For me, it will be the following: the first 7 games are winnable, that being, they are games that we should either be favored to win or less than 5 point dogs. If we come out of those 7 games with a record of 7 - 0 or 6 - 1, that is the first big key to a successful season. The last half of the season being much more difficult is where a fast start may pay dividends. A key win against either Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, or Wisconsin, coupled with a win at Northwestern (this will also be a tough task), should equate to an 8, 9 or 10 win season ,any of which would be an excellent first season for Fleck and Company.
Best case scenario: win the first 7, beat Nebraska and Wisconsin at home and NW on the road winning 10 games headed for a January Bowl
Worst case scenario: win 5 of the first 7 and lose the rest as well, winning only 5 games
Best guess scenario: probably right in the middle someplace - having a 7 or 8 game winning season, winning 6 of the first 7 and 1 or 2 of the remaining games