Win 2 games in the BTT, our at large hopes are actually really good

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jjgopher

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Yeah that's right. If we take care of the 2 games we should take care of, (home against Iowa, PSU in the 1st round), the 2nd round game against probably Mich St. or Purdue, might actually be a play-in game for us. After my latest bracketology, and I'll assume a Gophers win tomorrow against Iowa, and barring any upsets in the smaller tourneys (UNI already in championship game, Butler plays their conference tourney games at home) there are 8 at large slots open for the following bubble teams:

Georgia Tech 7-9, 18-11, slumping terribly
Dayton 8-8, 19-11, slumping terribly
Rhode Island 9-7, 21-8, lost many of their last games
St. Louis 10-6, 20-10, redic high RPI
South Florida 9-9, 19-11, a couple impressive wins, many bad losses
Seton Hall 8-9, 17-11, no real impressive wins
Illinois 10-7, 18-12, high RPI, slumping down the stretch
GOPHERS 9-9, 18-12
Memphis 12-3, 23-8, no real impressive wins
UAB 11-4, 23-6, might be in best shape out of the list
William and Mary 12-6, 20-9, bad conference record for a terrible conference
Wichita State 12-6, 25-8, no impressive wins, but might get an Auto Bid
San Diego State 10-5, 21-8, also probably in good shape
Arizona State 12-6, 22-9, not many quality wins
Washington 10-7, 20-9, also not many quality wins other than Texas A&M and Cal
Florida 9-6, 20-10, slumping terribly
Mississippi State 9-7, 21-10, not a good resume at all
Ole Miss 9-7, 21-9, beat Kansas State and UTEP, and no one else
St. Mary's 11-3, 23-5, not a single quality win

You could argue we have the best 3 wins out of this whole list. Root for St. Mary's to lose tomorrow night, root for Wichita State to lose in the MVC Championship tomorrow afternoon, root for Illinois to lose to Wisconsin, and root for early exits from the rest of these teams in their conference tourneys. If some of these things happen, I guarantee you 2 wins in the BTT will get us in the big dance.
 

Not me. i saying this now. We have to win the big ten tourney to get in. i am serious.
 

you can say whatever you want, but i'm telling you like it is
 

jjgopher said:
you can say whatever you want, but i'm telling you like it is
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I disagree. there is no way we are in the NCAA with 2 win in the BTT, even if we win tomorrow vs Iowa.
 

Im gonna agree with the OP...
Not that the Gophs deserve to get in, but my god the field is bad this year. There are about 50-55 teams deserving, not 65 this year. Lots of teams with lots of blemishes are going to make it...
 


and what's your reasoning, other than just saying that? you tell me 8 teams on that list that are more deserving than us and why
 

gophersfan said:
I disagree. there is no way we are in the NCAA with 2 win in the BTT, even if we win tomorrow vs Iowa.
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Also, I didn't say we were automatically in if we win our next 3, we also need there to be the 8 spots open that I mentioned. If Butler, UNI, Old Dominion, Utah State, lose, they can shrink that number of 8. However, if there are 8 spots open, then yes, our odds are very very good to make it
 

jjgopher said:
Also, I didn't say we were automatically in if we win our next 3, we also need there to be the 8 spots open that I mentioned. If Butler, UNI, Old Dominion, Utah State, lose, they can shrink that number of 8. However, if there are 8 spots open, then yes, our odds are very very good to make it
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So let me get this right... you're going out on a limb and saying that if there are openings, then they need to be filled? Amazing.

At this point in time, getting to the tourney would require winning the BTT or multiple mini-miracles to occur.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
So let me get this right... you're going out on a limb and saying that if there are openings, then they need to be filled? Amazing.

At this point in time, getting to the tourney would require winning the BTT or multiple mini-miracles to occur.
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you're an idiot. I mean obviously you study and look at this stuff so much more than me, so yeah you must be right and i must be wrong.
 



Michigan St. has locked up the #3 seed I believe so that will be the round 2 opponent.

Beating Iowa, PSU, and MSU will get them to 20 wins but the RPI will not go up enough.
 

jjgopher said:
you're an idiot. I mean obviously you study and look at this stuff so much more than me, so yeah you must be right and i must be wrong.
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I don't look much at all at potential bubble teams until later this coming week, actually. It does not take a lot of studying to understand the position the Gophers are in, my friend. You make some great arguments, though... "you're an idiot"... hard to compete with that.

If the Gophers win their next three games, then lose but make it into the field of 65, I will give you 2-1 odds - let me know the amount in a private message. 2-1 is generous since you believe the chances are 'very good'.
 

OK, so what UConn should be in, because their RPI is higher than ours? They are 7-11 in conference. RPI isn't everything. In fact, when they changed the format of the RPI 3-4 years ago, it has become less and less of a tool. Should Florida be in? Unless they somehow win at Kentucky tomorrow, they are in the same boat as us. Seton Hall? South Florida? Ole Miss? Mississippi State? Someone please name me more than 4 of those teams that deserve to be in over us. I never once said we DESERVE to be in big dance with the way we played this year, but none of those other teams deserve it either.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
I don't look much at all at potential bubble teams until later this coming week, actually. It does not take a lot of studying to understand the position the Gophers are in, my friend. You make some great arguments, though... "you're an idiot"... hard to compete with that.

If the Gophers win their next three games, then lose but make it into the field of 65, I will give you 2-1 odds - let me know the amount in a private message. 2-1 is generous since you believe the chances are 'very good'.
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IF there are 8 spots open, which is a decent possiblity, and the Gophers win their next 3 games, I will give you 2-1 odds
 



Gopher Warrior said:
I don't look much at all at potential bubble teams until later this coming week, actually. It does not take a lot of studying to understand the position the Gophers are in, my friend. You make some great arguments, though... "you're an idiot"... hard to compete with that.

If the Gophers win their next three games, then lose but make it into the field of 65, I will give you 2-1 odds - let me know the amount in a private message. 2-1 is generous since you believe the chances are 'very good'.
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You can pick and choose what you want to read from my OP all you want, and then make your argument from that, and no it doesnt take alot of studying to know the Gophers' position, however, it does take a little bit of studying to look at all the other bubble teams and how their body of work compares to ours. And yeah, "you're an idiot" was my main argument.
 

jjgopher said:
IF there are 8 spots open, which is a decent possiblity, and the Gophers win their next 3 games, I will give you 2-1 odds
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OK.. so you're essentially saying nothing. Unless you define what "8 spots open" means...
Are you by Sandy's Tavern? Bring your girl and her friends and I can help you out over some rings and beers.
 

Why should I tell you what 8 spots open means? You apparently know everything there is to know about the Gophers bubble chances, so you should know exactly the 8 spots I'm talking about
 

jjgopher said:
you can say whatever you want, but i'm telling you like it is
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JJ, ignore the haters. You're actually very correct. Win 2 games in the BTT and we're in the tourney. We'll get in through the backdoor. It won't be pretty, but we'll make it...only cause the bubble is so weak.
 

So what do people think our chances of making the dance are if we win 3 games in the Big 10 Tourney and lose the championship game. All I have heard so far from many is that we need to win the BTT, what how about if we beat Iowa, then win on Thurs, Fri, and Sat but lose on Sunday? Would that do it? That's 2 more really good wins...
 

exactly, San Diego State is IN the tournament as of today, not safely but in. Last year, with arguably a worse resume, they were OUT of the tournament, probably not even one of the last 4 in. The bubble crop is very very weak, and add to the that the possiblity of not very many spots being taken away from the smaller conferences, and a team like Minnesota, still has a shot
 

RunGopherRun said:
So what do people think our chances of making the dance are if we win 3 games in the Big 10 Tourney and lose the championship game. All I have heard so far from many is that we need to win the BTT, what how about if we beat Iowa, then win on Thurs, Fri, and Sat but lose on Sunday? Would that do it? That's 2 more really good wins...
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If we win our next 4 games, Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Purdue, that would put us as a virtual lock.
 

Several of the bubble teams ahead of us lost today. Several more are bound to lose also. If the Gophers can manage to win our next three games, we have a shot. We will be sweating it out on selection sunday but we WILL have a shot.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
You make some great arguments, though... "you're an idiot"... hard to compete with that.
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I don't mean to butt in here, but I think "you're an idiot" was not really an argument as much as a statement of opinion. The arguments were contained in the original post.
 

The theory may or may not be correct, but the real problem for me is: 1)must beat PSU and then 2) must beat MSU to even test it out. I don't think that part of the equation happens, so everything else becomes academic.
 

If we reach the BTT semi's I give us a 25-50% chance at an at-large. If we reach the BTT finals, I have us a 75% chance. Both assuming an Iowa win of course.
 

I'll try to put a number on it as well. Let's go with 15% if the Gophers win 2, 65% if they win 3.
 


I don't think 4 wins in the BTT will be enough. It would be nice if we were in the Big East so we could run the table with 5 wins in 5 days. 5 more wins are probably enough to get us in.
 

I think jjgopher makes an interesting case that the Gophers could be in with 3 wins provided the bubble doesn't shrink in the next week. I was listening to a sports radio station on my way home tonight and Lunardi currently has Arizona State in the tournament. They have a terrible resume with only 2 top 50 wins (one is San Diego State, can't recall who the host said was the other one). The Gophers have at least 3 wins (Butler, Ohio State, Wisconsin) that are better than anything ASU has. If the Gophers won their next 3 (including a quality win over MSU), they have a good shot.

The Gophers would likely be in Lunardi's bracket right now if they simply defeated Michigan. After watching that embarrassing lack of effort, I certainly won't get my hopes up for the Gophers to win 3 in a row.
 

FWIW, the B101 folks commented that if we win three we should in.

Crazy year.
 

Bracketography.com has us as the 1st team out FWIW

from their site

Minnesota (45%)

Another quasi-surprise for me. But take a look at the projected scalps on Minnesota’s resume (7, 2, 5, 9) N-Butler, Ohio State, Wisconsin, @Illinois and it’s not a bad quartet. Crushing defeat in Ann Arbor, though. Gophers definitely need to win two more games, and maybe three. Remaining game: Iowa
 

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