2019-2020 Minnesota Twins Off-Season Thread

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Old man Pohlad got rich by foreclosing on people during the Great Depression. Is anybody surprised how the family runs the team?
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
The Padres 2018 revenue was nearly identical to that of the Twins. They somehow opened up the checkbook.
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They’re actually a great example of why it’s so risky. They signed a few free agents to big contracts and it didn’t work out. Hosmer has been bad, and now they’re really trying to unload Wil Myers to free up some money.

My point isn’t that the Twins shouldn’t ever take a chance because they should. But teams like the Yankees and Dodgers can survive a bad contract or two more than most other teams can.
 

GophersInIowa said:
They’re actually a great example of why it’s so risky. They signed a few free agents to big contracts and it didn’t work out. Hosmer has been bad, and now they’re really trying to unload Wil Myers to free up some money.

My point isn’t that the Twins shouldn’t ever take a chance because they should. But teams like the Yankees and Dodgers can survive a bad contract or two more than most other teams can.
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Its a good point. Teams like the Twins have to get it right. That being said, they should be more willing to give the free agent the extra dollars that can provide them a good return on investment. Its the Ricky Nolasco's of the world that the twins try to give decent money to in free agency that kills them.
 

GophersInIowa said:
They’re actually a great example of why it’s so risky. They signed a few free agents to big contracts and it didn’t work out. Hosmer has been bad, and now they’re really trying to unload Wil Myers to free up some money.

My point isn’t that the Twins shouldn’t ever take a chance because they should. But teams like the Yankees and Dodgers can survive a bad contract or two more than most other teams can.
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GophersInIowa said:
They’re actually a great example of why it’s so risky. They signed a few free agents to big contracts and it didn’t work out. Hosmer has been bad, and now they’re really trying to unload Wil Myers to free up some money.

My point isn’t that the Twins shouldn’t ever take a chance because they should. But teams like the Yankees and Dodgers can survive a bad contract or two more than most other teams can.
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Having a player eat up that much of your salary cap is risky. When there isn't a cap, what's the risk? Oh, ownership might not pocket millions this year. Haven't won a playoff game in 15 years, but by all means, be afraid to take a risk. It's working swimmingly.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
Its a good point. Teams like the Twins have to get it right. That being said, they should be more willing to give the free agent the extra dollars that can provide them a good return on investment. Its the Ricky Nolasco's of the world that the twins try to give decent money to in free agency that kills them.
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For sure. I do think pitching is generally riskier than position players when it comes to free agency. That's why I prefer a trade for a younger guy.
 


Breakin' The Plane said:
Having a player eat up that much of your salary cap is risky. When there isn't a cap, what's the risk? Oh, ownership might not pocket millions this year. Haven't won a playoff game in 15 years, but by all means, be afraid to take a risk. It's working swimmingly.
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While there isn't an official cap, we all know each team has somewhat of their own cap. Technically teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can spend way more than they do too. Right or wrong, that is the reality. So from the front office's perspective, these moves are risky. They have to be selective.
 

Iowa has bought the corporate spin hook, line, and sinker. He's an enabler of ineptitude. Sad.
 

TruthSeeker said:
Iowa has bought the corporate spin hook, line, and sinker. He's an enabler of ineptitude. Sad.
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I worked 11 years in baseball so I will probably have a different opinion than others. Not sure how that makes it sad. I'm not saying I know everything but I have a different perspective is all. You can all disagree, I think that's fine. Doesn't mean I love the Pohlads or anything like that.
 

The Pohlad kids don't want to win. They want to milk the public with mediocrity until they sell off the franchise.
 



Dean S said:
The Pohlad kids don't want to win. They want to milk the public with mediocrity until they sell off the franchise.
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That may be true. But they are not telling Falvey he has a cap of $100 million payroll for 2020. He's doing that to himself.

Also, they are now free to sell anytime.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I worked 11 years in baseball so I will probably have a different opinion than others. Not sure how that makes it sad. I'm not saying I know everything but I have a different perspective is all. You can all disagree, I think that's fine. Doesn't mean I love the Pohlads or anything like that.
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I don’t think your perspective is sad, nor do I think you are necessarily a PPP. I do think that a person can become so overly analytical that it becomes easy to miss the obvious. Historically, the Pohlads have only spent big money to retain their own players and they haven’t signed a top level contract since Mauer in 2010. Secondly, with no salary cap, the Pohlads have the resources to spend any amount of money they want. Third, the top line of $269M in 2018 will probably be at least $290M in 2020. A 50% payroll is $145M. The Twins can can exceed that number if they want. Finally, if the Twins want to sign even second tier FA talent, they have to overpay. That’s reality. The window is open now and they have the money. There’s no excuse not to do it.
 

Will the Twins have more than 2 starting pitchers worth watching? What's up with free agents going to every team except the MN Twins?
 

The Pohlads are bad owners. Always have been. Nothing is going to change that.
 



jamiche said:
I don’t think your perspective is sad, nor do I think you are necessarily a PPP. I do think that a person can become so overly analytical that it becomes easy to miss the obvious. Historically, the Pohlads have only spent big money to retain their own players and they haven’t signed a top level contract since Mauer in 2010. Secondly, with no salary cap, the Pohlads have the resources to spend any amount of money they want. Third, the top line of $269M in 2018 will probably be at least $290M in 2020. A 50% payroll is $145M. The Twins can can exceed that number if they want. Finally, if the Twins want to sign even second tier FA talent, they have to overpay. That’s reality. The window is open now and they have the money. There’s no excuse not to do it.
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That's all fair. As to your third point, I also think the FO can't just look at payroll now but has to look at how it affects payroll in the future too. They probably want the organization to be set up for long term success. If you sign someone to a big contract, history shows that many are not worth nearly as much as they are making towards the end of the contract. So does it hurt your chances of success 3-5 years down the road if you have a player making a lot of money and playing at an average/below average level?

Again, not saying they shouldn't attempt to sign big free agents. Just saying there are a lot of factors that go into making some of these decisions that the average fan may not think about it.
 

The Pohlads may be bad owners, but the only two World Series titles in Twins History came under their ownership.

I think this is all on Falvey and Levine. I think they have a very rigid idea of the type of player they are willing to sign - including number of years on the contract and $ they are willing to offer. Sometimes it works - Nelson Cruz. Sometimes it doesn't - Martin Perez.

My gut still tells me that Falvey and Levine are fixated on building from the farm system. If it's too expensive to buy or trade for starting pitching, you have to grow your own. Graterol looks like a keeper. they need a few more pitchers - especially starters - to click to make this philosophy pay off.
 

GophersInIowa said:
That's all fair. As to your third point, I also think the FO can't just look at payroll now but has to look at how it affects payroll in the future too. They probably want the organization to be set up for long term success. If you sign someone to a big contract, history shows that many are not worth nearly as much as they are making towards the end of the contract. So does it hurt your chances of success 3-5 years down the road if you have a player making a lot of money and playing at an average/below average level?

Again, not saying they shouldn't attempt to sign big free agents. Just saying there are a lot of factors that go into making some of these decisions that the average fan may not think about it.
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The Twins have a number of contracts coming off the books in the next couple of years. They have plenty of room to spend now and down the line. Secondly, the window is open today. Take advantage of it.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
The Pohlads may be bad owners, but the only two World Series titles in Twins History came under their ownership.

I think this is all on Falvey and Levine. I think they have a very rigid idea of the type of player they are willing to sign - including number of years on the contract and $ they are willing to offer. Sometimes it works - Nelson Cruz. Sometimes it doesn't - Martin Perez.

My gut still tells me that Falvey and Levine are fixated on building from the farm system. If it's too expensive to buy or trade for starting pitching, you have to grow your own. Graterol looks like a keeper. they need a few more pitchers - especially starters - to click to make this philosophy pay off.
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It’s not all on Falvey and Levine. Spending decisions in any company are always made by the folks who sign the checks. That’s axiomatic.
 

GophersInIowa said:
That's all fair. As to your third point, I also think the FO can't just look at payroll now but has to look at how it affects payroll in the future too. They probably want the organization to be set up for long term success. If you sign someone to a big contract, history shows that many are not worth nearly as much as they are making towards the end of the contract. So does it hurt your chances of success 3-5 years down the road if you have a player making a lot of money and playing at an average/below average level?
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I don’t think you can assume to be relevant in 3-5 years. In 5 years, almost all of their core players will be either done with arbitration eligibility, or be done with their current reasonable contracts. If they all stay competent to above average players, the Twins won’t be able to keep them all.

In Twinsland, we’ve been conditioned to believe that the “next wave” of farm system talent is going to be the greatest. But look at what they currently have from their farm system: Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Berrios, Sano, etc. THIS is the core group to add to (now) before they get disbanded. Terry Ryan wouldn’t make a bold move when Hunter, Moreau, Santana, etc. were here. What if they added a couple decent arms to that team? But nope, the farm guys were untouchable and the pocketbook never open. And low and behold, the farm system talent was largely irrelevant.

A good example of what you’re proposing is the A’s and Rays playbook. But they also can’t ever get over the hump. They can stay decent, but never actually get anywhere in the end.

As a Twins fan, I’ve seen this movie before. They don’t strike while the iron is hot, and they lose playoff series to the bigger spenders, and they slowly slide into irrelevance as we all opine “what could have been”.

IMO, the preferable playbook is the Royals or Astros. They both had a core that was about 80% of the way to a World Series. Then, they gambled a bit and went all out to get a couple of really good pitchers each, and both were rewarded with titles. While it’s not guaranteed to happen that way, I’ll take the risk instead of just getting pounded by the Yankees every time we’re in the playoffs.
 

forever a gopher said:
I don’t think you can assume to be relevant in 3-5 years. In 5 years, almost all of their core players will be either done with arbitration eligibility, or be done with their current reasonable contracts. If they all stay competent to above average players, the Twins won’t be able to keep them all.

In Twinsland, we’ve been conditioned to believe that the “next wave” of farm system talent is going to be the greatest. But look at what they currently have from their farm system: Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Berrios, Sano, etc. THIS is the core group to add to (now) before they get disbanded. Terry Ryan wouldn’t make a bold move when Hunter, Moreau, Santana, etc. were here. What if they added a couple decent arms to that team? But nope, the farm guys were untouchable and the pocketbook never open. And low and behold, the farm system talent was largely irrelevant.

A good example of what you’re proposing is the A’s and Rays playbook. But they also can’t ever get over the hump. They can stay decent, but never actually get anywhere in the end.

As a Twins fan, I’ve seen this movie before. They don’t strike while the iron is hot, and they lose playoff series to the bigger spenders, and they slowly slide into irrelevance as we all opine “what could have been”.

IMO, the preferable playbook is the Royals or Astros. They both had a core that was about 80% of the way to a World Series. Then, they gambled a bit and went all out to get a couple of really good pitchers each, and both were rewarded with titles. While it’s not guaranteed to happen that way, I’ll take the risk instead of just getting pounded by the Yankees every time we’re in the playoffs.
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I'll make this point once more and then drop it because I feel like we're just talking in circles. My point is not that they shouldn't take chances. They absolutely should. I agree about the Hunter, Morneau, Santana days. They absolutely should have tried to add another piece or two to those teams. All I meant was there are other variables than just looking at the team right now. It's the job of the FO to also look ahead.

My preference for top end pitching is to trade for it. The Astros and Royals are a great example and I agree they are the preferable playbook. They traded for Verlander, Cole, and Greinke. The big move the Royals made was trading for Cueto.

The Twins have stockpiled prospects and there really isn't enough room for everyone on the 40 man in the next year or two so I don't think they'll have much of a choice but to make trades. Just look at OF. Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler already up. Then Larnach, Kirilloff, Rooker, and many believe Lewis will eventually be in the OF.
 


per Shooter:

Don’t be surprised if the Twins sign free agent left-handed starter Rich Hill, 39, who was paid $18 million last season for the Dodgers. He finished 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and had 72 strikeouts in 58 2/3 innings during 13 starts. Hill had knee and elbow injuries last season but is 65-42 over a 15-season career.

www.twincities.com

Charley Walters: Playoff win likely required for new deals for Kirk Cousins, Mike Zimmer, Rick Spielman

Minnesota Vikings contract extensions for quarterback Kirk Cousins, head coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman? Had the Vikings not played so poorly in their 23-10 home-field loss to …
www.twincities.com www.twincities.com

Win Twins!!
 

BleedGopher said:
per Shooter:

Don’t be surprised if the Twins sign free agent left-handed starter Rich Hill, 39, who was paid $18 million last season for the Dodgers. He finished 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and had 72 strikeouts in 58 2/3 innings during 13 starts. Hill had knee and elbow injuries last season but is 65-42 over a 15-season career.

www.twincities.com

Charley Walters: Playoff win likely required for new deals for Kirk Cousins, Mike Zimmer, Rick Spielman

Minnesota Vikings contract extensions for quarterback Kirk Cousins, head coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman? Had the Vikings not played so poorly in their 23-10 home-field loss to …
www.twincities.com www.twincities.com

Win Twins!!
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Gross he's like 60...was the knee surgery a replacement?
 


tikited said:
When healthy he is easily the 2nd best pitcher on the Twins (maybe the best). When healthy is the key.
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I give the guy crap but he has been ok...I liked targeting him in fantasy baseball because he put up good numbers...but you're right he's always hurt.
 

tmvander said:
I give the guy crap but he has been ok...I liked targeting him in fantasy baseball because he put up good numbers...but you're right he's always hurt.
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Which is why the Twins will end up with him and he will pitch 15 games.
 

They not only got Rich Hill, but added Homer Bailey too! What a pair of big, bold moves before the clock strikes midnight for 2019!
 

These are the kinds of no risk no reward moves the Twins typically make. Their goals are to make a lot of money and almost win big, in that order.
 


That's not the bold move we need, but they were both good moves. If Bailey is your 5th starter, then you have one of the best 5th starters in the league. The Twins still need to trade Rosario to get an ace or #2 starter. That would be the bold move to put them on the map.
 

Falvine excels at these types of moves- filling roster spots 20-25 with guys better than traditionally are there. But they have yet to prove that they have the ability or gumption to make a move required to bolster a team to be good enough to win playoff series. The one exception/argument you could probably make to that is Cruz.

Hill and Bailey as your 4/5 starters may keep you from being under .500, and are decent moves looked at in a vacuum. But they’re not beating the Yankees in the playoffs, and that is the task at hand. If they keep piddling around dumpster diving, they’re going to watch their window close right in front of them. But does ownership care?
 

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