I think you are right. Media reports are that the WI collective signed Lucas to a $500K NIL deal. If the collective paid him, say, 40% up front (or more), and the day after he got the money he tried to put his name in the transfer portal, then WI is taking the bullet for a lot of teams. How would Gopherholers feel if Koi pocketed say $500,000 for 2025 NIL and then immediately put in transfer portal papers? I suspect we'd understand the WI situation better.
I don't know what is in the standard NIL contract but I believe that the contract must contain a provision that forbids the player from entering into another NIL deal while the WI NIL deal is in place. What is called an "exclusivity" provision. Certainly would not violate any NCAA rule on NIL; not a pay for play thing; just insures basic honesty on the player's part. So, Lucas's choices are probably play for the Badgers or sit out the season, in either case living with the WI NIL contract. But if Lucas wants to sign a "competing" NIL contract, I think he is toast. Even if he transfers but doesn't sign a new NIL deal, I think there is a good argument that he has repudiated and/or destroyed the value of the WI NIL contract. Whether the University can intercede and abet the legal position of the WI NIL collective is somewhat open, I suspect.
Bottom Line: The kid should repay the money he took from the Wisconsin collective or the University of Miami collective should pay it for him. Just like Miami is paying a $600,000 contract termination fee to the U of Minn because it snatched away our DC during the term of a contract. It looks like this kid wants to keep the WI collective money yet immediately sign a new, competing NIL deal with Miami. If this is the case, it is a piggish and fundamentally dishonest move. I'll bet the WI collective thinks it has a good case. And the fact that Lucas's lawyer is simply fulminating on social media but hasn't brought a lawsuit (likely to be venued in Wisconsin) speaks volumes.
Anyway, on historical principle, the Badgers are dinks ... but I think in this case the Badgers are doing the whole B1G a huge favor by digging in their heels and insisting that there must be some minimum level of honesty and fair dealing by players in NIL deals.