Which current Power 5 head coaches are the best and worst vs. the Top 25? (The Worst: T(9) PJ Fleck – Minnesota – 20% (4-16))

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BleedGopher

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T(9) PJ Fleck – Minnesota – 20% (4-16)

After posting a 1-5 (16%) record vs. the Top 25 at Western Michigan (2013-16), PJ Fleck’s fortunes have improved only marginally to a 3-11 (21%) mark during his first six seasons at Minnesota. He hasn’t beaten a Top 25 team since Nov. 27, 2021, scoring a 23-13 win over (18) Wisconsin. Fleck pulls in five million dollars in total pay, the No. 31 mark overall.

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Which current Power 5 head coaches are the best and worst vs. the Top 25?

A look at the Power 5 college football head coaches with the best and worst records against teams in the Top 25.
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Go Gophers!!
 



Interesting the list of bad coaches are a who is who of the midwest
And the good coaches are south and west

Almost like playing overrated teams gets you a better record vs ranked teams.

Heupel gets a ranked win for beating 6-7 Florida 😂
 




Some guy said:
Interesting the list of bad coaches are a who is who of the midwest
And the good coaches are south and west

Almost like playing overrated teams gets you a better record vs ranked teams.

Heupel gets a ranked win for beating 6-7 Florida 😂
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I want the list on where they finished, not when they played. Texas a&m had 3 ranked wins last year. Miami who finished 5-7, Arkansas who went 7-6, and LSU who went 9-4. Agreed this list is moronic based on how they compiled it and gives bonus points for beating shit overrated teams
 






If PJ can start to win games where we fall behind some, he’ll improve this stat. So far, in six years, I think he’s won one regular season game in which we fell behind by 10 points at any time in the game. Against top teams, which can get out ahead of you early, you have to be able to come back from a deficit. This in my mind is PJ’s Achilles Heel. Given some of the teams we play this year, it would be a good year to break the habit.
 

upnorthkid said:
I want the list on where they finished, not when they played. Texas a&m had 3 ranked wins last year. Miami who finished 5-7, Arkansas who went 7-6, and LSU who went 9-4. Agreed this list is moronic based on how they compiled it and gives bonus points for beating shit overrated teams
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I don't know what the record would be but agree that ranked wins/loses should be based on the teams ranking at the end of the year and not when you happened to play that team.

Every year there are teams that are ranked highly and fall off the face of the Earth. If you are fortunate enough to play them early in the year you get credit for beating a ranked team when in reality you beat a bad/mediocre team that just happened to be ranked way too highly when you played them.
 





Who would you rather have? From the article:

THE BEST

(10) Mel Tucker – Michigan State – 50.00% (8-8)

Mel Tucker was 2-2 vs. ranked foes during his single season at Colorado (2019) and is 6-6 in his three seasons thus far at Michigan State. Though he’s keeping his head above water, he’s only pumped out one winning record in East Lansing – the 11-2 mark in 2021 – despite being the fifth-highest paid coach in the FBS (9.5 million smackaroos).

THE WORST

(5) Greg Schiano – Rutgers – 12.9% (4-27)

Greg Schiano is 0-9 vs. the Top 25 since returning to Rutgers in 2020. The last time the Scarlet Knights scored a win over a ranked squad with Schiano at the helm was Nov. 12, 2009, when they – as a Big East program – hosted (23) USF and blanked the Bulls 31-0. Schiano ranked No. 44 in total pay in 2022, earning four million dollars.

(4) Tom Allen – Indiana – 11.54% (3-23)

Tom Allen has had 26 opportunities to take down a Top 25 opponent in his six seasons at Indiana and has only been successful on three occasions. The trio of triumphs all came during the COVID-compromised 2020 season, a 36-35 home win vs. then (8) Penn State, a 38-21 victory over (23) Michigan, and a 14-6 decision at (18) Wisconsin. Allen pulls in 4.3 million dollars in total pay, No. 35 overall.

(3) Matt Rhule – Nebraska – 11.11% (2-16)

Matt Rhule’s two wins vs. the Top 25 as a FBS head coach came not during his three years at Baylor (2017-19) but instead during his four seasons at Temple (2013-16), downing (21) East Carolina in 2014 and at (20) Navy in 2016. Rhule posted a 0-11 mark vs. ranked opponents in Waco, which somehow got him the head job at the NFL Carolina Panthers where he went 11-27 from 2020-22. His starting salary at Nebraska is 5.5 million dollars.

(1) Mike Locksley – Maryland – 8% (2-23)

Mike Locksley’s head coaching career began at New Mexico where he went 0-7 vs. the Top 25 from 2009-11. His first stint at Maryland, when he was the interim for the final six games of the season, produced a 0-2 mark vs. ranked opponents. Since being named the Terrapins’ permanent head coach in 2019 Locksley is 2-14 vs. the ranked, the only two wins coming in 2019, a 63-20 beatdown of (21) Syracuse and in 2022, a 16-12 decision over (25) NC State in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Locksley makes four million dollars in total pay, No. 43 in the FBS.
 

The Fresno State team we beat in 2018 finished 11-2 and ranked in the top 25. Purdue in 2021 was also ranked for 2 non-consecutive weeks after their wins over then #2 Iowa and #3 Michigan State, but finished the season unranked.
 

BleedGopher said:
He hasn’t beaten a Top 25 team since Nov. 27, 2021
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Depends on which poll you use. Michigan State was ranked #21 in the USA Today Coaches poll when we beat them last September 34-7, never having to punt in the game. The Spartans were RV (#26) in the AP poll. Again, showing how arbitrary and somewhat meaningless a ranked win can or can't be.

That said, I was surprised at Matt Rhule's record. 0-11 vs. ranked teams at Baylor and 2-5 at Temple with wins over #21 East Carolina and #20 Navy.
 

If PJ has a winning conference record and beats NC this season he will no longer be considered mediocre.
 

What was Kill's record? Mason's?

My guess is not much better. Seems to me to be a program stat rather than a coaches stat.
 

hello-world said:
What was Kill's record? Mason's?

My guess is not much better. Seems to me to be a program stat rather than a coaches stat.
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Interesting question - and your right. There isn't much difference between the coaches post Wacker (unless you want to put too much credence in Jeff Horton's results).

PJ Fleck
3-11 (21.4%) against AP ranked teams* in 71 games
% of games against ranked opponents: 19.7%
Ranked Teams Beaten: Penn State, Auburn, Wisconsin
Games coached as a ranked team: (includes being in the final top 25): 12**
% of games as a ranked team: 16.9%

Tracy Claeys
0-5 (0%) against AP Ranked teams in 19 games
% of games against ranked opponents (includes being in the final top 25): 26.3%
Ranked Teams Beaten: None
Games coached as a ranked team: 0
% of games as a ranked team: 0%

Jerry Kill
2-14 (12.5%) against AP ranked teams in 58 games
% of games against ranked opponents: 27.5%
Ranked teams beaten: Nebraska x2
Games coached as a ranked team (total includes being in the final top 25): 1
% of games as a ranked team: 1.7%

Jeff Horton
1-2 (33.3%) against AP Ranked teams in 5 games
% of games against ranked opponents: 60%
Ranked Teams Beaten: Iowa
Games coached as a ranked team (total includes being in the final top 25): 0
% of games as a ranked team: 0%

Tim Brewster
0-10 (0%)against AP Ranked teams in 71 games
% of games against ranked opponents: 14%
Ranked Teams Beaten: None
Games coached as a ranked team (total includes being in the final top 25): 0
% of games as a ranked team: 0%

Glen Mason
6-26 (18.8%) against AP Ranked teams in 108 games
% of games against ranked opponents: 29.6%
Ranked Teams Beaten: Purdue, Michigan, Arkansas, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State
Games coached as a ranked team (total includes being in the final top 25): 31
% of games as a ranked team: 28.7%

*Source: Sports-Reference.com
**I did not include pre-season rankings. Fleck is the only coach with an anomaly here from 2020. The Gophers were ranked for multiple weeks during the season before the Big Ten started playing. I did not include pre-season rankings as that would reflect in the first game played as playing as a ranked team. I did include final rankings inclusion, as that indicates greater success than losing your bowl game and falling out of the rankings (not that that has happened much for us).
 
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For this to have any actionable meaning you’d have to a) believe the voters select the best 25 teams and b) a large sample size. Neither is the case here.
 

tjgopher said:
Depends on which poll you use. Michigan State was ranked #21 in the USA Today Coaches poll when we beat them last September 34-7, never having to punt in the game. The Spartans were RV (#26) in the AP poll. Again, showing how arbitrary and somewhat meaningless a ranked win can or can't be.

That said, I was surprised at Matt Rhule's record. 0-11 vs. ranked teams at Baylor and 2-5 at Temple with wins over #21 East Carolina and #20 Navy.
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That is one season and one bowl game ago. We played two ranked teams last year: Illinois right after the Purdue debacle, and the #7 team in the final AP Poll in Penn State the next week.

While it is a fact we haven't beaten an AP ranked team since November 21, 2021, we're talking a total of 2 chances in 14 games, although we were favored in the Illinois game, coming off of that soul crushing, self inflicted loss, that's not exactly shocking in College football. Penn State was the better team by far last year.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
For this to have any actionable meaning you’d have to a) believe the voters select the best 25 teams and b) a large sample size. Neither is the case here.
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didn't say it had any meaning. Question asked, I was curious, I looked it up, I shared it. OP was correct, nothing that suggests the results are significantly different than any other coach prior in Fleck's results regardless of circumstances around the results. We're getting more of the same.
 

caliGopher said:
didn't say it had any meaning. Question asked, I was curious, I looked it up, I shared it. OP was correct, nothing that suggests the results are significantly different than any other coach prior in Fleck's results regardless of circumstances around the results. We're getting more of the same.
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As you pointed out in your previous posts, there are many ways to determine record against ranked teams. I would think the final rankings would be the best indicator, but you rightly wrote that bowl game wins and losses can have a bigger factor on rankings than games during the season. Also, players opting out of post season games can get influence game results too.

A few more thoughts:
1. There are 129 FBS teams, which means that overall, a team has 19.3% chance to play a ranked team during a 12 game season, or 2.4 ranked teams per season.
2. Since B1G and SEC usually finish the season with more ranked teams than the other conferences, the chance of playing a ranked team is higher.
3. A team could be unlucky in the ranked teams it does play. Next year, Minnesota will likely lose to two teams in the top 5. Replace those teams with lower ranked teams and the chances for wins against the top 25 are greater.
 

caliGopher said:
That is one season and one bowl game ago. We played two ranked teams last year: Illinois right after the Purdue debacle, and the #7 team in the final AP Poll in Penn State the next week.
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I know, I'm suggesting we may have played three ranked teams last year if you use the USA Today Coaches Poll.....MSU was #21 in that ranking when we whipped them in East Lansing.

I'm not sure what you mean by that was one season and one bowl game ago.
 

The article is right. PJ has not been very good at beating ranked teams.
 

Spoofin said:
The article is right. PJ has not been very good at beating ranked teams.
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Last year the final AP top 25 was 266
-74 against all opponents (.782)

Meaning teams beat ranked opponents .218 of the time
PJ Fleck beats ranked opponents .2 of the time.

I agree he hasn’t been very good. He also hasn’t been significantly bad either
 

I know that my rose colored glasses are all fogged up in the Georgia humidity, but I only remember us playing 3 top 25 teams. Penn State in 2019, Auburn on January 1, 2020 (I was there so I know we won) and then the badgers in 2021. That's 100%, right?
 

Some guy said:
Last year the final AP top 25 was 266
-74 against all opponents (.782)

Meaning teams beat ranked opponents .218 of the time
PJ Fleck beats ranked opponents .2 of the time.

I agree he hasn’t been very good. He also hasn’t been significantly bad either
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Your math works, but it treats all unranked teams evenly. We are a P5 team trying to compete in the B1G. PJ has been pretty bad at beating good teams. We had this same discussion on here with the PJ vs Brohm debate so I have already heard all the excuses why this stat doesn’t matter. I’m not buying it 🤷‍♂️
 

Spoofin said:
Your math works, but it treats all unranked teams evenly. We are a P5 team trying to compete in the B1G. PJ has been pretty bad at beating good teams. We had this same discussion on here with the PJ vs Brohm debate so I have already heard all the excuses why this stat doesn’t matter. I’m not buying it 🤷‍♂️
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I’m fairly certain nobody has said that wins vs ranked teams don’t matter, but then again it’s fun to make things up.
 

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