What are the odds everyone comes back next year?

Odds on all rotation players returning


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Otis

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This team seems to be pretty tight and get along together, so what are the chances they all (eligible) come back?

First, who is most likely to bolt?

Garcia - I don’t see much smoke for him to go into the draft but you just never know. Also, how much NIL does he get?

Christie - may have more NBA interest than any other Gopher. Will he pull a Max or will we raise enough NIL for him to stay? And what Blue Bloods come after him?

The Sophmores - no smoke for any of them draft wise. Payne could see some NIL interest.

Hawkins/Mitchell - they would have to sit out if they transfer do this should be low odds.

Fox/Ihnen - I would like to see Fox return and Ihnen hang it up. No idea what their plan is.

Betts - odds on transfer candidate. No room in front of him despite his insane practice defensive capabilities.

KK - who knows? Could be this years Thiem.

I don’t know who else is even on the roster and I know there are 2 guys coming in. Lumbering Jack is toast.

So what you think?
 

I accidentally hit 80 and should have been 50.

Little chance Ihnen returns. Agree on Betts. Fox probably yes.

We must assume at least one important guy we all want back won’t return just because we are Minnesota.
 

I accidentally hit 80 and should have been 50.

Little chance Ihnen returns. Agree on Betts. Fox probably yes.

We must assume at least one important guy we all want back won’t return just because we are Minnesota
 

Things to think about. I said less than 10% to everyone that can come back.

One time transfer rule: What is it? Is it enforced? that plays into Mitchell and Hawkins options.
Betts: Two years without seeing the floor. What are his options?
Garcia: Potential to move on if comfortable with his academic progress and looking to play professionally
Fox: Does he desire to play another year?
Ihnen: Does he desire another year?
Christie: Is he comfortable with his progress and growth or looking for something different and options?
Keinys: Late addition and does he stick around?
Ola-Joseph and Carrington: both have had some ups and downs.
Payne to me seems like the only 100% I will be back guy, but who knows.

This team really seems close and I want to believe that most will be back.
 



They are college kids, so who really know, right? Would guess Ihnen might be ready to hang it up, and Betts transfers down.
 

There is always going to be turnover and the poll says "everyone" returns, therefore I went with below 10%.
Will our walk ons return? Will those who came, but haven't shown enough progress to get playing time come back to sit another season? It's highly doubtful, despite the general perception that the team is a cohesive group.
 

The way I see it by individual:

Garcia- 100% if he doesn’t go pro. All depends on his stock and how much NIL he gets.

Hawkins/Mitchell - 100% they would have to sit out and they are having great seasons!

Payne -he could get some BB offers and no sit-out. No NBA chance. I’d say, 80%.

Jon and Carrington - 90% they could bolt with no wait all depends on if they could get more run elsewhere.

Christie - 50% he could do anything and probably could follow his bro and sneak into the first round.

Fox - 100%

The rest aren’t worth worrying.
 

There is always going to be turnover and the poll says "everyone" returns, therefore I went with below 10%.
Will our walk ons return? Will those who came, but haven't shown enough progress to get playing time come back to sit another season? It's highly doubtful, despite the general perception that the team is a cohesive group.
I meant just the guys who get minutes, and someone gets Jack’s next year! Lol
 



There is always going to be turnover and the poll says "everyone" returns, therefore I went with below 10%.

Exactly. Given that the word "everyone" was in the question, the probability has to be considered very low. In fact, since Wilson can't play another year, the probability is 0.
 

I said 20% but even that is pretty optimistic. I think there's a good chance most return though.
 


Most of these kids have been through the crap, and finally getting the program back to some life. I would think they would want to be part of making the change especially with all the work they put in.
This hits it for me. Why would you work so hard and then walk away and start over at another school unless you have a guarantee? We all know there are no guarantees.
 



"Everyone"? Like 2%. With 11 eligible returning players in the portal era, it's not going to happen.

I really only care about the top 8 guys. Losing Christie or Payne would be brutal. Garcia leaving would suck but not be shocking. Fox is 50/50, but I hope he comes back.

If guys like Betts and Keinys leave to go down a level and get playing time, it's to be expected and probably not a bad thing.
 


Just a gut feeling, but other than Fox and Ihnen, I think everyone who played meaningful minutes will stay.
 

I think that the team seems tight and will stay together. However, the odds that no one leaves are crazy long.
 

Out of the top 9
Garcia-gone
Hawkins-back
Mitchell-back
Christie-back
Payne-back
Ola-Joseph-possibly gone
Carrington-back
Fox-possibly gone
Ihnen-back

Betts-possibly gone
Keinys-back
Reader-back just because he won’t have to put up with Wilson doing the bow and arrow stuff on the bench next year

(really don’t have a clue)
 

I misread the poll thinking it was asking % of players come back. I selected 70%.

I'd bet about 4 players leave the team either for professional ambitions (Garcia) or wanting to play more (Ihnen, Betts).
 

Out of the top 9
Garcia-gone
Hawkins-back
Mitchell-back
Christie-back
Payne-back
Ola-Joseph-possibly gone
Carrington-back
Fox-possibly gone
Ihnen-back

Betts-possibly gone
Keinys-back
Reader-back just because he won’t have to put up with Wilson doing the bow and arrow stuff on the bench next year

(really don’t have a clue)
My only disagreement is Ihnen. He's gone either by his own choice or the programs decision. He's a grown up. He has to have a degree. And the way pros work in Europe and elsewhere, he could probably get paid something, if not a lot, to play lower level international ball.

The poor guy just looks so uncomfortable out there. I feel sorry for him.
 

Garcia's decision loooms LARGE.

Nothing to base it on, but I have a good vibe. I think he's coming back (with a sweet NIL deal, somehow) in part for "legacy" purposes. He'll want to be the guy that led the way getting the program back on its feet (NCAA tourney). Only way I don't see him coming back is if Gophers somehow get to the NCAA this season, or if he's privvy to knowing a lot of key guys intend to test free agency.
 


Garcia's decision loooms LARGE.

Nothing to base it on, but I have a good vibe. I think he's coming back (with a sweet NIL deal, somehow) in part for "legacy" purposes. He'll want to be the guy that led the way getting the program back on its feet (NCAA tourney). Only way I don't see him coming back is if Gophers somehow get to the NCAA this season, unless of course if he's privvy to a lot of key guys intending to test free agency.
I'm with you on this. No indication that he is real flight risk and he certainly has little to no chance of being drafted. Our discussion on Sunday had the smartest one in our cluster suggesting that Garcia's skill set is the difference between us being competitive and not so much. Every team needs a big that can hit the three, and go underneath. Without it, teams have a lot more freedom defensively against us.
 

My only disagreement is Ihnen. He's gone either by his own choice or the programs decision. He's a grown up. He has to have a degree. And the way pros work in Europe and elsewhere, he could probably get paid something, if not a lot, to play lower level international ball.

The poor guy just looks so uncomfortable out there. I feel sorry for him.
I was thinking he might want to stay in the states one more year.
 


I'm with you on this. No indication that he is real flight risk and he certainly has little to no chance of being drafted. Our discussion on Sunday had the smartest one in our cluster suggesting that Garcia's skill set is the difference between us being competitive and not so much. Every team needs a big that can hit the three, and go underneath. Without it, teams have a lot more freedom defensively against us.

I also think there is a fair chance that he is back.

Let's look at his career prior to this year:

Year 1 - Marquette; losing season
Year 2 - North Carolina; left the team midseason
Year 3- Here; no need to rehash how that went
Year 4 - Here; unless we blow it, should be in the NIT and have a chance to make some noise there

So, in terms of team performance, his career hasn't been so successful. Yes, UNC finished as the national runner up but he wasn't around for that, played only half of the season, and wasn't featured like he is here. This should be his greatest season to date and I think things could be even better for him next year.
 

Every team needs a big that can hit the three, and go underneath. Without it, teams have a lot more freedom defensively against us.

He's almost like the team's safety valve when the team goes deep in the shot clock and no good opportunities are happening. That alone makes him very valuable.
 

This hits it for me. Why would you work so hard and then walk away and start over at another school unless you have a guarantee? We all know there are no guarantees.
You have to be careful with this line of thinking, because you are thinking like an adult and these guys definitely don't in many cases,

My gut feeling is that if they don't go pro that both Garcia and Christie come back.

Hopefully Mitchell and Hawkins are having fun playing together and neither tries to find a way to transfer again. I know the assumption is they would have to sit out but honestly at this point who knows what if any transfer rules still exist.

Probably foolish to feel confident about anything but I just don't see Payne leaving.

Carrington and JOJ also probably stay but would not be totally shocked to see one of them hit the portal.

Fox and Ihnen - Gut feeling is Fox comes back and Ihnen does not.

Betts - wild card. He is still just the age of a true freshman even though he has been in college now for 2 seasons. Wouldn't shock me to see him transfer out after this year but he also might be on the same page with the coaches and working towards a bigger role down the line.

The rest really are non factors overall in terms of success in 24-25. Here's hoping we keep the majority of the key guys the way football did and they are able to keep building on what has become a promising season. If they stay together and the coaches add some good pieces either through the incoming freshman or the portal, this team has a chance to be really good next year.
 

Garcia gets NIL now, is there any chance he could out earn an overseas gig staying for next year?
 

Garcia gets NIL now, is there any chance he could out earn an overseas gig staying for next year?
Who knows.....such is the mystery of this current pay for play system. No clue how much any of these guys are actually making.
 




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