What do you predict will happen to the 2020 college football season?

What do you predict will happen to the 2020 college football season?

  • The 2020 college football season will be played as normal, with rowdy fans and packed stadiums

    Votes: 19 22.6%

  • The 2020 college football season will be played on the field, but with no fans in attendance

    Votes: 19 22.6%

  • The 2020 college football season will be played but only after players & attendees get temps checked

    Votes: 9 10.7%

  • There will not be a 2020 college football season

    Votes: 37 44.0%
  • Total voters
    84
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What do you predict will happen to the 2020 college football season?
 

This may be the time that a lot of colleges drop football completely. It's an expensive sport, and without games there's very little revenue.

On a related note, does anyone know if the B1G television revenue is a guaranteed contract? If there is no season, does the B1G still get paid for broadcast rights?
 

I don't know.

I'm kinda averse to bold predictions, as there is a sort of "prediction psychosis" out there on the internet where folks predict things and then wave it around that they were right about X, Y, or Z and seem to use that to bolster other ideas, but if you look at it .... it wasn't from any knowledge or etc, they just happened to be the stopped clock or predict the obvious or what might be more of a 50/50.... or often they predicted something when it was on the cusp of being the most obvious thing.

Anyway with that in mind I'll make a prediction ;)

By football season the healthcare system will be passed the curve and it will be a "Take your chances folks." system.... so they play it, maybe with some restrictions, maybe none.


If they do limit attendance it should totally be based on gopher score... not because I have a high score or anything ...
 

Depending on how far the control of this virus goes by August, there could be, in my opinion, a limited season. If they chose to hold the games attendance could be restricted. They could ban anyone over sixty (that includes me) and those with health issues. For others it would be their choice to take the risk. If testing is far greater than it is now that could eliminate those who could spread the disease if they were required to stay home. Crowds would be small but TV revenue could stay in tact. As for stadium employees ticket takers and security would be necessary, but concessions could be eliminated. Cleaning people could do their thing after the game. Whether or not the students are back on campus would be another factor. Keeping the players safe would be problematic, but one thing that could help would be to dress only a minimum of players that would be needed and socially distance the rest. I could see practices being more of a problem that the games. Sooner or later the economy needs to jump started.
 

GO4FAN65 said:
Depending on how far the control of this virus goes by August, there could be, in my opinion, a limited season. If they chose to hold the games attendance could be restricted. They could ban anyone over sixty (that includes me) and those with health issues. For others it would be their choice to take the risk. If testing is far greater than it is now that could eliminate those who could spread the disease if they were required to stay home. Crowds would be small but TV revenue could stay in tact. As for stadium employees ticket takers and security would be necessary, but concessions could be eliminated. Cleaning people could do their thing after the game. Whether or not the students are back on campus would be another factor. Keeping the players safe would be problematic, but one thing that could help would be to dress only a minimum of players that would be needed and socially distance the rest. I could see practices being more of a problem that the games. Sooner or later the economy needs to jump started.
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Smaller crowds would actually be good for the TV networks, right? (more people at home watching the games)
 


I said "no fans" because the real money is in TV for the P5 schools, especially the Big Ten and SEC. If they can make the games happen with no fans or socially distanced crowds (and they will have the rapid testing to be able to by fall) they they will happen. The consequences on whole athletic programs of a canceled football season are too great.

There's a chance CFB/NFL is the nation's victory parade after a brutal spring and summer eventually bringing COVID to heel. Packed stadiums. With a wary populace and the history of two-wave epidemics like this, I doubt it. No fans, games on TV seems like the safe toe back in the water.
 

Livingat45north said:
This may be the time that a lot of colleges drop football completely. It's an expensive sport, and without games there's very little revenue.

On a related note, does anyone know if the B1G television revenue is a guaranteed contract? If there is no season, does the B1G still get paid for broadcast rights?
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I believe the Big Ten owns BTN (in partnership with Fox Sports). Therefore the conference eats its shortfalls in ad revenue and such. I'm not sure how long their carriage contracts run with cable providers, and what provisions there are for a massive drop in ratings due to no games.
 


If they cancel football season many teams from smaller schools will never come back.
 



GoldenRodents said:
If they cancel football season many teams from smaller schools will never come back.
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Football teams might stick around if they can in the future get paydays from P5 teams.

But their other programs that rely on those paydays ... maybe not.

Certainly some refocusing of programs maybe.
 


The announcement from the U this morning, a booming punt of eight weeks, clearly indicates they have no idea where they will be five months from now. If they don't know, I don't know.
 

fmlizard said:
I believe the Big Ten owns BTN (in partnership with Fox Sports). Therefore the conference eats its shortfalls in ad revenue and such. I'm not sure how long their carriage contracts run with cable providers, and what provisions there are for a massive drop in ratings due to no games.
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Fox owns 51% of BTN, B1G owns 49%. But their TV coverage is also through ESPN/ABC. I'm sure they will get paid if there are games (fans or not), but I would guarantee they get nothing if there aren't games. I'm sure I read that CBS/TNT didn't have to pay the NCAA for the tourney since it didn't happen.
 



Lakeville Goldy said:
Fox owns 51% of BTN, B1G owns 49%. But their TV coverage is also through ESPN/ABC. I'm sure they will get paid if there are games (fans or not), but I would guarantee they get nothing if there aren't games. I'm sure I read that CBS/TNT didn't have to pay the NCAA for the tourney since it didn't happen.
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The NCAA apparently had an emergency insurance plan, that will pay out a fraction of the lost revenue.

But like you say, I would not be surprised at all if there are "act of god" terms in the TV contracts such that the TV networks won't have to pay a dime, if there are no games.
 

Wild guess, but based on what I know right now, I think there won't be a season. I think that because I don't think the NFL is going to have a season. If they cancel then I think that college football will be pressed to cancel as well.
 

Lakeville Goldy said:
Fox owns 51% of BTN, B1G owns 49%. But their TV coverage is also through ESPN/ABC. I'm sure they will get paid if there are games (fans or not), but I would guarantee they get nothing if there aren't games. I'm sure I read that CBS/TNT didn't have to pay the NCAA for the tourney since it didn't happen.
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Is that just a guess on your part, or are you in the know on the contact details? Whatever the contract stipulates may be a big driver in whether or not there are games. If ESPN/ABC/NBC/CBS/FOX all have to pay for the rights to games no matter what, that makes it much easier on ADs and NCAA to cancel the season -- if not, then either the games have to be played or a lot of ADs will have to cut sports on their campuses. Football will be the big loser in that equation, as it's by far the most expensive sport to field. I'm also guessing a lot of ADs have wanted to cut football for sometime, but alumni would riot. This may be the "never let a good crisis go to waste" moment for ADs that want to make big changes. If over the past decade football has been a revenue loser for a college, now is the time they can cut the program.
 

hello-world said:
Wild guess, but based on what I know right now, I think there won't be a season. I think that because I don't think the NFL is going to have a season. If they cancel then I think that college football will be pressed to cancel as well.
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My 74 years on planet earth strongly suggests to me that money talks. There will be a Big Ten season. The interest on the bonds will still be due, Fleck and hundreds of others at the U still get paid, etc. multiply that by the hundred plus schools and tens of thousands of TV and media employees. It will get done.
 


Livingat45north said:
Is that just a guess on your part, or are you in the know on the contact details? Whatever the contract stipulates may be a big driver in whether or not there are games. If ESPN/ABC/NBC/CBS/FOX all have to pay for the rights to games no matter what, that makes it much easier on ADs and NCAA to cancel the season -- if not, then either the games have to be played or a lot of ADs will have to cut sports on their campuses. Football will be the big loser in that equation, as it's by far the most expensive sport to field. I'm also guessing a lot of ADs have wanted to cut football for sometime, but alumni would riot. This may be the "never let a good crisis go to waste" moment for ADs that want to make big changes. If over the past decade football has been a revenue loser for a college, now is the time they can cut the program.
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I don't think you're correct about ADs wanting to cut football. If they lose football then they're not managing $100 million businesses. That means they can no longer justify 7 figure salaries.

ADs have every incentive to keep football and make sure that it returns healthier than ever.

If the football season gets cancelled then they are going to dig through every single expense to find things that they can cut. Title 9 requires them to keep as many female athletes as male athletes (and presumably vice versa) so many of those sports will be protected.

I don't think that they'll do this, but if I was advising the athletic department then the first sport I would put on the chopping block is hockey. It's expensive, trending the wrong direction, and it's redundant as a development league.

However, I would be very concerned if I was working for the athletic department right now. Support functions such as cheer squad will probably be the first thing to go. Then it will be extraneous player benefits such as training table.

Three step process here should be looking at financial statements assuming everything is shutdown for a year, figuring out how to replace as much of that revenue as possible (read: very quietly and discreetly asking for a low-interest loan from the state), and looking at extraneous costs that can be taken out for 9 months to keep the department functioning.

If I were in their shoes then I would also be reaching out to large pension funds to see if anyone is still making private loans to universities. Those were taking off before the crisis hit, and I don't think the long-term credit outlook on major academic institutions has changed. I would probably do that even before reaching out to the state.

This equation changes for the G5 leagues which presumably don't make as much money off of their football programs, but in the B1G, football will be protected at every school.
 
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I think it's ultimately a question of liability.

If games are played - with fans in the stands or not - and someone gets exposed to covid-19, the line of lawyers waiting to file lawsuits will stretch from here to Mars.

the NCAA and the major conferences are not going to play games unless they are VERY sure that there is no significant risk to the players. and they will not let fans in the stands unless they are ABSOLUTELY
sure there is no potential liability.

I suppose you could ask fans to sign a waiver that they waive all right to sue if they are exposed, but who would sign that waiver?

Revenue is one thing - lawsuits are something else. One person gets covid-19 at a game and dies, and goodbye college football. (granted, proving they were exposed at the game may be problematic).
 

Livingat45north said:
Is that just a guess on your part, or are you in the know on the contact details? Whatever the contract stipulates may be a big driver in whether or not there are games. If ESPN/ABC/NBC/CBS/FOX all have to pay for the rights to games no matter what, that makes it much easier on ADs and NCAA to cancel the season -- if not, then either the games have to be played or a lot of ADs will have to cut sports on their campuses. Football will be the big loser in that equation, as it's by far the most expensive sport to field. I'm also guessing a lot of ADs have wanted to cut football for sometime, but alumni would riot. This may be the "never let a good crisis go to waste" moment for ADs that want to make big changes. If over the past decade football has been a revenue loser for a college, now is the time they can cut the program.
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Why does the Big Ten give us 54 million dollars each and every year? Is it because they like our swim team or is it that Women's Soccer is so hot on TV? People post the weirest stuff: football loses money at the U. No, it does not.
 

One would certainly think college football will happen if at all possible because of money and I’m assuming the players are clamoring to play.
I don’t think games with fans seems likely.
Classes can be online.
Players would be constantly tested, quarantined and culture washed that one guy ventures out it crashes us all.

At what point to players quit school? Without football their lives are in chaos. An entire year without being able to gather, practice, bond etc is going to make it tough to get the band back together in many places. PJ would be one of the best at holding it all together but very hard to survive 12 months of this for anybody.
People will need some hope. Games on TV will provide that.
 

Nobody will set foot on campus until the end of December so there will be no football this year. Menards, Home depot, all grocery stores are packed as well as other "essential businesses". Many people think this is a holiday. Family get together's, watching the grand kids....driveway bonfires with the neighbors.....Guys having happy hour Friday, moving into the garage and ultimately into the house....I see this everyday. With this lack of adhering to "stay at home", we will have another peak early fall. No mention of the people that think this is all fake news.
 

gopherjay said:
Nobody will set foot on campus until the end of December so there will be no football this year. Menards, Home depot, all grocery stores are packed as well as other "essential businesses". Many people think this is a holiday. Family get together's, watching the grand kids....driveway bonfires with the neighbors.....Guys having happy hour Friday, moving into the garage and ultimately into the house....I see this everyday. With this lack of adhering to "stay at home", we will have another peak early fall. No mention of the people that think this is all fake news.
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Fall? I would say pretty much within 14 days of calling off social distancing, you could see cases start right back rising up. Depends on the answer to a fundamental question: what percentage of Americans will have had the virus in their bodies, and thus aren’t good candidates to be hosts for the next wave? I don’t think anyone can tell that right now.
 

Veritas said:
The announcement from the U this morning, a booming punt of eight weeks, clearly indicates they have no idea where they will be five months from now. If they don't know, I don't know.
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This is the only thing that can be predicted at this point.
It is completely dependent on unpredictable future circumstances
 



Might be unlikely to expect that when the season starts the NCAA will even have total control over making these calls. There may still be governmental restrictions on groupings of a certain size, more likely assuring at the least that if it is played, there won't be fans in the stands.

I'm generally optimistic, but i expect most large gatherings will be predominantly shut down until the very end of 2020 or early 2021.
 
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I think people are thinking that everything stops until disease goes away. Unlikely disease goes away in next year and a half.

Right now is about balancing peak vs medical capacity.

Once enough hospital capacity gets built up combined with enough people already being sick and recovered where the system won’t get swamped...everything will open up again even though some will still get sick and die.

They aren’t keeping the economy closed for a year and a half.
 

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