*** OFFICIAL GOPHERS-IOWA GAME THREAD ***

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Big difference --UConn had a coach and some hard-nosed players.
 

I want to know if we miss the tourney and our RPI is the highest its ever been is it time to move on or should we keep a coach because our RPI is strong.
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
MrJ --

Regression?? We have the highest RPI rating we've ever had since they invented the RPI. How is that regression?!

And we have gotten to this point with NO BENCH whatsoever.

So we literally live or die according to our starting 5, almost without exception. 3 of them show up to play, we win. 2 of them show up to play, well, then its a toss up. Only 1 shows up, we lose. Of if they simply give up like it seems they did today, we lose.


I understand that being outscored by 37 points after going up by 16 is well, words escape me actually, BUT...


A quick look at the Sagarin Ratings of the teams who have beaten us will show you that we are winning the games we should and losing the games we should, with 3 exceptions. The two Illinois games are flip-flopped, but that is easily explained by simply looking at their 3 point shooting percentages in those 2 games.

That leaves us with the one bad loss, the NW game. But still, it was a ROAD game. And NW did also beat Baylor and one other Top 50 RPI team on the ROAD this year. So its not like we were the only team to lose a bad game. And Kansas losing to TCU was ten times as worse of a loss.


So we are probably going to lose our next two games. We might have to be happy to finish 8-10 in regular conf play.

But then the 2nd season starts. First the BTT, then the NCAA tournament.


UConn went into a Big East tournament as the 9th seed in the tourney. Won the tourney, went into the NCAA tourney as a #3 seed and went on to win the NCAA Championship.


Not saying thats what we are going to do, but if UConn could do that after their horrible conf season, there is still hope that we could make the tourney and get to the Sweet 16 or maybe even the Elite 8.


Hey, Tubby could coach us into an NIT first round loss, too. Not predicting anything. Just saying that both possibilities are about equally likely.
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If you want to rely on numbers to insist that things are going well and that we're actually progressing, go right ahead. The eye test says this team is nowhere near progressing. But hey, knock yourself out with numbers if it makes you feel better.

As for the bench, that is entirely Tubby's fault since he's in charge of bringing in all of the players, so there's another strike against him. You can try to vehemently defend him all you want, but anyone who has watched this team over the past several weeks can see it's an absolute mess. But you've proven yourself to be the biggest Tubby lover on this board in recent weeks, so I'm not surprised.
 

I want to know if we miss the tourney and our RPI is the highest its ever been is it time to move on or should we keep a coach because our RPI is strong.
#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
MrJ --

Regression?? We have the highest RPI rating we've ever had since they invented the RPI. How is that regression?!

And we have gotten to this point with NO BENCH whatsoever.


So we literally live or die according to our starting 5, almost without exception. 3 of them show up to play, we win. 2 of them show up to play, well, then its a toss up. Only 1 shows up, we lose. Of if they simply give up like it seems they did today, we lose.


I understand that being outscored by 37 points after going up by 16 is well, words escape me actually, BUT...


A quick look at the Sagarin Ratings of the teams who have beaten us will show you that we are winning the games we should and losing the games we should, with 3 exceptions. The two Illinois games are flip-flopped, but that is easily explained by simply looking at their 3 point shooting percentages in those 2 games.

That leaves us with the one bad loss, the NW game. But still, it was a ROAD game. And NW did also beat Baylor and one other Top 50 RPI team on the ROAD this year. So its not like we were the only team to lose a bad game. And Kansas losing to TCU was ten times as worse of a loss.


So we are probably going to lose our next two games. We might have to be happy to finish 8-10 in regular conf play.

But then the 2nd season starts. First the BTT, then the NCAA tournament.


UConn went into a Big East tournament as the 9th seed in the tourney. Won the tourney, went into the NCAA tourney as a #3 seed and went on to win the NCAA Championship.


Not saying thats what we are going to do, but if UConn could do that after their horrible conf season, there is still hope that we could make the tourney and get to the Sweet 16 or maybe even the Elite 8.


Hey, Tubby could coach us into an NIT first round loss, too. Not predicting anything. Just saying that both possibilities are about equally likely.
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#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
THERE!!! Right there!!! I told you so. Big10guy is the first to come here after the game and call Iowa a "terrible team".


Told you so.

Funny thing is, come Monday morning, Iowa's going to be ranked right up with Illinois in all of the computer polls, cept the RPI which has Iowa rated pretty badly. But that is the exception to the rule, all the other computer ratings have Iowa rated pretty good.
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I'm with you that Iowa is not terrible. However, being outscored by 37 over a stretch by an average B10 is really not any better than against a terrible team. Especially when it happens due to complete helplessness against a zone for the who knows how manyth time.
 


In which part of the Barn will be hang those RPI banners?
 

Biggest Tubby Lover???


Dude, stop starting up Fire Tubby threads every time the team loses a road game to a Top 40 team, and claiming that we are regressing when our RPI rating is the highest its EVER been, and I'll stop posting positive things about Tubby.


I don't love Tubby, I'm actually sick to my stomach that I feel compelled to defend him simply to bring some balance to the discussion. I've said this before, if ALL of Tubby's critics left the GH, I would be the first one to step up and volunteer to step in and replace them and would start being critical of Tubby. But like I said, only if all of the many Tubby critics now here left.


If I went to some other forum and found 100% of the posters there loved Tubby, I'd go negative. If I went somewhere and found people talking about how the Gopher hockey team wouldn't lose another game for the next 15 months, I'd go negative in that forum as well.
 


I still would like to know if we miss the Tourney and have the highest rpi we have had does he deserve to be fired.
 



It's called BALANCE. Call me the Devil's Advocate if you will, whatever. I don't love Tubby. I didn't love Glen Mason, either, but how many years now since we fired Glen and look at how well we've done without him.


Now IF, and only IF, Jerry Kill turns out to be the real deal, will I feel it was worth suffering through some down years to finally get a coach who is the REAL DEAL. But that has yet to be determined, and it may be 5 years down the line before we'll know for sure if he is or not?!


Keeping Mason would have gotten us to alot more Bowl games than we've been to since we fired him. But getting to that next level then may not have happened?! Jury is still out on whether it was a good firing.


I have the same opinion of Tubby Smith. If we keep him, he'll probably get us to the Big Dance more often than anyone has in the past, EVER. This year would make it 3 out of 6. No other coach can make that claim. NO OTHER GOPHER COACH can make that claim. But with his seeming lack of coaching ability, would getting the Big 3 even be enough to get us a Natl Title, or a FF even?! Maybe?! Maybe not?! Maybe that would revive the fire in Tubby's belly?! He was able to win a Natl Title with a really talented team at Kentucky, so maybe he wouldn't screw it up!?! Maybe he would?!


But firing him could end up leading us to the cellar, and another coach getting fired, and then who knows?!

I, personally, still think the jury is out on Shaka Smart. I think the jury is still out on whether anyone can win at Minnesota without cheating?!

Who has?! Since 1920, who has won at Minnesota, without cheating or getting nailed with 100 NCAA violations?!


I am not sold on Tubby. But it seems to me that the season isn't over yet.
 

If we finish with the highest RPI rating that the Gopher's have ever had since the invention of the RPI ratings, well, I think that would make it impossible for us to be excluded from the Big Dance.


I tell you this much, I'd find it amusing, depressing too, but still amusing if the Gophers were the team that finally were the final nail in the coffin for the RPI rating system. It's a horrible system actually, and many people, even NCAA selection committee members would like to get rid of it. Maybe the Gophers can BREAK THE RPI system. Force the NCAA selection committee to scrap it.

lol
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
Biggest Tubby Lover???


Dude, stop starting up Fire Tubby threads every time the team loses a road game to a Top 40 team, and claiming that we are regressing when our RPI rating is the highest its EVER been, and I'll stop posting positive things about Tubby.


I don't love Tubby, I'm actually sick to my stomach that I feel compelled to defend him simply to bring some balance to the discussion. I've said this before, if ALL of Tubby's critics left the GH, I would be the first one to step up and volunteer to step in and replace them and would start being critical of Tubby. But like I said, only if all of the many Tubby critics now here left.


If I went to some other forum and found 100% of the posters there loved Tubby, I'd go negative. If I went somewhere and found people talking about how the Gopher hockey team wouldn't lose another game for the next 15 months, I'd go negative in that forum as well.
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Well, since everytime anyone dares say anything bad about the job he is doing, the first thing you do is tell everyone how wrong they are, I can only assume that you're a Tubby apologist or "lover." That's the only way I can possibly reconcile using RPI ratings to point out how much better the team is despite how they actually look during games. If balance is what your looking for, fine. Just don't expect everybody to paint some rosy picture when the pattern of looking bad has been well established for this team.

Second, you can stop with the "fire tubby" threads comment since I've never once started one.
 

Dr.Don said:
Well gang, mnsports255 did it. He is now on record as the youngest poster to be banned.



mnsports255
mnsports255 is online now Banned

Some of us tried to warn him and slow him down, but he was and has been pretty relentless. Maybe his mom will give him a new pacifier?
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whew...good, he was giving my bad name a bad name!
 



#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
If we finish with the highest RPI rating that the Gopher's have ever had since the invention of the RPI ratings, well, I think that would make it impossible for us to be excluded from the Big Dance.


I tell you this much, I'd find it amusing, depressing too, but still amusing if the Gophers were the team that finally were the final nail in the coffin for the RPI rating system. It's a horrible system actually, and many people, even NCAA selection committee members would like to get rid of it. Maybe the Gophers can BREAK THE RPI system. Force the NCAA selection committee to scrap it.

lol
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Speaking of lol, you use the RPI rating to prop up the team and then come back with this rant about how the RPI is a broken system? Tells me all I need to know about engaging in arguments with you from now on.
 

So is the Jury still out when Smart goes to the dance 3 years, assuming they make it this year, in a row before the age of 36. (A feat no Gopher coach has ever done) Smart is a 36 rising star in the coaching ranks who by the way has his team 9-2 and leading in the A-10 which in your precious RPI is the 7th best conference a head of the SEC. When is the jury not out on Smart?
#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
It's called BALANCE. Call me the Devil's Advocate if you will, whatever. I don't love Tubby. I didn't love Glen Mason, either, but how many years now since we fired Glen and look at how well we've done without him.


Now IF, and only IF, Jerry Kill turns out to be the real deal, will I feel it was worth suffering through some down years to finally get a coach who is the REAL DEAL. But that has yet to be determined, and it may be 5 years down the line before we'll know for sure if he is or not?!


Keeping Mason would have gotten us to alot more Bowl games than we've been to since we fired him. But getting to that next level then may not have happened?! Jury is still out on whether it was a good firing.


I have the same opinion of Tubby Smith. If we keep him, he'll probably get us to the Big Dance more often than anyone has in the past, EVER. This year would make it 3 out of 6. No other coach can make that claim. NO OTHER GOPHER COACH can make that claim. But with his seeming lack of coaching ability, would getting the Big 3 even be enough to get us a Natl Title, or a FF even?! Maybe?! Maybe not?! Maybe that would revive the fire in Tubby's belly?! He was able to win a Natl Title with a really talented team at Kentucky, so maybe he wouldn't screw it up!?! Maybe he would?!


But firing him could end up leading us to the cellar, and another coach getting fired, and then who knows?!

I, personally, still think the jury is out on Shaka Smart. I think the jury is still out on whether anyone can win at Minnesota without cheating?!

Who has?! Since 1920, who has won at Minnesota, without cheating or getting nailed with 100 NCAA violations?!


I am not sold on Tubby. But it seems to me that the season isn't over yet.
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MRJ said:
Well, since everytime anyone dares say anything bad about the job he is doing, the first thing you do is tell everyone how wrong they are, I can only assume that you're a Tubby apologist or "lover." That's the only way I can possibly reconcile using RPI ratings to point out how much better the team is despite how they actually look during games. If balance is what your looking for, fine. Just don't expect everybody to paint some rosy picture when the pattern of looking bad has been well established for this team.

Second, you can stop with the "fire tubby" threads comment since I've never once started one.
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He'll argue with you(or anyone) no matter which side you take. That is his idea of BALANCE.

It's called cause and effect I guess.

Oh yeah, they're long posts........in case you missed that.
 

station19 said:
He'll argue with you(or anyone) no matter which side you take. That is his idea of BALANCE.

It's called cause and effect I guess.

Oh yeah, they're lost posts........in case you missed that.
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Yeah, I probably should have known better.

I now consider myself warned.
 

Not to mention Smart has a great recruiting class for VCU. One player has offers from KSTATE, Memphis, Temple, and Miami and the other two players both have offers from top 6 conference schools.
 

MrJ

I post the RPI ratings, because they are relevant, because the NCAA selection committee considers them to be.

If you go back and check, I also post the Sagarin and Ken-Pom and BPI ratings for the Gophers as well.

ALL of which consistently rank Minnesota as one of the Top 15 teams in the nation.


CONSISTENTLY.

KP - #14
BPI - #10
Sag - #15
RPI - #13

Also, TeamRankings dot com has us ranked #12 in Predictive Rating, and #16 in Overall Power Rating.


Minnesota is about the most consistently rated team in the entire country.


I do not have to believe in the RPI to post its ratings, when the NCAA Selection Committee looks at them when considering which bubble teams to let in and which to exclude.
 

9-2? Yeah?! SO WHAT!!!!

Have you seen who they've played so far?! Minnesota would be 10-1 vs the same scedule!!!! We actually beat Richmond, something VCU hasn't done this year.

Or do you people even do any research before posting some of your opinions?!


And Shaka Smart's VCU team is ranked #35 in the RPI right now. Kind of floating close to the bubble. Especially with their next 4 games being


@ St Louis,
@ Xavier
vs Butler
vs Richmond - a team they've already lost to.

FIRST TIME ALL YEAR they will be playing anything close to the kind of scedule that Minnesota has to play in conf.

VCU goes 0-4 vs those 4 teams and all you Fire Tubby guys should vow never to mention his name again.
If VCU goes 4-0 vs those 4 teams, I'll become the President of the Hire Shaka Smart Club.

But more realistically, VCU will probably go 2-2 vs those 4 teams. Where will that put them in terms of RPI ranking?

If they go 1-3, they won't even be considered a bubble team anymore. If they go 2-2, my guess is they'll still be a bubble team. 3-1 and they'll start getting mentions for the better seeds in the tourney. If they go 4-0, they might move way up?!


Like I said, JURY IS STILL OUT on Shaka Smart.

Tubby looked pretty damn impressive after his first few years as a head coach as well.
 

Not going to argue with you that Tubby WAS a great coach when he was at Tulsa I would have loved to have him or after Georgia. He was young and hungry. Hes going to be 62 next year Smart is going to be 36 with a Tubby career sitting in front of him. Kentucky fans told us this 7 years ago that recruiting has passed him by and that was before the facility arms race took place. You honestly think Minnesota would win at Richmond right now, it would be a tough game not mention that is a rivalry game. You have called him a one hit wonder, please any number of Top 6 conference teams would kill to have this guy. If I wanted someone to lead my program the next 5 years give me the young hungry up and comer versus a guy that the game has passed by. Smart also has brought in a recruiting class as good or better than Tubby for next year at VCU, this guy is not a one hit wonder and with another trip to the NCAA and possible win even the last doubters like you will have to admit this guy is the real deal.
 

You are always talking RPI, last I looked they are the first place team in the 7th rated RPI ahead of the SEC, and Missouri Valley.
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
MrJ

I post the RPI ratings, because they are relevant, because the NCAA selection committee considers them to be.

If you go back and check, I also post the Sagarin and Ken-Pom and BPI ratings for the Gophers as well.

ALL of which consistently rank Minnesota as one of the Top 15 teams in the nation.


CONSISTENTLY.

KP - #14
BPI - #10
Sag - #15
RPI - #13

Also, TeamRankings dot com has us ranked #12 in Predictive Rating, and #16 in Overall Power Rating.


Minnesota is about the most consistently rated team in the entire country.


I do not have to believe in the RPI to post its ratings, when the NCAA Selection Committee looks at them when considering which bubble teams to let in and which to exclude.
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Again, I can see your point. And for what it's worth, I honestly don't think there is a perfect numbers system to evaluate any team. They all emphasize certain things while de-emphasizing others, which is why I go by what I see. Nice to know you're a numbers guy. I tend to go by more of the eye test and right now, the team simply isn't passing it. I fear that if they continue along this path, all the numbers in the world won't save them.

I was having a hard time understanding why someone would bring up a system they don't like to somehow defend a coach from criticism. But I guess I can kind of see it. Just a different approach I guess.
 

MrJ --

I am more of a numbers guy. Had some experience in the past betting on cbb, and found that watching games skewed my perspective. So I would only watch Gopher games, and then not bet on the Gophers. By going 100% by the numbers when I picked who I thought was going to cover the spreads, I was between 75 and 85% when I bet on cbb. My % went up as well when I stopped betting on Ivy League bb games. Too many times some 0-8 Yale team would upset an 8-0 Harvard team simply because of a 150 year old rivalry?! lol Considered doing it for a profession, but didn't want my daughters to have to tell people their Daddy was a Professional Gambler.

The thing I don't like about the eye test, is that bb so often goes in runs, is affected by where the game is played, by how the refs are calling the game, and so if you see a team while they are on one of their good runs, its easy to get too high of an impression of them. If you see a team playing a vastly inferior opponent, it can give you the impression that they can do no wrong. If you see them on an off night vs a quality opponent, sort of like Duke vs Miami, then it can look like they can do nothing right.


The eye test is far more susceptible to error unless you watch 100% of the team's games, and even then, without watching 100% of their opponents games, how can you really make an accurate accessment, and if you continue that line of thinking, basically you'd have to watch 100% of the bb games played.

Or, you can crunch the numbers, or let ratings systems do the crunching for you, and compare them side by side, or let me do that for you, and then, with alot less effort, you can come to some pretty solid conclusions, that only rarely end up to be way off base.
 


Originally Posted by #1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat

CONSISTENTLY.

KP - #14
BPI - #10
Sag - #15
RPI - #13
I can come up with a solid conclusion just from these numbers. The Gophers are overrated.
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After the next two Ls and a worthless win over penn state, these numbers will be worse.
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
MrJ --

I am more of a numbers guy. Had some experience in the past betting on cbb, and found that watching games skewed my perspective. So I would only watch Gopher games, and then not bet on the Gophers. By going 100% by the numbers when I picked who I thought was going to cover the spreads, I was between 75 and 85% when I bet on cbb. My % went up as well when I stopped betting on Ivy League bb games. Too many times some 0-8 Yale team would upset an 8-0 Harvard team simply because of a 150 year old rivalry?! lol Considered doing it for a profession, but didn't want my daughters to have to tell people their Daddy was a Professional Gambler.

The thing I don't like about the eye test, is that bb so often goes in runs, is affected by where the game is played, by how the refs are calling the game, and so if you see a team while they are on one of their good runs, its easy to get too high of an impression of them. If you see a team playing a vastly inferior opponent, it can give you the impression that they can do no wrong. If you see them on an off night vs a quality opponent, sort of like Duke vs Miami, then it can look like they can do nothing right.


The eye test is far more susceptible to error unless you watch 100% of the team's games, and even then, without watching 100% of their opponents games, how can you really make an accurate accessment, and if you continue that line of thinking, basically you'd have to watch 100% of the bb games played.

Or, you can crunch the numbers, or let ratings systems do the crunching for you, and compare them side by side, or let me do that for you, and then, with alot less effort, you can come to some pretty solid conclusions, that only rarely end up to be way off base.
Click to expand...

The eye test does rely heavily on watching a lot of one team's games, which I fortunately am able to do since I've been a Gopher fan since the last 1980s. When it comes to evaluating a team for me, I look for patterns and then changes in pattern, either good or bad. I also look for progression to see if a team is improving in certain areas or if they're remaining stagnant or in some cases, regressing. Usually, when I say or imply a team is regressing, it's due to psychology more than anything else. That's where this team's regression has taken place imo. And it's not just Tubby, but the players as well. They still have the physical skills they had originally, but there is a big time problem with pyschology on this team and as a result, the team feels like its stepping backwards.

Long term, the lack of being able to attack a zone has been a pattern I had been hoping to see broken in a positive direction. But, sadly, there hasn't been any movement one way or the other on that front. That, along with some other long-winded factors I could cite, are reasons I also see this program as a whole stagnant and very stale at the moment. Will things get better? I sure hope so, but with the patterns I see, I have my doubts.

As for today, that was a total debacle on all fronts. I think we at least agree on this.
 

Lets look at VCU a little closer shall we?!

In their last 11 games, all conf games,

LOST vs #34 LaSalle - Losing a home game to anyone in that conf, hardly is a good thing.
LOST @ #80 Richmond - Losing to Richmond is about akin to losing to NW.

Won vs #55 Mass - Not even as good a win as our win over Iowa
Won @ #56 Charlotte - A nice win, but as good as our win over Illinois?
Won vs #82 St Josephs - About as worthy as our win over NW
Won vs #120 Dayton - About as worthy as our win over Nebraska
Won vs #122 Geo Wash - About as worthy as our win over Nebraska
Won @ #126 St Boni - About as worthy as our win over well, if we get a win over Purdue might be.
Won @ #182 Rhode Is - About as worty as our win over PSU would be if we beat them.
Won @ #211 Dusquene - Well, I've run out of crappy teams on our conf scedule to compare these wins with.
Won vs #220 Fordham - Same as directly above.


So tell me again what is so grand about VCU's 9-2 record so far in the 7th best conf in the country?!


Talk to me in 5 games after they play Road games vs Xavier and St Louis, Butler at home, Richmond again, and then a road game vs Temple to finish off the regular season.


They may only win 1 or 2 of those games.
 

To paraphrase Homer Simpson: "Being a Gopher fan is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."
 

MrJ --

Hey, before I say anything else, I have to say that your last few posts are the kinds of posts that I enjoy reading. All of them have been critical of Tubby and the team, and a few of me and/or my analysis, but you've also conceded to at least one or two of the points I've been trying to make, and doing that draws me in and makes me far more likely to take your opinion seriously.

thought our conversation was headed in a bad direction and all of a sudden it changed, and I think it was you who seemed to change. You just seemed to tone down your negativity, and wow, go figure, now I've enjoyed our discussion the last few posts.


I hope we can continue in this manner in the future, whether the team wins or loses.
 

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