so completely dismissing the possibility of them winning would be silly.

This is a really good Badgers team. If the Gophers win, they will have definitely earned it.

Total agreement, Mister, and I always appreciate your take. It can become convoluted sometimes, what constitutes a 'troll', as opposed simply an intelligent human happens unfortunately root for the wrong team, but hey, we've each got our own afflictions to bear, don't we?

Anyhow, you're one of the good guys, and you are correct, if this win is to come, it will absolutely be both deserved and earned, as this is a really fricken good Sconnie team, and if not this year, then years hence and starting next, don't you feel it, as if it weren't just an inevitability somehow looming?

It's coming, brother, and your team will get theirs, and how I will weep to finally slay the beast and lay that sad chapter rest, forever.

 

[Seany]

And for such hope as this, thank God.

It lies blessed beyond measure.

And now, let's tear their world in two.

 

[Big Ten Mind]

Gonna look nice with that record. My question is why do most think there is not way MN can compete with Wisconsin in a couple weeks? Wisconsin has 2 losses, and is ranked in the high teens. MN is 25th and at home. This is the kind of game MN needs to expect to win. Going on record here my prediction is 28-24 MN.

Iowa dominated the Gophs at the line of scrimmage (both sides) and I suspect Bucky will do the same. Stave is nothing special however with their three (yes three) quality RB's and a legit o-line this doesn't look promising.

 

[maroonedinCA]

I don't see people saying that we are close in the rankings which is why it should be close. You are the one putting all the stock into the rankings. Subjective fans can look at the Gophers play this year at 8-2 and realize that there isn't as large a gap as you want to think. Four straight wins in somewhat convincing fashion. Wisconsin's best win came against a decent Iowa team. Nothing that really screams that they are an elite team. They are good and will be favored, but there is absolutely no reason to think that the Gophers won't be competitive and have a decent shot to win at home. Do you think that Wisconsin is really that much better than Wisconsin? Forget the rankings.

I think they are the best two loss team in the country. Their two losses are both away against ranked teams and one of those COULD have had a different outcome had the referees not thoroughly botched the call and in a sense really screwed the B1G as a whole. The remainder of their games haven't even been remotely close.

 

[Ron Johnson Super Fan]

You're comparing apples to oranges with the previous games. All of those teams were extremely flawed in some aspects of the game. According to Sagarin's most 'accurate' rankings the Badgers are ranked #6 in the nation which mean's they are pretty great. Your subjective determination of great or not great aren't backed up by anything other than gut feel (or the gut feel of others with the AP or Coaches poll).

Sagarin Ratings for previous 6 opponents:

Iowa: 40
Michigan: 54
Northwestern: 59
Nebraska: 50
Indiana: 58
Penn State: 66

Wisconsin: 6

Feel free to say "hey we beat the last 6 and we weren't supposed to" even though that last part is debatable; the fact of the matter is that this is a different ballgame than any of the previous 6 games. That's the only argument I'm making against people using any of the previous 4 games as justification that we're in the same ball park given that we're so closely ranked in one of the published opinion polls.

Basically by arguing that we weren't supposed to win the past 4 because of the rankings you site you're invalidating your argument that the Gophers should contend based on the fact that we're close in those same rankings currently. Which is it? Are the rankings you use to validate the fact that we 'shouldn't win' against the previous 4 crap because they were clearly wrong or are they right because the Gophers and Badgers are so closely ranked?

The point that (I think) people are trying to make is that your computer rankings said we would lose be double digits to Northwestern, Nebraska, and Indiana. We didn't. The computer doesn't know everything. Are we underdogs? Absolutely. But to say that we have no chance to win is ludicrous.

Also, if you're going to poke fun and people for not using their/there correctly you should know that the bolded word above should have been cite.

 

[maroonedinCA]

The point that (I think) people are trying to make is that your computer rankings said we would lose be double digits to Northwestern, Nebraska, and Indiana. We didn't. The computer doesn't know everything. Are we underdogs? Absolutely. But to say that we have no chance to win is ludicrous.

Also, if you're going to poke fun and people for not using their/there correctly you should know that the bolded word above should have been cite.

Good point about the cite.

The computers take several weeks to really get accurate I believe. And I didn't say we had no chance. Again, the point that I'm arguing against is people saying we SHOULD win or COULD win 'because we're closely ranked and at home'. The only thing that's true about that statement is that we're at home. Read my posts, that's all I've been trying to say.

Edited to add: Additionally, based on the computer rankings this is far and away our most difficult test and not really in the same ballpark as the previous games.

 

[bigdsrip]

All I will say is that when I watched the U play Iowa I saw one team dominate the LOS and control the game on their way to an easy road victory. When I watched UW play Iowa I saw the same thing, except Iowa was the team getting dominated. When UW played NW the game was a laugher where NW couldn't stop UW or do anything on O. When NW played the U it was a close game that turned on big plays. Obviously the transitive property is worthless but the tendencies are real. When the U plays the games are close and a few breaks here or there have swung it into the W column. Even in the wins Minnesota has not looked like a vastly superior team but rather one that is well coached and makes plays when it had to. UW has steamrolled everybody except OSU and ASU (FYI there are six teams in the NCAA with top 20 Os and Ds and amongst those 6 are; OSU ASU and UW) . Even in those losses it has looked like there was no real drop off between the teams. In the wins there has been no doubt about who the better team was.

I just don't see this being close. Minnesota does the exact same thing UW does but with less talent across the board. The last time the U played a physical downhill running team with a stout D people here where ready to fire Kill and write off the season. You played 4 spread/soft teams in a row and were able to pull them all out. Definitely a sign of improvement which can hopefully be built on next year but reality is going to come crashing back in the next two. Minnesota just does not match up well with UW at any position group. You struggle to stop the run which really says it all, it is just not happening this year.

I say this because I have seen a HUGE surge in football chatter around the campus in the last two weeks. People are starting to notice and care again, but I have also seen some ridiculous overestimations of the U's standing in the NCAA world. I am afraid that (especially if Gameday comes) all the good will and fan following that has been built up will be wasted when UW rolls them yet again. I feel like that is where we are heading next week. People are buying in to the hype a year early. This years team is a clear improvement on the last few years but they are still far from a legit top 20-25 team. Because UW is so underrated a lot of casual fans are going to tune into this game expecting a close fight with a decent shot at a Gopher win, and they will come away thinking not much has changed in the program so why bother getting tickets/apparel/etc. I think that is why it is good that people understand the stats and where these teams rank in relation to each other as well as the teams they have faced. It is great that this game matters again but a healthy dose of caution may do wonders for the long term growth of the program.

 

[killme]

Iowa dominated the Gophs at the line of scrimmage (both sides) and I suspect Bucky will do the same. Stave is nothing special however with their three (yes three) quality RB's and a legit o-line this doesn't look promising.

It's unfortunate a teaching moment had to come from a loss to a hated rival, but perhaps in the long run the message will stick. It did appear we were man-handled by Iowa, but I was relieved when the coaches said it was a breakdown in technique, getting caught up in the hype. Since then the team appears much more focused on technique and assignments and success has followed. I don't think Iowa's OL and DL are that much superior to the last 5 opponents we've played. That being said, I think Wisc is going to be a test for us up front. We'll need to keep mistakes to a minimum and execute when our big plays present themselves.

 

[Ole]

We will be dogs again in this one, a bad matchup for us, and a likely L.
BUT

It's the axe game, and any gopher worth his salt is not going to lay down for this one.
I see wisky as a perfect example of stability trumping talent, they've been masterful at weathering the college football storm while other, better programs have up and down years, scandals, etc etc. That is and always will be a credit to Barry Alverez, who has had his hand in the program's most intimate details since his arrival.

They are not underrated, they are who they are. They will run the ball effeciently, they'll throw the play action bomb, and they'll be solid on D.
They don't F up very often.

They have 3 difference makers in Gordon, Borland, and Abberderis. The rest of their team is nothing special, solid yes, but certainly not impressively more talented than any other respectable B1G team.
They're WR core and secondary is worse than the Gophers as a whole, their running game and front 7 are better as a whole.
They also now have a coach who isn't a dumbass.

Bottom line is we'll be 10 point dogs going in, we will certainly need to tackle better at the LOS, and we'll need probably 2 turnovers or bounces to go our way to make it a game. I see us trying to attack their secondary and hold serve on D as much as possible.
Any wisky fan expecting a 30 pt blowout is going to be wrong, any gopher fan expecting us to roll is too. It'll be a 3-7 pt win for us or a 3-10pt L, just like it usually is in Minneapolis.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

If Stats and Sagarin Ratings decided every game, there would be no upsets.

But, we know that upsets do exist.

Therefore, Stats and sagarin Ratings are NOT a perfect predictor of results.

Yes, on paper WI is favored - but they don't play on paper. A fumble, an interception, a penalty at the wrong time, a blocked punt - games can turn on 1 play.

And, if you support a team, (any team), I would be disappointed if you came out before the game and said "we have no chance to win." there is always a chance - that's what makes sports interesting.

 

[stocker08]

I think they are the best two loss team in the country. Their two losses are both away against ranked teams and one of those COULD have had a different outcome had the referees not thoroughly botched the call and in a sense really screwed the B1G as a whole. The remainder of their games haven't even been remotely close.

It's possible. But that is one of the issues. Wisconsin has played close with ASU and OSU, but have they beaten a really good team this year? Iowa and BYU are both good wins, but the Gophers have been better these past few weeks. Also, considering it is a home game, that swings some favor in our direction. I'm not saying that we should win, but the Gophers have proven that they are probably in the top half of the Big Ten right now. Wisconsin is not some kind of elite, unbeatable team by any measure. OSU is the only team that I would consider elite.

 

[jaymil]

Wisconsin is a good team and a tough matchup for the Gophers. I don't think people realize how good Wisconsin's defense is. It's very good, especially their front 7. To score points in this game we'll need to throw the ball, Nelson will have to be near-perfect and the WR's can't drop passes. We can't abandon the run, but I expect yards will be tough to come by for Cobb, Kirkwood, and Nelson/Leidner. Defensively, we'll have to load up the box and try to force Stave to beat us. I like our corners in man-to-man coverage so I think we have a shot at being somewhat effective against their offense. We just can't let their RB's get on a roll and break multiple big runs. Make their offense work up and down the field for points. If we win, I see it being a 27-24 type of game with a few breaks going our way.

 

[maroonedinCA]

It's possible. But that is one of the issues. Wisconsin has played close with ASU and OSU, but have they beaten a really good team this year? Iowa and BYU are both good wins, but the Gophers have been better these past few weeks. Also, considering it is a home game, that swings some favor in our direction. I'm not saying that we should win, but the Gophers have proven that they are probably in the top half of the Big Ten right now. Wisconsin is not some kind of elite, unbeatable team by any measure. OSU is the only team that I would consider elite.

Fair enough, I respect that opinion and I envy your optimism. But, I honestly believe that Wisconsin is a top 10 team right now which in my mind makes them elite. We'll see in 9 or so days!

 

[Ole]

Fair enough, I respect that opinion and I envy your optimism. But, I honestly believe that Wisconsin is a top 10 team right now which in my mind makes them elite. We'll see in 9 or so days!

Sorry, that's ridiculous. Top 10!?
They're not even a top 2 team in the B1G, much less a top 10 team overall.
Best 2 loss squad? Um Texas A&M, LSU, ASU, UCLA.
They're solid, and have above average parts of their squad, kudos, but they are not a top 10 team.

 

[Unregistered User]

Sorry, that's ridiculous. Top 10!?
They're not even a top 2 team in the B1G, much less a top 10 team overall.
Best 2 loss squad? Um Texas A&M, LSU, ASU, UCLA.
They're solid, and have above average parts of their squad, kudos, but they are not a top 10 team.

LSU has 3 losses.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

Sorry, that's ridiculous. Top 10!?
They're not even a top 2 team in the B1G, much less a top 10 team overall.
Best 2 loss squad? Um Texas A&M, LSU, ASU, UCLA.
They're solid, and have above average parts of their squad, kudos, but they are not a top 10 team.

Who is the 2nd best B1G team? Michigan State? Please. Wisconsin would beat them 21-3.

 

[positively4thstreet]

Fair enough, I respect that opinion and I envy your optimism. But, I honestly believe that Wisconsin is a top 10 team right now which in my mind makes them elite. We'll see in 9 or so days!

Are you high?

 

[maroonedinCA]

Sorry, that's ridiculous. Top 10!?
They're not even a top 2 team in the B1G, much less a top 10 team overall.
Best 2 loss squad? Um Texas A&M, LSU, ASU, UCLA.
They're solid, and have above average parts of their squad, kudos, but they are not a top 10 team.

Agree to disagree.

A&M has no defense, LSU has three losses, ASU was gifted a game while at home, still don't trust UCLA at all.

No I am not high, just think they're a damn good squad and as I've been saying all week Sagarin agrees for what it's worth.

 

[positively4thstreet]

Agree to disagree.

A&M has no defense, LSU has three losses, ASU was gifted a game while at home, still don't trust UCLA at all.

No I am not high, just think they're a damn good squad and as I've been saying all week Sagarin agrees for what it's worth.

Hasn't your kicker been benched since this happened? It's still a "gimme?"

 

[GVBadger]

Sorry, that's ridiculous. Top 10!?
They're not even a top 2 team in the B1G, much less a top 10 team overall.
Best 2 loss squad? Um Texas A&M, LSU, ASU, UCLA.
They're solid, and have above average parts of their squad, kudos, but they are not a top 10 team.

Sagarin thinks they are a top ten team. Not the be all end all, but he does have one of the more respected rankings out there.

The Gophers are going to be 12-14 point dogs at home against the Badgers according to the numbers. Someone must think they are pretty good.

Like I said, the Badgers are a very good team. If the Gophers win, they certainly will have earned it.

 

[gopherbadgerman]

Wisconsin has gotten more love in this thread than the entire year. Wisconsin is good, if they were great they would not have lost to ASU. Maybe to OSU, but not ASU. I just have a feeling that MN is going to pull it off. And for the record, I think Wisconsin is better than MSU, but I think MN loses to MSU next week on the road after upsetting the Badgers. But I would be happy with 1-1 to end the year. Gator Bowl or the BW3 Bowl would be a given with one more win I think.

 

[maroonedinCA]

Hasn't your kicker been benched since this happened? It's still a "gimme?"

Just because I defend them and take an objective view does not make me a fan of their team. As a fan of the B1G I want us to be represented well and Wisconsin was jobbed of an opportunity to win that game. A 1-loss UW team certainly makes for a more appealing Gopher win in my opinion.

 

[Ole]

Sagarin thinks they are a top ten team. Not the be all end all, but he does have one of the more respected rankings out there.

The Gophers are going to be 12-14 point dogs at home against the Badgers according to the numbers. Someone must think they are pretty good.

Like I said, the Badgers are a very good team. If the Gophers win, they certainly will have earned it.

You sound like an NDSU fan with that Sagarin crap.
Stats and rankings are cute, but they're in constant flux until the season ends and really can't predict some of the most important parts of football(injuries, momentum, intangibles, weather, off field distractions)
Look, I'm saying we'll be 10-14 pt vegas dogs, I just don't think we're going to be served up to a 30 pt loss. We beat 3 double digit spreads in a row to win the first 3 games of this streak.
Someone didn't think we were worth crap then, we proved them wrong.

 

[Ole]

Just because I defend them and take an objective view does not make me a fan of their team. As a fan of the B1G I want us to be represented well and Wisconsin was jobbed of an opportunity to win that game. A 1-loss UW team certainly makes for a more appealing Gopher win in my opinion.

I warmed my heart to watch that game end.
It should have warmed yours too if you're a gopher fan.

 

[maroonedinCA]

I warmed my heart to watch that game end.
It should have warmed yours too if you're a gopher fan.

Meh, not really. If we need to sink low enough to get enjoyment out of a rivals struggles what does that really say about us? I know plenty of Badger fans and they didn't relish the fact that we were doing poorly and many of them are extremely excited about the 23rd as we seem to be turning the corner. Different perspectives I suppose.

 

[positively4thstreet]

Just because I defend them and take an objective view does not make me a fan of their team. As a fan of the B1G I want us to be represented well and Wisconsin was jobbed of an opportunity to win that game. A 1-loss UW team certainly makes for a more appealing Gopher win in my opinion.

You outed yourself with the "Top 10" comment, but you made it pretty far before getting exposed, which is I guess worth something.

 

[maroonedinCA]

You outed yourself with the "Top 10" comment, but you made it pretty far before getting exposed, which is I guess worth something.

Seriously, what is wrong with you? Are you that insecure that you go around trying to sniff out people that don't agree with you 100% of the time and as soon as you find one you immediately jump to 'traitor'. Seriously, get a life.

 

[GVBadger]

You sound like an NDSU fan with that Sagarin crap.
Stats and rankings are cute, but they're in constant flux until the season ends and really can't predict some of the most important parts of football(injuries, momentum, intangibles, weather, off field distractions)
Look, I'm saying we'll be 10-14 pt vegas dogs, I just don't think we're going to be served up to a 30 pt loss. We beat 3 double digit spreads in a row to win the first 3 games of this streak.
Someone didn't think we were worth crap then, we proved them wrong.

Everything you say is true. The Gophers deserve a lot of credit for being 8-2 right now. They certainly are playing with a lot of confidence. Are they playing with enough confidence to overcome being a 12-14 point dog against a really good team? That's why they play the games. Will be fun to find out.

 

[Formo]

Going by record alone is foolish. Who did the teams play previously? How have they looked in defeat and in victory? What are the relative strengths and weaknesses and how do those line up vis-a-vis the opponent?

Other than being at home and having the same record most here recognizes that Becky has many advantages and few disadvantages over the Gophers.

You can't 'expect to win' this game yet, it's premature for where our program is. We may/can get there eventually but it would be wise to temper some emotion for the time being. Not trying to necessarily quell your excitement but shelter you from potential disappointment.

Exactly.

I'll simply just be happy if we compete. The Gophers haven't earned my expectations of a win over Wisky after the past, oh say.. NINE YEARS.

 

[ToddisGahd]

You outed yourself with the "Top 10" comment, but you made it pretty far before getting exposed, which is I guess worth something.

FWIW, Kirk Herbstreit said the same thing. So did Brad Edwards. It's not like saying Wisconsin is a top 10 team is outrageous. I think we (yes, I'm a Badger fan) are closer to the 12-15 range. I think the Gophers are in the 27-35 range. Regardless, it's been great to see the Gophs turn it around. I live in uptown and I've seen more Gopher fans walking around in their colors the past 3 Saturdays than I have in the last year and half combined.

I do think we are a horrible matchup for you guys though, and that the teams are probably closer than the spread/score would indicate simply because of matchups.

Also BYU is better than Iowa, but Iowa might be a better win simply because the game was played on the road. I think a win at Minnesota would be behind both of those wins in terms of quality. @NW was a good win at the time, before NW completely fell apart and lost their whole offense due to injuries. Crazy how that team just collapsed.