With realignment and NIL, what are reasonable expectations going forward?

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RememberMurray

RememberMurray

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This season has been disappointing. Last chance to win the West is gone.

That said, we are the only team to beat #17 Iowa at Kinnick and we still have a chance to keep the Axe, too. We can still go bowling, and finish with a winning record.

We've gotten a look at some upcoming Gopher football schedules.

With the changes that are coming to the B1G and to college football, what are your expectations for this program going forward?
 

If the program consistently wins more than they lose in conference, that’s a sign you can make a run.
5-4 is the barometer of success for me now and moving forward.

You want more 5-4 or betters than 4-5 or worse
 

I can’t believe there won’t be some sort of breakout of divisions in the Big 10 next year. Makes no sense.
 


Some guy said:
If the program consistently wins more than they lose in conference, that’s a sign you can make a run.
5-4 is the barometer of success for me now and moving forward.

You want more 5-4 or betters than 4-5 or worse
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This is basically where I am at. If I add some specificity to where I am at, 3-6 or worse is awful, 4-5 is disappointing individually and a major problem if it becomes a habit, 5-4 is a solid season individually but disappointing if that becomes a ceiling, 6-3 or better is a good season.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
This is basically where I am at. If I add some specificity to where I am at, 3-6 or worse is awful, 4-5 is disappointing individually and a major problem if it becomes a habit, 5-4 is a solid season individually but disappointing if that becomes a ceiling, 6-3 or better is a good season.
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I'm already at 6-3 for the Conference Games as the baseline. Will I be let down? Probably. But it is my passion for supporting UMN Sports, all UMN sports, as being another extension of the excellence of the UMN Experience.

So the trophy game wins are a must, as well.
 

It seems to me the transfer portal and NIL has really hurt Fleck recently. Wonder how much it has to do with how Fleck runs his program? We lost a lot of good defensive players the last couple years. I mean we lost 2 very good defensive players to Kansas. Things do not look good for this program right now in my opinion. Depth problems, QB problems, OC problem, QB Coach problem.
 

I’m also on the 5-4 base goal for conference play.

That’s top 1/2 every year.
 

We will consistently finish behind first tier teams Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Washington and USC/Iowa. We’ll probably settle into the second tier between 7th and 12th place with USC/Iowa, Wisconsin, UCLA, Illinois and Nebraska. We may have years when we drop to the upper part of the third tier between 13th and 18th place with Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland and Michigan State. Realistically, I don’t see us finishing higher than 4th or contending for the conference championship game at any point in the foreseeable future.
 




In the past 50 years, the Gophers have played in 21 bowl games (with a record of 10-11). Two of the bowl games were played on New Year's Day (the Citrus Bowl on January 1, 2015, and the Outback Bowl on January 1, 2020).

If the U.S. Congress doesn't legislate the sport of football out of existence, I am confident the next 50 years will be slightly improved over the past 50 years.
 

dinkything said:
In the past 50 years, the Gophers have played in 21 bowl games (with a record of 10-11). Two of the bowl games were played on New Year's Day (the Citrus Bowl on January 1, 2015, and the Outback Bowl on January 1, 2020).

If the U.S. Congress doesn't legislate the sport of football out of existence, I am confident the next 50 years will be slightly improved over the past 50 years.
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It’s crazy that the past 10 years are clearly the best of the last 50 years.


Of the two main coaches responsible for that 10 years
35% of the board hates Kill
35% of the board hates Fleck
20% of the board doesn’t hate either.
10% of the board hates both.
 

With NIL and the transfer portal set up the way it is, there will be the Haves (Bama, Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, etc), the. Vital 70% (middle of the pack P5 teams) and the have nots (, MAC, AAC, etc)

We probably would have to get an at large bid as a 10-2 type team to make the playoffs. That may happen in a perfect season maybe 1 or 2 times in my lifetime. Winning the Big 10 and getting an a playoffs bid will never happen.

I think we need to make sure we don't fall down to the Vanderbilt level, but if we can beat a top 25 team once a year and win 6 to 8 games consistently, I will be happy.

My suggestion to all Gopher fans, love your team, contribute financially what you can, show up and cheer.

BUT, have a tier 1 team that you like as your side piece....that way, you have a dog in the National Championship race that you can also follow.

Having been on the field last week for the Georgia Tennessee game, I realized finally that we are who we are. There is a level of FBS football that is a knoch above what we will ever be.
 
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^^ Yep

College football is the opposite of fair and parity based. It's a cabal, and they like it that way.


Gophers have no chance to win the Big Ten or compete for an at-large spot to the CFP, with the way things are setup.

We're back to how things were in the 2000's and early 2010's, in that sense. There was never a realistic chance to win the Big Ten and/or be selected for the BCS championship game.
 



MplsGopher said:
^^ Yep

College football is the opposite of fair and parity based. It's a cabal, and they like it that way.


Gophers have no chance to win the Big Ten or compete for an at-large spot to the CFP, with the way things are setup.

We're back to how things were in the 2000's and early 2010's, in that sense. There was never a realistic chance to win the Big Ten and/or be selected for the BCS championship game.
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MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois won the B1G during that period. The B1G west teams have a shot at winning the conference now due to the title game, but the talent gap has become so wide that it’s actually become more difficult despite just needing one win.
 

Since we are not in the top 12 programs vying for a national championships or with the ability to throw around NIL money, we must beat our competition with player development and portal influx. I expect that our coach drops the whining about NIL and the potential "good" guys leaving for it. Everyone outside of that top 12 is in the same situation. There is not enough NIL money every good player so I expect to recruit those who do not fit into that top 12.
 

MplsGopher said:
^^ Yep

College football is the opposite of fair and parity based. It's a cabal, and they like it that way.


Gophers have no chance to win the Big Ten or compete for an at-large spot to the CFP, with the way things are setup.

We're back to how things were in the 2000's and early 2010's, in that sense. There was never a realistic chance to win the Big Ten and/or be selected for the BCS championship game.
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Disagree.
10-2 big ten team likely makes the playoff from here moving forward in a 12 team. Harder to go 12-0 by virtue of the end of the divisions. But the end of the divisions doesn’t in my opinion the ability to win 9 or 10 games very much.



Gopherchase said:
We should flirt with being in the top 25 consistently.
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define consistently
Define flirt with

10th in 2019
Unranked 2020
28th in AP in 2021
30th in AP in 2022
Unranked in 2023

When you say flirt with you must mean in. Otherwise you wouldn’t be so upset.

To me, others receiving votes in flirting with.
 

btowngopher said:
MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois won the B1G during that period. The B1G west teams have a shot at winning the conference now due to the title game, but the talent gap has become so wide that it’s actually become more difficult despite just needing one win.
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It is unbelievable the revisionist history regarding the big ten. It was so much easier to win the big ten pre-Nebraska expansion.

11 team conference, you play 8.
You could miss 1 or 2 of the top 4
Go 1-1 against the other teams in the top 4 and share a title without ever having to beat a top 2 team in the conference. For a long while you could tie.
1993 big ten champion Wisconsin’s best win was against 4th/5th place Indiana/Michigan (these two didn’t play each other). They missed Iowa and lost to 4-7 Minnesota. Big ten champs! Not a division, the conference Rose Bowl baby.

1996 northwestern. Goes to rose bowl. Co-champions. Missed the other co champ. Lost to 3rd place team. Also missed 5-3 Michigan state. Rose bowl!

The easiest time to win the big ten was an 8 game conference schedule from when penn state was added to when Nebraska joined. No conference championship, you missed playing 20% of the conference each year, could claim co championships. You could lose to the team you tied with and still hang the banner.
The two teams closest to a big ten title in my lifetime were not 2019 or 2014 or 2016 because of the setup. The two closest teams were 1999 and 2003. Flip one result (Wisconsin in OT in 1999 and Michigan in 2003) and the gophers are big ten champs and in rose bowl either year.

Pre penn state you were playing 9/9 other big ten teams and couldn’t miss someone due to schedule.

Post about 2000 the expansion to 12 games meant you could go 2-6 in conference and make a bowl.



Post Nebraska everyone had to beat the second best team in the conference to win the division (if second best team was in your division) or to win the conference championship game. Sometimes you had to beat the second best team twice if you crossed over with them.

There is one exception to this. It is is when Wisconsin got into the championship with a third in the division finish because both penn state and Ohio state were on probation the same year.
 
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MplsGopher said:
^^ Yep

College football is the opposite of fair and parity based. It's a cabal, and they like it that way.


Gophers have no chance to win the Big Ten or compete for an at-large spot to the CFP, with the way things are setup.

We're back to how things were in the 2000's and early 2010's, in that sense. There was never a realistic chance to win the Big Ten and/or be selected for the BCS championship game.
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There was a legit chance to win the Big 10 in 2019 and we shat the bed twice against our biggest rivals. As Herb Brooks famously told his team before the gold medal game, that if they lost, “you’re going to take it to your fucking graves.” I can’t believe anyone associated with that wonderful 2019 team won’t regret the opportunity lost for the rest of their lives.
 

If you didn’t go to the top bowl for the Big Ten that season, you did not win the conference. I don’t give a S what you “claim”. Irrelevant

And the point was only to compare similar eras without divisions. Not claim that pre-Nebraska was more difficult to win. No one said anything of the such. But by all means waste your time doing a bunch of irrelevant analysis if it suits you! :)
 

MplsGopher said:
If you didn’t go to the top bowl for the Big Ten that season, you did not win the conference. I don’t give a S what you “claim”. Irrelevant
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Do the two teams I specifically mentioned going to the rose bowl count?

MplsGopher said:
And the point was only to compare similar eras without divisions. Not claim that pre-Nebraska was more difficult to win. No one said anything of the such. But by all means waste your time doing a bunch of irrelevant analysis if it suits you! :)
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From you this means a lot
 

“The other co-champ” did not go to the Rose Bowl.


Now time to actually say something that matters:

it will be harder to win the conf going forward than it was in West Div days. Duh
 

Some guy said:
. . .
The two closest teams were 1999 and 2003. Flip one result (Wisconsin in OT in 1999 and Michigan in 2003) and the gophers are big ten champs and in rose bowl either year.
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Interesting post. In your alternative 1999 and 2003, there would have been 4-way ties for champ, correct? Would Gophers have won Rose Bowl tiebreakers? Not sure about that.
 

Also … it’s obviously complete and total bunk to look at any past years where Ohio State wasn’t dominate. That’s not relevant at all, anymore.

Sure, Illinois won the Big Ten outright in 2001. Good for them. John Cooper got fired from OSU the year before for finishing 4th in the conf, and it was Tressel’s first year and they finished 3rd.
 

BigTenGuy said:
Interesting post. In your alternative 1999 and 2003, there would have been 4-way ties for champ, correct? Would Gophers have won Rose Bowl tiebreakers? Not sure about that.
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If memory serves, the tiebreaker was who had not been to the Rose Bowl for the longest, and I think we would have won that.
 

BigTenGuy said:
Interesting post. In your alternative 1999 and 2003, there would have been 4-way ties for champ, correct? Would Gophers have won Rose Bowl tiebreakers? Not sure about that.
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In 1999 it was still who had been there furthest back if no clear tiebreaker. Gophers would’ve been 1-0 against the 4 way tie.

2003 it was still had been there furthest back of no clear tiebreaker

Minnesota would’ve been 1-0 in the 4 way tie.


Minnesota would’ve went both years
BigTenGuy said:
Interesting post. In your alternative 1999 and 2003, there would have been 4-way ties for champ, correct? Would Gophers have won Rose Bowl tiebreakers? Not sure about that.
Click to expand...
 

alt 99 - Mich and Mich St would have been 10-2 overall and higher ranked while Minn and Wisc 9-3 lower ranked. Those didn’t matter for tiebreakers? I have no idea just seems silly they wouldn’t.

Again, and exactly the fundamental heart of why we’re talking about this: OSU was 6-6 :sneaky: that year! The beginning of the end for John Cooper.


alt 2003 - Minn goes to the Rose in 99 (the Jan 1 2000 game), then they would’ve been to the Rose more recently than OSU and Mich. One of those two would’ve gone. Didn’t play OSU or Purdue that year.

So, could’ve been an either or thing, but not both.


It’s fun to play what if, but of course that and $4 gets you a coffee at Caribou. And it proves nothing
 
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Wasn't Cooper the coach of tOSU that year? John Cooper, not Turner.
 

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