The thing is.....if the Skins are only expecting a throw away pick.....why would they take the risk of franchising him and being stuck with his salary? There are four top ten talent QB's in this years draft. For a few of the teams that I mentioned with high picks.....I would suspect that they are looking to find a QB in the draft. I think the most likely landing spots for Cousins would be in Arizona or Kansas City. Two teams that could very well compete next year with competent QB play.
Why would Kansas City trade Smith and then acquire Cousins? The entire reason they traded Smith is that they are rolling with Mahomes. There is zero chance of Cousins in KC. Denver and Minnesota are the most likely spots IMO. Jets and Arizona as well, but Cousins wants to win now. If Cousins indicates he will refuse to sign an extension, no one is giving the Redskins anything of value.
I agree it's a dumb risk for the Skins. Even if they eventually trade him, they could end up unable to sign any FA's for however long that takes. Do you want to be completely shut out the first week of FA because you're trying to squeeze a 7th round pick out of Cousins? That would be foolish.