Zebrowski

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Dean S said:
Thanks for standing up for the coaches records. Past success is not predictive of future success. If everything was linear, we would all certainly gamble daily on Gopher victories and all come out wealthier for it. Nobody in their right mind would gamble for income on the reputation of the coaches past. Not one sane person.

Every day I wake up and try to instill rational thought in the thoughtless. Please continue to bring up fairy tales and daisy dust to add a little color around here anytime.
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I agree that past performance isn't necessarily extremely relevant. However, I do feel it's a more valid indicator than you not really liking what you saw after 2 games in which we jumped out to a combined 63-0 lead before allowing any points
 

fryguy22 said:
I agree that past performance isn't necessarily extremely relevant. However, I do feel it's a more valid indicator than you not really liking what you saw after 2 games in which we jumped out to a combined 63-0 lead before allowing any points
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Yea. Point taken. 63 points against the little sisters of the cream puff non conference portion of the schedule. I see how you got there with your validation indicator. I'm in awe.
 

Are you actually walking around out there?

Dean S said:
Thanks for standing up for the coaches records. Past success is not predictive of future success. If everything was linear, we would all certainly gamble daily on Gopher victories and all come out wealthier for it. Nobody in their right mind would gamble for income on the reputation of the coaches past. Not one sane person.

Every day I wake up and try to instill rational thought in the thoughtless. Please continue to bring up fairy tales and daisy dust to add a little color around here anytime.
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So, how does anyone hire anyone anywhere? How does any team decide who plays? Today might be the day somebody different is more successful...let em all play. Rotate starters. My high school baseball coach thought it was a good idea to draw names from a hat for defensive positions and then again for the batting order. Is that you coach?

I think when John Wooden coached at UCLA one could predict they'd be pretty successful each season. The Patriots generally find a way to
go deep into the playoffs each season. Mike Grant has his team playing for state titles quite often. It's endless... Ted Williams hit pretty well every year along with Pete Rose, Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, and literally hundreds of other guys in baseball history. Pick anything and certain people prove they can adapt and excel year after year. Success is never guaranteed but it's absolutely predictive over time as demonstrated by people with hall of fame careers and rising business positions.

What you call rational thought IS thoughtless and pretty scary.
 

60's Guy said:
So, how does anyone hire anyone anywhere? How does any team decide who plays? Today might be the day somebody different is more successful...let em all play. Rotate starters. My high school baseball coach thought it was a good idea to draw names from a hat for defensive positions and then again for the batting order. Is that you coach?

I think when John Wooden coached at UCLA one could predict they'd be pretty successful each season. The Patriots generally find a way to
go deep into the playoffs each season. Mike Grant has his team playing for state titles quite often. It's endless... Ted Williams hit pretty well every year along with Pete Rose, Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, and literally hundreds of other guys in baseball history. Pick anything and certain people prove they can adapt and excel year after year. Success is never guaranteed but it's absolutely predictive over time as demonstrated by people with hall of fame careers and rising business positions.

What you call rational thought IS thoughtless and pretty scary.
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Real analysis related to prediction use information that reflects current conditions and project it forward. When Wooden predicted success, he wasn't looking at the previous years roster but the current years roster. You are using a classic error in judgment to protect a fallacy. You join the growing roster of the well intended.
 

A study of expert predictions of forecasts by experts across many fields looked at the record of 27,000 predictions that had an 80 percent confidence level of being correct. They averaged being right 60% of the time, not much better than chance. Imagine how many predictions by non experts would do!

Predictions are like plasma. Plasma takes up 98 percent of the universe and it doesn't matter!
 


Dean S said:
A study of expert predictions of forecasts by experts across many fields looked at the record of 27,000 predictions that had an 80 percent confidence level of being correct. They averaged being right 60% of the time, not much better than chance. Imagine how many predictions by non experts would do!

Predictions are like plasma. Plasma takes up 98 percent of the universe and it doesn't matter!
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One of the more interesting fields for analysis or predicting is investing. The data shows that the average investor has underperformed the S&P 500 by about 1/2. That because our ego and emotions (fear and greed etc.) drive our decision, not rational thinking. The reality is that people don't make rational decisions. Part of the problem is our lack of understanding what the true risks and rewards are. We also tend to be short termed focused instead of long term. Sounds like the GopherHole, hey?
 

Killjoy said:
One of the more interesting fields for analysis or predicting is investing. The data shows that the average investor has underperformed the S&P 500 by about 1/2. That because our ego and emotions (fear and greed etc.) drive our decision, not rational thinking. The reality is that people don't make irrational decisions. Part of the problem is our lack of understanding what the true risks and rewards are. We also tend to be short termed focused instead of long term. Sounds like the GopherHole, hey?
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No, the opposite. You can predict long term success by investing in Jerry Kill. You agreeing with Dean are saying
past success is not predictive of future success. I disagree and you are either having trouble analyzing data or understanding the argument. Warren Buffet buys and holds. People who buy Coca Cola, IBM stocks and hold
do well. The past success of those companies has proven to provide future success if you hold. Completely the opposite of what Dean is saying that "past success is not predictive of future success." Not sure how you reach your conclusion to agree with Dean, Killjoy that Jerry Kill's past success is no predictive of future success?
 

It sounds like Judd Zulgad has some good ideas about coaching the quarterbacks, maybe he could replace Zebrowski?
 

60's Guy said:
No, the opposite. You can predict long term success by investing in Jerry Kill. You agreeing with Dean are saying
past success is not predictive of future success. I disagree and you are either having trouble analyzing data or understanding the argument. Warren Buffet buys and holds. People who buy Coca Cola, IBM stocks and hold
do well. The past success of those companies has proven to provide future success if you hold. Completely the opposite of what Dean is saying that "past success is not predictive of future success." Not sure how you reach your conclusion to agree with Dean, Killjoy that Jerry Kill's past success is no predictive of future success?
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Comprehension is a major difficulty for our species and we rule the world!

I simply stated that staff longevity is insufficient a sole predictor of team success and past performance is not in and of itself sufficient to predict success. Add in other factors, such as other teams having great coaches and the balance does not change that much.

To be clear, I didn't say it was necessary to make a change at the head coach level. But, there is mounting evidence that we will see no progress in the offense this year in the passing game and that is cause for long term concern. I, for one, don't like loyalty as a measure of stability. Stability is required for predicting future outcomes. If a new coach comes in with a history of success in his specialty and that success exceeds our current coaches capacity, well that ought to be studiedand examined on its own merits. At the end of each review cycle, it is a fair question to ask if a particular coach needs to be replaced. This isn't an immoral, unethical or ignorant point of view. It is a rational point of view.
 



Dean S said:
I simply stated that staff longevity is insufficient a sole predictor of team success and past performance is not in and of itself sufficient to predict success.
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You stated neither of these things.
 



60's Guy said:
No, the opposite. You can predict long term success by investing in Jerry Kill. You agreeing with Dean are saying
past success is not predictive of future success. I disagree and you are either having trouble analyzing data or understanding the argument. Warren Buffet buys and holds. People who buy Coca Cola, IBM stocks and hold
do well. The past success of those companies has proven to provide future success if you hold. Completely the opposite of what Dean is saying that "past success is not predictive of future success." Not sure how you reach your conclusion to agree with Dean, Killjoy that Jerry Kill's past success is no predictive of future success?
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You are right on! I am a value and contrarian investor and a big fan of Warren Buffett. Unfortunately I was trying to make a point to Dean that a lot of the predictions/beliefs here on the GopherHole were based on peoples egos and beliefs, not on rational thinking. My approach was not a good one and I should have been more direct. I would have been much better off using your comments than mine. Thanks for your help and excellent post.
 



Unregistered User said:
Start listening to this podcast at the 12:00 mark.

Q: Jerry who is your #3 QB right now?
A: Right now it would be Jacques Perra. 'Cause we're trying to redshirt Dimonic...
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Yes, I already addressed that. Actions speak much louder than words. Has Jerry Kill proven at Minnesota he is going to play the best
player available even if he is a freshman? I think so. He is going to play the guy that gives them the best chance to win today. Right?
So, that is why Perra is #3. So, why is Jerry saying nice things about DRM? Because he wants him to stay in the program is my guess.
He is the number 5 quarterback. Next year if we sign our verbally committed QB DRM will be #6 at which point he'll hopefully decide he's a defensive back which is what the other schools recruiting him recruited him as and he will have four years to play defense at Minnesota. That's why they want to redshirt him. All just my opinion but I think it is pretty transparent.
 

60's Guy said:
Yes, I already addressed that. Actions speak much louder than words. Has Jerry Kill proven at Minnesota he is going to play the best
player available even if he is a freshman? I think so. He is going to play the guy that gives them the best chance to win today. Right?
So, that is why Perra is #3. So, why is Jerry saying nice things about DRM? Because he wants him to stay in the program is my guess.
He is the number 5 quarterback. Next year if we sign our verbally committed QB DRM will be #6 at which point he'll hopefully decide he's a defensive back which is what the other schools recruiting him recruited him as and he will have four years to play defense at Minnesota. That's why they want to redshirt him. All just my opinion but I think it is pretty transparent.
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He's too slow and too big to play defensive back. Linebacker, maybe.
 

I agree

dpodoll68 said:
He's too slow and too big to play defensive back. Linebacker, maybe.
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but the other schools were recruiting him as a defensive back. I see the same thing you do, But a 5'11 or whatever linebacker doesn't fit with what they like either. It's all puzzling to me. Is he Dexter 2.0? Maybe he does stay at QB
but that just doesn't compute for me either as I do think he'll be #6.
 

Or maybe he is a great athlete with a ton of potential who needs significant grooming to learn the system / the college level. Maybe Perra would be the better option today but obviously wouldn't be a year from now and they see great things from DRM, but not this year. Just a thought.
 

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