Which QB do the Vikes draft?

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short ornery norwegian said:
if the Vikes feel they must get a QB of the Future this year, then they will pay whatever they have to pay to get one.

If they don't get a QBOTF this year, then they really have to land one next year, and the 2025 QB class is, to put it mildly, not as intriguing as this year.

from what I've read so far, the best 2 QB's will be Deion's kid and Drew Allar.

so the $64,000 Question - what will be the Vike's draft situation next year? will they be picking in the top 10? How many other teams will be looking for QB's?

Sure, I suppose the Vikes could tank - intentionally or otherwise - and wind up with a true top-10 pick next year, but I really don't see that happening unless Darnold is truly awful at QB or everything just goes wrong.
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  • If we wait until next year, I'd like to get Quinn Ewers (QB from Texas).
  • This year, the way the draft is laying out, I'd pick Pratt (QB from Tulane). You can probably get him in the 3rd round. Use our top picks for other needs. Give Pratt a year, and then he'll start for the Vikes.
 

Full Speed Ahead said:
  • If we wait until next year, I'd like to get Quinn Ewers (QB from Texas).
  • This year, the way the draft is laying out, I'd pick Pratt (QB from Tulane). You can probably get him in the 3rd round. Use our top picks for other needs. Give Pratt a year, and then he'll start for the Vikes.
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I've been on the Pratt train from the beginning! May not be "elite" at anything but the guy does a lot of things really, really well.

Heard Chris Simms on The Lombardi Line this morning. Couple of interesting tidbits.

- Not a fan, AT ALL, or Drake Maye (hello, Merrill Hoge?), just doesn't see it. Not really sold on McCarthy from what I gathered, but didn't talk a lot about it.

- He thinks Nabers is better than Harrison, and not by just a little bit. Hell yeah (since I have some decent action on Nabers as the first WR to be taken)

- He does NOT see the Giants moving up to take a QB but Lombardi thinks they will. Along with the rumors at the combine of the Giants Front Office not liking Jones at all, the rumors are now that they LOVE Drake Maye. The Giants moving up for Maye would definitely shake things up.

- Adam Peters, the new Washington GM, was the guy in SF who was absolutely in love with drafting Trey Lance; leading to speculation that they'll be taking Jayden Daniels. Of the top guys, Daniels probably also fits what Kingsbury likes to do on offense best as well so maybe almost a lock Washington takes Daniels at #2?
 


From a new article in The Athletic, by Austin MOCK 🤣, using advanced metrics -

theathletic.com

Evaluating top NFL Draft QBs with one advanced stat to love and one that will scare teams

Analytics are just one piece of the draft evaluation puzzle, but some stats tell us a lot about whether QBs are poised to thrive in NFL.
theathletic.com theathletic.com


The 2024 NFL Draft is just two weeks away and, no surprise, there is drama surrounding both how many quarterbacks will be taken in the first round and the order in which they’ll be taken.

Early in the draft process, USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye appeared to be far and away the top prospects at the position, with Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at No. 3 — but a tier or two down. But then came Jayden Daniels with a Heisman-winning season at LSU, which shot him up draft boards and put him in the discussion to be the QB2 of this class.

Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. are the final two quarterbacks with a least a puncher’s chance of being drafted in the first round. But could there really be six quarterbacks selected in the first round? Is this class worthy of that?

No one has that answer because no one has perfected the ability to evaluate college quarterbacks. It’s some cocktail of film review, on-field production, analytics, interviews, all of it. Our goal here is to provide one aspect of that evaluation, to look at each passer through an analytical lens and point out something to like about him and something that could scare teams away.

Again, analytics are just one piece of the evaluation puzzle, but one you can hopefully use to help determine whether you believe each of these QBs should be selected in the first round and in what order.

NFL Draft 2024 QB Advanced stats
Usage% EPA/Dropback Pressure to sack % Air Yards/Att Att% Middle of field Att% 20+ yards

Per these advanced stats and the way they were computed, the QBs and their corresponding values are ( this was in a graph, which I can’t copy/paste -

Williams 68.9
Daniels 68.8
Pennix 63.4
Nix 62.8
Maye 62.4
McCarthy 48.8

Note: All data comes from TruMedia, and stats are from each QB’s final season and only against FBS opponents, unless otherwise noted.
 


No none likes stats, let alone “advanced” stats.

Unless they say what you want them to say.
 


Gopher_In_NYC said:
From a new article in The Athletic, by Austin MOCK 🤣, using advanced metrics -

theathletic.com

Evaluating top NFL Draft QBs with one advanced stat to love and one that will scare teams

Analytics are just one piece of the draft evaluation puzzle, but some stats tell us a lot about whether QBs are poised to thrive in NFL.
theathletic.com theathletic.com


The 2024 NFL Draft is just two weeks away and, no surprise, there is drama surrounding both how many quarterbacks will be taken in the first round and the order in which they’ll be taken.

Early in the draft process, USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye appeared to be far and away the top prospects at the position, with Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at No. 3 — but a tier or two down. But then came Jayden Daniels with a Heisman-winning season at LSU, which shot him up draft boards and put him in the discussion to be the QB2 of this class.

Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. are the final two quarterbacks with a least a puncher’s chance of being drafted in the first round. But could there really be six quarterbacks selected in the first round? Is this class worthy of that?

No one has that answer because no one has perfected the ability to evaluate college quarterbacks. It’s some cocktail of film review, on-field production, analytics, interviews, all of it. Our goal here is to provide one aspect of that evaluation, to look at each passer through an analytical lens and point out something to like about him and something that could scare teams away.

Again, analytics are just one piece of the evaluation puzzle, but one you can hopefully use to help determine whether you believe each of these QBs should be selected in the first round and in what order.

NFL Draft 2024 QB Advanced stats
Usage% EPA/Dropback Pressure to sack % Air Yards/Att Att% Middle of field Att% 20+ yards

Per these advanced stats and the way they were computed, the QBs and their corresponding values are ( this was in a graph, which I can’t copy/paste -

Williams 68.9
Daniels 68.8
Pennix 63.4
Nix 62.8
Maye 62.4
McCarthy 48.8

Note: All data comes from TruMedia, and stats are from each QB’s final season and only against FBS opponents, unless otherwise noted.
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My personal ranking would be:

1. Daniels
2. Williams
3. Penix Jr.
4. McCarthy
5. Maye
6. Nix

I think Penix Jr will be a gift to DEN or LV and Maye has the biggest bust potential.
 

Slim Tubby said:
My personal ranking would be:

1. Daniels
2. Williams
3. Penix Jr.
4. McCarthy
5. Maye
6. Nix

I think Penix Jr will be a gift to DEN or LV and Maye has the biggest bust potential.
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I hope we stay at 11 and take Penix or McCarthy. If neither makes it there, it wasn't meant to be. Don't trade up.
 



howeda7 said:
I hope we stay at 11 and take Penix or McCarthy. If neither makes it there, it wasn't meant to be. Don't trade up.
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This. If there was a realistic chance to move up to #2 to grab Daniels, I'm all for paying the hefty price. I just can't see why WAS would want to pass on him.
 

Slim Tubby said:
My personal ranking would be:

1. Daniels
2. Williams
3. Penix Jr.
4. McCarthy
5. Maye
6. Nix

I think Penix Jr will be a gift to DEN or LV and Maye has the biggest bust potential.
Click to expand...

Sounds about right.

Pennix, for all the shade regarding his injuries, was injury free the last two seasons in WA.
 





Gopher_In_NYC said:
Sounds about right.

Pennix, for all the shade regarding his injuries, was injury free the last two seasons in WA.
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I've said this before, but you simply cannot gauge how he will do in the NFL when using his 2 years at UW when it comes to his health. When you have the OL in front of you awarded as the best OL in college football, I sure hope you stay upright and healthy. In 2023, he was sacked only 11 times in 15 games. He rushed 35 times (average of about 2x a game) for a grand total of 8 yards. His pocket presence is sub-par and even though he clocked a 4.5 40 time at his pro day, he makes no effort to escape the pocket or run when given the chance. He makes Kirk Cousins look like Lamar Jackson. The Vikes gave up 47 sacks last year. I have reasonably low belief if you stick Penix back there he will stay healthy.
 

Were Pennix’s injuries the results of sacks he took in the pocket?
 

forever a gopher said:
I've said this before, but you simply cannot gauge how he will do in the NFL when using his 2 years at UW when it comes to his health. When you have the OL in front of you awarded as the best OL in college football, I sure hope you stay upright and healthy. In 2023, he was sacked only 11 times in 15 games. He rushed 35 times (average of about 2x a game) for a grand total of 8 yards. His pocket presence is sub-par and even though he clocked a 4.5 40 time at his pro day, he makes no effort to escape the pocket or run when given the chance. He makes Kirk Cousins look like Lamar Jackson. The Vikes gave up 47 sacks last year. I have reasonably low belief if you stick Penix back there he will stay healthy.
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You realize the converse applies as well; that assuming he will get hurt is folly and that argument isn’t a redoubt for your point either.

Furthermore, I never stated that his being injury free the last two years in college (fact), proves he will/won’t be (supposition) in the NFL😃.
 

forever a gopher said:
I've said this before, but you simply cannot gauge how he will do in the NFL when using his 2 years at UW when it comes to his health. When you have the OL in front of you awarded as the best OL in college football, I sure hope you stay upright and healthy. In 2023, he was sacked only 11 times in 15 games. He rushed 35 times (average of about 2x a game) for a grand total of 8 yards. His pocket presence is sub-par and even though he clocked a 4.5 40 time at his pro day, he makes no effort to escape the pocket or run when given the chance. He makes Kirk Cousins look like Lamar Jackson. The Vikes gave up 47 sacks last year. I have reasonably low belief if you stick Penix back there he will stay healthy.
Click to expand...

My concerns about Penix don't have that much to do with injury history and potential future risk there; my concerns lay more with what sounds like a litany of issues with his throwing mechanics and that he didn't play great against good competition; the PAC-12 defenses were ass.

I don't see it. I could be wrong, but from everything I've heard, I don't see it. Besides, it also doesn't exactly sound like his experience and skill set jive well with the KOC offense.
 

MplsGopher said:
Were Pennix’s injuries the results of sacks he took in the pocket?
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Absolutely no idea. I do know a guy with a sorted injury history (playing in only 21 games at Indiana over 4 years, with never more than 7 games in one season) does not instill me with a ton of confidence he'll hold up over 17 games in the NFL. Based on that history alone, I'm not touching him until the second round as a "flyer" more than pushing all the chips in on him and anointing him as your franchise QB.

Many people kicked and screamed at how bad Kirk was in the pocket and how he contributed to the high sack #'s. You don't have to be a runner to be successful in today's NFL, but you do have to have decent mobility. Penix's 40 time is the equivalent of vapor ware that may well help his draft stock. But if you watched any of his games you'll realize that has little bearing on how he plays the game.

He has a big arm, and that wows a lot of GMs. So that may get him drafted in the first round. But his lack of mobility and injury history have me passing on him.
 

forever a gopher said:
Absolutely no idea. I do know a guy with a sorted injury history (playing in only 21 games at Indiana over 4 years, with never more than 7 games in one season) does not instill me with a ton of confidence he'll hold up over 17 games in the NFL. Based on that history alone, I'm not touching him until the second round as a "flyer" more than pushing all the chips in on him and anointing him as your franchise QB.

Many people kicked and screamed at how bad Kirk was in the pocket and how he contributed to the high sack #'s. You don't have to be a runner to be successful in today's NFL, but you do have to have decent mobility. Penix's 40 time is the equivalent of vapor ware that may well help his draft stock. But if you watched any of his games you'll realize that has little bearing on how he plays the game.

He has a big arm, and that wows a lot of GMs. So that may get him drafted in the first round. But his lack of mobility and injury history have me passing on him.
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Penix impressed me. But you're absolutely right. I've wanted a more mobile QB that can make plays when the pocket (inevitably) collapses. That aint Penix
 

working under the assumption that there are no "perfect" prospects --

if you set out to look for flaws in a player, you will find them. the problem is that each player will have different flaws. so in evaluating them as draft prospects, the question comes down to this: are the flaws fixable - or can they be minimized due to scheme, mechanics, etc?

and that is where things get interesting, because each team probably has different views of those flaws and whether they are fixable. The Vikings may look at one QB and say, we can fix him. (now if he was just named Steve Austin....) but they may look at a different QB and say, we don't think we can fix him.
 


forever a gopher said:
Absolutely no idea. I do know a guy with a sorted injury history (playing in only 21 games at Indiana over 4 years, with never more than 7 games in one season) does not instill me with a ton of confidence he'll hold up over 17 games in the NFL. Based on that history alone, I'm not touching him until the second round as a "flyer" more than pushing all the chips in on him and anointing him as your franchise QB.

Many people kicked and screamed at how bad Kirk was in the pocket and how he contributed to the high sack #'s. You don't have to be a runner to be successful in today's NFL, but you do have to have decent mobility. Penix's 40 time is the equivalent of vapor ware that may well help his draft stock. But if you watched any of his games you'll realize that has little bearing on how he plays the game.

He has a big arm, and that wows a lot of GMs. So that may get him drafted in the first round. But his lack of mobility and injury history have me passing on him.
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Nothing anyone can say can or should take away the worry about his injury history. Not trying to do that.

But just wonder if he got those injuries by trying to extend the play with his legs or even on a designed run at Indiana, trying to do too much? And so not doing that at Washington is what led to him no longer getting injuries and being more wary of scrambling?
 

short ornery norwegian said:
working under the assumption that there are no "perfect" prospects --

if you set out to look for flaws in a player, you will find them. the problem is that each player will have different flaws. so in evaluating them as draft prospects, the question comes down to this: are the flaws fixable - or can they be minimized due to scheme, mechanics, etc?

and that is where things get interesting, because each team probably has different views of those flaws and whether they are fixable. The Vikings may look at one QB and say, we can fix him. (now if he was just named Steve Austin....) but they may look at a different QB and say, we don't think we can fix him.
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Can KOC fix Darnold? Let’s find out!

Nothing would please me more at this point than getting to deny the QB thirsty Vikings draft rubes their shot at part four of the Daunte, Ponder, Teddy saga. :)
 

short ornery norwegian said:
working under the assumption that there are no "perfect" prospects --

if you set out to look for flaws in a player, you will find them. the problem is that each player will have different flaws. so in evaluating them as draft prospects, the question comes down to this: are the flaws fixable - or can they be minimized due to scheme, mechanics, etc?

and that is where things get interesting, because each team probably has different views of those flaws and whether they are fixable. The Vikings may look at one QB and say, we can fix him. (now if he was just named Steve Austin....) but they may look at a different QB and say, we don't think we can fix him.
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This is some hard-hitting analysis.
 

Gophers1992 said:
This is some hard-hitting analysis.
Click to expand...

my point is - we keep hearing/reading about how "Penix can't do this" or "Nix can't do that" or "McCarthy can't do that."

it seems from my vantage point that a lot of the conversation is over their flaws - and the flaws are being presented as a reason or reasons why Penix or Nix or McCarthy isn't worth a high 1st-round draft pick.

OK - let's admit they have flaws. my point is that NFL clubs are aware of the flaws, but they are also - presumably - thinking about how those flaws could be addressed. So an NFL team will take that into account when deciding whether they believe that one of those QBs is worth a 1st-round pick.

there is a big difference between "Penix can't do this, and it's not fixable"......and "Penix can't do that, but we can fix it." and that might be the difference between choosing him in the 1st round or not.

just because a QB has flaws, that will not prevent them from being drafted.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
my point is - we keep hearing/reading about how "Penix can't do this" or "Nix can't do that" or "McCarthy can't do that."

it seems from my vantage point that a lot of the conversation is over their flaws - and the flaws are being presented as a reason or reasons why Penix or Nix or McCarthy isn't worth a high 1st-round draft pick.

OK - let's admit they have flaws. my point is that NFL clubs are aware of the flaws, but they are also - presumably - thinking about how those flaws could be addressed. So an NFL team will take that into account when deciding whether they believe that one of those QBs is worth a 1st-round pick.

there is a big difference between "Penix can't do this, and it's not fixable"......and "Penix can't do that, but we can fix it." and that might be the difference between choosing him in the 1st round or not.

just because a QB has flaws, that will not prevent them from being drafted.
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I hear you, just having some fun with you
 


short ornery norwegian said:
but they are also - presumably - thinking about how those flaws could be addressed.
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Their “thinking” is nothing more than fear based terror of missing out on a QB, resulting in a terrible record of misses in the first round.
 

Hey gamblers -

Wondering are there prop bets for which players each team selects. I’m not on any platforms, I’m okay with the 🐎, but suck with other mammals.
 

FWIW -

Miami GM said in a presser that they’re definitely going to sign Tua to a long-term deal and will not be selecting a QB in the draft - so one less QB suitor.
 

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