2024 Bowl Projections Tracker

Is Duke the home team in this scenario?
Duke has such a small fanbase when it comes to football, and even the casual Tar Heel fan will not support Duke any more than Gopher fans would support their big rivals. The Gophers could still bring more fans to Charlotte in this case.
 

Duke has such a small fanbase when it comes to football. The Gophers could still bring more fans to Charlotte in this case.
My intended joke was Duke should be the home team, if playing in the Dukes Mayo Bowl 😉
 

Goal #1 is to avoid a baseball stadium with that useless turf, any baseball stadium. I would throw up in my mouth a little if the Gophers get pushed all the way down to the pinstripe bowl AGAIN.
To be honest not sure it would be getting pushed down aside from one team (Nebraska)
Illinois 2 games clear
Iowa one game clear won head to head
Michigan and Rutgers same overall record won head to head
Nebraska 6-6
Nebraska and Minnesota should go to the bottom two bowls…which I think are rate and pinstripe
 

To be honest not sure it would be getting pushed down aside from one team (Nebraska)
Illinois 2 games clear
Iowa one game clear won head to head
Michigan and Rutgers same overall record won head to head
Nebraska 6-6
Nebraska and Minnesota should go to the bottom two bowls…which I think are rate and pinstripe
I think, and I may be wrong, but think bowls would rather have PJ and Gopher fans than, for sure Rutgers and Nebraska was below us overall and 2 games in BIG. Still think we do no worse than Duke's.
 

I think, and I may be wrong, but think bowls would rather have PJ and Gopher fans than, for sure Rutgers and Nebraska was below us overall and 2 games in BIG. Still think we do no worse than Duke's.
I agree
I’m just saying if we go to pinstripe we didn’t really get skipped over

Going to rate bowl you could argue we got skipped over by one team
 


I bet we get hosed and end up in pinstripe bowl again because Rutgers was there last year. Music City Bowl always passes over the UMN. Honestly I would take Guaranteed rate against KState. At least a beatable opponent and somewhere warm, not 30's to 40 degrees. That and Georgia Tech almost beat Georgia.

Yes, I do like GA Tech as an opponent. They're ranked close to us by multiple rating services.
 

To be honest not sure it would be getting pushed down aside from one team (Nebraska)
Illinois 2 games clear
Iowa one game clear won head to head
Michigan and Rutgers same overall record won head to head
Nebraska 6-6
Nebraska and Minnesota should go to the bottom two bowls…which I think are rate and pinstripe

Rutgers has a worse conference record at 4-5. And head to head has never mattered in past bowl placements.
 

Rutgers has a worse conference record at 4-5. And head to head has never mattered in past bowl placements.

I think he knows that. That's probably why the one head-to-head he didn't mention was Minnesota beating Illinois. And Illinois is the only ranked team in the grouping.
 

I think he knows that. That's probably why the one head-to-head he didn't mention was Minnesota beating Illinois. And Illinois is the only ranked team in the grouping.
Illinois and Minnesota’s head to head would probably play a factor if they had the same record. You don’t think?
 




Non of it matters. They put the teams in tiers and work with the bowls to fill the spots.

Gotta think with Fleck, Brosmer, and the bowl win streak we’ll get a fair shake.
 


Non of it matters. They put the teams in tiers and work with the bowls to fill the spots.

Gotta think with Fleck, Brosmer, and the bowl win streak we’ll get a fair shake.
Agree. Which is why if we go to pinstripe I’m not sure you can say we got passed over. It just is what it is
 



Screenshot 2024-12-03 at 6.51.00 AM.png
USA TODAY has us in the Mayo Bowl in yesterday's projections
 



Yes but same record of 7-5

Not sure I agree with this claim

Rutgers finished lower in the Big Ten than the Gophers. Why wouldn't that matter exactly?

I don't even have to go back further than 2021 to find this info. Gophers, Purdue, and Wisconsin all finished 8-4 (6-3). The Gophers beat BOTH Wisconsin AND Purdue in 2021. Wisconsin went to the Las Vegas Bowl, Purdue went to the Music City Bowl, and the Gophers were sent to Phoenix.

Really don't think head to head has been disregarded in the past? Sure has for the Gophers.
 

The Athletic projects Gophers vs Virginia Tech in Mayo Bowl on Jan 3

Announcements for selection matchups is Dec 8th
 

Rutgers finished lower in the Big Ten than the Gophers. Why wouldn't that matter exactly?

I don't even have to go back further than 2021 to find this info. Gophers, Purdue, and Wisconsin all finished 8-4 (6-3). The Gophers beat BOTH Wisconsin AND Purdue in 2021. Wisconsin went to the Las Vegas Bowl, Purdue went to the Music City Bowl, and the Gophers were sent to Phoenix.

Really don't think head to head has been disregarded in the past? Sure has for the Gophers.
Saying in 2021 head to head didn’t matter is not the same thing as saying head to head never matters

If you said, head to head doesn’t always matter, I would’ve agreed with you. But you said it never matters. Which is just false. Sometimes it does matter.
Rutgers has a worse conference record at 4-5. And head to head has never mattered in past bowl placements.
Rutgers and Minnesota have same overall record. And I agree that Minnesota will probably get a better spot that Rutgers.
I’m just saying if they don’t, they didn’t really get passed over. They have same record and Rutgers beat them.
 
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Wish they would get a bowl game in Florida...would love to go. Nashville is just a long enough haul that I don't know we want to do that.
 

Saying in 2021 head to head didn’t matter is not the same thing as saying head to head never matters

If you said, head to head doesn’t always matter, I would’ve agreed with you. But you said it never matters. Which is just false. Sometimes it does matter.

Rutgers and Minnesota have same overall record. And I agree that Minnesota will probably get a better spot that Rutgers.
I’m just saying if they don’t, they didn’t really get passed over. They have same record and Rutgers beat them.

I'm simply pointing out that head to head doesn't matter in the end.....so using it as a basis to determine where we "deserve" to be placed is nonsense. 2021 was just one example where head to head was disregarded MULTIPLE times in relation to a single team (the Gophers).

Conference standings show that the Gophers finished higher than Rutgers. Conference standings matter regardless of what qualifications you make up on the spot to support your opinion.
 

I'm simply pointing out that head to head doesn't matter in the end.....so using it as a basis to determine where we "deserve" to be placed is nonsense. 2021 was just one example where head to head was disregarded MULTIPLE times in relation to a single team (the Gophers).

Conference standings show that the Gophers finished higher than Rutgers. Conference standings matter regardless of what qualifications you make up on the spot to support your opinion.
You just made up conference standings as mattering on the spot. There is nothing that says anything about conference standings

In fact; the few hard rules there are (like not jumping a team two wins better than you) are having to do with overall not conference


It’s fine. We don’t have to agree. You can be offended if the gophers get “jumped” if you want to.


There are not many hard rules. There are a ton of factors.
Conference standings
Overall records
Who beat who
Fanbase size
Who has been where recently
Which bowls got what they wanted more recently and less recently so they are “owed” something
Which teams got what they wanted more recently and less recently so they are “owed something”
Etc


If the gophers get passed by a team with the same record who beat them and a gophers fan is offended, they can’t be helped




The funniest part of this whole discussion is that I AGREE WITH YOU THAT THE GOPHERS WILL GET A BETTER BOWL THAN RUTGERS IN PART FOR THE REASONS YOU STATED. But for some reason you are offended by me saying it wouldn’t be very offensive for them to be picked behind Rutgers.
 
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You just made up conference standings as mattering on the spot. There is nothing that says anything about conference standings

In fact; the few hard rules there are (like not jumping a team two wins better than you) are having to do with overall not conference


It’s fine. We don’t have to agree. You can be offended if the gophers get “jumped” if you want to.


There are not many hard rules. There are a ton of factors.
Conference standings
Overall records
Who beat who
Fanbase size
Who has been where recently
Which bowls got what they wanted more recently and less recently so they are “owed” something
Which teams got what they wanted more recently and less recently so they are “owed something”
Etc


If the gophers get passed by a team with the same record who beat them and a gophers fan is offended, they can’t be helped




The funniest part of this whole discussion is that I AGREE WITH YOU THAT THE GOPHERS WILL GET A BETTER BOWL THAN RUTGERS IN PART FOR THE REASONS YOU STATED. But for some reason you are offended by me saying it wouldn’t be very offensive for them to be picked behind Rutgers.

We can argue back and forth all day about what REALLY matters. It's some combination of record, conference record, head-to-head, bowl preference, fan base, program prestige, etc........but in the end.....there are very few hard rules.

Your contention is that we wouldn't be getting "pushed down" because we lost head to head to Rutgers. I pointed out that in 2021 the Gophers were sent to Phoenix and Wisconsin/Purdue both got better landing spots despite the exact same record overall and in conference....while losing head to head to the Gophers.

Can't really have it both ways. Does head to head really matter in the end? Maybe? I would argue that finishing ahead in the Big Ten matters more.....but in the end that might not matter either.
 

We can argue back and forth all day about what REALLY matters. It's some combination of record, conference record, head-to-head, bowl preference, fan base, program prestige, etc........but in the end.....there are very few hard rules.

Your contention is that we wouldn't be getting "pushed down" because we lost head to head to Rutgers. I pointed out that in 2021 the Gophers were sent to Phoenix and Wisconsin/Purdue both got better landing spots despite the exact same record overall and in conference....while losing head to head to the Gophers.

Can't really have it both ways. Does head to head really matter in the end? Maybe? I would argue that finishing ahead in the Big Ten matters more.....but in the end that might not matter either.
They all matter.
You can say sometimes it matters and sometimes it doesn’t. Why can’t you say that? Why can’t you have it both ways. You literally can say that. I just did. They have it both ways every week in college football. Check the bowl placements year after year. Check the CFP rankings week after week. Nothing is objective.


Which is why Nebraska is projected to jump us in some projections
And Michigan is projected to jump Iowa in some projections
And why all the projections are different

It isn’t 2015 anymore. There isn’t a pecking order as Maxie said a few posts back.
 
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FWIW the Creative Charters site if I’m reading correctly has two trips you can get on a priority list for Mayo and Music City.
 

FWIW the Creative Charters site if I’m reading correctly has two trips you can get on a priority list for Mayo and Music City.
I would say they wouldn’t do that unless they have some insider information.
I am guessing the rumors of the pinstripe being owed are true and that the pinstripe wants Michigan and if they can’t get them they want Nebraska.
 

look, almost every in-depth article I read about bowl placement says that the Bowls want different teams. some of the bowls have it in writing that they must have 4 different teams over a 6-year period and so forth. the idea is that the teams' fan bases will be less likely to travel if they keep going back to the same location, but more likely to travel to a new location. and bowl committees want those fans coming to their communities to spend money.

but the bottom line - according to what I have read - is that the bowls and conferences work together to place teams - and they DO take into account whether a team has played in a certain bowl recently. so, as I understand it, if it comes down to a choice between, say, the Rate Bowl or the Mayo Bowl, the fact that the Gophers have played in the Rate Bowl recently, and have not played in the Mayo Bowl, will be taken into account.
 

look, almost every in-depth article I read about bowl placement says that the Bowls want different teams. some of the bowls have it in writing that they must have 4 different teams over a 6-year period and so forth. the idea is that the teams' fan bases will be less likely to travel if they keep going back to the same location, but more likely to travel to a new location. and bowl committees want those fans coming to their communities to spend money.

but the bottom line - according to what I have read - is that the bowls and conferences work together to place teams - and they DO take into account whether a team has played in a certain bowl recently. so, as I understand it, if it comes down to a choice between, say, the Rate Bowl or the Mayo Bowl, the fact that the Gophers have played in the Rate Bowl recently, and have not played in the Mayo Bowl, will be taken into account.
Agree 100%
But they are not just doing that factoring one team at a time.
They’re grouping teams.

So Illinois clear citrus

Then 5 teams for 5 games all kinda slammed together. Especially when you consider Iowa won’t have 65% of their passing yards and 65% of their rushing yards
 

They all matter.
You can say sometimes it matters and sometimes it doesn’t. Why can’t you say that? Why can’t you have it both ways. You literally can say that. I just did. They have it both ways every week in college football. Check the bowl placements year after year. Check the CFP rankings week after week. Nothing is objective.


Which is why Nebraska is projected to jump us in some projections
And Michigan is projected to jump Iowa in some projections
And why all the projections are different

It isn’t 2015 anymore. There isn’t a pecking order as Maxie said a few posts back.

You were the one contending that we wouldn't be getting "pushed down" if Rutgers were placed ahead of us. You are the one trying to place teams based on objective, cherry picked points (head-to-head).

What I've been saying.....and illustrated with my 2021 example.....is that there is no pecking order and head-to-head matchups certainly isn't the basis for bowl decisions based upon prior years.
 

You were the one contending that we wouldn't be getting "pushed down" if Rutgers were placed ahead of us. You are the one trying to place teams based on objective, cherry picked points (head-to-head).

What I've been saying.....and illustrated with my 2021 example.....is that there is no pecking order and head-to-head matchups certainly isn't the basis for bowl decisions based upon prior years.
I know. That’s why you’re so funny. You’re mad at me for saying the exact same thing as you. Why are you mad?

I am saying there are a lot of factors. If the gophers go to rate bowl or pinstripe they really weren’t passed over. Meanwhile you’re over here agreeing with everything I’ve said but for some reason you think you’re disagreeing with me?


If we go to a bowl lower than Nebraska or Rutgers it means based on a number of factors we are going to the rate or pinstripe bowl. Those factors could include but are not limited to:
Overall record being tied with Rutgers
Losing to Rutgers
Losing to Michigan
Proximity to site of game
Rutgers going to pinstripe bowl last year
Nebraska not having been to a bowl in forever
The rule of no repeat bowl being relaxed to more of a preference post conference expansion
Etc


And you agree with everything I just said except when I say “we didn’t really get passed over”

I don’t get what you’re disagreeing with
 




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