Looking at the Gophers' 2024-25 schedule, I feel comfortable saying a 22-9 regular season record would earn the Gophers "lock" status into the NCAA Tournament, regardless what follows at the Big Ten Tournament.
Note that this season I broke it down more by home & road and non-conference & conference rather than trying to project exactly where each team will finish in the Big Ten standings. The 18-team conference makes that a mad science experiment!
I've broken the schedule down into 7 "buckets" (as Bleed likes to call 'em). This is one way to get to those 22 wins, but put in its simplest terms I'd just say go 10-1 in the non-conference & 12-8 in the Big Ten and there will be not a thing to worry about.
THE NON-CONFERENCE
Cupcake City (go 7-0; currently 1-0)
The Gophers are favored by double digits in Bart Torvik's preseason game-by-game projections.
Nov. 6: Oral Roberts (W +23)
Nov. 9: Omaha
Nov. 19: Cleveland State
Nov. 25: Central Michigan
Dec. 1: Bethune-Cookman
Dec. 21: Fairleigh Dickinson
Dec. 29: Morgan State
Tricky-Dicky (go 2-0)
Gophers will be favored, but be very careful here.
Nov. 13: North Texas
Nov. 16: Yale
Meat & Potatoes Bracket (go 1-1)
Winning the 4-team ESPN Events Invitational would pretty much assure the non-conference portion of the slate has been a success, but the Gophers must make sure they get out of Orlando with a win. Florida & Wake Forest are the headliners, but the Gophers' semifinal opponent (Wichita State) could pose some problems, as well.
Nov. 28: vs. Wichita State
Nov. 29: vs. Florida or Wake Forest
THE BIG TEN GRINDER
Take Care of Barn Business (go 3-0)
These are three teams the Gophers could be battling to get a spot in the 15-team Big Ten Tournament. Can't slip up here.
Feb. 1: Washington
Feb. 22: Penn State
Feb. 25: Northwestern
Top Half Home Cookin' (go 4-3)
All your wins can't come vs. teams you're expected to beat. Do some damage at home.
Dec. 4: Michigan State
Jan. 2: Purdue
Jan. 6: Ohio State
Jan. 16: Michigan
Jan. 25: Oregon
Feb. 8: Illinois
March 5: Wisconsin
Winnable Roadkill (go 3-3)
These are the Gophers' most winnable true road games. If you're any good at all, you need to get half of 'em.
Jan. 10: @ Wisconsin
Jan. 13: @ Maryland
Jan. 21: @ Iowa
Feb. 4: @ Penn State
Feb. 15: @ USC
March 1: @ Nebraska
"Big Boy Pants" Roadies (go 2-2)
Every resume has to have a couple "signature" wins. Here's where the Gophers must earn their big boy pants.
Dec. 9: @ Indiana
Jan. 28: @ Michigan State
Feb. 18: @ UCLA
March 9: @ Rutgers
Comments are always welcome.