What are the odds everyone comes back next year?

Odds on all rotation players returning

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One issue on Christie that no one has mentioned… if he doesn’t go pro…he may seek a NIL deal elsewhere purely based on another aweful non-conference SOS. Maybe he views a transfer to a big time program, which plays prime-time non-conference games as a way to elevate his draft stock…

Another reason for gophers to have a better non-conference schedule. Players want to play against good teams, not sisters-of-the-poor on a nightly basis.
 

I think you really just need to keep the 4 core guys below and we're looking at an NCAA level team (At least expectation-wise):

Garcia (50/50)
Payne
Christie
Hawkins

Nice to have and don't think they'll leave:

Fox (Guy likes basketball too much, he's coming back)
Carrington
Mitchell

Maybe Gone:

Betts (Would bet he stays and gets in the fold next year)
JOJ (Most Likely to go IMO)
Keinys (Long way for him to see the floor)

Likely Gone:

Ihnen

*If we keep that Top 7 group together, would be fantastic.
 

Holy Man said:
I'm with you on this. No indication that he is real flight risk and he certainly has little to no chance of being drafted. Our discussion on Sunday had the smartest one in our cluster suggesting that Garcia's skill set is the difference between us being competitive and not so much. Every team needs a big that can hit the three, and go underneath. Without it, teams have a lot more freedom defensively against us.
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And what’s not being talked about much is he’s been really good defensively lately. His help & recover defense has been fantastic.
 

SelectionSunday said:
And what’s not being talked about much is he’s been really good defensively lately. His help & recover defense has been fantastic.
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Agreed. Unfortunately he is probably the most likely to leave as well as the hardest to replace. We become razor thin in the front court if either Payne or Garcia leave. #1 priority for the portal should be a proven 4/5.
 

Gold Vision said:
Agreed. Unfortunately he is probably the most likely to leave as well as the hardest to replace. We become razor thin in the front court if either Payne or Garcia leave. #1 priority for the portal should be a proven 4/5.
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Amen, brother. Even if both stay. Fox is proving himself, but his injury history will limit his minutes and we need another.
 


Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
One issue on Christie that no one has mentioned… if he doesn’t go pro…he may seek a NIL deal elsewhere purely based on another aweful non-conference SOS. Maybe he views a transfer to a big time program, which plays prime-time non-conference games as a way to elevate his draft stock…

Another reason for gophers to have a better non-conference schedule. Players want to play against good teams, not sisters-of-the-poor on a nightly basis.
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Come on man.....really? Impossible to know what a player might decide to do in this current landscape but he isn't going to leave purely because of the non-conf SOS. And even suggesting that will be the basis for his decision next year is just foolish.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Come on man.....really? Impossible to know what a player might decide to do in this current landscape but he isn't going to leave purely because of the non-conf SOS. And even suggesting that will be the basis for his decision next year is just foolish.
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It’s one of a litany of reasons that adds up to why he could go.

You think if an Arizona or other blue blood came in with a good NIL package, talked about the B12 (next year), number of guards drafted on an annual basis, recent program history (with draft / and ncaa tourney) and a very robust SOS in which he will play the best of the best combined with many nationally televised games …

The fact the gophers play no one for 13 games a year, when a player who may want to go to the pros could be playing against much better competition…that needs to be weighed.
 


Doogie speculates that Christie will at least "test the draft waters." He he stays in that would suck and severely dim the optimism for next year.
 



Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
It’s one of a litany of reasons that adds up to why he could go.

You think if an Arizona or other blue blood came in with a good NIL package, talked about the B12 (next year), number of guards drafted on an annual basis, recent program history (with draft / and ncaa tourney) and a very robust SOS in which he will play the best of the best combined with many nationally televised games …

The fact the gophers play no one for 13 games a year, when a player who may want to go to the pros could be playing against much better competition…that needs to be weighed.
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One year of playing a non con schedule is now an every year thing? Dial it back.
 

Garcia stays for his family…:the reason he came here in the first place.
 


howeda7 said:
Doogie speculates that Christie will at least "test the draft waters." He he stays in that would suck and severely dim the optimism for next year.
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Who cares what Doogie thinks?
 




Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
One issue on Christie that no one has mentioned… if he doesn’t go pro…he may seek a NIL deal elsewhere purely based on another aweful non-conference SOS. Maybe he views a transfer to a big time program, which plays prime-time non-conference games as a way to elevate his draft stock…

Another reason for gophers to have a better non-conference schedule. Players want to play against good teams, not sisters-of-the-poor on a nightly basis.
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Most teams (including the top teams) have about 2 tough non-conference games.

Like I say, I strongly disagree with obsessing over computer rankings.
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
It’s one of a litany of reasons that adds up to why he could go.

You think if an Arizona or other blue blood came in with a good NIL package, talked about the B12 (next year), number of guards drafted on an annual basis, recent program history (with draft / and ncaa tourney) and a very robust SOS in which he will play the best of the best combined with many nationally televised games …

The fact the gophers play no one for 13 games a year, when a player who may want to go to the pros could be playing against much better competition…that needs to be weighed.
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In regards to players moving, anything is possible. But you specifically said Christie would transfer purely (your word) because of our non-conf SOS and that is BS. Plus, we have no clue what the non-conf schedule is going to look like in 24-25.

In the end it will all come down to what Cam wants to do. He had more prestigious offers but chose to come here. All we can do as fans is hope that if he doesn't elect to go pro like his brother after one season, that he decides to continue his college career here where he will have a coaching staff he has been with and a starting position in one of the premier conferences in college athletics.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
Most teams (including the top teams) have about 2 tough non-conference games.
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Defining "tough non-conference games" as teams currently in the NET top 75 (Quads 1 & 2), I did a little research. Here's what my I came up with.

Of the 80 Power 6 basketball programs, 55 (68.8%) have played 3 or more non-conference opponents with a NET currently in the top 75. These are the 25 that have played 2 or less:

2 -- BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Louisville, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Seton Hall, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Washington State

1 -- Georgetown, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Oregon, Pitt, Stanford, UCF

The average number of tough non-conference games among the 80 Power 6 programs is 3.337, well above 2.

With regards to ". ... (including the top teams) have about 2 tough non-conference games", I did a sampling of some teams that most would consider top teams/programs current day and/or over the last 25 years, which includes every program that has won a national title since 2000. Here's that sampling:

7 -- Alabama, Purdue

6 -- Arizona, Michigan State, Wisconsin

5 -- Baylor, Florida, Marquette, North Carolina, Tennessee, UCLA

4 -- Creighton, Houston, Kansas, UConn

3 -- Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse, Villanova, Virginia

2 -- Louisville

Those 21 "top teams" this season are averaging 4.523 tough non-conference games, well over "about 2".
 
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there was an interview with Fox where he was asked about coming back for another year. according to the article, Fox smiled/laughed and said he didn't know if his knees could handle another season. If I had to bet, I don't expect Fox back.

It's really all down to Garcia and Christie. and that depends on how they are evaluated by the NBA. honestly, if they try to go pro, I could see both of them winding up in the G League next year.

Luka Garza was a stud in college and he can't sniff the court in the NBA.
 

As I've said, this is a fruitless task to try and predict. The one thing I'll say for Garcia, he 100% could make a good living playing bball overseas, but that isn't for everyone either. I know I wouldn't want to live in Estonia or Latvia or China during my early 20s.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
there was an interview with Fox where he was asked about coming back for another year. according to the article, Fox smiled/laughed and said he didn't know if his knees could handle another season. If I had to bet, I don't expect Fox back.
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I know what interview you are talking about and it is tough to say just how serious he was about those comments. I think if he can physically do it he comes back for sure to try and get one more year in before having to move on with real life.

Although you never know, maybe a guy like Fox can find a role on some team overseas. I could picture him bumming around Europe playing basketball :)
 

Garcia-Returns
Payne--Returns
Christie--Returns
Fox--Returns
Carrington--Returns
Hawkins--Returns
Mitchell--Returns
BETTS--Transfers
READER--Transfers to St. Thomas
JOJ--Transfers--Mid Major
Ihnen--Transfers//Retires
 

Need to find another big and another wing type who can shoot in the portal
 

TD12 said:
Garcia-Returns
Payne--Returns
Christie--Returns
Fox--Returns
Carrington--Returns
Hawkins--Returns
Mitchell--Returns
BETTS--Transfers
READER--Transfers to St. Thomas
JOJ--Transfers--Mid Major
Ihnen--Transfers//Retires
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I could see something like this playing out. JOJ will be an interesting one to watch if all the guys currently in front of him elect to come back.

If/When the lightbulb goes on for him he could be an absolute beast with how explosive he is.

Overall though that would leave a strong foundation to work around for 24-25. Asuma should be able to see some minutes in a backup point guard role, and you are not far off from have a really nice team. Find the right player or 2 in the portal and let's go.
 


Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
One issue on Christie that no one has mentioned… if he doesn’t go pro…he may seek a NIL deal elsewhere purely based on another aweful non-conference SOS. Maybe he views a transfer to a big time program, which plays prime-time non-conference games as a way to elevate his draft stock…

Another reason for gophers to have a better non-conference schedule. Players want to play against good teams, not sisters-of-the-poor on a nightly basis.
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Is the non conference schedule set for next year?
 

Otis said:
The way I see it by individual:

Garcia- 100% if he doesn’t go pro. All depends on his stock and how much NIL he gets.

Hawkins/Mitchell - 100% they would have to sit out and they are having great seasons!

Payne -he could get some BB offers and no sit-out. No NBA chance. I’d say, 80%.

Jon and Carrington - 90% they could bolt with no wait all depends on if they could get more run elsewhere.

Christie - 50% he could do anything and probably could follow his bro and sneak into the first round.
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Christie isn’t close to being a first round pick at this point, based on the following - Max was a much higher ranked recruit than Cam. 5 star who was the 2nd ranked SG and 22nd player in his class - this is yet another 🍎 & 🍊comparison. Cam’s also not listed byNBA draft.net, which lists 4 or 5 Kentucky Wildcat Freshmen as likely first round picks, nor is Cam listed in the second round either.

In addition to the aforementioned top level freshman recruits, there are a ton of international guards/wings. He’s a year or two away from being a serious threat to declare for the draft.



Otis said:
Fox - 100%

The rest aren’t worth worrying.
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Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
One issue on Christie that no one has mentioned… if he doesn’t go pro…he may seek a NIL deal elsewhere purely based on another aweful non-conference SOS. Maybe he views a transfer to a big time program, which plays prime-time non-conference games as a way to elevate his draft stock…
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Why didn’t he do this out of HS then?

His offer list included -

Virginia
Purdue
Iowa State
Sparty
Ohio State
Iowa
USC


Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
Another reason for gophers to have a better non-conference schedule. Players want to play against good teams, not sisters-of-the-poor on a nightly basis.
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TD12 said:
Garcia-Returns
Payne--Returns
Christie--Returns
Fox--Returns
Carrington--Returns
Hawkins--Returns
Mitchell--Returns
BETTS--Transfers
READER--Transfers to St. Thomas
JOJ--Transfers--Mid Major
Ihnen--Transfers//Retires
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That's a somewhat plausible forecast. It would give us up to four transfers to bring in. The odds of the replacements improving the team after the departures is very high.

I hope JOJ stays. Only the coaches and other players know if Betts would be a big loss.
 


One more year, please guys, Live the dream. Get that year on your memories list. Unfinished business. The incomparable college Tournament excitement.
 

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