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Some Day...Maybe

Some Day...Maybe

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I think it's tough to make a win loss prediction this year due to the change at OC. Thought it'd be interesting if people want to make their predictions here, or just give their thoughts on the upcoming season. Maybe it's just me but it seems like the excitement/activity on the Gopherhole still isn't up to what it was prior to the pandemic. Let's hope that this season we can get back to as close to normal as possible.

I know I keep saying it over and over, but I think so much of what determines the Gophers success this season comes down to Mike Sanford Jr. If he can get the offense to 90% of the level of 2019 I think it will be a great season for the Gophers, hopefully he can take it to 100% or more. On the defensive side of the ball I think it will come down to how well our secondary plays. If they can play good pass defense and provide good run support and tackling I think the defense will be back on par with 2019, maybe even better. Obviously Winfield's playmaking will not be replaced. However, it seems to me ever since he's become a head coach PJ Fleck's teams have been somewhat carried by their offense, driven by their offensive success.

I did some more reading on Sanford last night, it seems all the coaches he's been around have great things to say about him and that he is well thought of and respected. Calling him a great offensive mind, even brilliant. Here are some thoughts/concerns in my opinion.
  • Hard to get a read when he hasn't been at any one place very long (he's been an OC for 4 years at 3 different schools minus last year at Minnesota)
  • He didn't call the plays in his 2 years at Notre Dame
  • The offense regressed significantly in his 2 years as HC at Western Kentucky
  • He called plays his 1 yr at Boise St. but it was Bryan Harsin's offense and Harsin was very involved
  • Please let me know if I'm wrong, but the Stanford, Boise St., and Notre Dame offenses are all similar? and very different from what Fleck has always run?
So, in my opinion we're in for a big unknown. I hope what the opinions of many respected coaches is true, that Sanford is a great offensive mind. David Shaw kept him around, Harsin hired him, Bryan Kelly hired him, Western Kentucky hired him, and Fleck hired him.

Let's hope a full off season with Tanner Morgan and the offense translates to another great offense like the one we had in 2019, or even better. I just want to see progress from 2020. I want to see our offense be able to sustain drives, not be held scoreless for multiple consecutive series, score in the green zone, and close out games.

Finally, I think if the offense meets Sanford's potential we're looking at 9 wins or more. If not, I think we're looking at 6 or 7 wins. Scenario 2 is if the O improves quite a bit but the D flops (mainly the secondary) and limits the Gophs to 6 or 7 wins. Can't wait for the season to start! So excited that we hopefully will have a full 12 game season with fans!!!!! Let's hope the stadium is sold out and rocking for the Gophers on September 2nd!!!! Go Gophers, Ski U Mah, Row the Boat!!!!!
 


Very curious to see the BTN Team's visit to Dinkytown tomorrow. We've seen the ending clip but would like to have the supporting observations behind it.

Cautiously optimistic...
 


Some Day...Maybe said:
I think it's tough to make a win loss prediction this year due to the change at OC. Thought it'd be interesting if people want to make their predictions here, or just give their thoughts on the upcoming season. Maybe it's just me but it seems like the excitement/activity on the Gopherhole still isn't up to what it was prior to the pandemic. Let's hope that this season we can get back to as close to normal as possible.

I know I keep saying it over and over, but I think so much of what determines the Gophers success this season comes down to Mike Sanford Jr. If he can get the offense to 90% of the level of 2019 I think it will be a great season for the Gophers, hopefully he can take it to 100% or more. On the defensive side of the ball I think it will come down to how well our secondary plays. If they can play good pass defense and provide good run support and tackling I think the defense will be back on par with 2019, maybe even better. Obviously Winfield's playmaking will not be replaced. However, it seems to me ever since he's become a head coach PJ Fleck's teams have been somewhat carried by their offense, driven by their offensive success.

I did some more reading on Sanford last night, it seems all the coaches he's been around have great things to say about him and that he is well thought of and respected. Calling him a great offensive mind, even brilliant. Here are some thoughts/concerns in my opinion.
  • Hard to get a read when he hasn't been at any one place very long (he's been an OC for 4 years at 3 different schools minus last year at Minnesota)
  • He didn't call the plays in his 2 years at Notre Dame
  • The offense regressed significantly in his 2 years as HC at Western Kentucky
  • He called plays his 1 yr at Boise St. but it was Bryan Harsin's offense and Harsin was very involved
  • Please let me know if I'm wrong, but the Stanford, Boise St., and Notre Dame offenses are all similar? and very different from what Fleck has always run?
So, in my opinion we're in for a big unknown. I hope what the opinions of many respected coaches is true, that Sanford is a great offensive mind. David Shaw kept him around, Harsin hired him, Bryan Kelly hired him, Western Kentucky hired him, and Fleck hired him.

Let's hope a full off season with Tanner Morgan and the offense translates to another great offense like the one we had in 2019, or even better. I just want to see progress from 2020. I want to see our offense be able to sustain drives, not be held scoreless for multiple consecutive series, score in the green zone, and close out games.

Finally, I think if the offense meets Sanford's potential we're looking at 9 wins or more. If not, I think we're looking at 6 or 7 wins. Scenario 2 is if the O improves quite a bit but the D flops (mainly the secondary) and limits the Gophs to 6 or 7 wins. Can't wait for the season to start! So excited that we hopefully will have a full 12 game season with fans!!!!! Let's hope the stadium is sold out and rocking for the Gophers on September 2nd!!!! Go Gophers, Ski U Mah, Row the Boat!!!!!
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You forgot to mention the strong regression of Utah State's offense and Jordan Love in the one year Sanford called the plays (and was the QB coach) there.

Apologist bring up the change in WR personnel, just as we did here in 2020 (Bateman alone not enough, without TJ).

I hope to the football gods that they're right.
 


MplsGopher said:
You forgot to mention the strong regression of Utah State's offense and Jordan Love in the one year Sanford called the plays (and was the QB coach) there.

Apologist bring up the change in WR personnel, just as we did here in 2020 (Bateman alone not enough, without TJ).

I hope to the football gods that they're right.
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Didn't they replace like 9 starters on offense that season? Not making excuses but I don't know how much of that was due to his coaching.

For me, I am more concerned with the defense taking a step forward, as I think that will translate to more wins in the B1G. Daniel House has stated that the DL is much improved, which could have a cascading effect on the rest of the defense. Let's hope he is right.
 

With our OL and RB depth, and PJs TOP coaching mentality, I think we win six games automatically this year (against the weaker half of our schedule) if we simply run Mo, Potts, Wiley & Williams all day long with an occasional short pass to a TE, and our defense isn’t the worst in the B1G.

The addition of a decent, reasonably diverse passing game PLUS meaningfully improved defensive play (and no key injuries) could get us to 8-9 wins.

Beyond that point, we need a defense that is much improved AND that produces some key, game changing turnovers; we need a FG kicker who can be relied upon outside of 40 yards; we need KO and punt returners who occasionally flip the field; we need the CAB-Jackson-Wright trio to be dominant; we need our TEs and RBs to be actual passing game elements to allow us to efficiently counter when our WRs are blanketed or outnumbered in deep zones; and, like we enjoyed in 2019, we’ll need some timely luck.

Frankly, I think all the pieces are there, the desire is there, and the coaching is there. But remember, the players are just young kids. So, I hope a little bit of luck is there this year, too.
 

The Gophers' prospects come down to either one of two things happening:

(1) The WR position group improving sufficiently so that Tanner can succeed utilizing the limited skill set required in 2019; or

(2) Tanner (or another QB) expanding his skill set so as to be able to succeed with the WR group he has.

That's it. That's basically the season right there. The defense will be sufficient to win games. And the O-line and RB position are each more than solid.

But there's a catch: o-line can nullify an offense, but it cannot make an offense. Time and again it has been shown in the NFL that you are best off to spend your money so as to have a mediocre o-line and dominant skill position players. In other words, you want an o-line good enough to not nullify your offense, and that's it. if you acquire an o-line better than that, you misspent your money (but it must be at least mediocre - so it's a tricky balance).

The best part of the Gophers' offense is a positional group that, by definition, cannot "make" the offense - it can only hinder it or not hinder it. To make an offense really run, it needs skill players that can work together to take whatever the defense is giving (and it is giving something on every down).

In 2019, all Tanner had to do was count the box and see if we had numbers. If we did, then we ran. If not, we passed. And we passed to whichever one of TJ or RB was not double-covered, unless it was a "designed" tunnel screen to CrAB. That's why Tanner "locked into" WR's. He could. He knew exactly where the ball was going prior to the snap. Now it's 2021. Can Tanner go through progressions? Can he go through progressions that have him surveying the whole field? Or can he only progress through levels of receivers pre-arranged to exist in the same small sector of the field (which is what he did last year).

If Wright and CrAB/DJ are, together, good enough the let Tanner know where the ball is going prior to the snap, then it is 2019 all over again. Period. If not, we'll see if Tanner has come into possession of additional QB skills - that's possible too.
 




Gophergrandpa said:
With our OL and RB depth, and PJs TOP coaching mentality, I think we win six games automatically this year (against the weaker half of our schedule) if we simply run Mo, Potts, Wiley & Williams all day long with an occasional short pass to a TE, and our defense isn’t the worst in the B1G.
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Agree. The Gophers have long grudgingly envied Wisconsin and wanted to play like them. This year's team will look more like Wisconsin's formula than anything since at least the Barber and Maroney days. A few staggering stat sheets on the rushing side are coming this fall. Remember the 2019 Nebraska game? We shall see a few of those.

But Wisconsin has always fielded quality defenses too. This thing could land anywhere from 4-8 to 12-0 depending on how well that side of the ball goes.
 

Last year was crazy.. I take 0 stock in it.. gophers win the west... We loose one of the 2 meetings against tOSU...
 

The team that controls the line of scrimmage usually wins. This is the best oline since Mason. The reports about the dline are encouraging. This could be the best group in a long time.
I'm optomistic for the season, 8+ wins. If they can get a couple breaks at the right time, it could be 10+
 

This feels like the first season after 2019... and 2019 started different than it ended...

Sitting in my seat I'll feel a lot like I just got back from the Outback Bowl in a way... but I know I didn't and ... I don't know what to think.
 





fmlizard said:
Agree. The Gophers have long grudgingly envied Wisconsin and wanted to play like them. This year's team will look more like Wisconsin's formula than anything since at least the Barber and Maroney days. A few staggering stat sheets on the rushing side are coming this fall. Remember the 2019 Nebraska game? We shall see a few of those.

But Wisconsin has always fielded quality defenses too. This thing could land anywhere from 4-8 to 12-0 depending on how well that side of the ball goes.
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WI generally fields uber-high-quality defenses … I think PJ is working on that model, too, but it takes several good recruiting classes. Quality DL guys, which you need in abundance, are hard to come by.
 


I agree with Someday…it all depends on the offense. Either we are good enough in time of possession to win that battle in lopsided fashion keeping our defense off the field. Or we score enough points the defense can be just okay and we still win.

The offense has to be good! No reason we can’t run the ball other than dumb play calling with our offensive line. Disagree totally that an oline can’t dominate outcomes.
Defense will be fine but seems unlikely they will have the ability to carry us to compensate for mediocre offense.
 

6-6 would be well below expectations. Also would forecast only 3 B1G wins. Fleck as well as others outside the program are very high on this squad. Fleck has said multiple times this is the best team he has had, and the best recruiting class as well.
 


247sports.com

Don't take it to the bank: Big Ten West predicted finish

Mike Schaefer makes predictions and that almost never goes well
247sports.com 247sports.com

This guy gets it!

No. 1 Minnesota

Once again I’m high on the Gophers. Minnesota starts with the unfortunate task of getting Ohio State, which for a defense that struggled mightily early last year, that’s rough. However this Buckeyes team has to figure out what it is whereas Minnesota largely knows what it wants to do on offense

Minnesota is going to run behind its big offensive line. Then it’s going to hammer the play action pass. Tanner Morgan is a better quarterback when Minnesota gets to play from out front and if the Gophers do that they’re a more challenging team. Probably not with Ohio State, but the rest of the division, it’s going to be a bear.

Minnesota could lose to Ohio State and then possibly be favored in its next five conference games leading up to Iowa. The Gophers have Purdue and Northwestern on the road in that stretch and Nebraska, Maryland and Northwestern all at home.

The season begins again in mid-November. Get two out of three against Iowa, Indiana and Wisconsin — which sounds tougher than it actually is — and the Gophers are likely going to Indy and PJ Fleck will be the toast of the division.
 

I'm on the side that the defense will look completely different. Pinckney and Oliver back and Mafe have me feeling good about things.

To me the season hangs on Tanner Morgan and the passing game... if he can get CAB and Jackson rolling, no worries about Mo. But we all know teams will try to take Mo away. Tanner gets going, we have a Big Ten Championship game on our hands.

Tanner 'getting going' to me means.. 16-22, 250 yards 2 TD's type games.
 

touchdownvikings said:
The Gophers' prospects come down to either one of two things happening:

(1) The WR position group improving sufficiently so that Tanner can succeed utilizing the limited skill set required in 2019; or

(2) Tanner (or another QB) expanding his skill set so as to be able to succeed with the WR group he has.

That's it. That's basically the season right there. The defense will be sufficient to win games. And the O-line and RB position are each more than solid.

But there's a catch: o-line can nullify an offense, but it cannot make an offense. Time and again it has been shown in the NFL that you are best off to spend your money so as to have a mediocre o-line and dominant skill position players. In other words, you want an o-line good enough to not nullify your offense, and that's it. if you acquire an o-line better than that, you misspent your money (but it must be at least mediocre - so it's a tricky balance).

The best part of the Gophers' offense is a positional group that, by definition, cannot "make" the offense - it can only hinder it or not hinder it. To make an offense really run, it needs skill players that can work together to take whatever the defense is giving (and it is giving something on every down).

In 2019, all Tanner had to do was count the box and see if we had numbers. If we did, then we ran. If not, we passed. And we passed to whichever one of TJ or RB was not double-covered, unless it was a "designed" tunnel screen to CrAB. That's why Tanner "locked into" WR's. He could. He knew exactly where the ball was going prior to the snap. Now it's 2021. Can Tanner go through progressions? Can he go through progressions that have him surveying the whole field? Or can he only progress through levels of receivers pre-arranged to exist in the same small sector of the field (which is what he did last year).

If Wright and CrAB/DJ are, together, good enough the let Tanner know where the ball is going prior to the snap, then it is 2019 all over again. Period. If not, we'll see if Tanner has come into possession of additional QB skills - that's possible too.
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I don’t know, I think Bill Belichick has had some of the best offensive lines during his tenure at New England. Also, I think our offense was hindered more by a new OC and a lack of continuity last season more than Tanner Morgan not being able to find receivers. The plays came in late and the play calling didn’t seem to build upon itself. Didn’t seem to have a rhythm.
 

Schlic said:
I'm on the side that the defense will look completely different. Pinckney and Oliver back and Mafe have me feeling good about things.

To me the season hangs on Tanner Morgan and the passing game... if he can get CAB and Jackson rolling, no worries about Mo. But we all know teams will try to take Mo away. Tanner gets going, we have a Big Ten Championship game on our hands.

Tanner 'getting going' to me means.. 16-22, 250 yards 2 TD's type games.
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Don’t forget about Gibbens on D.
 

touchdownvikings said:
But there's a catch: o-line can nullify an offense, but it cannot make an offense. Time and again it has been shown in the NFL that you are best off to spend your money so as to have a mediocre o-line and dominant skill position players. In other words, you want an o-line good enough to not nullify your offense, and that's it. if you acquire an o-line better than that, you misspent your money (but it must be at least mediocre - so it's a tricky balance).
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Huh? Are you using roster management in the NFL as a means to justify the expectations of a college team? That makes no sense. There is no salary cap. If there was no salary cap in the NFL teams would be trying to aquire as much high end talent as they can regardless of position like the Yankees in mlb.

No COACH has ever said "I don't want the oline to be too good"
 

been away due to web site issues
I think the season will be better than most people do.
namely since I dont take anything we saw last year as an indication of what the team will look like this season
OL is upgraded
depth at RB/QB is best we have had in a very long time
WR's are young but a transfer might help as they gain experience and Simon/Fleck will have them ready
upgraded DL and LB
young DB's got experience albeit not a good result in 2020

plus coaching was done in 2020 via Zoom its hard to coach that way and harder to learn that was

plus the civil unrest played a part that going through it was tough but brought the team closer for going through it
 

I tend to avoid predictions because so much can happen to change the fortunes of a team as the days/weeks go on. Something that looked like a sure thing at the start of the season can go to crap and there are always teams that surprise as well.

But I am as excited for this season as I have been for a Gopher season in a long time. 2020 caused a lot of people to forget about 2019 but I am expecting to see a team that much more closely resembles that 2019 squad than the one we saw in 2020.

Fleck knows he has the potential for a special season and he hasn't shied away from it during interviews. You can feel his excitement about this team and what they may be capable of doing.
 

Clark W. Griswold said:
Huh? Are you using roster management in the NFL as a means to justify the expectations of a college team? That makes no sense. There is no salary cap. If there was no salary cap in the NFL teams would be trying to aquire as much high end talent as they can regardless of position like the Yankees in mlb.

No COACH has ever said "I don't want the oline to be too good"
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You're right about the variance of dynamics between collegiate football and the NFL - no salary cap. All things being equal, you'd prefer a better offensive line rather than a less capable one. You'd prefer that any particular positional group be better rather than less capable.

But the salary cap demonstrates something: it forces a team to place a rank-order value relating to how important a particular position is to the overall functioning of an offense. And the o-line is shown to be the least important to the overall functioning of the offense after it has achieved mere competence. If it is incompetent, you will be able to do nothing. If it is excellent, it cannot pass the ball for you. The Gophers have as its strongest positional group a squad that cannot directly produce offensive function.

That is probably a bit overstated because the collegiate game and the NFL are not exactly the same. And I believe a truly dominant o-line goes further in college than it does in the NFL where defensive talent is simply much better any way you measure it. So I think the Gophers will likely be able to simply run over the bottom half of the B1G.

But please recall: the 2019 squad did not have to deal with 8 and 9 man defensive fronts - because TJ and RB kept the other teams honest. And when the Gophers did face loaded boxes, they didn't do so well. How did the Gophers look trying to jam the ball into the end zone against Auburn? They kept getting stuffed (finally threw it in). How did they look trying to run on fourth and short with a loaded box? They got stuffed. It is hard for even a talented o-line to function against a loaded box.

That's what the Gophers will see every game: a loaded box. The defense will simply surrender the second level. Can Tanner take what the defense surrenders if he does not know - before the ball is snapped - how to take it? Can he go through progressions?

Quite simply, we do not have to wonder if Tanner can function effectively if he can know ahead of time where to put the ball - he has shown that to us already. The problem is that such a simplistic state of affairs comes into being really only if you have two true #1 NFL-caliber receivers, each of which are capable of putting up 180+ yards on any defense that isn't committed to double-teaming them all day long. Do the Gophers have that this year? And if not, how will its offense function without that?
 

I wonder if any B10 team will forfeit a game/games this year due to a covid outbreak.
 

touchdownvikings said:
Quite simply, we do not have to wonder if Tanner can function effectively if he can know ahead of time where to put the ball - he has shown that to us already. The problem is that such a simplistic state of affairs comes into being really only if you have two true #1 NFL-caliber receivers, each of which are capable of putting up 180+ yards on any defense that isn't committed to double-teaming them all day long. Do the Gophers have that this year? And if not, how will its offense function without that?
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Do you really believe Morgan never had to make a read or go through a progression in 2019? If so, Ciarrocca may be the greatest OC ever. Since he was fired after one season at PSU, I don't think that is the case. Jeff Brohm wins 4-6 games a year prioritizing offensive "skill" positions above all else.

I am not worried about Tanner Morgan - 2019 second team all B1G, 2020 honorable mention all B1G.

I think the difference between college and pro ball is a lot bigger than you do. The college game is much more complimentary, run/pass and offense/defense. A good oline, running back, qb, and #1 receiver will score enough. I am more concerned about dbs behind Durr than I am about the 2nd and 3rd receivers.
 

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