Yup I agree it's a weird list. Michigan is graduating Devante Jones (29 mpg) and Eli Brooks (36 mpg), which leaves a huge hole. I have no idea about who they have coming in or who is ready to step up. I would guess they are the favorite, knowing their need and recent success in the tournament.
Mississippi State has a very high usage point guard in Iverson Molinar (34 mpg, 18 ppg, 25% 3PT!) who declared for the NBA but didn't hire an agent. So there could be a huge role there...or not if he returns.
Payton Willis fits a similar high usage point guard mold as Michigan and Mississippi State which is why I think it is about playing time/wanting to be showcased. With how well Willis played I think we definitely have a shot.