9-2, 5-2 should be expected

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maroonedinCA said:
Because I don't get warm and fuzzy over a bunch of "CAN DO ATTITUDE" which is the talk of losers I'm a troll and a Badger fan?

Fine then, here's how the normal write up is on here:

The Badgers seem to have every edge but OUR BOYs are HUNGRY! OUR COACHES know a good GAMEPLAN when they see one. Boy I can't WAIT til our stadium ROCKS and INTIMIDATES.

If you want to lead your life with such rah-rah attitude so be it but at least don't try to mask it in facts like "we're closely ranked in the AP poll, ergo we should beat them because we're at home."
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What you fail to acknowledge is that these stats don't play the game. Individual game plans greatly affect what the predictions say. Some teams like OSU and Wisconsin continue to play offense for a full 60 minutes. Gophers have been working to build and maintain a lead through clock control and a fairly conservative game plan.

Do I think that Wisconsin is the better team. Of course. However, the Gophers have been improving every week and a victory shouldn't be a shock after these past few weeks.
 

stocker08 said:
What you fail to acknowledge is that these stats don't play the game. Individual game plans greatly affect what the predictions say. Some teams like OSU and Wisconsin continue to play offense for a full 60 minutes. Gophers have been working to build and maintain a lead through clock control and a fairly conservative game plan.

Do I think that Wisconsin is the better team. Of course. However, the Gophers have been improving every week and a victory shouldn't be a shock after these past few weeks.
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Stats are the greatest indication of how the game has been played to date, and thus the best means by which to predict the success or failure in an upcoming game. It's sentiments like the one displayed above (much like the Joe Morgan types in baseball that talk about a player's grittiness) that drive me nuts.

I don't understand, we've played 60 minutes of offense just like every team in the nation does. Is the Wisconsin offense somehow more diverse than ours? I wouldn't think so. Are the Wisconsin players better than ours? I would say most definitely and that is backed up by nearly every statistical measure.

Now can that talent difference change some day? Absolutely it can and I'm really hopeful it will. But, to base the likelihood of us winning on fluff while disparaging me for simply bringing up valid references to stats that show our chances are very slim doesn't add up to me.
 

maroonedinCA said:
Stats are the greatest indication of how the game has been played to date, and thus the best means by which to predict the success or failure in an upcoming game.
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should we even bother to show up? The stats say we don't have a chance against wisconsin, just like they did the last 4 weeks.

Stats tell part of the story but are not the end all. What do you say about a team the keeps winning even though there have been statistical disadvantages? Sajarin still has Nebraska ranked ahead of the gophers, but everyone at that game knew who the better team was that day.
 

maroonedinCA said:
Stats are the greatest indication of how the game has been played to date, and thus the best means by which to predict the success or failure in an upcoming game. It's sentiments like the one displayed above (much like the Joe Morgan types in baseball that talk about a player's grittiness) that drive me nuts.

I don't understand, we've played 60 minutes of offense just like every team in the nation does. Is the Wisconsin offense somehow more diverse than ours? I wouldn't think so. Are the Wisconsin players better than ours? I would say most definitely and that is backed up by nearly every statistical measure.

Now can that talent difference change some day? Absolutely it can and I'm really hopeful it will. But, to base the likelihood of us winning on fluff while disparaging me for simply bringing up valid references to stats that show our chances are very slim doesn't add up to me.
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Stats don't paint the entire picture. The only team with less total yards per game on offense than the Gophers is Purdue. Wisconsin played arguably the worst two Big Ten teams thus far in Illinois and Purdue. On defense we land right near the center on both yards and points given up per game. Would you say that the stats favored us against NW, Nebraska, Indiana, and Penn State?

Like I said......season stats don't always tell the whole story. Do they give an indication of what to expect? Yeah, probably. But with the number of players that get into the game, the scheduled opponents, and the team makeup/gameplans, variability exists quite a bit more in football than basketball or baseball. How much stock do you put into TOP? MSU is the only team in the Big Ten with a higher average.
 



Where's Dr. Don to ref this pissing match? Back to the topic at hand.

I think we have a better chance than 5% to win this game. I agree Wisky will, and should, be favored. But who exactly have they beaten that we should be terrified of them? Their best win was against Iowa, and that was a barn burner until the 4th quarter. Kill and company will find what it takes to exploit them on both sides of the ball, and give our boys the best chance to win the game.

It will just be up to the boys to prove to the Big Ten that we belong in the upper echelon of the conference this season.
 

GopherinPhilly said:
We lose this game 95 times out of 100 played at TCF and 99 out of 100 in Madison. This year. Next year we should be better as our lines mature. I see 2015 as a legitimate shot at being favored at home against Becky and keeping the Axe after we steal a game from them in 2014 on our way to our Cinderella run to the Rose Bowl!
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i was looking at the Wisconsin depth chart and seeing who the seniors are and how many they will lose and they will lose a lot particularly in the front 7, they will graduate there entire starting D-line who starts 4 seniors and there 2 best linebackers, one member of their secondary, there 2 best WR-TEs in Abrederis and Jacob Pedersen and James White, Melvin Gordon III is also a projected 1-2 round pick so he could also leave as well, and they lose 1 starter on the O-line, Corey Clement who will probably be the starting RB next year was a 4 star and will be a sophmore next year will probably be pretty decent, he has had two 100 yard games in the OOC but it is still nice that wiscy will be losing there top 2 rushers, Stave their QB is only a sophmore this year and will be around for a while, so overall i think we beat them next year, i think we will run the ball well against them with them losing 6 starters on their front 7 and we return all 5 starters on our O-line and all of our RBs, i think they will be pretty good on O but not great next year and we return 7 starters so i think we will be okay, so overall i think we beat Wiscy next year.
 

GameDay said:
Badgers have an insane run game. Gophers have a hard time stopping the run. That doesn't matchup well for the Gophers. But who knows, maybe the significance of the game alone pushes the Gophers through and we could end up winning! I certainly am looking forward to watching how the game plays out, because it could go several different ways.
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Gophers definitely the underdogs - Badgers would be 9-1 but for the refs screwing up in Tempe, and their one loss a competitive game vs. Ohio State. But this is college ball, so emotion enters the picture. Would be a big upset, but Gophers, with some luck, might pull it off.
 



The biggest problem for Gophers is going to be the run defense. It is really easy to say load up against the run and make Stave beat you, it is much harder to accomplish. White and Gordon are really, really good backs. There is often one guy unblocked in the hole and they make that guy miss quite often. It is also very dangerous to constantly bring the safeties so close to the line of scrimmage because if they pop through the first wave, they are gone.

That being said, the Gophers are playing far better than I thought they would be at this point, so completely dismissing the possibility of them winning would be silly.

This is a really good Badgers team. If the Gophers win, they will have definitely earned it.
 


maroonedinCA said:
Not trying to hammer but just pointing out the factual inaccuracies when people say 'we have a great chance, look how closely we're ranked'. We're not that closely ranked if you go by actual proven models and because of that we don't have a great chance. Posters that are building their arguments around our 'close ranking' as a justification are giving false hope.

Also, an ellipsis is three dots, not four, so if you're going to use them sarcastically do it correctly.
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Yes, but if we took those at face value the Gophs would be 0-6 in conference right now.

Not that I dont agree that MN has every right to be an underdog in the game, I am saying that this is not a "great" wisconsin team, and if MN wants to be at that level, this is a game that you should expect to win (as a Gopher fan).
 

gopherbadgerman said:
You have? Here I go...1998 graduate of U of M. Multiple family members and friends at UW. Prefer gophs over badgers but am a fan of both. For that reason I am a troll. I will be cheering for the gophers on the the 23rd.
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You can't be a "fan of both". A big part of bring a Gopher fan is hating all things Wisconsin and Iowa. Maybe you could also try to convince us that the Pope is pro-choice too?
 



gopherbadgerman said:
Yes, but if we took those at face value the Gophs would be 0-6 in conference right now.

Not that I dont agree that MN has every right to be an underdog in the game, I am saying that this is not a "great" wisconsin team, and if MN wants to be at that level, this is a game that you should expect to win (as a Gopher fan).
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You're comparing apples to oranges with the previous games. All of those teams were extremely flawed in some aspects of the game. According to Sagarin's most 'accurate' rankings the Badgers are ranked #6 in the nation which mean's they are pretty great. Your subjective determination of great or not great aren't backed up by anything other than gut feel (or the gut feel of others with the AP or Coaches poll).

Sagarin Ratings for previous 6 opponents:

Iowa: 40
Michigan: 54
Northwestern: 59
Nebraska: 50
Indiana: 58
Penn State: 66

Wisconsin: 6

Feel free to say "hey we beat the last 6 and we weren't supposed to" even though that last part is debatable; the fact of the matter is that this is a different ballgame than any of the previous 6 games. That's the only argument I'm making against people using any of the previous 4 games as justification that we're in the same ball park given that we're so closely ranked in one of the published opinion polls.

Basically by arguing that we weren't supposed to win the past 4 because of the rankings you site you're invalidating your argument that the Gophers should contend based on the fact that we're close in those same rankings currently. Which is it? Are the rankings you use to validate the fact that we 'shouldn't win' against the previous 4 crap because they were clearly wrong or are they right because the Gophers and Badgers are so closely ranked?
 

kellyleeks said:
You can't be a "fan of both". A big part of bring a Gopher fan is hating all things Wisconsin and Iowa. Maybe you could also try to convince us that the Pope is pro-choice too?
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I can be whatever I want to be, not for you to decide, but thanks for the input. Cheering for my Gophers next weekend. I'll be at the game with my Maroon and Gold on hopefully storming the field. Section 238 Row 7 seats 4-7 if you want to come over for a beer! It will be great!
I doubt the Pope is Pro-Choice. But I am a Catholic and I am Pro-Choice. Just not as a form of birth control.
 

maroonedinCA said:
You're comparing apples to oranges with the previous games. All of those teams were extremely flawed in some aspects of the game. According to Sagarin's most 'accurate' rankings the Badgers are ranked #8 in the nation which mean's they are pretty great. Your subjective determination of great or not great aren't backed up by anything other than gut feel (or the gut feel of others with the AP or Coaches poll).

Sagarin Ratings for previous 6 opponents:

Iowa: 40
Michigan: 54
Northwestern: 59
Nebraska: 50
Indiana: 58
Penn State: 66

Wisconsin: 6

Feel free to say "hey we beat the last 6 and we weren't supposed to" even though that last part is debatable; the fact of the matter is that this is a different ballgame than any of the previous 6 games. That's the only argument I'm making against people using any of the previous 4 games as justification that we're in the same ball park given that we're so closely ranked in one of the published opinion polls.
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Your numbers are really sound. And I am happy you spent 34 hours this past week looking up stats. You totally blew my theory out of the water, props to you for that. I still say MN wins the game. I would guess in the predictions segment you will guess the final to be about 84-12 based on these numbers...:)

Just having a little fun...I know the numbers say Wisky is way better, but sometimes there is a little thing called "magic" that numbers just dont account for, and this season is starting to feel magical...
 

maroonedinCA said:
Because I don't get warm and fuzzy over a bunch of "CAN DO ATTITUDE" which is the talk of losers
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How is "can do attitude" the talk of losers? How is believing we have a chance to win the talk of losers? You are basically saying "we are statistically worse so we will lose." THAT is the talk of losers. "They are higher in Sagarin so let's roll over and die" appears to be the point you are trying to make. Nobody is disagreeing that we're statistically worse. People are saying that elements such as small sample size, variability of opponents, week to week improvement, and randomness inherent in college football are much larger factors here than you're giving credit for.

As for my personal opinion...well I have to admit I'm not feeling great about this one. I think it's an awful game for us matchup wise. However, I do know that "any given Saturday" rings very true many times each year in this game. Hoping this is one of those times!
 

gopherbadgerman said:
Your numbers are really sound. And I am happy you spent 34 hours this past week looking up stats. You totally blew my theory out of the water, props to you for that. I still say MN wins the game. I would guess in the predictions segment you will guess the final to be about 84-12 based on these numbers...:)

Just having a little fun...I know the numbers say Wisky is way better, but sometimes there is a little thing called "magic" that numbers just dont account for, and this season is starting to feel magical...
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It's called Google and took me a little under 15 seconds to find. No doubt luck plays a lot in the final score of some games but there's a reason why sabermetricians and other stat heads are taking over the sports world. Things like 'gut feelings' and intangible things like grit and magic aren't worth tying your cart to in most instances.
 

fryguy22 said:
How is "can do attitude" the talk of losers? How is believing we have a chance to win the talk of losers? You are basically saying "we are statistically worse so we will lose." THAT is the talk of losers. "They are higher in Sagarin so let's roll over and die" appears to be the point you are trying to make. Nobody is disagreeing that we're statistically worse. People are saying that elements such as small sample size, variability of opponents, week to week improvement, and randomness inherent in college football are much larger factors here than you're giving credit for.

As for my personal opinion...well I have to admit I'm not feeling great about this one. I think it's an awful game for us matchup wise. However, I do know that "any given Saturday" rings very true many times each year in this game. Hoping this is one of those times!
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That's actually absolutely true and those were the wrong choice of words on my part. My biggest complaint is simple proclamations that "hey we're close in this or that ranking and at home so we SHOULD win this game" when those ranking they cite are inherently flawed. Additionally, when people say things like "we've got all the momentum" or "I trust our coaches will game plan for them" and therefore we should win this game.

By no measure SHOULD we win this game. Zilch. Of course I want our team to win this game but never would I use the words "they should win this game". We're just not there yet.
 

maroonedinCA said:
It's called Google and took me a little under 15 seconds to find. No doubt luck plays a lot in the final score of some games but there's a reason why sabermetricians and other stat heads are taking over the sports world. Things like 'gut feelings' and intangible things like grit and magic aren't worth tying your cart to in most instances.
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Try telling that to Arragon and Gandalf;)
 

I love the annual game of Trojan Horse. "I'm going to sign up with a U of M name, I'm going to say 'we' when talking about the Gophers and I'm going to reel in those Gopherhole losers and mock and ridicule them mercilessly when the Badgers win. Oh man, is this going to be sweet. They'll never know the joy that one can attain by boasting about the results of an athletic contest that they've had absolutely nothing to do with. On Wisconsin!"
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
I love the annual game of Trojan Horse. "I'm going to sign up with a U of M name, I'm going to say 'we' when talking about the Gophers and I'm going to reel in those Gopherhole losers and mock and ridicule them mercilessly when the Badgers win. Oh man, is this going to be sweet. They'll never know the joy that one can attain by boasting about the results of an athletic contest that they've had absolutely nothing to do with. On Wisconsin!"
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Want to meet up on the 23rd and compare UofM degrees?
 

maroonedinCA said:
Want to meet up on the 23rd and compare UofM degrees?
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Im in. I have a bachelor's of science from the college of education and human development. Ill be at stubs before the game! Let's all meet and have a beer. Ill buy first round!
 

die hard gopher said:
i was looking at the Wisconsin depth chart and seeing who the seniors are and how many they will lose and they will lose a lot particularly in the front 7, they will graduate there entire starting D-line who starts 4 seniors and there 2 best linebackers, one member of their secondary, there 2 best WR-TEs in Abrederis and Jacob Pedersen and James White, Melvin Gordon III is also a projected 1-2 round pick so he could also leave as well, and they lose 1 starter on the O-line, Corey Clement who will probably be the starting RB next year was a 4 star and will be a sophmore next year will probably be pretty decent, he has had two 100 yard games in the OOC but it is still nice that wiscy will be losing there top 2 rushers, Stave their QB is only a sophmore this year and will be around for a while, so overall i think we beat them next year, i think we will run the ball well against them with them losing 6 starters on their front 7 and we return all 5 starters on our O-line and all of our RBs, i think they will be pretty good on O but not great next year and we return 7 starters so i think we will be okay, so overall i think we beat Wiscy next year.
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Impressive all1sentence!
 

FreakyDeke said:
Impressive all1sentence!
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Even more so when the poster became aware of the difference between there and their in their last opportunity.

BTW, they do lose a lot next year. Not sure Gordon goes or not but it certainly wouldn't hurt.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
Im in. I have a bachelor's of science from the college of education and human development. Ill be at stubs before the game! Let's all meet and have a beer. Ill buy first round!
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I actually really like you, you seem like a good, jovial person. Carlson grad here and I'll be tailgating in the Maroon lot. Feel free to stop by. White Ford Explorer with a flag if that helps.
 

I didn't read the whole thread - just a good portion of the first page. It sounds like many have already stated my thoughts. It is a rivalry game, so the game has greater propensity to be a 'strange' outcome. That said, I will be happy to keep the game within two scores. I expect somewhere in the 14 to 20 point loss category. If we win, I'll be as happy as anyone here (and happier than your typical fan), I just don't see it happening this year.

To those tailgating - have an extra beverage for me. I'd give.. well, contemplate giving, body parts to be there.
 

maroonedinCA said:
You're comparing apples to oranges with the previous games. All of those teams were extremely flawed in some aspects of the game. According to Sagarin's most 'accurate' rankings the Badgers are ranked #6 in the nation which mean's they are pretty great. Your subjective determination of great or not great aren't backed up by anything other than gut feel (or the gut feel of others with the AP or Coaches poll).

Sagarin Ratings for previous 6 opponents:

Iowa: 40
Michigan: 54
Northwestern: 59
Nebraska: 50
Indiana: 58
Penn State: 66

Wisconsin: 6

Feel free to say "hey we beat the last 6 and we weren't supposed to" even though that last part is debatable; the fact of the matter is that this is a different ballgame than any of the previous 6 games. That's the only argument I'm making against people using any of the previous 4 games as justification that we're in the same ball park given that we're so closely ranked in one of the published opinion polls.

Basically by arguing that we weren't supposed to win the past 4 because of the rankings you site you're invalidating your argument that the Gophers should contend based on the fact that we're close in those same rankings currently. Which is it? Are the rankings you use to validate the fact that we 'shouldn't win' against the previous 4 crap because they were clearly wrong or are they right because the Gophers and Badgers are so closely ranked?
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I don't see people saying that we are close in the rankings which is why it should be close. You are the one putting all the stock into the rankings. Subjective fans can look at the Gophers play this year at 8-2 and realize that there isn't as large a gap as you want to think. Four straight wins in somewhat convincing fashion. Wisconsin's best win came against a decent Iowa team. Nothing that really screams that they are an elite team. They are good and will be favored, but there is absolutely no reason to think that the Gophers won't be competitive and have a decent shot to win at home. Do you think that Wisconsin is really that much better than Wisconsin? Forget the rankings.
 

stocker08 said:
I don't see people saying that we are close in the rankings which is why it should be close. You are the one putting all the stock into the rankings. Subjective fans can look at the Gophers play this year at 8-2 and realize that there isn't as large a gap as you want to think. Four straight wins in somewhat convincing fashion. Wisconsin's best win came against a decent Iowa team. Nothing that really screams that they are an elite team. They are good and will be favored, but there is absolutely no reason to think that the Gophers won't be competitive and have a decent shot to win at home. Do you think that Wisconsin is really that much better than Wisconsin? Forget the rankings.
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So far 79 percent of poll voters are picking mn to win! Out of 472 votes that's a good sample size
 

maroonedinCA said:
I actually really like you, you seem like a good, jovial person. Carlson grad here and I'll be tailgating in the Maroon lot. Feel free to stop by. White Ford Explorer with a flag if that helps.
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I'm in. I'll try to find you. I'd describe myself but my pic is on the website. Maybe Kelley leaks and madtowngopher will join us.
 

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