Which QB do the Vikes draft in 2024?

[JimmyJamesMD]

Souhan nails it in his column

Star Tribune

Your source for Minnesota news today. Read articles, view photos or watch videos about news in Minneapolis, St. Paul, Duluth, St. Cloud, Rochester, and beyond.

m.startribune.com

These truths we hold to be self-evident because they've been rammed down our throats for months:

• The Chicago Bears will take Caleb Williams with the first pick in the NFL draft Thursday night.

• Jayden Daniels is the most talented quarterback in the draft.

• The Vikings are enamored of North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye.

• Trading to acquire Maye might be difficult or ridiculously expensive.

• J.J. McCarthy is the fourth-highest-rated quarterback in the draft and could go as high as the fourth pick.

• Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix are intriguing talents who could go anywhere between the fifth and 35th picks.

We hold these truths to be self-evident because a dozen NFL sources and a dozen plugged-in reporters have created perceptions that affect the marketplace.

We have a few days before one of the most consequential drafts in Vikings history to stop investing in opinions created by an industry that constantly misjudges quarterback prospects.

The sources of all of this information are the same people who regularly take the wrong guy.

If you can, forget everything you've heard about this quarterback class in the past three months and travel back to Jan. 8, 2024.

At that moment, if you watched a lot of college football and were preparing to enjoy the national championship game between Washington and Michigan, your quarterback rankings would have looked much different.

Until that final game began, Penix looked like the second or third best quarterback in the land, and McCarthy looked like an intriguing game manager.

Then they played that last game and perceptions changed.

Michigan's excellent defense hit Penix early and often, damaging his ribs. Michigan's power running game shredded Washington's defense, producing 303 yards and four touchdowns.

Michigan won 34-13, and McCarthy was on his way to rising to the top of the draft class and Penix was on his way down the same ladder.

It's easy to remember McCarthy as the superior quarterback that day.

What really happened?

McCarthy completed 10 of 18 passes for 140 yards and no touchdowns. He put up the kinds of numbers that get Gophers quarterbacks benched.

Penix, under intense pressure all night, played despite his injuries and completed 27 of 51 passes for 255 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions.

If you played that game again and switched quarterbacks, the guess here is that McCarthy's reputation and ribs would have taken a beating and Penix would have led Michigan to an even bigger victory.

McCarthy might develop into a quality NFL quarterback. Penix has already played like one.

Penix makes quick decisions, has a quick release, throws well on the move, is a fast runner but prefers to buy time to make big plays downfield, throws with accuracy and anticipation, and excelled in a pro-style passing offense.

By those measures, Oregon's Nix should also be considered a superior prospect to McCarthy. Nix's statistics were even better than Penix's.

Penix attempted 555 passes last season. Nix attempted 470. McCarthy attempted 332 for a team that only occasionally needed him to pass well to win.

Talking about player evaluation the other day, Timberwolves President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly, who has built two NBA Western Conference powerhouses, said, "I just guess."

He was being modest and glib. He was also admitting that every decision requires projection and risk.

History tells us that of the top six quarterback prospects, two will fall somewhere between good and excellent, two will bounce around the NFL and two will utterly fail.

If Williams, Daniels and Maye go in the first three picks to the teams that currently hold those picks, the Vikings will be left to decide whether to trade up for McCarthy, or to "settle" for Penix, Nix or a lower-rated quarterback.

Because we will all be second-guessing the Vikings' upcoming decision for years if not decades, it is only fair to first-guess it.

My first guess: The Vikings would be better off taking the spectacular college passers than the reliable game manager. They should bet on Penix, or Nix, rather than McCarthy.

I was all about penix after the semi finals. Also saw maye vs gophers and not impressed.

That's the extent of my scouting. You're welcome

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I was all about penix after the semi finals. Also saw maye vs gophers and not impressed.

That's the extent of my scouting. You're welcome

Thank you for your diagnosis.

I only posted it because it confirms my opinion and he’s so beloved, I couldn’t resist.

 

[MplsGopher]

McCarthy is the next Zac Wilson. Maye is the next Mac Jones.

You’re welcome

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Souhan nails it in his column

Star Tribune

Your source for Minnesota news today. Read articles, view photos or watch videos about news in Minneapolis, St. Paul, Duluth, St. Cloud, Rochester, and beyond.

m.startribune.com

These truths we hold to be self-evident because they've been rammed down our throats for months:

• The Chicago Bears will take Caleb Williams with the first pick in the NFL draft Thursday night.

• Jayden Daniels is the most talented quarterback in the draft.

• The Vikings are enamored of North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye.

• Trading to acquire Maye might be difficult or ridiculously expensive.

• J.J. McCarthy is the fourth-highest-rated quarterback in the draft and could go as high as the fourth pick.

• Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix are intriguing talents who could go anywhere between the fifth and 35th picks.

We hold these truths to be self-evident because a dozen NFL sources and a dozen plugged-in reporters have created perceptions that affect the marketplace.

We have a few days before one of the most consequential drafts in Vikings history to stop investing in opinions created by an industry that constantly misjudges quarterback prospects.

The sources of all of this information are the same people who regularly take the wrong guy.

If you can, forget everything you've heard about this quarterback class in the past three months and travel back to Jan. 8, 2024.

At that moment, if you watched a lot of college football and were preparing to enjoy the national championship game between Washington and Michigan, your quarterback rankings would have looked much different.

Until that final game began, Penix looked like the second or third best quarterback in the land, and McCarthy looked like an intriguing game manager.

Then they played that last game and perceptions changed.

Michigan's excellent defense hit Penix early and often, damaging his ribs. Michigan's power running game shredded Washington's defense, producing 303 yards and four touchdowns.

Michigan won 34-13, and McCarthy was on his way to rising to the top of the draft class and Penix was on his way down the same ladder.

It's easy to remember McCarthy as the superior quarterback that day.

What really happened?

McCarthy completed 10 of 18 passes for 140 yards and no touchdowns. He put up the kinds of numbers that get Gophers quarterbacks benched.

Penix, under intense pressure all night, played despite his injuries and completed 27 of 51 passes for 255 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions.

If you played that game again and switched quarterbacks, the guess here is that McCarthy's reputation and ribs would have taken a beating and Penix would have led Michigan to an even bigger victory.

McCarthy might develop into a quality NFL quarterback. Penix has already played like one.

Penix makes quick decisions, has a quick release, throws well on the move, is a fast runner but prefers to buy time to make big plays downfield, throws with accuracy and anticipation, and excelled in a pro-style passing offense.

By those measures, Oregon's Nix should also be considered a superior prospect to McCarthy. Nix's statistics were even better than Penix's.

Penix attempted 555 passes last season. Nix attempted 470. McCarthy attempted 332 for a team that only occasionally needed him to pass well to win.

Talking about player evaluation the other day, Timberwolves President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly, who has built two NBA Western Conference powerhouses, said, "I just guess."

He was being modest and glib. He was also admitting that every decision requires projection and risk.

History tells us that of the top six quarterback prospects, two will fall somewhere between good and excellent, two will bounce around the NFL and two will utterly fail.

If Williams, Daniels and Maye go in the first three picks to the teams that currently hold those picks, the Vikings will be left to decide whether to trade up for McCarthy, or to "settle" for Penix, Nix or a lower-rated quarterback.

Because we will all be second-guessing the Vikings' upcoming decision for years if not decades, it is only fair to first-guess it.

My first guess: The Vikings would be better off taking the spectacular college passers than the reliable game manager. They should bet on Penix, or Nix, rather than McCarthy.

Souhan is a f'ng moron and doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. Nobody knows who the Vikings "love" and who's moving up draft boards and down draft boards. And Souhan is regurgitating the same tired drivel about defending Penix that most of the MSM feels compelled to do in order to protect Penix.

The perception of Penix is sliding because he has a litany of things wrong with his mechanics and he has by far the most significant injury history of anyone in the running for a high QB pick.

Take a look at the Vikings and KOC's offense, and then take a look at Cousins. You could argue that a player like Cousins is as close to a blueprint for what KOC wants in a QB; someone who can make quick reads, stand in the pocket, deliver the ball on time, and throw people open. Which of the QB's in this draft remind you the most of Cousins? It ain't Penix. Is it Maye? Is it McCarthy? Who knows. The most common strength of Penix seems to be, "he throws a great deep ball". That is far from the most important part of KOC's offense right now.

Maybe it's even Nix? People focus sometimes on talent too much over FIT. Which of these QBs fit what those teams want to do. It's not all the same, and their draft boards aren't all the same.

If Souhan thinks the Vikings are going to pick McCarthy because he outplayed Penix in the Natty, he's even dumber than any of us thought he was. And that's a pretty low bar.

 

[Gophers1992]

Souhan is a f'ng moron and doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. Nobody knows who the Vikings "love" and who's moving up draft boards and down draft boards. And Souhan is regurgitating the same tired drivel about defending Penix that most of the MSM feels compelled to do in order to protect Penix.

The perception of Penix is sliding because he has a litany of things wrong with his mechanics and he has by far the most significant injury history of anyone in the running for a high QB pick.

Take a look at the Vikings and KOC's offense, and then take a look at Cousins. You could argue that a player like Cousins is as close to a blueprint for what KOC wants in a QB; someone who can make quick reads, stand in the pocket, deliver the ball on time, and throw people open. Which of the QB's in this draft remind you the most of Cousins? It ain't Penix. Is it Maye? Is it McCarthy? Who knows. The most common strength of Penix seems to be, "he throws a great deep ball". That is far from the most important part of KOC's offense right now.

Maybe it's even Nix? People focus sometimes on talent too much over FIT. Which of these QBs fit what those teams want to do. It's not all the same, and their draft boards aren't all the same.

If Souhan thinks the Vikings are going to pick McCarthy because he outplayed Penix in the Natty, he's even dumber than any of us thought he was. And that's a pretty low bar.

I agree with you in general. Souhan is an assclown plain and simple, regardless of the fact that I agreed with some of what he said in this article. And you're correct, the Vikings and every other NFL franchise that pays people good money to evaluate these guys, are not making a decision purely based on what happened in the national title game, and the public perception that goes with it.

I think he (accidentally) makes a good point that fans and commentators are too enamored with "winners" and other intangible traits that we can't really evaluate.

Penix has flaws in his game that go way beyond a poor performance against Michigan, and that is why he won't be a top 10 pick, and maybe not even a first rounder.

Fit matters, but if a guy doesn't have the tools to succeed, he's not going to fit anywhere.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Souhan is a f'ng moron and doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. Nobody knows who the Vikings "love" and who's moving up draft boards and down draft boards. And Souhan is regurgitating the same tired drivel about defending Penix that most of the MSM feels compelled to do in order to protect Penix.

The perception of Penix is sliding because he has a litany of things wrong with his mechanics and he has by far the most significant injury history of anyone in the running for a high QB pick.

Take a look at the Vikings and KOC's offense, and then take a look at Cousins. You could argue that a player like Cousins is as close to a blueprint for what KOC wants in a QB; someone who can make quick reads, stand in the pocket, deliver the ball on time, and throw people open. Which of the QB's in this draft remind you the most of Cousins? It ain't Penix. Is it Maye? Is it McCarthy? Who knows. The most common strength of Penix seems to be, "he throws a great deep ball". That is far from the most important part of KOC's offense right now.

Maybe it's even Nix? People focus sometimes on talent too much over FIT. Which of these QBs fit what those teams want to do. It's not all the same, and their draft boards aren't all the same.

If Souhan thinks the Vikings are going to pick McCarthy because he outplayed Penix in the Natty, he's even dumber than any of us thought he was. And that's a pretty low bar.

The only thing better than the Vikes drafting Penix, would be if the Cards did

Will be interesting to see if Penix has a better career than Murray or any of the QBs drafted in front of him. Your seemingly enmity for him is a bit intense.
As noted in the post previous to yours, part of the reason I posted Souhan’s article, is because, he’s “so beloved.”

 

[Gophers1992]

The only thing better than the Vikes drafting Penix, would be if the Cards did

Will be interesting to see if Penix has a better career than Murray or any of the QBs drafted in front of him. Your seemingly enmity for him is a bit intense.
As noted in the post previous to yours, part of the reason I posted Souhan’s article, is because, he’s “so beloved.”

If the Vikings think Penix is anywhere close to Murray (he's not), they should do whatever it takes to get him in Purple.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

If the Vikings think Penix is anywhere close to Murray (he's not), they should do whatever it takes to get him in Purple.

Pro sports landscape is littered with players who had unlimited talent and limited work ethic; regardless of which team ends up with Penix, he won’t get cheated out of maxing out his ability - coming back off all those injuries is a testament to it.

The other guy?

We’re still waiting on him.

 

[Gophers1992]

Pro sports landscape is littered with players who had unlimited talent and limited work ethic; regardless of which team ends up with Penix, he won’t get cheated out of maxing out his ability - coming back off all those injuries is a testament to it.

The other guy?

We’re still waiting on him.

View attachment 31111

Regardless of how much he "maxes out" his abilities, those abilities don't come anywhere close to what Kyler Murray can do even on an off day. And if we're going to pat Penix on the back for maxing out his abilities in college, surely we have to do the same for a guy who won the Heisman, right?

There is literally not one thing that Michael Penix does better than Kyler Murray on the field.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Regardless of how much he "maxes out" his abilities, those abilities don't come anywhere close to what Kyler Murray can do even on an off day. And if we're going to pat Penix on the back for maxing out his abilities in college, surely we have to do the same for a guy who won the Heisman, right?

The point I was making is that there won’t be complaints about him not watching enough film or studying the playbook when he’s a professional, as there has been with Murray, because he’s had to learn to be a grinder, which you do when recovering from those types of injuries or significant health issues. That’s the crux of my analogy, while Murray represents the juxtaposition of it.

Murray was able to get by on his natural ability in college and didn’t have to learn or cared about learning the grind - hence his issues with it now.

The point I was making wasn’t as surface level as you thought it was.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

The only thing better than the Vikes drafting Penix, would be if the Cards did

Will be interesting to see if Penix has a better career than Murray or any of the QBs drafted in front of him. Your seemingly enmity for him is a bit intense.

My thoughts regarding Penix are much more about the coverage of him and the propping him up that some outlets feel compelled to do. It happens every year with certain QB prospects, this year it's Penix.

Basically, with him the evaluation between the scouting guys/experts and the media, ESPN, NFL Network seems to be quite a bit different from each other. He's an older player, which generally means you've seen the ceiling; he has an EXTENSIVE injury history (in the war rooms, the medicals are HUGE it appears); he feasted on PAC-12 defenses, with one of the best supporting casts in all of FBS, and from the few scout deep dive evaluations I've seen, he has some pretty serious flaws in his mechanics.

I'm just saying I don't see 1st round on him. IF you can take him after pick #70 or so? Take a swing, sure.

 

[MplsGopher]

they should do whatever it takes

Simply cannot and will not agree with such an attitude when the miss rate is so high for QB’s and you have a team nearly winning the SB with a 7th rounder (Mr Irrelevant at that).

Wayyyyyyyy too much absolute cow dung hype and pressure is put on drafting a QB as the end all be all savior of the franchise.

Bunk


It’s NFL Media Industrial Complex talk-fodder more than anything. Gives them something to talk about to pay their salaries.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

My thoughts regarding Penix are much more about the coverage of him and the propping him up that some outlets feel compelled to do. It happens every year with certain QB prospects, this year it's Penix.

Basically, with him the evaluation between the scouting guys/experts and the media, ESPN, NFL Network seems to be quite a bit different from each other. He's an older player, which generally means you've seen the ceiling; he has an EXTENSIVE injury history (in the war rooms, the medicals are HUGE it appears); he feasted on PAC-12 defenses, with one of the best supporting casts in all of FBS, and from the few scout deep dive evaluations I've seen, he has some pretty serious flaws in his mechanics.

I'm just saying I don't see 1st round on him. IF you can take him after pick #70 or so? Take a swing, sure.

Far enough and thanks for clarifying.

I am biased as I have a propensity to root for the underdog, especially if they’re overcoming injuries.

 

[MplsGopher]

After that absolute rube-bait horse crap that Leber and Sauce were spewing this morning about how the Vikings “have” to get a QB in the first round ….. F that.

I want so badly more than anything for the Vikings to not take a QB on Thurs. just to F with the rubes who think it’s the end of the world if they don’t.

 

[Gophers1992]

Simply cannot and will not agree with such an attitude when the miss rate is so high for QB’s and you have a team nearly winning the SB with a 7th rounder (Mr Irrelevant at that).

Wayyyyyyyy too much absolute cow dung hype and pressure is put on drafting a QB as the end all be all savior of the franchise.

Bunk


It’s NFL Media Industrial Complex talk-fodder more than anything. Gives them something to talk about to pay their salaries.

You cut off my quote that said "if he's anything like Kyler Murray", which he's not, not even close, so it's a moot point.

I am in agreement with you that the idea that the Vikings "have to take a QB" is dumb.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Far enough and thanks for clarifying.

I am biased as I have a propensity to root for the underdog, especially if they’re overcoming injuries.

I like Penix. He seems like a great dude that has a lot of the intangibles you're looking for in a starting QB. It's just that with him, there is such a dramatic, stark contrast in opinions on his ability to be an NFL franchise QB between media types/mock drafters, and the people who actually study the position. And again, the artificial propping him up is frustrating, but it happens every year.

Three years ago we heard about what a travesty it was that Justin Fields was "sliding in mock drafts" leading up to the draft, how terrible it would be if he fell out of the top 3, etc. A couple of years ago, Malik Willis was being talked about in the top 5, top 10 and he went in the 3rd. Will Levis last year being talked about in the top 10, being taken in the top of the 2nd, et al.

 

[Gophers1992]

I like Penix. He seems like a great dude that has a lot of the intangibles you're looking for in a starting QB. It's just that with him, there is such a dramatic, stark contrast in opinions on his ability to be an NFL franchise QB between media types/mock drafters, and the people who actually study the position. And again, the artificial propping him up is frustrating, but it happens every year.

Three years ago we heard about what a travesty it was that Justin Fields was "sliding in mock drafts" leading up to the draft, how terrible it would be if he fell out of the top 3, etc. A couple of years ago, Malik Willis was being talked about in the top 5, top 10 and he went in the 3rd. Will Levis last year being talked about in the top 10, being taken in the top of the 2nd, et al.

The Justin Fields one is particularly fascinating because to this day people still bend over backwards to defend him, despite him being obviously terrible. I think it's a weird combination of him being a good fantasy football QB, him producing some incredible highlight reel plays, and unfortunately the race card seems to get thrown out a lot with him.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I like Penix. He seems like a great dude that has a lot of the intangibles you're looking for in a starting QB. It's just that with him, there is such a dramatic, stark contrast in opinions on his ability to be an NFL franchise QB between media types/mock drafters, and the people who actually study the position. And again, the artificial propping him up is frustrating, but it happens every year.

Three years ago we heard about what a travesty it was that Justin Fields was "sliding in mock drafts" leading up to the draft, how terrible it would be if he fell out of the top 3, etc. A couple of years ago, Malik Willis was being talked about in the top 5, top 10 and he went in the 3rd. Will Levis last year being talked about in the top 10, being taken in the top of the 2nd, et al.

Fields has a golden opportunity now, with Pitt. Great coach, franchise and can learn from Russ for a year.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

The Justin Fields one is particularly fascinating because to this day people still bend over backwards to defend him, despite him being obviously terrible. I think it's a weird combination of him being a good fantasy football QB, him producing some incredible highlight reel plays, and unfortunately the race card seems to get thrown out a lot with him.

Yes, unfortunately, this most often seems to be at the heart of it.

 

[Gophers1992]

Fields has a golden opportunity now, with Pitt. Great coach, franchise and can learn from Russ for a year.

I'll be happy for Fields if he can somehow turn things around - by all accounts he seems like a good guy, but there's zero reason to believe he has what it takes, based on what he has shown in 3 NFL seasons.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

I'll be happy for Fields if he can somehow turn things around - by all accounts he seems like a good guy, but there's zero reason to believe he has what it takes, based on what he has shown in 3 NFL seasons.

The "worldwide leader" was pimping Fields for league MVP early last season. Solid take, Orlovsky and company

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Whoa!

The Jets trade Zach Wilson to the Denver Broncos, basically paying the Broncos a small fee for taking him off their hands. That makes the Broncos QB room Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham (who I actually like to some extent).

Does that change the Broncos QB plans in the draft?

 

[MplsGopher]

Isn’t that the same thing as us getting Darnold?

 

[GophersInIowa]

Regardless of how much he "maxes out" his abilities, those abilities don't come anywhere close to what Kyler Murray can do even on an off day. And if we're going to pat Penix on the back for maxing out his abilities in college, surely we have to do the same for a guy who won the Heisman, right?

There is literally not one thing that Michael Penix does better than Kyler Murray on the field.

I bet he can throw a ball with his left hand better than Murray.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Michael Lombardi chiming in again on his show on VSiN that a #8/#11 pick swap between Atlanta and Minnesota for the tampering would be awfully LIGHT punishment on the Falcons; the Dolphins LOST a 1st rounder altogether for the tampering with Brady a few years ago.

He also says this needs to come out in the next 48 hours, well before the draft so teams can adjust. There could be something here, fingers crossed. That's a lot of value there

 

[Gophers1992]

I bet he can throw a ball with his left hand better than Murray.

Sometimes you get beat and just need to tip your cap to your opponent. Well done.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

ran across an article that Penix wrote for the "Players Tribune." link:

A Letter to NFL GMs | By Michael Penix Jr.

This job isn’t just about 60 minutes on Sunday, and what you use to judge my fit as a leader has got to include what’s outside those white lines.

www.theplayerstribune.com

He makes an interesting case for himself. gist of the article is about how he has had to overcome adversity in his life and football career. notes that as a QB, led Indiana to one of its best seasons in years, and then did the same thing at Washington.

article ends with:

So I have no problem taking all the MRI’s and X-rays you ask of me.
Truth is, it’s an EKG that will tell you everything you need to know about me.
Mike

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

ran across an article that Penix wrote for the "Players Tribune." link:

A Letter to NFL GMs | By Michael Penix Jr.

This job isn’t just about 60 minutes on Sunday, and what you use to judge my fit as a leader has got to include what’s outside those white lines.

www.theplayerstribune.com

He makes an interesting case for himself. gist of the article is about how he has had to overcome adversity in his life and football career. notes that as a QB, led Indiana to one of its best seasons in years, and then did the same thing at Washington.

article ends with:

So I have no problem taking all the MRI’s and X-rays you ask of me.
Truth is, it’s an EKG that will tell you everything you need to know about me.
Mike

I’ll roll with him and he’s gonna be a winner for any team that drafts him; tough times don’t last, but tough people do.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I'll be happy for Fields if he can somehow turn things around - by all accounts he seems like a good guy, but there's zero reason to believe he has what it takes, based on what he has shown in 3 NFL seasons.

True dat, but the counter is, he was on a God awful team, which had 2 or 3 O-Coordinators in his first three seasons, didn’t have a true number one receiver this year (until they traded for DJ. Moore for this season). And a franchise whose best QB is McMahon, horrible.

Mike Tomlin isn’t anyone’s fool and that trade doesn’t happen without his blessing; I’ll roll with his judgment over you, me or anyone else on this board. Last time I checked, he’s the only one who has a SB on his CV as a coach - I can be humble occasionally

 

[kg21]

After that absolute rube-bait horse crap that Leber and Sauce were spewing this morning about how the Vikings “have” to get a QB in the first round ….. F that.

I want so badly more than anything for the Vikings to not take a QB on Thurs. just to F with the rubes who think it’s the end of the world if they don’t.

I was that way last year with you........wanting them draft a WR to watch you melt down.

It was kind of epic!

No one on this board knows who will bust or be good.

Relax, buddy!