Your thoughts on the upcoming season

[MNVCGUY]

I wonder if any B10 team will forfeit a game/games this year due to a covid outbreak.

It will be interesting to see if Covid rears its ugly head in regards to games this year. Sounds like the vast majority of our team is vaccinated so hopefully we can avoid the crippling issues we dealt with last year in terms of missing personnel.

 

[MplsGopher]

Sounds like the vast majority of our team is vaccinated

U is mandating it for all students

 

[touchdownvikings]

Do you really believe Morgan never had to make a read or go through a progression in 2019? If so, Ciarrocca may be the greatest OC ever. Since he was fired after one season at PSU, I don't think that is the case. Jeff Brohm wins 4-6 games a year prioritizing offensive "skill" positions above all else.

I am not worried about Tanner Morgan - 2019 second team all B1G, 2020 honorable mention all B1G.

I think the difference between college and pro ball is a lot bigger than you do. The college game is much more complimentary, run/pass and offense/defense. A good oline, running back, qb, and #1 receiver will score enough. I am more concerned about dbs behind Durr than I am about the 2nd and 3rd receivers.

Tanner does not go through progressions very well. Virtually everyone on this board - maybe you too? - has noticed that he locks on to receivers. That didn't matter in 2019: if the box didn't have numbers to permit running the ball, that meant one of Bateman or Johnson was not doubled up. He just looked for where the safety was and determined ahead of time the ball was going to the other guy.

Note that in 2019 in virtually every game one of Bateman or Johnson went for 100+ yards. That's because a given team would see that Bateman went off for a couple of games, decide to double him and take their chances with TJ; the TJ would go off (but Bateman would get almost nothing); then a team would decide to double TJ and take their chances with Bateman, and Bateman would go off; and so on. Tanner just locked on to whichever one wasn't being doubled. And the ball didn't move around too much.

Moreover, the Gophers will be MORE likely to get stuffed in short yardage situations this year because we don't have Seth Green. Seth permitted the RB to become a blocker. Our box count went +1 with Seth in. This year that won't happen, so we'll be at a numerical disadvantage compared to 2019.

Look, I'm very hopeful for this year. We will have 2019 level of success or better if:

(1) the WR's are so good that it is obvious to Tanner what to do with the ball prior to the snap; or

(2) Tanner has improved and can go through progressions.

Either of those may have happened. If not, they'll roll through the lesser teams and struggle against good competition that load the box.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Pretty much every season goes far differently than expected and the odds of that happening again are pretty high. There are too many question marks and new faces on offense, defense, special teams to say otherwise.

I suspect 2020 was an aberration and Morgan’s superb short to midrange accuracy will make a reappearance. Will his receivers be able to separate and/or complete the catch? I don’t know, I haven’t seen a true game breaker type but maybe we don’t need that. CAB is dinged. Really interested to see what happens with the WRs. I hope Tanner doesn’t need to play like a seasoned NFL star to be recognized as a Gopher all timer at the position.

The running game should be excellent. Pray to the football gods Mo stays healthy but once again curious to see how the others are developing behind him.

Lots of praise for the defensive line - very optimistic there. That can make all the difference.

Until proven otherwise still concerned about LB and DB. Once again optimistic the praise for LBs is legit and the soft pedaling I’m hearing of the DBs isn’t necessarily an Achilles heel, ie Nubin, Howden and so on. Very happy to see Oliver back, Gordon should be a standout. Interested to see Cody.

Special teams? No idea. Hopeful. What’s the word there?

In summary, no idea what’s about to happen. Tempering my expectations but cautiously optimistic could be a special year. Beat the Buckeyes and shock the world.

 

[MplsGopher]

I suspect 2020 was an aberration and Morgan’s superb short to midrange accuracy will make a reappearance. Will his receivers be able to separate and/or complete the catch? I don’t know, I haven’t seen a true game breaker type but maybe we don’t need that. CAB is dinged. Really interested to see what happens with the WRs.

Again, someone either forgetting or trying to downplay the difference in protection between 2019 and 2020. Not just talking about scheme, although that was an important part of it.

Our protection was just bad at times in 2020, and Tanner struggled to deal with that when it was.


If we're going to stick with 6 man protections, even send the RB out, Tanner has to get used to that and make quick decisions and get rid of the ball.

He can't Kirk Cousins it ...

 

[Clark W. Griswold]

Tanner does not go through progressions very well. Virtually everyone on this board - maybe you too? - has noticed that he locks on to receivers. That didn't matter in 2019: if the box didn't have numbers to permit running the ball, that meant one of Bateman or Johnson was not doubled up. He just looked for where the safety was and determined ahead of time the ball was going to the other guy.

Note that in 2019 in virtually every game one of Bateman or Johnson went for 100+ yards. That's because a given team would see that Bateman went off for a couple of games, decide to double him and take their chances with TJ; the TJ would go off (but Bateman would get almost nothing); then a team would decide to double TJ and take their chances with Bateman, and Bateman would go off; and so on. Tanner just locked on to whichever one wasn't being doubled. And the ball didn't move around too much.

Moreover, the Gophers will be MORE likely to get stuffed in short yardage situations this year because we don't have Seth Green. Seth permitted the RB to become a blocker. Our box count went +1 with Seth in. This year that won't happen, so we'll be at a numerical disadvantage compared to 2019.

Look, I'm very hopeful for this year. We will have 2019 level of success or better if:

(1) the WR's are so good that it is obvious to Tanner what to do with the ball prior to the snap; or

(2) Tanner has improved and can go through progressions.

Either of those may have happened. If not, they'll roll through the lesser teams and struggle against good competition that load the box.

So the 2019 success and 2020 disappointment was all about the offense? What about defense?

Great qb play in college is not required like it is in the NFL.

I didn't question Tanner's read in 2019. I did in 2020 when he locked onto Bateman. But, Tanner got hit a lot more in 2020 compared to 2019. Also it was a new system installed with limited practices.

Anyone who thinks Tanner is the biggest concern on this team should stick to the qb dominant nfl.

 

[MplsGopher]

I did in 2020 when he locked onto Bateman.

Playing in the slot, for some reason, rather than what worked well in 2019.

Rumors that Tanner had a shoulder injury that prevented those longer throws, and rumors that Bateman came back under the condition of wanting to play in the slot to better showcase himself for the NFL, notwithstanding. They are of course just unconfirmed rumors.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

I saw 6-6 pop up earlier in this thread. 6 or fewer wins would be a pretty bad year. 7-9 wins would be disappointing, we'd be back in Kill/Claeys territory. Given that PJ has had two more years since 2019 to get his guys and his culture instilled, I'm looking for another performance like two years ago that helps make last year look like an aberration.

 

[MplsGopher]

7-9 wins would be disappointing

9 regular season wins would be disappointing, nevermind that PJ had 10 in 2019 and at least a couple of those were damn lucky to win.

Shaking my damn head

 

[1983]

It just this: We play better than average D and we are in the BIG

 

[short ornery norwegian]

No "predictions" - but general thoughts -

biggest areas of concern - WR's, LB play, Defensive back play and special teams.

and I might just put special teams at the top.

Fleck is a big field position guy. If your special teams are losing the field position battle with poor punting, poor kick coverage and poor KO and Punt returns, that puts the team behind the 8-ball.
And - as we all saw last year - if the FG kicker can't make a kick of more than 30 or 35 yds, that forces the offense into different play calls once they cross mid-field.

if the new FG kicker is more reliable and the Punter can improve the hang time and net average, that will go a long way to help make it a good season.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

biggest areas of concern - WR's, LB play, Defensive back play and special teams.

and I might just put special teams at the top.

Funny how that works.

Lots of reasons to be hopeful.

Then I list what I'm concerned about and "wait that's a lot ....".

 

[swingman]

12-0 would not be surprising, 8-4 would be surprising.

Deepest, oldest, most experienced, most talented team I've seen in 40 years. Couldn't have asked for a better slot to take on Ohio State (first week, under the lights at home, national TV, first game in two years for fans, OSU replacing 16 starters, MN returning 30 starters). Get WI and NE at home. Road games at NW and IN, neither a den of rabid fans.

2019 2nd team All-Big qb in fifth year; NFL prospect. Nice depth at qb, including a former starter, couple of four stars, one of EP's best.

2020 Big Ten RB of year in fifth year NFL prospect. Nice depth with experience, also some talented youth at rb.

2020, 2019 All Big 3rd team, 2018 All Big HM Andries back for year 5, NFL prospect

2020 All Big 3rd team, 2018, 2019 AllBig HM Olson back for year 6; NFL prospect if not med school

2019, 2020 All Big HM Schlueter back for sixth year; NFL prospect

2020 All Big HM Schmitz back for year five; NFL prospect

2018, 2019 All Big HM Faalele back for year 4, NFL prospect

2019 All Big HM Dunlap back for year 4, NFL prospect,

Ruschmeyer returning starter in year 5, Boe, Ersery, Shaw return with starts.

Ko Kieft back for year 6...grown man physicality, may get NFL looks as blocker

Spann-Ford in year four; athletic TE who may offer another dimension, Fleck says great improvements in physicality, skills. Some high end TE recruits on campus.

AutmanBell in year five, 1,000 yard career, sure hands, sure routes, clutch. NFL looks?

Four star recruit Daniel Jackson got great experience as true frosh.

Exp vet Clay Geary back for year six.

Four star Dylan Wright transferred in from A&M, great reviews.

MBS in year three, some nice plays vs WI year end 2020.

Hand picked recruits from high end programs Emilien, Brockington and Boyd competing for time.

Kickers making field goals from 45-55. Punters bombing 50 yarders. Dropping inside the ten. Long snapper a third year starter.

Fleck year five, Simon year five, Callahan year five, Burns year five, S and C, GM, Personnel, recruiting staff all year five. AD been here full run. President from SEC supports football. Patterson year four. Rossi year five. Wenger year five. Best OC resume ever hired here?

Clemson, ND and NC state transfers in years 6-7 anchoring d-line. SEC type talent Carter and four star Cheney both now in year three beside them. 5 year vets on the edge, Mafe an NFL prospect. Rush a fourth year guy. Great youth pushing for time at de, dt.

Big transfer at lb, Gibbens, getting rave reviews. Oliver a big return from injury at lb. Experienced vet Sori Marin in year four. Talented youth who started, played a lot last year will be pushing for playing time at lb this year

Six year vet and NFL prospect Durr back, fourth year starter Howden back, some NFL interest. Coaches praising development of four star returning starter Nubin. High praise as well for NFL talent, fastest man in Georgia T-Smith, who started games back in 2018. Fifth year experience at nickel in Harris. Sixth year experience in Howard. Young Mr Mississippi pushing for time. Dixon, Glaze pushing for time. Sixth year vet in Swenson. Harasymiak and Haynes both former head coaches. Harasymiak almost hired by Buffalo off-season. Haynes also a former DC at some big time powerhouses.

Ohio State, Colorado, Iowa, NW, Indiana, WI all lost a ton of talent...CO just lost QB...Purdue, Illini, Neb have big issues to resolve...BG and Miami not great MAC teams....Gophs lost very little, actually got back guys from opt out and injury...crushed the portal.

Best facilities ever for strength, health, practice, playing. Best academics ever. Best on campus experience ever with more students and young people living on or adjacent to campus than ever.

Book Indy now.

 

[MplsGopher]

12-0 would not be surprising, 8-4 would be surprising.

Deepest, oldest, most experienced, most talented team I've seen in 40 years. Couldn't have asked for a better slot to take on Ohio State (first week, under the lights at home, national TV, first game in two years for fans, OSU replacing 16 starters, MN returning 30 starters). Get WI and NE at home. Road games at NW and IN, neither a den of rabid fans.

2019 2nd team All-Big qb in fifth year; NFL prospect. Nice depth at qb, including a former starter, couple of four stars, one of EP's best.

2020 Big Ten RB of year in fifth year NFL prospect. Nice depth with experience, also some talented youth at rb.

2020, 2019 All Big 3rd team, 2018 All Big HM Andries back for year 5, NFL prospect

2020 All Big 3rd team, 2018, 2019 AllBig HM Olson back for year 6; NFL prospect if not med school

2019, 2020 All Big HM Schlueter back for sixth year; NFL prospect

2020 All Big HM Schmitz back for year five; NFL prospect

2018, 2019 All Big HM Faalele back for year 4, NFL prospect

2019 All Big HM Dunlap back for year 4, NFL prospect,

Ruschmeyer returning starter in year 5, Boe, Ersery, Shaw return with starts.

Ko Kieft back for year 6...grown man physicality, may get NFL looks as blocker

Spann-Ford in year four; athletic TE who may offer another dimension, Fleck says great improvements in physicality, skills.

AutmanBell in year five, 1,000 yard career, sure hands, sure routes, clutch. NFL looks?

Four star recruit Daniel Jackson got great experience as true frosh.

Exp vet Clay Geary back for year six.

Four star Dylan Wright transferred in from A&M, great reviews.

MBS in year three, some nice plays vs WI year end 2020.

Hand picked recruits from high end programs Emilien, Brockington and Boyd competing for time.

Kickers making field goals from 45-55. Punters bombing 50 yarders. Dropping inside the ten.

Fleck year five, Simon year five, Callahan year five, Burns year five, S and C, GM, Personnel, recruiting staff all year five. AD been here full run. President from SEC supports football. Patterson year four. Rossi year five. Wenger year five.

Clemson, ND and NC state transfers in years 6-7 anchoring d-line. SEC type talent Carter and four star Cheney both now in year three beside them. 5 year vets on the edge, Mafe an NFL prospect. Rush a fourth year guy. Great youth pushing for time at de, dt.

Big transfer at lb, Gibbens, getting rave reviews. Oliver a big return from injury at lb. Experienced vet Sori Marin in year four. Talented youth who started, played a lot last year will be pushing for playing time at lb this year

Six year vet and NFL prospect Durr back, fourth year starter Howden back, some NFL interest. Coaches praising development of four star returning starter Nubin. High praise as well for NFL talent, fastest man in Georgia T-Smith, who started games back in 2018. Fifth year experience at nickel in Harris. Sixth year experience in Howard. Young Mr Mississippi pushing for time. Dixon, Glaze pushing for time. Sixth year vet in Swenson. Harasymiak and Haynes both former head coaches. Harasymiak almost hired by Buffalo off-season. Haynes also a former DC at some big time powerhouses.

Ohio State, Colorado, Iowa, NW, Indiana, WI all lost a ton of talent...CO just lost QB...Purdue, Illini, Neb have big issues to resolve...BG and Miami not great MAC teams....Gophs lost very little, actually got back guys from opt out and injury...crushed the portal.

Best facilities ever for strength, health, practice, playing. Best academics ever. Best on campus experience ever with more students and young people living on or adjacent to campus than ever.

Book Indy now.

Nothing at all like this list can be made for every other Big Ten team.

 

[jonnyganas]

12-0 would not be surprising, 8-4 would be surprising.

Deepest, oldest, most experienced, most talented team I've seen in 40 years. Couldn't have asked for a better slot to take on Ohio State (first week, under the lights at home, national TV, first game in two years for fans, OSU replacing 16 starters, MN returning 30 starters). Get WI and NE at home. Road games at NW and IN, neither a den of rabid fans.

2019 2nd team All-Big qb in fifth year; NFL prospect. Nice depth at qb, including a former starter, couple of four stars, one of EP's best.

2020 Big Ten RB of year in fifth year NFL prospect. Nice depth with experience, also some talented youth at rb.

2020, 2019 All Big 3rd team, 2018 All Big HM Andries back for year 5, NFL prospect

2020 All Big 3rd team, 2018, 2019 AllBig HM Olson back for year 6; NFL prospect if not med school

2019, 2020 All Big HM Schlueter back for sixth year; NFL prospect

2020 All Big HM Schmitz back for year five; NFL prospect

2018, 2019 All Big HM Faalele back for year 4, NFL prospect

2019 All Big HM Dunlap back for year 4, NFL prospect,

Ruschmeyer returning starter in year 5, Boe, Ersery, Shaw return with starts.

Ko Kieft back for year 6...grown man physicality, may get NFL looks as blocker

Spann-Ford in year four; athletic TE who may offer another dimension, Fleck says great improvements in physicality, skills. Some high end TE recruits on campus.

AutmanBell in year five, 1,000 yard career, sure hands, sure routes, clutch. NFL looks?

Four star recruit Daniel Jackson got great experience as true frosh.

Exp vet Clay Geary back for year six.

Four star Dylan Wright transferred in from A&M, great reviews.

MBS in year three, some nice plays vs WI year end 2020.

Hand picked recruits from high end programs Emilien, Brockington and Boyd competing for time.

Kickers making field goals from 45-55. Punters bombing 50 yarders. Dropping inside the ten. Long snapper a third year starter.

Fleck year five, Simon year five, Callahan year five, Burns year five, S and C, GM, Personnel, recruiting staff all year five. AD been here full run. President from SEC supports football. Patterson year four. Rossi year five. Wenger year five.

Clemson, ND and NC state transfers in years 6-7 anchoring d-line. SEC type talent Carter and four star Cheney both now in year three beside them. 5 year vets on the edge, Mafe an NFL prospect. Rush a fourth year guy. Great youth pushing for time at de, dt.

Big transfer at lb, Gibbens, getting rave reviews. Oliver a big return from injury at lb. Experienced vet Sori Marin in year four. Talented youth who started, played a lot last year will be pushing for playing time at lb this year

Six year vet and NFL prospect Durr back, fourth year starter Howden back, some NFL interest. Coaches praising development of four star returning starter Nubin. High praise as well for NFL talent, fastest man in Georgia T-Smith, who started games back in 2018. Fifth year experience at nickel in Harris. Sixth year experience in Howard. Young Mr Mississippi pushing for time. Dixon, Glaze pushing for time. Sixth year vet in Swenson. Harasymiak and Haynes both former head coaches. Harasymiak almost hired by Buffalo off-season. Haynes also a former DC at some big time powerhouses.

Ohio State, Colorado, Iowa, NW, Indiana, WI all lost a ton of talent...CO just lost QB...Purdue, Illini, Neb have big issues to resolve...BG and Miami not great MAC teams....Gophs lost very little, actually got back guys from opt out and injury...crushed the portal.

Best facilities ever for strength, health, practice, playing. Best academics ever. Best on campus experience ever with more students and young people living on or adjacent to campus than ever.

Book Indy now.

That's the swingman I know and love. Every post is a roster rundown.

 

[MplsGopher]

Here is something that swing will absolutely relish:

whoever does the roster on gophersports .com had to come up for a new term for the class of Justus Harris, since he technically never took a redshirt, is not a grad student, and yet is using his covid eligibility waiver to play for a fifth straight season.

So they called him a "fifth year".

https://gophersports.com/sports/football/roster/justus-harris/19500

 

[Pompous Elitist]

12-0 would not be surprising, 8-4 would be surprising.

Deepest, oldest, most experienced, most talented team I've seen in 40 years. Couldn't have asked for a better slot to take on Ohio State (first week, under the lights at home, national TV, first game in two years for fans, OSU replacing 16 starters, MN returning 30 starters). Get WI and NE at home. Road games at NW and IN, neither a den of rabid fans.

2019 2nd team All-Big qb in fifth year; NFL prospect. Nice depth at qb, including a former starter, couple of four stars, one of EP's best.

2020 Big Ten RB of year in fifth year NFL prospect. Nice depth with experience, also some talented youth at rb.

2020, 2019 All Big 3rd team, 2018 All Big HM Andries back for year 5, NFL prospect

2020 All Big 3rd team, 2018, 2019 AllBig HM Olson back for year 6; NFL prospect if not med school

2019, 2020 All Big HM Schlueter back for sixth year; NFL prospect

2020 All Big HM Schmitz back for year five; NFL prospect

2018, 2019 All Big HM Faalele back for year 4, NFL prospect

2019 All Big HM Dunlap back for year 4, NFL prospect,

Ruschmeyer returning starter in year 5, Boe, Ersery, Shaw return with starts.

Ko Kieft back for year 6...grown man physicality, may get NFL looks as blocker

Spann-Ford in year four; athletic TE who may offer another dimension, Fleck says great improvements in physicality, skills. Some high end TE recruits on campus.

AutmanBell in year five, 1,000 yard career, sure hands, sure routes, clutch. NFL looks?

Four star recruit Daniel Jackson got great experience as true frosh.

Exp vet Clay Geary back for year six.

Four star Dylan Wright transferred in from A&M, great reviews.

MBS in year three, some nice plays vs WI year end 2020.

Hand picked recruits from high end programs Emilien, Brockington and Boyd competing for time.

Kickers making field goals from 45-55. Punters bombing 50 yarders. Dropping inside the ten. Long snapper a third year starter.

Fleck year five, Simon year five, Callahan year five, Burns year five, S and C, GM, Personnel, recruiting staff all year five. AD been here full run. President from SEC supports football. Patterson year four. Rossi year five. Wenger year five. Best OC resume ever hired here?

Clemson, ND and NC state transfers in years 6-7 anchoring d-line. SEC type talent Carter and four star Cheney both now in year three beside them. 5 year vets on the edge, Mafe an NFL prospect. Rush a fourth year guy. Great youth pushing for time at de, dt.

Big transfer at lb, Gibbens, getting rave reviews. Oliver a big return from injury at lb. Experienced vet Sori Marin in year four. Talented youth who started, played a lot last year will be pushing for playing time at lb this year

Six year vet and NFL prospect Durr back, fourth year starter Howden back, some NFL interest. Coaches praising development of four star returning starter Nubin. High praise as well for NFL talent, fastest man in Georgia T-Smith, who started games back in 2018. Fifth year experience at nickel in Harris. Sixth year experience in Howard. Young Mr Mississippi pushing for time. Dixon, Glaze pushing for time. Sixth year vet in Swenson. Harasymiak and Haynes both former head coaches. Harasymiak almost hired by Buffalo off-season. Haynes also a former DC at some big time powerhouses.

Ohio State, Colorado, Iowa, NW, Indiana, WI all lost a ton of talent...CO just lost QB...Purdue, Illini, Neb have big issues to resolve...BG and Miami not great MAC teams....Gophs lost very little, actually got back guys from opt out and injury...crushed the portal.

Best facilities ever for strength, health, practice, playing. Best academics ever. Best on campus experience ever with more students and young people living on or adjacent to campus than ever.

Book Indy now.

Troll


/s

 

[touchdownvikings]

So the 2019 success and 2020 disappointment was all about the offense? What about defense?

Great qb play in college is not required like it is in the NFL.

I didn't question Tanner's read in 2019. I did in 2020 when he locked onto Bateman. But, Tanner got hit a lot more in 2020 compared to 2019. Also it was a new system installed with limited practices.

Anyone who thinks Tanner is the biggest concern on this team should stick to the qb dominant nfl.

No - I don't think 2019 was all about offense. The defense was pretty effective too. Not dominant, but effective. And the offense played complimentary football more than it didn't.

I think 2021 comes down to the passing game because I don't think it is a stretch to suppose that this year's defense will be approximately as effective. Gibbens and Oliver will strengthen the LB corps almost definitely. The d-line will be strong for reasons you are familiar with. Barring catastrophic injuries, it'll be a sound defense. So I don't think that part of the equation is in question.

I also don't think there can be much question that the Gophers have the tools for an effective - very effective - running game. A blind man can see that.

But here't the thing: Tanner didn't "regress" in 2020, he simply was called upon to use skills he did not develop in 2019. That's it. Full stop.

In 2019, 70% of all passes went to his top 2 receivers. This is an abnormal concentration. He did not have to move the ball around a lot, and he in fact did not do so. And the outcome was great.

In 2020, 54% of all passes went to his top 2 receivers. (This is a fairly typical figure for a football team.) He had to move the ball around a lot more. And the outcome was not as good.

2019 was vastly simpler for Tanner and he was good enough to make the most of it. 2020 was more difficult. More skills needed to be exercised, and he struggled a bit. That may actually be a good thing. I think Tanner is a high character guy who learns from experience. I suspect last year will have made him better at moving through progressions. And I also think CrAB and DJ will each be better too. If the improvement is enough for them to seize what defenses give them, this team will be better than the 2019 team. Period. If not, this team will have many components that are better than the 2019 team, but as a gestalt, it will not be as effective.

 

[PMWinSTP]

12-0 would not be surprising, 8-4 would be surprising.

Deepest, oldest, most experienced, most talented team I've seen in 40 years. Couldn't have asked for a better slot to take on Ohio State (first week, under the lights at home, national TV, first game in two years for fans, OSU replacing 16 starters, MN returning 30 starters). Get WI and NE at home. Road games at NW and IN, neither a den of rabid fans.

2019 2nd team All-Big qb in fifth year; NFL prospect. Nice depth at qb, including a former starter, couple of four stars, one of EP's best.

2020 Big Ten RB of year in fifth year NFL prospect. Nice depth with experience, also some talented youth at rb.

2020, 2019 All Big 3rd team, 2018 All Big HM Andries back for year 5, NFL prospect

2020 All Big 3rd team, 2018, 2019 AllBig HM Olson back for year 6; NFL prospect if not med school

2019, 2020 All Big HM Schlueter back for sixth year; NFL prospect

2020 All Big HM Schmitz back for year five; NFL prospect

2018, 2019 All Big HM Faalele back for year 4, NFL prospect

2019 All Big HM Dunlap back for year 4, NFL prospect,

Ruschmeyer returning starter in year 5, Boe, Ersery, Shaw return with starts.

Ko Kieft back for year 6...grown man physicality, may get NFL looks as blocker

Spann-Ford in year four; athletic TE who may offer another dimension, Fleck says great improvements in physicality, skills. Some high end TE recruits on campus.

AutmanBell in year five, 1,000 yard career, sure hands, sure routes, clutch. NFL looks?

Four star recruit Daniel Jackson got great experience as true frosh.

Exp vet Clay Geary back for year six.

Four star Dylan Wright transferred in from A&M, great reviews.

MBS in year three, some nice plays vs WI year end 2020.

Hand picked recruits from high end programs Emilien, Brockington and Boyd competing for time.

Kickers making field goals from 45-55. Punters bombing 50 yarders. Dropping inside the ten. Long snapper a third year starter.

Fleck year five, Simon year five, Callahan year five, Burns year five, S and C, GM, Personnel, recruiting staff all year five. AD been here full run. President from SEC supports football. Patterson year four. Rossi year five. Wenger year five. Best OC resume ever hired here?

Clemson, ND and NC state transfers in years 6-7 anchoring d-line. SEC type talent Carter and four star Cheney both now in year three beside them. 5 year vets on the edge, Mafe an NFL prospect. Rush a fourth year guy. Great youth pushing for time at de, dt.

Big transfer at lb, Gibbens, getting rave reviews. Oliver a big return from injury at lb. Experienced vet Sori Marin in year four. Talented youth who started, played a lot last year will be pushing for playing time at lb this year

Six year vet and NFL prospect Durr back, fourth year starter Howden back, some NFL interest. Coaches praising development of four star returning starter Nubin. High praise as well for NFL talent, fastest man in Georgia T-Smith, who started games back in 2018. Fifth year experience at nickel in Harris. Sixth year experience in Howard. Young Mr Mississippi pushing for time. Dixon, Glaze pushing for time. Sixth year vet in Swenson. Harasymiak and Haynes both former head coaches. Harasymiak almost hired by Buffalo off-season. Haynes also a former DC at some big time powerhouses.

Ohio State, Colorado, Iowa, NW, Indiana, WI all lost a ton of talent...CO just lost QB...Purdue, Illini, Neb have big issues to resolve...BG and Miami not great MAC teams....Gophs lost very little, actually got back guys from opt out and injury...crushed the portal.

Best facilities ever for strength, health, practice, playing. Best academics ever. Best on campus experience ever with more students and young people living on or adjacent to campus than ever.

Book Indy now.

Waiting for all the hand-wringers to chime in on how bare the cupboards will be in 2022...

 

[Thomasthetank]

Tanner does not go through progressions very well. Virtually everyone on this board - maybe you too? - has noticed that he locks on to receivers. That didn't matter in 2019: if the box didn't have numbers to permit running the ball, that meant one of Bateman or Johnson was not doubled up. He just looked for where the safety was and determined ahead of time the ball was going to the other guy.

Note that in 2019 in virtually every game one of Bateman or Johnson went for 100+ yards. That's because a given team would see that Bateman went off for a couple of games, decide to double him and take their chances with TJ; the TJ would go off (but Bateman would get almost nothing); then a team would decide to double TJ and take their chances with Bateman, and Bateman would go off; and so on. Tanner just locked on to whichever one wasn't being doubled. And the ball didn't move around too much.

Moreover, the Gophers will be MORE likely to get stuffed in short yardage situations this year because we don't have Seth Green. Seth permitted the RB to become a blocker. Our box count went +1 with Seth in. This year that won't happen, so we'll be at a numerical disadvantage compared to 2019.

Look, I'm very hopeful for this year. We will have 2019 level of success or better if:

(1) the WR's are so good that it is obvious to Tanner what to do with the ball prior to the snap; or

(2) Tanner has improved and can go through progressions.

Either of those may have happened. If not, they'll roll through the lesser teams and struggle against good competition that load the box.

Pretty good analysis here. However I tend to disagree on a few things:
1. As you resended later, college football is won on the line. National championship are won w skill players but conference championships are won with OL and DL.

Think of all the s***** qbs and wrs that WI had through the yrs and they won alot of games and alot of championships.

2. Seth Green was an amazing leader and good player but the green line became so predictable. This yr with our OL being so good, going Green line would take away alot of opportunities for our offense. We dont need Seth to bulldoze for 2-3 yards. Spread them out and keep the pass option available and then hand it off to the best RB in the B1G.

 

[Clark W. Griswold]

No - I don't think 2019 was all about offense. The defense was pretty effective too. Not dominant, but effective. And the offense played complimentary football more than it didn't.

I think 2021 comes down to the passing game because I don't think it is a stretch to suppose that this year's defense will be approximately as effective. Gibbens and Oliver will strengthen the LB corps almost definitely. The d-line will be strong for reasons you are familiar with. Barring catastrophic injuries, it'll be a sound defense. So I don't think that part of the equation is in question.

I also don't think there can be much question that the Gophers have the tools for an effective - very effective - running game. A blind man can see that.

But here't the thing: Tanner didn't "regress" in 2020, he simply was called upon to use skills he did not develop in 2019. That's it. Full stop.

In 2019, 70% of all passes went to his top 2 receivers. This is an abnormal concentration. He did not have to move the ball around a lot, and he in fact did not do so. And the outcome was great.

In 2020, 54% of all passes went to his top 2 receivers. (This is a fairly typical figure for a football team.) He had to move the ball around a lot more. And the outcome was not as good.

2019 was vastly simpler for Tanner and he was good enough to make the most of it. 2020 was more difficult. More skills needed to be exercised, and he struggled a bit. That may actually be a good thing. I think Tanner is a high character guy who learns from experience. I suspect last year will have made him better at moving through progressions. And I also think CrAB and DJ will each be better too. If the improvement is enough for them to seize what defenses give them, this team will be better than the 2019 team. Period. If not, this team will have many components that are better than the 2019 team, but as a gestalt, it will not be as effective.

I just can't see how a two time all-B1G qb is the biggest question mark for any team? Those stats you have raise some flags, but those alone don't tell us everything. Those were 2 different schemes, so the targets could just be a product of the systems/play-calling. There are too many variables to pin any ineffectiveness solely on one person. Only the coaches know who or what was to blame. Also, what was the pressure rate in 2020 compared to 2019?

Three of the most high pressure and important throws of 2019 were 3rd and 4th downs to Douglas against Georgia Southern and 4th down to CrAB at Fresno. Any miss on those plays and the games would likely have been lost. Morgan went away from Bateman and Johnson. If you can go through a progression with the game on the line, you can do it in the second quarter.

If everything else is working and it really comes down to Morgan we'll be fine.

 

[MplsGopher]

Three of the most high pressure and important throws of 2019 were 3rd and 4th downs to Douglas against Georgia Southern and 4th down to CrAB at Fresno. Any miss on those plays and the games would likely have been lost. Morgan went away from Bateman and Johnson. If you can go through a progression with the game on the line, you can do it in the second quarter.

Key there however (though feel free to bring up the replays to disprove this) -- I'm assuming he had big time in a clean pocket to wait for those routes to develop and hit them.

Just wasn't happening like that in 2020.

 

[touchdownvikings]

I just can't see how a two time all-B1G qb is the biggest question mark for any team? Those stats you have raise some flags, but those alone don't tell us everything. Those were 2 different schemes, so the targets could just be a product of the systems/play-calling. There are too many variables to pin any ineffectiveness solely on one person. Only the coaches know who or what was to blame. Also, what was the pressure rate in 2020 compared to 2019?

Three of the most high pressure and important throws of 2019 were 3rd and 4th downs to Douglas against Georgia Southern and 4th down to CrAB at Fresno. Any miss on those plays and the games would likely have been lost. Morgan went away from Bateman and Johnson. If you can go through a progression with the game on the line, you can do it in the second quarter.

If everything else is working and it really comes down to Morgan we'll be fine.

if you're right, this will be a better team than 2019. Every aspect of this team - other than passing, maybe - will be equal to or better than 2019.

If you're right about the passing game, then the Gophers will likely win the West and perhaps more. I don't think that's impossible. For one thing, Wright may be the real deal and Fleck may be sort of suppressing that news. And if Tanner already knows how to go through progressions, then the passing game will be effective, and we will put opponents in the same box that we did in 2019.

So, if you're right, this will be an exciting year!

 

[swingman]

The take that offense can only improve on better QB or better WR play isn't really accurate.

Here's at least three other things to factor in:

From practice reports, the offense reportedly will:
a) work the TEs into the passing game more
b) work the RBs into the passing game more
c) use the QB as a run threat more often

all three of these things can make a QB much more effective in the passing game without any big skill leap in WR play or progression reading....

also, having everyone except Witham on the OL/TE pass blocking unit from 2019 back and two years bigger, stronger, fitter, more experienced can make the QB look better

if 2021 Mo is better than 2019 Mo, and some combo of Potts, Wiley, Williams, Ky, Irving brings what Smith and Brooks brought, offense can be better.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Tanner does not go through progressions very well. Virtually everyone on this board - maybe you too? - has noticed that he locks on to receivers. That didn't matter in 2019: if the box didn't have numbers to permit running the ball, that meant one of Bateman or Johnson was not doubled up. He just looked for where the safety was and determined ahead of time the ball was going to the other guy.

Note that in 2019 in virtually every game one of Bateman or Johnson went for 100+ yards. That's because a given team would see that Bateman went off for a couple of games, decide to double him and take their chances with TJ; the TJ would go off (but Bateman would get almost nothing); then a team would decide to double TJ and take their chances with Bateman, and Bateman would go off; and so on. Tanner just locked on to whichever one wasn't being doubled. And the ball didn't move around too much.

Moreover, the Gophers will be MORE likely to get stuffed in short yardage situations this year because we don't have Seth Green. Seth permitted the RB to become a blocker. Our box count went +1 with Seth in. This year that won't happen, so we'll be at a numerical disadvantage compared to 2019.

Look, I'm very hopeful for this year. We will have 2019 level of success or better if:

(1) the WR's are so good that it is obvious to Tanner what to do with the ball prior to the snap; or

(2) Tanner has improved and can go through progressions.

Either of those may have happened. If not, they'll roll through the lesser teams and struggle against good competition that load the box.

I think you are not crediting comments by the OC, Fleck and Tanner that the passing game this year will be designed to create more “distribution.” Tanner will be targeting WRs, of course, but if they are blanketed, we will shift gears and throw to TEs and to RBs.

We have some very good WRs, but it is unlikely that we have something resembling 2019’s Johnson-Bateman-CAB triad. So, you distribute the ball more widely; giving more of your playmakers the opportunity to do something “in space.”

I predict Tanner’s completion rate in this system (perhaps excluding the OSU game) will be 66% or above; his yards per completion will be lower than 2019—because more distribution means fewer long, downfield passes—unless there is a lot of YAC by TEs and RBs.

Such a system is more conducive to the talent we have this year, which simply isn’t as concentrated at WR as in 2019. This broad distribution system is also conducive to our ability to maintain long, grinding drives and TOP advantages (shorter, higher percentage, safety valve passes) if, as we can expect, Mo will be facing bad numbers in the box on many plays. Shorter, high percentage passes are essentially just alternative running plays.

If we try to play the 2019 vertical-pass heavy offensive scheme with this roster (without Johnson/Bateman), I think you are right: Tanner’s performance will suffer. But, honestly, I think PJ and the OC are committed to tweaking the passing game’s focus to, through broader distribution, maximize the strengths of this year’s roster.

 

[Some Day...Maybe]

I just can't see how a two time all-B1G qb is the biggest question mark for any team? Those stats you have raise some flags, but those alone don't tell us everything. Those were 2 different schemes, so the targets could just be a product of the systems/play-calling. There are too many variables to pin any ineffectiveness solely on one person. Only the coaches know who or what was to blame. Also, what was the pressure rate in 2020 compared to 2019?

Three of the most high pressure and important throws of 2019 were 3rd and 4th downs to Douglas against Georgia Southern and 4th down to CrAB at Fresno. Any miss on those plays and the games would likely have been lost. Morgan went away from Bateman and Johnson. If you can go through a progression with the game on the line, you can do it in the second quarter.

If everything else is working and it really comes down to Morgan we'll be fine.

The throw to CrAB against Fresno was his #1 read on the play. It was designed to go to him. I don’t think it was progressions that hurt Tanner in 2020, but we’ll soon find out.

 

[touchdownvikings]

The throw to CrAB against Fresno was his #1 read on the play. It was designed to go to him. I don’t think it was progressions that hurt Tanner in 2020, but we’ll soon find out.

I was going to post the same thing, but thought I had made points sufficiently. (CrAB specifically said in the postgame interview that the call to throw the ball to him was made by PJ during the preceding timeout. It wasn't the result of Tanner going through any sort of progression.)

 

[hungan1]

Agree. The Gophers have long grudgingly envied Wisconsin and wanted to play like them. This year's team will look more like Wisconsin's formula than anything since at least the Barber and Maroney days. A few staggering stat sheets on the rushing side are coming this fall. Remember the 2019 Nebraska game? We shall see a few of those.

But Wisconsin has always fielded quality defenses too. This thing could land anywhere from 4-8 to 12-0 depending on how well that side of the ball goes.

Indefatigably, it's a slow zig-zag, but it is improving! Winning a title will cure whatever ails recruiting. PJ Fleck is getting closer. Credit goes to his thinking big.

 

[GhostofBronko]

PJ Fleck's last class looks pretty on Defense.

It's not a beauty contest.

 

[Taji34]

I think we win the west this year. The OSU game will tell us a lot. If we win that game, dare I say we run the table and have a legitimate chance at a CFP appearance depending on the outcome of the B1G championship.