You want a "magic number" for Gophers to hear name called on Selection Sunday? Go with 22

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SelectionSunday said:
Updated after the UCLA win, just for the h*ll of it. ...

THE NON-CONFERENCE
Cupcake City (go 7-0; finished 7-0)
The Gophers are favored by double digits in Bart Torvik's preseason game-by-game projections.

Bethune-Cookman (W)
Central Michigan (W)
Cleveland State (W)
Fairleigh Dickinson (W)
Morgan State (W)
Omaha (W)
Oral Roberts (W)

Tricky-Dicky (go 2-0; finished 1-1)
Gophers will be favored, but be very careful here.

North Texas (L)
Yale (W)

Meat & Potatoes Bracket (go 1-1; finished 0-2)
Winning the 4-team ESPN Events Invitational would pretty much assure the non-conference portion of the slate has been a success, but the Gophers must make sure they get out of Orlando with a win. Florida & Wake Forest are the headliners, but the Gophers' semifinal opponent (Wichita State) could pose some problems, as well.

vs. Wake Forest (L)
vs. Wichita State (L)

THE BIG TEN GRINDER
Take Care of Barn Business (go 3-0; currently 0-1)
These are three teams the Gophers could be battling to get a spot in the 15-team Big Ten Tournament. Can't slip up here.

Washington (L)
Feb. 22: Penn State
Feb. 25: Northwestern

Top Half Home Cookin' (go 4-3; currently 2-4)
All your wins can't come vs. teams you're expected to beat. Do some damage at home.

Illinois (L)
Michigan (W)
Michigan State (L)
Ohio State (L)
Oregon (W)
Purdue (L)
March 5: Wisconsin

Winnable Roadkill (go 3-3; currently 3-2)
These are the Gophers' most winnable true road games. If you're any good at all, you need to get half of 'em.

@ Iowa (W)
@ Maryland (L)
@ Penn State (W)
@ USC (W)
@ Wisconsin (L)
March 9: @ Rutgers

"Big Boy Pants" Roadies (go 2-2; currently 1-2)
Every resume has to have a couple "signature" wins. Here's where the Gophers must earn their big boy pants.

@ Indiana (L)
@ Michigan State (L)
@ UCLA (W)
March 1: @ Nebraska
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Hope is always a good thing
 




PoockItInfor6 said:
If they went 4-1 and got a BTT tourney win, they’d be on the cusp… 6 combined wins to me would make them a lock?
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I'm still focused on securing a spot in Big Ten tourney, but I think what you & Roland say sounds about right. 21-13 I'd put it at 95% chance they make it.

As weak as the bubble is, I think perhaps even 21-14 (allowing for 1 more regular season loss to someone other than Wisconsin, preferably Rutgers) gets them in 50-50 range.

Again, not saying this is realistic but if. ...

Penn State/Northwestern/@ Nebraska/Wisconsin = W
@ Rutgers = L

+2 wins in Big Ten Tournament, caveat being at least one must be over an opponent headed to the NCAA tourney (win vs. the field).
 


The Gophers have a chance to have an extremely intriguing resume by season's end. If Penn State can find a way to get some wins down the stretch (not against the Gophers, of course) and creep back into a top 75 NET, that will add a Q1 win back. Oregon is very close as well. Need them to finish strong so they can get into the top 30 again. Then, say they pick up at least one of the NE/WI games. That gets them to 7 Q1 wins. That would put them in fairly elite company.

Let's say they protect home court in this home stand here, upset Wisconsin and then take down Rutgers on the road. And then they drop the game to Nebraska. (in other words, the 95th percentile outcome)

That would give them this resume heading into the B10 Tourney:

18-13 (10-10)
Q1 7-9
Q2 3-3
Q3 1-2
Q4 7-0

That absolute puts them squarely on the bubble. You cannot have a letdown returning home here. PSU and NW will be fighting for their postseason lives. Show up and prove you're the better team and we'll go from there.
 


blevanhoval said:
The Gophers have a chance to have an extremely intriguing resume by season's end. If Penn State can find a way to get some wins down the stretch (not against the Gophers, of course) and creep back into a top 75 NET, that will add a Q1 win back. Oregon is very close as well. Need them to finish strong so they can get into the top 30 again. Then, say they pick up at least one of the NE/WI games. That gets them to 7 Q1 wins. That would put them in fairly elite company.

Let's say they protect home court in this home stand here, upset Wisconsin and then take down Rutgers on the road. And then they drop the game to Nebraska. (in other words, the 95th percentile outcome)

That would give them this resume heading into the B10 Tourney:

18-13 (10-10)
Q1 7-9
Q2 3-3
Q3 1-2
Q4 7-0

That absolute puts them squarely on the bubble. You cannot have a letdown returning home here. PSU and NW will be fighting for their postseason lives. Show up and prove you're the better team and we'll go from there.
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Screenshot_20250219_101020.jpg
Was 0% yesterday.
 






Different era & much different circumstances—nevertheless the ‘89 team was 6-9 without a road win going into the last three conference games…
 




I turned off that UCLA game last night thinking we didn't have a chance, yet we come out with the win. I also gave up on this team a month ago thinking we didn't have a chance to make it to the dance, but here we are. If we make it to the bubble conversation, having a solid finish to the season has to carry some weight with the committee.
 

blevanhoval said:
The Gophers have a chance to have an extremely intriguing resume by season's end. If Penn State can find a way to get some wins down the stretch (not against the Gophers, of course) and creep back into a top 75 NET, that will add a Q1 win back. Oregon is very close as well. Need them to finish strong so they can get into the top 30 again. Then, say they pick up at least one of the NE/WI games. That gets them to 7 Q1 wins. That would put them in fairly elite company.

Let's say they protect home court in this home stand here, upset Wisconsin and then take down Rutgers on the road. And then they drop the game to Nebraska. (in other words, the 95th percentile outcome)

That would give them this resume heading into the B10 Tourney:

18-13 (10-10)
Q1 7-9
Q2 3-3
Q3 1-2
Q4 7-0

That absolute puts them squarely on the bubble. You cannot have a letdown returning home here. PSU and NW will be fighting for their postseason lives. Show up and prove you're the better team and we'll go from there.
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I would say the likelihood of both PSU and Oregon ending up as Q1 wins are very unlikely. Especially given how PSU is playing down the stretch. I'd also say at 18-13, we won't be particularly close to being in, and would probably have to win the B1GT to get in. Our OOC SOS is a huge red flag on any potential resume we might have.
 

Zeppelin Gopher said:
OK now I'm getting excited.

Haha just the fact we are sitting here talking about a strong finish putting us on the bubble is pretty remarkable.
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When have I had those feelings before? They seem familiar...
 

Something to chew on regarding that (Gopher) non-conference schedule, if by some chance they end near or on the bubble. Generally speaking, if a bubble team has a non-conference schedule ranking of #275 or worse (bottom 25%), that's a red flag for the committee and one they more often than not will punish (by excluding). Teams with awful non-conference schedules must definitively separate themselves from the bubble (for example, Maryland) to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

Current Big Ten Non-Conference SOS Rankings
9 Purdue
35 Ohio State
50 Illinois
62 Oregon
89 Wisconsin
92 UCLA
129 Michigan
152 Rutgers
153 Indiana
154 Michigan State
178 Nebraska
220 Iowa
237 USC
263 Washington
306 Northwestern
327 Maryland
330 Gophers
339 Penn State
 


SelectionSunday said:
Something to chew on regarding that (Gopher) non-conference schedule, if by some chance they end near or on the bubble. Generally speaking, if a bubble team has a non-conference schedule ranking of #275 or worse (bottom 25%), that's a red flag for the committee and one they more often than not will punish (by excluding). Teams with awful non-conference schedules must definitively separate themselves from the bubble (for example, Maryland) to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

Current Big Ten Non-Conference SOS Rankings
9 Purdue
35 Ohio State
50 Illinois
62 Oregon
89 Wisconsin
92 UCLA
129 Michigan
152 Rutgers
153 Indiana
154 Michigan State
178 Nebraska
220 Iowa
237 USC
263 Washington
306 Northwestern
327 Maryland
330 Gophers
339 Penn State
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as a general question, I always see the "last 10" listed. How much does the committee consider end of season vs early season in rankings as well as how much do the injuries play a role? For example, Mike Mitchell missed the UNT, Wichita, and WF games and obviously we're in a very different place with winning even one of them.
 

upnorthkid said:
as a general question, I always see the "last 10" listed. How much does the committee consider end of season vs early season in rankings as well as how much do the injuries play a role? For example, Mike Mitchell missed the UNT, Wichita, and WF games and obviously we're in a very different place with winning even one of them.
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They don't.
 

upnorthkid said:
as a general question, I always see the "last 10" listed. How much does the committee consider end of season vs early season in rankings as well as how much do the injuries play a role? For example, Mike Mitchell missed the UNT, Wichita, and WF games and obviously we're in a very different place with winning even one of them.
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Last 10 is no longer considered.

They look at injuries, I think moreso for seeding than selection.

But in the end, it's your (and opponents) resume, injuries or not. Sometimes they break your way, sometimes they don't.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Last 10 is no longer considered.

They look at injuries, I think moreso for seeding than selection.

But in the end, it's your (and opponents) resume, injuries or not. Sometimes they break your way, sometimes they don't.
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makes sense. Just always see the "last 10" listed on every bracket selection site but have never seen it as criteria so was curious if it came into play at all.

the injuries part i've seen them say they track and "take into consideration", but makes sense what you're mentioning
 

Another factor the selection committee is looking at this year is "Wins Above Bubble". On Torvik, MN is currently -1.8, which is ranked in the 70s. That site also assigns WAB values to each remaining game. Sweeping PSU and NW only adds a combined 0.5 to the WAB. Interestingly, the away Nebraska game and home Wisconsin game are worth almost exactly the same at around 0.65. MN could get to +0.4 by going 5-0. Lose only one of those games and they'll be 0 or negative, and out of consideration unless they win at least two at the BTT.

For reference, Indiana is currently -0.1 WAB, which is 56th and they're "next 4 out" on most lists with a way more difficult noncon.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Something to chew on regarding that (Gopher) non-conference schedule, if by some chance they end near or on the bubble. Generally speaking, if a bubble team has a non-conference schedule ranking of #275 or worse (bottom 25%), that's a red flag for the committee and one they more often than not will punish (by excluding). Teams with awful non-conference schedules must definitively separate themselves from the bubble (for example, Maryland) to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

Current Big Ten Non-Conference SOS Rankings
9 Purdue
35 Ohio State
50 Illinois
62 Oregon
89 Wisconsin
92 UCLA
129 Michigan
152 Rutgers
153 Indiana
154 Michigan State
178 Nebraska
220 Iowa
237 USC
263 Washington
306 Northwestern
327 Maryland
330 Gophers
339 Penn State
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I don't expect the team to be selected to the NCAA tournament but I think it's worth mentioning some of our OVERALL strength of schedule rankings:

SOS Ranking
Pomeroy
37​
Torvik
35​
Haslametrics
36​
Sports Reference
35​
Massey
47​

We certainly haven't played an easy conference schedule to this point (not every team had to play Wisconsin and Michigan State twice) and the conference schedule is 20 games vs. 11 for nonconference.
 

upnorthkid said:
as a general question, I always see the "last 10" listed. How much does the committee consider end of season vs early season in rankings as well as how much do the injuries play a role? For example, Mike Mitchell missed the UNT, Wichita, and WF games and obviously we're in a very different place with winning even one of them.
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My guess is the committee won't factor in Mitchell's absence at all. We are only 10-9 with him. And our best OOC win (Yale) we got without him. The data isn't skewed too much one way or another for it to really be a factor. Obviously would have liked to have had him for those games, but I don't think it moves the needle much.
 

Gophers7633 said:
My guess is the committee won't factor in Mitchell's absence at all. We are only 10-9 with him. And our best OOC win (Yale) we got without him. The data isn't skewed too much one way or another for it to really be a factor. Obviously would have liked to have had him for those games, but I don't think it moves the needle much.
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I mean 10-9 vs the portion of the schedule ranked much closer to 47th overall versus 4-3 vs the portion of the schedule ranked nearer to 264th are different, especially as I'm only talking in the theoretical world where they're playing themselves onto the bubble/under consideration. If they go 3-2 and 1-1 in the BTT, they're out. If they win 6 more games this year, then it gets more interesting and that's where I'd be curious if they'd look at all at those bad losses in particular
 

Just as a point of reference, here are "snapshot" resumes of the Gophers and Vanderbilt, a team I have squarely on the bubble. Please note this snapshot does not include all the things the committee factors in. I also use Vandy because its non-conference schedule rank makes it a good comparison to the Gophers.

Vanderbilt
NET: 42
KenPom: 42
Wins Above Bubble: 35
Non-Conference SOS: 328
Overall SOS: 37
True Road Record: 2-5
Record vs. Quad 1: 2-7
Record vs. Quads 1-2 Combined: 6-8
Record vs. Quads 1-3 Combined: 9-8
Bad Losses (Quads 3-4): none

Gophers
NET: 89
KenPom: 85
Wins Above Bubble: 66
Non-Conference SOS: 330
Overall SOS: 36
True Road Record: 4-4
Record vs. Quad 1: 4-8
Record vs. Quads 1-2 Combined: 7-10
Record vs. Quads 1-3 Combined: 7-12
Bad Losses (Quads 3-4): 2
 

It would be a major accomplishment (considering where we were through six BT games) to make the NIT. Really didn't think that post-season basketball in any form would still be on the table.
 

upnorthkid said:
I mean 10-9 vs the portion of the schedule ranked much closer to 47th overall versus 4-3 vs the portion of the schedule ranked nearer to 264th are different, especially as I'm only talking in the theoretical world where they're playing themselves onto the bubble/under consideration. If they go 3-2 and 1-1 in the BTT, they're out. If they win 6 more games this year, then it gets more interesting and that's where I'd be curious if they'd look at all at those bad losses in particular
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Yes, we are better with him, for sure. Just not demonstrably enough better. In the games he missed we ranked 130th in T-Rank. Since he came back we are 78th. Also, our two best OOC wins were without him.
 

I think some on here are a bit out of touch.

I dont think we are even close to the bubble, and add to that, it's a very weak bubble.

Our advanced metrics are pretty bad, atrocious non conference, some good wins yes, but not that holy cow win. Vandy has those with Tenn and Kentucky. Also of note, the SEC is a wagon, there are no bad losses. Vandy last 6 are 4 ranked, Arkansas then UGA. All in or bubble teams. Add in our bad losses and it's a major climb.

On the injury thing, Mitchell is a good player, he's not the guy you go ohh well he was out let's discount that. If it was DG sure.

Has this last 9 game stretch been good, absolutely! Credit to the team and coach for that. But also call a spade a spade, coach messed up with the NC schedule and we are just a meh team with some good, but more bad outcomes. We need to win out plus probably 2 in the BTT to have a shot. Now a month ago I'd have said ahh nope more likely to lose out than win out. Now I mean uphill but we've shown a little to make one think it's plausible.
 

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