You want a "magic number" for Gophers to hear name called on Selection Sunday? Go with 22

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SelectionSunday

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Looking at the Gophers' 2024-25 schedule, I feel comfortable saying a 22-9 regular season record would earn the Gophers "lock" status into the NCAA Tournament, regardless what follows at the Big Ten Tournament.

Note that this season I broke it down more by home & road and non-conference & conference rather than trying to project exactly where each team will finish in the Big Ten standings. The 18-team conference makes that a mad science experiment!

I've broken the schedule down into 7 "buckets" (as Bleed likes to call 'em). This is one way to get to those 22 wins, but put in its simplest terms I'd just say go 10-1 in the non-conference & 12-8 in the Big Ten and there will be not a thing to worry about.

THE NON-CONFERENCE
Cupcake City (go 7-0; currently 4-0)
The Gophers are favored by double digits in Bart Torvik's preseason game-by-game projections.

Oral Roberts (Won by 23)
Cleveland State (Won by 11)
Omaha (Won by 4)
Central Michigan (Won by 3)
Dec. 1: Bethune-Cookman
Dec. 21: Fairleigh Dickinson
Dec. 29: Morgan State

Tricky-Dicky (go 2-0; finished 1-1)
Gophers will be favored, but be very careful here.

Yale (Won by 3)
North Texas (Lost by 3)

Meat & Potatoes Bracket (go 1-1; finish 0-2)
Winning the 4-team ESPN Events Invitational would pretty much assure the non-conference portion of the slate has been a success, but the Gophers must make sure they get out of Orlando with a win. Florida & Wake Forest are the headliners, but the Gophers' semifinal opponent (Wichita State) could pose some problems, as well.

vs. Wichita State (Lost by 2)
vs. Wake Forest (Lost by 6)

THE BIG TEN GRINDER
Take Care of Barn Business (go 3-0)
These are three teams the Gophers could be battling to get a spot in the 15-team Big Ten Tournament. Can't slip up here.

Feb. 1: Washington
Feb. 22: Penn State
Feb. 25: Northwestern

Top Half Home Cookin' (go 4-3)
All your wins can't come vs. teams you're expected to beat. Do some damage at home.

Dec. 4: Michigan State
Jan. 2: Purdue
Jan. 6: Ohio State
Jan. 16: Michigan
Jan. 25: Oregon
Feb. 8: Illinois
March 5: Wisconsin

Winnable Roadkill (go 3-3)
These are the Gophers' most winnable true road games. If you're any good at all, you need to get half of 'em.

Jan. 10: @ Wisconsin
Jan. 13: @ Maryland
Jan. 21: @ Iowa
Feb. 4: @ Penn State
Feb. 15: @ USC
March 1: @ Nebraska

"Big Boy Pants" Roadies (go 2-2)
Every resume has to have a couple "signature" wins. Here's where the Gophers must earn their big boy pants.

Dec. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 28: @ Michigan State
Feb. 18: @ UCLA
March 9: @ Rutgers

Comments are always welcome.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Looking at the Gophers' 2024-25 schedule, I feel comfortable saying a 22-9 regular season record would earn the Gophers "lock" status into the NCAA Tournament, regardless what follows at the Big Ten Tournament.

Note that this season I broke it down more by home & road and non-conference & conference rather than trying to project exactly where each team will finish in the Big Ten standings. The 18-team conference makes that a mad science experiment!

I've broken the schedule down into 7 "buckets" (as Bleed likes to call 'em). This is one way to get to those 22 wins, but put in its simplest terms I'd just say go 10-1 in the non-conference & 12-8 in the Big Ten and there will be not a thing to worry about.

THE NON-CONFERENCE
Cupcake City (must go 7-0)
The Gophers are favored by double digits in Bart Torvik's preseason game-by-game projections.

Nov. 6: Oral Roberts
Nov. 9: Omaha
Nov. 19: Cleveland State
Nov. 25: Central Michigan
Dec. 1: Bethune-Cookman
Dec. 21: Fairleigh Dickinson
Dec. 29: Morgan State

Tricky Home Games (go 2-0)
Gophers will be favored, but be very careful here.

Nov. 13: North Texas
Nov. 16: Yale

ESPN Events Invitational (go 1-1)
Winning this 4-team bracketed tournament would pretty much assure the non-conference portion of the slate has been a success, but the Gophers must make sure they get out of Orlando with a win. Florida & Wake Forest are the headliners, but the Gophers' semifinal opponent (Wichita State) should pose some problems, as well.

Nov. 28: vs. Wichita State
Nov. 29: vs. Florida or Wake Forest

THE BIG TEN GRINDER
Gotta' Have These Home Games (go 3-0)
These are three teams the Gophers could be battling to get a spot in the 15-team Big Ten Tournament. Can't slip up here.

Feb. 1: Washington
Feb. 22: Penn State
Feb. 25: Northwestern

Beat Some Top-Half Teams at The Barn 3 (go 4-3)
All your wins can't come vs. teams you're expected to beat. Do some damage at home.

Dec. 4: Michigan State
Jan. 2: Purdue
Jan. 6: Ohio State
Jan. 16: Michigan
Jan. 25: Oregon
Feb. 8: Illinois
March 5: Wisconsin

Winnable Roadkill (go 3-3)
In my opinion these are the Gophers' most winnable true road games. If you're any good at all, you need to get half of 'em.

Jan. 10: @ Wisconsin
Jan. 13: @ Maryland
Jan. 21: @ Iowa
Feb. 4: @ Penn State
Feb. 15: @ USC
March 1: @ Nebraska

Signature Road Games (go 2-2)
Every resume has to have a couple "signature" wins. Here's where the Gophers must earn their big boy pants.

Dec. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 28: @ Michigan State
Feb. 18: @ UCLA
March 9: @ Rutgers

Comments are always welcome.
Click to expand...
You’re one of the reasons I have stayed active on the board.

Your Yeoman’s work is appreciated and never disappoints.

Huzzah Selection Sunday Huzzah 🙌
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Looking at the Gophers' 2024-25 schedule, I feel comfortable saying a 22-9 regular season record would earn the Gophers "lock" status into the NCAA Tournament, regardless what follows at the Big Ten Tournament.

Note that this season I broke it down more by home & road and non-conference & conference rather than trying to project exactly where each team will finish in the Big Ten standings. The 18-team conference makes that a mad science experiment!

I've broken the schedule down into 7 "buckets" (as Bleed likes to call 'em). This is one way to get to those 22 wins, but put in its simplest terms I'd just say go 10-1 in the non-conference & 12-8 in the Big Ten and there will be not a thing to worry about.

THE NON-CONFERENCE
Cupcake City (must go 7-0)
The Gophers are favored by double digits in Bart Torvik's preseason game-by-game projections.

Nov. 6: Oral Roberts
Nov. 9: Omaha
Nov. 19: Cleveland State
Nov. 25: Central Michigan
Dec. 1: Bethune-Cookman
Dec. 21: Fairleigh Dickinson
Dec. 29: Morgan State

Tricky Home Games (go 2-0)
Gophers will be favored, but be very careful here.

Nov. 13: North Texas
Nov. 16: Yale

ESPN Events Invitational (go 1-1)
Winning this 4-team bracketed tournament would pretty much assure the non-conference portion of the slate has been a success, but the Gophers must make sure they get out of Orlando with a win. Florida & Wake Forest are the headliners, but the Gophers' semifinal opponent (Wichita State) should pose some problems, as well.

Nov. 28: vs. Wichita State
Nov. 29: vs. Florida or Wake Forest

THE BIG TEN GRINDER
Gotta' Have These Home Games (go 3-0)
These are three teams the Gophers could be battling to get a spot in the 15-team Big Ten Tournament. Can't slip up here.

Feb. 1: Washington
Feb. 22: Penn State
Feb. 25: Northwestern

Beat Some Top-Half Teams at The Barn (go 4-3)
All your wins can't come vs. teams you're expected to beat. Do some damage at home.

Dec. 4: Michigan State
Jan. 2: Purdue
Jan. 6: Ohio State
Jan. 16: Michigan
Jan. 25: Oregon
Feb. 8: Illinois
March 5: Wisconsin

Winnable Roadkill (go 3-3)
In my opinion these are the Gophers' most winnable true road games. If you're any good at all, you need to get half of 'em.

Jan. 10: @ Wisconsin
Jan. 13: @ Maryland
Jan. 21: @ Iowa
Feb. 4: @ Penn State
Feb. 15: @ USC
March 1: @ Nebraska

Signature Road Games (go 2-2)
Every resume has to have a couple "signature" wins. Here's where the Gophers must earn their big boy pants.

Dec. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 28: @ Michigan State
Feb. 18: @ UCLA
March 9: @ Rutgers

Comments are always welcome.
Click to expand...
Great anaysis...and right on! I think you are right when you say we 'have to' or 'must' in your breakdown of our schedule. Unfortunately I don't think we can do that with this years team, which I am very much looking forward to watching and has be excited. I didn't know how many games we were playing (for sure) until your post, but I was thinking we may win 18-20 games (which would include possibly 1-3 in the Big Ten and/or NIT). Then I saw the schedule and thought, well, maybe 20-22 (including wins from any tournaments) might be achievable. 22 wins before the tournament(s) is a bridge too far. I hope I am wrong!
 











Think this is also the correct number. Although I wouldn't say they are a sure fire lock. We've seen 22 win teams from the P5 conferences get left out before. And the one common denominator between all those schools is a poor OOC SoS. Which we will have again, unfortunately. 22-9 with a first round B1G tournament exit, will certainly leave me nervous. We have to hope the B1G is better than it was last year, so we have more Q1 and Q2 opportunities since we'll only get at most one of those opportunities in the OOC. Unless one of those teams play way above their preseason expectation.
 



Indiana Gopher said:
Then I saw the schedule and thought, well, maybe 20-22 (including wins from any tournaments) might be achievable. 22 wins before the tournament(s) is a bridge too far. I hope I am wrong!
Click to expand...

I feel the same way. While I'm reasonably confident that this year's team can surpass last year's team, a 22-9 regular season is a tough nut to crack. The most successful regular season Gopher team this century was the 2017 team that finished the regular season at 23-8. In accomplishing that, they won 8 straight games near the end of the season before dropping the regular season finale to Wisconsin. However, they did lose 5 straight games before beginning that winning streak!
 

Feels like 17-14 is about the ceiling but maybe they can surprise.
 



howeda7 said:
A surprise? No. Is it good enough to continue this experiment? Also no.
Click to expand...
I'm having a lot of trouble with how I'm going to evaluate the team this year. It feels like just making the tournament would be a big step forward for the coach. But, if we make the tournament and don't get past the first weekend, it still feels like it would be a very inadequate four years.

That aside, big thanks to SS. I echo others who say this is their favorite thread of the year.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I'm having a lot of trouble with how I'm going to evaluate the team this year. It feels like just making the tournament would be a big step forward for the coach. But, if we make the tournament and don't get past the first weekend, it still feels like it would be a very inadequate four years.

That aside, big thanks to SS. I echo others who say this is their favorite thread of the year.
Click to expand...
Make the NCAA tournament or we get a new coach. Might not be a fair or realistic goal but he's made his bed.
 

This is my favorite thread each season and I love how it is updated with how we did along the way. Always well done SS. But unfortunately I don’t see we get close to 22 wins
 



HitMeAgainIAmStillMoving said:
Normally Selection has a disclaimer that says just that. But he lets us dream for a while.
Click to expand...
Good memory on my disclaimers. I forgot this time!

I’ll go on record now & predict 14-17, 5-15. Keep in mind, most seasons the Gophers finish worse than my preseason prediction. Certainly hope that’s not the case this season.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Looking at the Gophers' 2024-25 schedule, I feel comfortable saying a 22-9 regular season record would earn the Gophers "lock" status into the NCAA Tournament, regardless what follows at the Big Ten Tournament.

Note that this season I broke it down more by home & road and non-conference & conference rather than trying to project exactly where each team will finish in the Big Ten standings. The 18-team conference makes that a mad science experiment!

I've broken the schedule down into 7 "buckets" (as Bleed likes to call 'em). This is one way to get to those 22 wins, but put in its simplest terms I'd just say go 10-1 in the non-conference & 12-8 in the Big Ten and there will be not a thing to worry about.

THE NON-CONFERENCE
Cupcake City (must go 7-0)
The Gophers are favored by double digits in Bart Torvik's preseason game-by-game projections.

Nov. 6: Oral Roberts
Nov. 9: Omaha
Nov. 19: Cleveland State
Nov. 25: Central Michigan
Dec. 1: Bethune-Cookman
Dec. 21: Fairleigh Dickinson
Dec. 29: Morgan State

Tricky Home Games (go 2-0)
Gophers will be favored, but be very careful here.

Nov. 13: North Texas
Nov. 16: Yale

ESPN Events Invitational (go 1-1)
Winning this 4-team bracketed tournament would pretty much assure the non-conference portion of the slate has been a success, but the Gophers must make sure they get out of Orlando with a win. Florida & Wake Forest are the headliners, but the Gophers' semifinal opponent (Wichita State) should pose some problems, as well.

Nov. 28: vs. Wichita State
Nov. 29: vs. Florida or Wake Forest

THE BIG TEN GRINDER
Gotta' Have These Home Games (go 3-0)
These are three teams the Gophers could be battling to get a spot in the 15-team Big Ten Tournament. Can't slip up here.

Feb. 1: Washington
Feb. 22: Penn State
Feb. 25: Northwestern

Beat Top Half at The Barn (go 4-3)
All your wins can't come vs. teams you're expected to beat. Do some damage at home.

Dec. 4: Michigan State
Jan. 2: Purdue
Jan. 6: Ohio State
Jan. 16: Michigan
Jan. 25: Oregon
Feb. 8: Illinois
March 5: Wisconsin

Winnable Roadkill (go 3-3)
In my opinion these are the Gophers' most winnable true road games. If you're any good at all, you need to get half of 'em.

Jan. 10: @ Wisconsin
Jan. 13: @ Maryland
Jan. 21: @ Iowa
Feb. 4: @ Penn State
Feb. 15: @ USC
March 1: @ Nebraska

"Big Boy Pants" Road Games (go 2-2)
Every resume has to have a couple "signature" wins. Here's where the Gophers must earn their big boy pants.

Dec. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 28: @ Michigan State
Feb. 18: @ UCLA
March 9: @ Rutgers

Comments are always welcome.
Click to expand...
I love this. My optimistic view is such that I have MN in bubble at 21-10 season, 11-9 conf. play. Conf. Tourney will determine bid.
I have MN going 6-1 in "Beat top half in the Barn" games, but 2-4 in "Winnable Road Games", and 0-4 in "Big Boy Pants".
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I'm having a lot of trouble with how I'm going to evaluate the team this year. It feels like just making the tournament would be a big step forward for the coach. But, if we make the tournament and don't get past the first weekend, it still feels like it would be a very inadequate four years.

That aside, big thanks to SS. I echo others who say this is their favorite thread of the year.
Click to expand...
His job doesn't rest on the four year record. Years 1 & 2 have already been written off. He will be judged on trajectory. Stagnant probably means he's gone. But if this year shows continued progress, he stays.
 


Dakota2 said:
His job doesn't rest on the four year record. Years 1 & 2 have already been written off. He will be judged on trajectory. Stagnant probably means he's gone. But if this year shows continued progress, he stays.
Click to expand...

But, what defines progress? Making the NIT for a second straight year? That seems stagnant. I think that's why many believe it has to be NCAA or bust.
 

tjgopher said:
But, what defines progress? Making the NIT for a second straight year? That seems stagnant. I think that's why many believe it has to be NCAA or bust.
Click to expand...
What defines progress is competitiveness. That usually translates into more wins, sometimes not. The only people who have an exact number of wins or tournament level as the fire/stay point are posting here. That is not how Coyle is evaluating the program.
 

Dakota2 said:
Dakota2 said:
What defines progress is competitiveness.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

They were competitive last year and it resulted in an NIT berth. Does being competitive and going back to the NIT again result in excitement or progress? I'm not so sure.

Dakota2 said:
That is not how Coyle is evaluating the program.
Click to expand...

We'll see. I have been surprised how frontal Coyle has been about his expectations. He hasn't been shy about stating his desire for this team to make the NCAA Tourney. That isn't by accident, in my opinion.
 

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