The national title prop will correlate with Big Ten West odds. Wisconsin will have much shorter odds than us there as well.
Vegas is in it to make money which is why they base their bets mostly in predictive models and simulations.
You’ve got an angle here. Hammer the Gophers to win the West and bet the under on the Badgers’ win total.
If you think that national title disparity is just because some Yahoos are betting on Wisconsin, I don’t think you understand how Vegas works. Computer models would bankrupt them.
The house sets odds based on 3 things:
1) what they think will happen
2) where bets are falling
3) where they think future bets will fall
A lot of lines, over unders for seasons is risk mitigation.
Say Vegas metrics think Michigan will win 8 games next year. That doesn’t mean they set the over under at 8.5 because people would hammer the over and they would be at risk even if they think they’re right. They may bump that to 9.5 or 10.5 to give themselves a cushion based on where they think bets will fall. This is also why lines move.
If one is actually trying to make money gambling, betting season win totals is a horrible way to go about it. Why would you bet something with the most possible variables? Yes I could have made a killing betting on Nebraska unders the past few years. Not because I’m smarter than Vegas but because I’m smarter than Nebraska fans pounding the over regardless of what it is.
If I was going to bet money on the season I’d put money on the gophers to win the big ten west. Because I think it’s a greater than 1% chance of happening. I wouldn’t pick to win the national title or big ten title because I think it’s less than 1%. And I would only bet on the gophers because it’s just for the fun, not to win money. If I was trying to make money gambling I would target games that have bad lines or bad over unders in my opinion. Some weeks that means I’d bet 4-6 games. Other weeks I’d bet zero. I would probably bet some money lines in 50/50 games I’m confident about. When I win, it isn’t because I knew more than Vegas…it’s because I thought the opposite of other gamblers and the volume other gamblers caused the line to move or be set in the direction I wanted it to by a point or two.