With realignment and NIL, what are reasonable expectations going forward?

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Some guy said:
It is unbelievable the revisionist history regarding the big ten. It was so much easier to win the big ten pre-Nebraska expansion.

11 team conference, you play 8.
You could miss 1 or 2 of the top 4
Go 1-1 against the other teams in the top 4 and share a title without ever having to beat a top 2 team in the conference. For a long while you could tie.
1993 big ten champion Wisconsin’s best win was against 4th/5th place Indiana/Michigan (these two didn’t play each other). They missed Iowa and lost to 4-7 Minnesota. Big ten champs! Not a division, the conference Rose Bowl baby.

1996 northwestern. Goes to rose bowl. Co-champions. Missed the other co champ. Lost to 3rd place team. Also missed 5-3 Michigan state. Rose bowl!

The easiest time to win the big ten was an 8 game conference schedule from when penn state was added to when Nebraska joined. No conference championship, you missed playing 20% of the conference each year, could claim co championships. You could lose to the team you tied with and still hang the banner.
The two teams closest to a big ten title in my lifetime were not 2019 or 2014 or 2016 because of the setup. The two closest teams were 1999 and 2003. Flip one result (Wisconsin in OT in 1999 and Michigan in 2003) and the gophers are big ten champs and in rose bowl either year.

Pre penn state you were playing 9/9 other big ten teams and couldn’t miss someone due to schedule.

Post about 2000 the expansion to 12 games meant you could go 2-6 in conference and make a bowl.



Post Nebraska everyone had to beat the second best team in the conference to win the division (if second best team was in your division) or to win the conference championship game. Sometimes you had to beat the second best team twice if you crossed over with them.

There is one exception to this. It is is when Wisconsin got into the championship with a third in the division finish because both penn state and Ohio state were on probation the same year.
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I’ll say it again, you are dumb.
 


Thanks @walrus , fixed!

Turner was the coach at Illinois during 2001, for the irrelevant example of when they won the Big Ten outright.

Of course, they didn't even get to go to the Rose Bowl for their achievement that year, because that was a year that the Rose was hosting the #1 vs #2 BCS matchup, since they originally didn't make a separate natty game when the BCS first started.

Instead they got shipped down to the Sugar Bowl, where the SEC champ did get to have its home bowl, and lost.
 

We'll play 45 conference games in five years. I don't think in terms of disappointments since the new conference and NIL make the future so different from the past. I think UM will win about 22 of those 45 games.
 

Here is my litmus test for a good season:
  • Consistently beat the bottom 1/3 of the conference (this will change from time-to-time) but for the past couple of years it's been the likes of IU, MSU, Rutgers, Purdue, NU and UN).
  • Compete (ie go 50/50) with the middle of the conference (Iowa, Wisconsin, Maryland, UCLA?, etc.).
  • Pull of a field-storming upset (vs a Top 10 team) every 2-3 years.
I'm not sure that this looks any different in the new alignment of the conference and it is what the Gophers have been doing since Fleck arrived.

If, and not until, the Big Ten breaks down into divisions, a Big Ten Championship is just not feasible. Like the rest of you, I really bemoan the fact that the Gophers weren't able to win a BT West championship outright. I imagine that we are one of the only Power 5 teams to have not won a conference title or played in a division championship since 1967 (55 f***ing years) - IU is on that list so is Vanderbilt and Kansas - pretty sad company).

Like an earlier poster stated, I would like to see the Gophers end each season with their names in the Top-25 or the "also receiving votes" list. I could live with one "rebuilding" season every 4-6 years (or for a year or two following a coaching change), but that would require a Top-15 team every 4-6 years to balance it out.

As a 40+ year college football fan, I am really pessimistic about the future of the 45 "Power 5" teams that are not "helmet schools" while the other 20 will just continue to increase their level of dominance. Having shared this pessimism, I just hope the Gophers can stay relevant in the sport.
 


Some guy said:
It’s crazy that the past 10 years are clearly the best of the last 50 years.


Of the two main coaches responsible for that 10 years
35% of the board hates Kill
35% of the board hates Fleck
20% of the board doesn’t hate either.
10% of the board hates both.
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There are some people that just enjoy being unhappy.
 


I don’t want to sound like “debbie downer” but this (assuming we win) will be our last bowl till forever - unless we leave the B1G. I just don’t see 6 wins in the near future.
 

Jack jones said:
I don’t want to sound like “debbie downer” but this (assuming we win) will be our last bowl till forever - unless we leave the B1G. I just don’t see 6 wins in the near future.
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I love the new Big Ten. How fun to play all these teams. We’ll be getting a ton of money coming into the program every year. Pretty easy to sell the schedule we will be playing going forward to recruits. We should all be buzzing about a great new future. Fleck has chosen to be a downer on the whole NIL thing I can only hope to light a fire under Coyle. We can’t compete with this coaching staff playing Tressel ball, so let’s hope PJ upgrades his staff and changes his best. Pretty easy choices to be made if he can pull his head out. There is another thread I think talking about the pay of the assistant coaches to me that’s super simple. Our assistant coaches aren’t ready by and large to be at this level so we don’t have to pay them the going rate of P5 coaches, in the aggregate.
 



The OP asked for reasonable expectations.
Playing with no divisions and a different scheduling model, my "reasonable" expectations are:
1. finish with at least a .500 record
2. Play in a bowl game.
3. Win at least one rivalry game
4. be competitive against the top half of the conference.
5. Avoid the "bad" losses to the bottom teams in the conference.
 

Texan Gopher said:
With NIL and the transfer portal set up the way it is, there will be the Haves (Bama, Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, etc), the. Vital 70% (middle of the pack P5 teams) and the have nots (, MAC, AAC, etc)

We probably would have to get an at large bid as a 10-2 type team to make the playoffs. That may happen in a perfect season maybe 1 or 2 times in my lifetime. Winning the Big 10 and getting an a playoffs bid will never happen.

I think we need to make sure we don't fall down to the Vanderbilt level, but if we can beat a top 25 team once a year and win 6 to 8 games consistently, I will be happy.

My suggestion to all Gopher fans, love your team, contribute financially what you can, show up and cheer.

BUT, have a tier 1 team that you like as your side piece....that way, you have a dog in the National Championship race that you can also follow.

Having been on the field last week for the Georgia Tennessee game, I realized finally that we are who we are. There is a level of FBS football that is a knoch above what we will ever be.
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I agree with you. My tier 1 team is Ohio State because I'm loyal to the Big Ten vs. other conferences. It's fun to root for them because they win most of the time. It helps balance out my Gopher fandom. As you said, the difference in level of athlete is clear.

I have a question for you all: Is there a chance the Gophers are actually a better team moving forward vs. the other 130 or so D-1 teams, but our record doesn't show it? The Big Ten just became an even more dominant with the addition of the best west coast teams, further separating us from every conference except the SEC. That should mean access to even more money and the resulting better coaches and players. I agree with others that our record will be a game or so worse because our conference will be so much stronger even if we are a slightly better team. A rising tide lifts all boats...just some boats more than others.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Big Ten reduces the number of Big Ten games just a bit over time to give their teams more breathers and to slightly inflate their records for the CFP similar to how the SEC does things now. For the majority of Big Ten teams, those non-conference games will be very important to buoy records for bowl eligibility, etc. Having a lot of teams in bowl games is good for the conference because a lot of college football fans will watch any game that is on. The Big Ten will want their teams in those games. More bowls equals more money! It also means a month more practice time which again makes our teams better on average.
 

Go Gophers Rah said:
Here is my litmus test for a good season:
  • Consistently beat the bottom 1/3 of the conference (this will change from time-to-time) but for the past couple of years it's been the likes of IU, MSU, Rutgers, Purdue, NU and UN).
  • Compete (ie go 50/50) with the middle of the conference (Iowa, Wisconsin, Maryland, UCLA?, etc.).
  • Pull of a field-storming upset (vs a Top 10 team) every 2-3 years.
I'm not sure that this looks any different in the new alignment of the conference and it is what the Gophers have been doing since Fleck arrived.

If, and not until, the Big Ten breaks down into divisions, a Big Ten Championship is just not feasible. Like the rest of you, I really bemoan the fact that the Gophers weren't able to win a BT West championship outright. I imagine that we are one of the only Power 5 teams to have not won a conference title or played in a division championship since 1967 (55 f***ing years) - IU is on that list so is Vanderbilt and Kansas - pretty sad company).

Like an earlier poster stated, I would like to see the Gophers end each season with their names in the Top-25 or the "also receiving votes" list. I could live with one "rebuilding" season every 4-6 years (or for a year or two following a coaching change), but that would require a Top-15 team every 4-6 years to balance it out.

As a 40+ year college football fan, I am really pessimistic about the future of the 45 "Power 5" teams that are not "helmet schools" while the other 20 will just continue to increase their level of dominance. Having shared this pessimism, I just hope the Gophers can stay relevant in the sport.
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That's realism, not pessimism.
 




If you change that to 6-6 normal … then that’s basically what Fleck did here, but lifted up 2 wins by playing in the weak West and having a weak non-conf. 8-4 normal (then a low bowl win to get 9) and a ceiling of 10-2 the one year.

It is a massive mistake for us to schedule any decent P5 in non-conf going forward.
 

i think the Gophers should compete similarly to what the last 5 years have been, modest but not unreasonable. The stupid thing is picking a conference champion when in any given year you will only play half the teams. These super conference’s do not work well for football with the limited number of games, my opinion of course, but how do you keep interest in the game? Whoever draws a favorable schedule wins, not a good way to determine a “champion”.
 

It’s an excuse to sell hotel rooms and book restaurants in Indy, and put a game that “matters” on TV for ratings.

That’s all it actually is at this point. And you don’t do something that takes money out of peoples’ pockets. That’s the opposite of how the world works.
 

an after-thought: with the new schedule, "reasonable" could change from year to year, depending on what the conference schedule looks like.

in 2024, the Gophers play North Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, USC, UCLA, Penn State and Wisconsin. even the "easier" games are no gimmes: Maryland, Illinois, and Rutgers.

2025 is less daunting on paper. toughest non-conf game is Cal, a .500 Pac-12 team. in conf, toughest games are OSU, Oregon and Iowa - then MSU, Neb, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin and Northwestern. that looks more favorable, but of course with the portal, teams can change quickly.

so a reasonable expectation for 2024 may be different than a reasonable expectation for 2025.
 

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