Where recruits come from

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AO54 said:
Here's a life lesson. Don't use race as a predictor. You might be right some of the time or even most of the time, but when you're wrong the consequences outweigh the rewards of your previous predictions.
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also, it's best not to use data to base your decisions on because there is a chance that you may be wrong and that chance outweighs the 90% of the time you'd be right. gotcha.
 


Gopherprof said:
I agree with all of this. The thing is, the argument isn't over whether culture plays a part. I agree that culture plays an important, though clearly lesser, role. He maintains that race plays NO part, which is absurd.

As to your last point about skin pigmentation, when the skin pigmentation is the most obvious (and in this case at a marco-level, only) marker of said genetics of muscles and internal components, it's relevant.
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i can agree with this point. just don't like how some over-generalize and assume ALL african americans are faster and stronger than caucasians. not saying you specifically are doing this but just a general point
 

The door is open, here's a few more stats.

Number of Recruits Rank--
1. TEX
2. FLA
3. CAL
4. GEO
5. OHI
6. ALA
7. LOU
8. PEN
9. ILL
10. MCH
11. NCAR
12. VIR

Black population (raw numbers, not percentage) Rank--
1. NY
2. FLA
3. TEX
4. GEO
5. CAL
6. NCAR
7. ILL
8. MAR
9. VIR
10. LOU
11. OHI
12. MCH
13. PEN
15. ALA

New York and Maryland the aberration. Both tend to be "basketball" oriented. Otherwise the two lists are striking.

As Bud Grant said "statistics are for losers". It's things like this that are hard to discuss because each side has a presupposed opinion of race and racism, and a presupposed opinion on what should be discussed and not discussed. It's obvious that climate may have something to do with it. There are about as many blacks in Arizona or Oklahoma as in Minnesota, but the number of recruits from those two states are substantially higher (of which we don't know how many recruits are black, white, green or purple). Washington state has about the same black population (about 10% less actually), but has about double the number of recruits. The climate is more temperate there, and here in Arizona it's going to be around 85-90 degrees for tonight's local HS game.

According to MaxPreps, there are 257 high schools in Arizona that play football. 370 in Oklahoma, 341 in Washington, 447 in Minnesota.

That's even more striking. What does it say about the quality of Minnesota football in general? Has the "quality of life" made Minnesota football players "soft"?

I certainly don't have an answer, but it is interesting to discuss.
 

mggoph said:
Hey! I'm one of those slow white guys!
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I am also one but I am not a ice fisherman. The worst 10 minutes of my life were spent ice fishing outdoors. I remember that the temperature was substantially below zero along with a very high winds. My dad tried to keep the ice hole open but it would freeze over in a matter seconds. After about 10 minutes of this my dad ask me if I wanted to go and I said yes. With that, the two of us packed up in record time and became two white speed guys racing to our car. While doing that I made a promise to never do that again.
 


Killjoy said:
I am also one but I am not a ice fisherman. The worst 10 minutes of my life were spent ice fishing outdoors. I remember that the temperature was substantially below zero along with a very high winds. My dad tried to keep the ice hole open but it would freeze over in a matter seconds. After about 10 minutes of this my dad ask me if I wanted to go and I said yes. With that, the two of us packed up in record time and became two white speed guys racing to our car. While doing that I made a promise to never do that again.
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I thought you were the guy who stated, "The only time I went ice fishing, by the time we got a hole in the ice big enough for our boat, it was time to go home."
 

highwayman said:
The door is open, here's a few more stats.

Number of Recruits Rank--
1. TEX
2. FLA
3. CAL
4. GEO
5. OHI
6. ALA
7. LOU
8. PEN
9. ILL
10. MCH
11. NCAR
12. VIR

Black population (raw numbers, not percentage) Rank--
1. NY
2. FLA
3. TEX
4. GEO
5. CAL
6. NCAR
7. ILL
8. MAR
9. VIR
10. LOU
11. OHI
12. MCH
13. PEN
15. ALA

New York and Maryland the aberration. Both tend to be "basketball" oriented. Otherwise the two lists are striking.

As Bud Grant said "statistics are for losers". It's things like this that are hard to discuss because each side has a presupposed opinion of race and racism, and a presupposed opinion on what should be discussed and not discussed. It's obvious that climate may have something to do with it. There are about as many blacks in Arizona or Oklahoma as in Minnesota, but the number of recruits from those two states are substantially higher (of which we don't know how many recruits are black, white, green or purple). Washington state has about the same black population (about 10% less actually), but has about double the number of recruits. The climate is more temperate there, and here in Arizona it's going to be around 85-90 degrees for tonight's local HS game.

According to MaxPreps, there are 257 high schools in Arizona that play football. 370 in Oklahoma, 341 in Washington, 447 in Minnesota.

That's even more striking. What does it say about the quality of Minnesota football in general? Has the "quality of life" made Minnesota football players "soft"?

I certainly don't have an answer, but it is interesting to discuss.
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well i'm gonna go with there is some extra info on MN HS fb that we don't see in those other states. MN has 67 9 man teams. the other states. OK has 1 (school for the deaf), Arizona has 24, wash 42. percentages: MN 15%, wash 12%, Arizona 9%, OK less than 1. may partially skew the data. just thought it was an interesting topic
 

TLHGO4 said:
Last time I checked it doesn't seem to hold for ice hockey.
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I know as much about hockey as I do my microwave, but I'm pretty sure they're on skates? That would seem to be a bit of an equalizer.
 

upnorthkid said:
i can agree with this point. just don't like how some over-generalize and assume ALL african americans are faster and stronger than caucasians. not saying you specifically are doing this but just a general point
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No I agree. Actually I found this comment from the comments section on that article (I love football study hall) really interesting. I'll quote it in its entirety.

I just heard a story on NPR. About athletic ability and the strong concentration of Olympic level sprinters that are of african decent. The researcher (who incidentally hid his data for years because of the controversial nature) Indicated that something like 98% of all human genetics are present in africa, so not only are you more likely to find the fastest person on earth you are also more likely to find the slowest person on earth with african genetics. But of course, we actively search for the fastest people on earth and no one looks for the slowest people on earth.
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I'm no expert on these matters, but I do know at least a little bit about recent studies into the diversity of African DNA and the "Out of Africa" theory and that would make a ton of sense.
 



Gopherprof said:
Haha....ok fine. I actually like wikipedia as a quick reference for facts and figures. And to read about how my microwave works because my understanding of physics stalled in high school.
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Microwave: harmonic frequency excites molecule thus causing heat.
 

upnorthkid said:
well i'm gonna go with there is some extra info on MN HS fb that we don't see in those other states. MN has 67 9 man teams. the other states. OK has 1 (school for the deaf), Arizona has 24, wash 42. percentages: MN 15%, wash 12%, Arizona 9%, OK less than 1. may partially skew the data. just thought it was an interesting topic
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This is a good point. As much as out-staters don't like to hear it, MN football is basically just the Twin Cities (and really only a few conferences at that) when it comes to FBS recruits.

That said, large rural states like Arizona and Oklahoma would seem to be playing with the same disadvantages, so I wonder how they avoid so many 9-man teams.
 

Excellent article. I too would like to see it correlated to population density, income, eyeballs on TV's Saturday, etc.

If the correlation is strong against these other factors it suggests you'd be swimming upstream trying to change it. But if it isn't overwhelmingly strong it suggests we could change things.

We've talked a lot about things like Spring Football, etc, Might there be an opportunity to change things? If MN indexed to the national average they'd produce 25 D1 signees per year. There's only one D1 school in the state. MN kids are predisposed to sign with the Gophers.
 

Dean S said:
Microwave: harmonic frequency excites molecule thus causing heat.
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And melts the chocolate bar in your shirt pocket.

I had a previous girlfriend I named "Microwave".
 



Minnesota football loses a lot of athletes to hockey.
 

From my point of view, the major problem is the development of youth programs and high school programs. In many cases, it is not placed at a higher emphasis or that there are many coaches who just don't know what they are doing. They may mean well, but are just not educated enough to teach these kids the skills, the off season work effort, and techniques to be successful. More needs to be done in helping educate these youth and high schools coaches to be better at their development of these young men.

I understand Goldenprof thought process, but why is Minneapolis and Saint Paul not producing more Division 1 football players. In the last ten years, I can only think of 3 players in the last ten years that grew up in those cities that received Division 1 scholarships and one is still in high school. With better develop, stronger leaders and most important extremely strong role models, maybe more can receive this great opportunity. Those states in the top ten put a strong emphasis on football, and we simply do not.
 

Dr.Don said:
I thought you were the guy who stated, "The only time I went ice fishing, by the time we got a hole in the ice big enough for our boat, it was time to go home."
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Nah - That was somebody else. We had an even worse problem when we tried to use a boat. Since we were going ice fishing we thought we needed an ice boat so we made one. The problem was that it was an unseasonably warm winter day when we tried it out and damn thing melted.
 

upnorthkid said:
look. you guys are both obviously right. culture plays a big role in that it pushes kids to play and drive themselves to achieve success in football. african americans are also pre-disposed to have better football (and overall sports requiring burst, jumping, speed, etc.) due to the evolutionary process we've undergone for a long long time. they have more of the proper muscle fibers that endow them with that talent. that is not to say that white kids can't have the same traits (hence why sons and daughters have a higher chance of also being successful athletes, but not always). no one here is being racist (i assume), but is just pointing out the genetic predisposition they have. it has nothing to do with the color of their skin, but the genetics of their muscles and other internal components.
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Didn't Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder get fired from TV for saying just that? In truth some Africans are extremely tall, most East Asians short, etc. But culture is a big factor, too - Thomas Sowell has a good book on that: "Race and Culture." And he's black.
 

People that think race doesn't play a part in athletics are fooling themselves.

People that think culture doesn't play a part in participation levels of certain sports are also fooling themselves.
 

BarnBoy said:
People that think race doesn't play a part in athletics are fooling themselves.

People that think culture doesn't play a part in participation levels of certain sports are also fooling themselves.
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Are you saying that there are fools here at the GopherHole?
 

IDFM said:
From my point of view, the major problem is the development of youth programs and high school programs. In many cases, it is not placed at a higher emphasis or that there are many coaches who just don't know what they are doing. They may mean well, but are just not educated enough to teach these kids the skills, the off season work effort, and techniques to be successful. More needs to be done in helping educate these youth and high schools coaches to be better at their development of these young men.

I understand Goldenprof thought process, but why is Minneapolis and Saint Paul not producing more Division 1 football players. In the last ten years, I can only think of 3 players in the last ten years that grew up in those cities that received Division 1 scholarships and one is still in high school. With better develop, stronger leaders and most important extremely strong role models, maybe more can receive this great opportunity. Those states in the top ten put a strong emphasis on football, and we simply do not.
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There has been a migration of Minneapolis and St. Paul athletes into the suburbs under various open enrollment plans and to private schools (Blake, Breck, CDH, DeLaSalle). The inner ring suburbs (and even some outer ring suburbs) have also become more diverse due to the availability of affordable housing and rental availability). I don't know this for fact, but I think the youth programs have been pretty much decimated in both the inner cities.

This has been a great discussion. I agree that the bottom line is that Minnesota, for a variety of reasons, is just not as football crazy as they are down South or in the Ohio/Pennsylvania. I bartended with a guy who moved to a small town in Texas to coach high school football and he came back one summer (after a few years of coaching) and regaled us with tales of absolute "Friday Night Lights" madness. The whole town was geared toward football. He even taught a high school physical education course that was limited to the football team and it was appropriately called "Football." When he got there, he decided to go with an all-underclassmen team to build for the future and had to dodge some pretty serious threats from senior parents. He almost got run out of town when his plan produced a winless team his first season. Two years later he was undefeated, but every school board meeting his first couple of seasons featured a parent (or set of parents) getting up and complaining about the football team. In Minnesota, that type of abuse is usually reserved for the mainstreet watering holes and the morning coffee cup conferences, but in Texas, it's pretty much "all football all the time." Granted, this is one example from a small Texas town, but they take that stuff a lot more seriously down there.

I think another problem in Minnesota has been the difficulty for a lot of our top-drawer athletes (of all races) to qualify academically. I want to clarify that I am not demeaning the native intelligence of any particular race with this comment because kids of all races have had this problem. Minnesota has a lot of alternative education programs and the NCAA doesn't pay those programs a lot of credence so kids attending outside of the regular K-12 environment have a higher bar to clear. Add to that the aforementioned open-enrollment issue and the can of academic worms that can create and a lot of Minnesota kids can find themselves having to navigate the clearinghouse.
 

Compare states by their % of black residents and you see some similarities...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

Check this list of states and sort it by % of black residents and it matches this list greatly.
I will list a few from the top:
DC 50%
Mississippi 37%
lousiana 32%
Georgia 30.5%
Maryland 29.4
S.C. 27.9

And the bottom:
Montana .4%
Idaho .6%
Wyoming .8%
Vermont 1.0%
Utah 1.1%

Exceptions would be, as someone has pointed out, Hawaii with a large pacific islander population that excels at football also. I cannot figure out Utah though? It also shows why the SEC is so strong but why has that changed more recently. Are their recruits staying home? Florida, Texas, and Cali do not rank near the top of this list, yet this where a majority of players come from. So in this case culture must come into play.

Wisconsin barely beats Minnesota on the football recruit list, so this is no excuse to not having a consistently decent football team. Not that all recruits stay home. And remember 1 division 1 team in this state.



mom8pop said:
I saw this on Deadspin and thought it was interesting. Provides a breakdown of where recruits are coming from and gives a per capita view.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/9/11/4718442/college-football-state-texas-california-florida
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Seems like the per capita number of FBS schools in a state has a huge influence on these numbers.
 

skauma said:
Minnesota football loses a lot of athletes to hockey.
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Yes. And the other states mentioned as similar to MN in population but with more FB recruits are not hockey states. In this era of kids deciding on one sport by jr hi in many cases, hockey will take kids in MN that would have been FB players elsewhere. What I find interesting is that MN kids are plentiful on the FB rosters of FCS and D2 teams (NDSU and UMD) that are national powers. Would be interested in reading theories for that.
 

FanSinceTheFifties said:
What I find interesting is that MN kids are plentiful on the FB rosters of FCS and D2 teams (NDSU and UMD) that are national powers. Would be interested in reading theories for that.
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Recruiting the level of team. I played in the Wright County Conference I was far from good, those schools seemed to scout the conference well. When you had perennial power houses like Glencoe and Delano, I think the schools are small enough where it is rare for the kids in these conferences to get a look from bigger colleges. Those NDSU and UMD schools will look, because the talent is there, but players don't typically get the media exposure since it is a nearly impossible for scouting type agencies to scout all the small school in the state and determine how good a kid really is considering the level of competition. Could be getting noticed by bigger programs takes state tournament exposure. Maxx Williams, Hoese, and Triplett are recent examples of UM players out of Wright County.
 

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