What do you predict will happen to the 2020 college football season?

[GophersInIowa]

I think people are thinking that everything stops until disease goes away. Unlikely disease goes away in next year and a half.

Right now is about balancing peak vs medical capacity.

Once enough hospital capacity gets built up combined with enough people already being sick and recovered where the system won’t get swamped...everything will open up again even though some will still get sick and die.

They aren’t keeping the economy closed for a year and a half.

I think it will be a long time before everything is 100% back to normal. Restaurants and bars will open back up but there'll be restrictions on the number of people that can be in them at a time for instance.

If I had to guess right now, I think they'll play the games without fans. Of course things are constantly changing so my opinion may be completely different in a week or month.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

I think it will be a long time before everything is 100% back to normal. Restaurants and bars will open back up but there'll be restrictions on the number of people that can be in them at a time for instance.

If I had to guess right now, I think they'll play the games without fans. Of course things are constantly changing so my opinion may be completely different in a week or month.

I'm not convinced if you limited restaurants to 25 guests at a time (or any small - ish number) that would actually reduce the risk to the community if you allowed say 50.

I think once you hit exposure that could create exponential growth ... you've crossed and the amounts at a given location start to matter less.

 

[hello-world]

I think people are thinking that everything stops until disease goes away. Unlikely disease goes away in next year and a half.

Right now is about balancing peak vs medical capacity.

Once enough hospital capacity gets built up combined with enough people already being sick and recovered where the system won’t get swamped...everything will open up again even though some will still get sick and die.

They aren’t keeping the economy closed for a year and a half.

I agree that we aren't keeping the economy closed for 18 months, but I could certainly see the US limiting mass gatherings for the next 6 which would be enough to put the breaks on a college football season.

 

[MplsGopher]

I think it will be a long time before everything is 100% back to normal. Restaurants and bars will open back up but there'll be restrictions on the number of people that can be in them at a time for instance.

If I had to guess right now, I think they'll play the games without fans. Of course things are constantly changing so my opinion may be completely different in a week or month.

Right. These are the types of levers that can still be pulled, without just letting it go back to the way it was "full bore".

You can take the sqft. of the building, and divide it so that each person can have a 6ft radius around themselves, to establish maximum capacity. That type of thing.

 

[Some guy]

I agree that we aren't keeping the economy closed for 18 months, but I could certainly see the US limiting mass gatherings for the next 6 which would be enough to put the breaks on a college football season.

The United States government currently isn’t even limiting gatherings. Just recommending it

 

[Some guy]

I think it will be a long time before everything is 100% back to normal. Restaurants and bars will open back up but there'll be restrictions on the number of people that can be in them at a time for instance.

If I had to guess right now, I think they'll play the games without fans. Of course things are constantly changing so my opinion may be completely different in a week or month.

If I had to guess, I’d probably guess the same thing you just guessed.
But I don’t think this lasts as long as (some) people think.
I think it lasts lonthan some (other) people think.

People saying we will be open by the end of April fully are missing. People who are saying we will be shut down until a vaccine is widely distributed in the summer/fall 2021 might be even more wrong.

 

[MplsGopher]

Is there anyone advocating for nationwide lockdowns until a vaccine is made widely available?

If so, those people are mistaken. That will be physically impossible, because you're looking at 12-18 months from now.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Is there anyone advocating for nationwide lockdowns until a vaccine is made widely available?

If so, those people are mistaken. That will be physically impossible, because you're looking at 12-18 months from now.

The president might, it's not clear if he ever figured out how vaccine development works, or if the did if it stuck in his head. Even with the heads of those companies telling him how it works he seemed entirely confused / out of it.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Remember, the Shelter-in-place and stay-at-home orders are being issued by Governors, not the President.

it's questionable whether the President even has the authority to declare a national lock-down.

so - that means things will be handled on a state-by-state basis. What does that mean for football -
If one state (say MN) has relaxed its restrictions, but another state (say NEB) still has stricter restrictions in place, what happens if those two teams are scheduled to play each other?

I'm not saying games would necessarily be canceled, but I could see scheduling becoming very flexible, with games switching dates or locations based on different state regulations.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Sports are a massive part of the local/national economy. There will be a point, sooner than later that we learn how to manage this in the way we have learned how to manage other pandemic flu's and return to mostly normal activities. It will be much faster than people think, within the next few months.

Once things open back up, it will have to be as close to normal as possible. Bars/restaurants/sporting venues already operate on slim margins. and for the ones that do reopen, they won't stay open long if you limit the number of customers.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I think it's ultimately a question of liability.

If games are played - with fans in the stands or not - and someone gets exposed to covid-19, the line of lawyers waiting to file lawsuits will stretch from here to Mars.

the NCAA and the major conferences are not going to play games unless they are VERY sure that there is no significant risk to the players. and they will not let fans in the stands unless they are ABSOLUTELY
sure there is no potential liability.

I suppose you could ask fans to sign a waiver that they waive all right to sue if they are exposed, but who would sign that waiver?

Revenue is one thing - lawsuits are something else. One person gets covid-19 at a game and dies, and goodbye college football. (granted, proving they were exposed at the game may be problematic).

Health care workers are being denied worker’s compensation as they cannot prove the infection occurred at work. There will undoubtedly be lawsuits but proof is difficult. Failure to provide PPE is another ball of wax but that’s a whole other discussion.

Therefore IF national and state authorities reopen nonessential businesses, schools reopen, then there will likely be minimal legal exposure for the school and department. The lifting of social distancing bans is the 50-60 million dollar tv revenue question and that’s pretty hazy right now.

The first wave is predicted to finish in early June. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. I’d guess at the first sign of extensive community spread things shut down again. Public health needs to get on top of this now and going into the summer and fall and squash clusters or this could go on for a long, long time -sorry.

In short, no idea. I hope so.

 

[MplsGopher]

The first wave is predicted to finish in early June. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. I’d guess at the first sign of extensive community spread things shut down again.

I just think you can avoid all that .... if you go "scorched earth" on testing.

Make anyone who wants to come in the door, prove that they've had a negative test that day, or offer them a free test on the spot.

 

[hello-world]

Health care workers are being denied worker’s compensation as they cannot prove the infection occurred at work. There will undoubtedly be lawsuits but proof is difficult. Failure to provide PPE is another ball of wax but that’s a whole other discussion.

Therefore IF national and state authorities reopen nonessential businesses, schools reopen, then there will likely be minimal legal exposure for the school and department. The lifting of social distancing bans is the 50-60 million dollar tv revenue question and that’s pretty hazy right now.

The first wave is predicted to finish in early June. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. I’d guess at the first sign of extensive community spread things shut down again. Public health needs to get on top of this now and going into the summer and fall and squash clusters or this could go on for a long, long time -sorry.

In short, no idea. I hope so.

Right, it's not like people file lawsuits when they get the flu, or measles, or any other devastating disease. That said, I do think that Universities will be very hesitant to reopen sporting events because they employ a ton of epidemiologists who will without hesitation tell them to hold off if they are worried.

The Gophers haven't missed a season since 1885. They've played through the Spanish Flu, WWI, the Great Depression, WWII, Vietnam, etc. College football has a tradition of playing through hell or high water. I wouldn't be 'surprised' if they found a way to play this year. However, I have a feeling that between the uptick in deaths that we expect to see over the next few months and the uptick in Chinese cases when they tried to reopen, the US (not the US government, just the general collection of people) might have appetite to stay locked down and defer non-essential events for longer than we suspect.

 

[Lakeville Goldy]

Is that just a guess on your part, or are you in the know on the contact details? Whatever the contract stipulates may be a big driver in whether or not there are games. If ESPN/ABC/NBC/CBS/FOX all have to pay for the rights to games no matter what, that makes it much easier on ADs and NCAA to cancel the season -- if not, then either the games have to be played or a lot of ADs will have to cut sports on their campuses. Football will be the big loser in that equation, as it's by far the most expensive sport to field. I'm also guessing a lot of ADs have wanted to cut football for sometime, but alumni would riot. This may be the "never let a good crisis go to waste" moment for ADs that want to make big changes. If over the past decade football has been a revenue loser for a college, now is the time they can cut the program.

Everything I've read has said that NCAA doesn't get paid unless events happen and conference contracts are the same. So it would depend on each conference, whether or not they chose to insure.

Definitely no P5 schools cut football, but I could definitely see a few other schools cutting football. This would potentially be an opportunity for St. Thomas to cut football, for example, if they do get to go up to D1 and truly can't afford FCS w/ scholarships.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Right, it's not like people file lawsuits when they get the flu, or measles, or any other devastating disease. That said, I do think that Universities will be very hesitant to reopen sporting events because they employ a ton of epidemiologists who will without hesitation tell them to hold off if they are worried.

The Gophers haven't missed a season since 1885. They've played through the Spanish Flu, WWI, the Great Depression, WWII, Vietnam, etc. College football has a tradition of playing through hell or high water. I wouldn't be 'surprised' if they found a way to play this year. However, I have a feeling that between the uptick in deaths that we expect to see over the next few months and the uptick in Chinese cases when they tried to reopen, the US (not the US government, just the general collection of people) might have appetite to stay locked down and defer non-essential events for longer than we suspect.

I‘d argue this issue will boil down more to which public officials are up for re-election this year (they will be hyper sensitive to the optics of “putting people’s lives at risk”) and the prospect of potential risk of PR and varying fear of legal exposure for individual organizations and businesses.

Regarding the historical examples those were different times with different people and culture. Fear of legal exposure to the mass of ambulance chasing personal injury attorneys looking for a big payday is scary, and the social media mob is a PR nightmare that didn’t exist even ten-fifteen years ago.

 

[GSUsTALON]

The United States government currently isn’t even limiting gatherings. Just recommending it

But different Governors are with fines from $250.00 up to to 5000.00 to people that won't disburse from large groups. Some Governors are even talking jail time for repeat offenders, which I doubt will happen.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

I‘d argue this issue will boil down more to which public officials are up for re-election this year (they will be hyper sensitive to the optics of “putting people’s lives at risk”) and the prospect of potential risk of PR and varying fear of legal exposure for individual organizations and businesses.

That works both ways. There are many people who are currently unemployed and want sports back who also have a vote.

 

[Flecknation]

if we dont have a season how would this work? we would have an incoming class and would everyone be granted an extra year? we can only have to many players on the roster per NCAA (125) would we add 24 more slots for he rest of the NCAA history to bring it to? or would the senior class be force to not play their last year so we can keep the incoming class's and team sizes the same

if we allow an extra year i can see this being a problem with the next classes coming in and an unbalance for some teams.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

That works both ways. There are many people who are currently unemployed and want sports back who also have a vote.

Agree. There will be an interesting push and pull of health concerns vs economic concerns even more so than current. What are the individual incentives and costs? We calculate that every day for any number of things and people are very different.

I also predict a not-insignificant percentage of the population will continue to self-isolate for quite some time even after officials lift bans pending determination the virus is no longer a threat via herd immunity, ie 60-70+ percent infected and recovered, or effective medical interventions of which there are none beyond supplemental oxygen and mechanical ventilation with heavy sedation, induced paralysis for up to a couple weeks, the prospect of which can be a heavy disincentive.

 

[Jeshurun]

I don't know.

I'm kinda averse to bold predictions, as there is a sort of "prediction psychosis" out there on the internet where folks predict things and then wave it around that they were right about X, Y, or Z and seem to use that to bolster other ideas, but if you look at it .... it wasn't from any knowledge or etc, they just happened to be the stopped clock or predict the obvious or what might be more of a 50/50.... or often they predicted something when it was on the cusp of being the most obvious thing.

Anyway with that in mind I'll make a prediction

By football season the healthcare system will be passed the curve and it will be a "Take your chances folks." system.... so they play it, maybe with some restrictions, maybe none.


If they do limit attendance it should totally be based on gopher score... not because I have a high score or anything ...

The secret is just continue to predict crazy things. Eventually you’ll be right about one of them and people will forget all your predictions that didn’t pan out.

 

[Ope3]

At this point I do not think there will be a season, though leave open the slim possibility that a partial/delayed season may happen. Maybe a Big 10 West only slate.

Should there be a season, I will be pleasantly surprised.

 

[Livingat45north]

I don't think you're correct about ADs wanting to cut football. If they lose football then they're not managing $100 million businesses. That means they can no longer justify 7 figure salaries.

I'm not talking about P5 programs where football is a revenue maker, but all those legions of lesser programs, the Mexico States of the football world. A lot of those could disappear, including DII and DIII teams. It really could change the landscape of football, making for few teams, fewer games, and fewer scholarship slots.

 

[Veritas]

Might be unlikely to expect that when the season starts the NCAA will even have total control over making these calls. There may still be governmental restrictions on groupings of a certain size, more likely assuring at the least that if it is played, there won't be fans in the stands.

I'm generally optimistic, but i expect most large gatherings will be predominantly shut down until the very end of 2020 or early 2021.

I lean more towards the idea that there will be a season and only season ticket holders will be allowed in. That encourages people to buy season tickets and lets people sit as far apart as they want. Plus, it is cynical.

 

[Livingat45north]

Remember, the Shelter-in-place and stay-at-home orders are being issued by Governors, not the President.

it's questionable whether the President even has the authority to declare a national lock-down.

so - that means things will be handled on a state-by-state basis. What does that mean for football -
If one state (say MN) has relaxed its restrictions, but another state (say NEB) still has stricter restrictions in place, what happens if those two teams are scheduled to play each other?

I'm not saying games would necessarily be canceled, but I could see scheduling becoming very flexible, with games switching dates or locations based on different state regulations.

Per the constitution, the President does not have the authority to enforce a national lock-down. He can suggest it happen, but he can't mandate it. Congress could do that, and with the President's signature it would become law, but a President cannot do that on his own. Having said that, at the very start of COVID Trump did shut down incoming flights from China on his own. Pelosi, Schumer and Biden went on rants against him stopping those flights, but they didn't force the issue to get them reopened.

 

[GringaGopher]

I think it's unlikely there will be a FB season. I hope I'm wrong but as Dr. Fauci has said " the virus will determine how long this epidemic lasts ".

 

[Livingat45north]

I lean more towards the idea that there will be a season and only season ticket holders will be allowed in. That encourages people to buy season tickets and lets people sit as far apart as they want. Plus, it is cynical.

What? Are you saying if people want to "sit far apart" they're going to buy season tickets for seats that they won't use, and that way make sure they're empty? Right... Are you planing to buy an entire section of season tickets so no one will be standing in your way? Yep, you are cynical alright.

 

[Veritas]

Per the constitution, the President does not have the authority to enforce a national lock-down. He can suggest it happen, but he can't mandate it. Congress could do that, and with the President's signature it would become law, but a President cannot do that on his own. Having said that, at the very start of COVID Trump did shut down incoming flights from China on his own. Pelosi, Schumer and Biden went on rants against him stopping those flights, but they didn't force the issue to get them reopened.

Where did you get that first line. There is nothing in the Constitution anything like that.

What? Are you saying if people want to "sit far apart" they're going to buy season tickets for seats that they won't use, and that way make sure they're empty? Right... Are you planing to buy an entire section of season tickets so no one will be standing in your way? Yep, you are cynical alright.

 

[Veritas]

24,000 people in a stadium that seats 50,000 allows exactly what I said, it allows people to sit where they want. Duh!

 

[Livingat45north]

Where did you get that first line

The line, "Per the constitution, the President does not have the authority to enforce a national lock-down."? I typed it. Kind of obvious...

 

[Livingat45north]

24,000 people in a stadium that seats 50,000 allows exactly what I said, it allows people to sit where they want. Duh!

Okay, I'll play along. So now what are you and your cynical mind scheming? You're going to buy 26,000 (actually it'd have to be 26,806) season tickets leaving only 23,999 left for everyone else, so that way only 24,000 could attend the games. Brilliant plan. I certainly hope this is just bit you've got going Veritas and this isn't really how you are in life. Thanks for the humor though.