Way-too-early look at next year's Big Ten football power rankings (10. Minnesota)

RickDornsby

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I 100% trust Vegas to make money.
Are you implying they’re doing this just because they think it’ll draw more people to bet on Wisconsin?

To a small degree this can happen, but the futures bet is just a simulation based on predictive metrics. Obviously a bit more fluky during the off-season. They think Wisconsin will be better or you and everyone else can hammer every prop, total, etc and make money betting Wisconsin to finish worse than Minnesota.

Here’s the thing: a large reason for the title odds difference is the schedule. We dodged playing multiple B10 East powerhouses in a season + play cupcakes in noncon under Fleck. Not the case this year.
 

Some guy

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Yes it is called recruits and use of the portal.
It’s not even that. It’s that in most seasons only about 10 plays separate teams 4-10

4-10 this year:
4. Purdue 6-3
5. Illinois 5-4
6. Iowa 5-4
7. Minnesota 5-4
8. Wisconsin 4-5
9. Maryland 4-5
10. Michigan state 3-6
 

Bob_Loblaw

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Yea I remember those days. Honestly feels like us Minnesota fans are still living in them....meanwhile JUST THIS WEEK, Wisconsin landed a top 50 WR from USC (over Georgia and ND), another 4 star QB (make that 4 of 'em since Fickell joined), an All-American kicker and a first team all conference lineman.....must be nice being a Wisconsin fan.

But honestly who cares, PJ Fleck has BIG aspirations to someday win the West and if we row the boat hard enough we might actually do it sometime in the next 20 years.

https://247sports.com/Article/Former-USC-WR-CJ-Williams-is-headed-to-Wisconsin--202789609/

https://theathletic.com/4078355/2023/01/10/wisconsin-football-transfers-locke-pauling-vakos/

https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/20...enfro-from-cincinnati-luke-fickell-phil-longo
We really aren't though because we have the axe so now we get to just giggle at the silly Badger fans who are promising this is their year.

Their fans are getting really pathetic. I've heard rumors that some of them come to Gopher sites and spam their boards with Badger info. The emptiness required in someone's life to make them resort to that level of desperation is actually kind of sad.

Deep down they get it. They have a coach right now that somehow found a way to finish under .500 at Ohio State. That would be difficult to do if you tried.

Oh well, I hope they enjoy mediocrity and I hope those guys who feel the need to pretend to be Gopher fans find some equally obese Badger fan to fall in love, they can get married, and she can stay sober enough during the pregnancy so the little piglets don't turn out as dumb as their old man. You know, a nice little life for a Badger fan.

It is really funny though that they are this pumped up about a coach that somehow found a way to have a losing record in the Big 10.
 

Some guy

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Are you implying they’re doing this just because they think it’ll draw more people to bet on Wisconsin?

To a small degree this can happen, but the futures bet is just a simulation based on predictive metrics. Obviously a bit more fluky during the off-season. They think Wisconsin will be better or you and everyone else can hammer every prop, total, etc and make money betting Wisconsin to finish worse than Minnesota.

Here’s the thing: a large reason for the title odds difference is the schedule. We dodged playing multiple B10 East powerhouses in a season + play cupcakes in noncon under Fleck. Not the case this year.
Both teams have equally close to 0% chance of winning a national title next year. If anyone thinks either Minnesota or Wisconsin is winning a national title next year theyre straight up dumb.



I am not implying they are doing this to get people to bet on Wisconsin at all. It’s the opposite.
More people are betting on Wisconsin causes the odds to do what they’re doing. They’re in it to win money. If they were trying to entice people to bet they would give betters better odds in picking Wisconsin.
 

RickDornsby

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Both teams have equally close to 0% chance of winning a national title next year. If anyone thinks either Minnesota or Wisconsin is winning a national title next year theyre straight up dumb.



I am not implying they are doing this to get people to bet on Wisconsin at all. It’s the opposite.
More people are betting on Wisconsin causes the odds to do what they’re doing. They’re in it to win money. If they were trying to entice people to bet they would give betters better odds in picking Wisconsin.

The national title prop will correlate with Big Ten West odds. Wisconsin will have much shorter odds than us there as well.

Vegas is in it to make money which is why they base their bets mostly in predictive models and simulations.

You’ve got an angle here. Hammer the Gophers to win the West and bet the under on the Badgers’ win total.

If you think that national title disparity is just because some Yahoos are betting on Wisconsin, I don’t think you understand how Vegas works. Computer models would bankrupt them.
 


Some guy

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The national title prop will correlate with Big Ten West odds. Wisconsin will have much shorter odds than us there as well.

Vegas is in it to make money which is why they base their bets mostly in predictive models and simulations.

You’ve got an angle here. Hammer the Gophers to win the West and bet the under on the Badgers’ win total.

If you think that national title disparity is just because some Yahoos are betting on Wisconsin, I don’t think you understand how Vegas works. Computer models would bankrupt them.
The house sets odds based on 3 things:
1) what they think will happen
2) where bets are falling
3) where they think future bets will fall

A lot of lines, over unders for seasons is risk mitigation.
Say Vegas metrics think Michigan will win 8 games next year. That doesn’t mean they set the over under at 8.5 because people would hammer the over and they would be at risk even if they think they’re right. They may bump that to 9.5 or 10.5 to give themselves a cushion based on where they think bets will fall. This is also why lines move.

If one is actually trying to make money gambling, betting season win totals is a horrible way to go about it. Why would you bet something with the most possible variables? Yes I could have made a killing betting on Nebraska unders the past few years. Not because I’m smarter than Vegas but because I’m smarter than Nebraska fans pounding the over regardless of what it is.

If I was going to bet money on the season I’d put money on the gophers to win the big ten west. Because I think it’s a greater than 1% chance of happening. I wouldn’t pick to win the national title or big ten title because I think it’s less than 1%. And I would only bet on the gophers because it’s just for the fun, not to win money. If I was trying to make money gambling I would target games that have bad lines or bad over unders in my opinion. Some weeks that means I’d bet 4-6 games. Other weeks I’d bet zero. I would probably bet some money lines in 50/50 games I’m confident about. When I win, it isn’t because I knew more than Vegas…it’s because I thought the opposite of other gamblers and the volume other gamblers caused the line to move or be set in the direction I wanted it to by a point or two.
 
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RowTheBoatUrah

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We really aren't though because we have the axe so now we get to just giggle at the silly Badger fans who are promising this is their year.

Their fans are getting really pathetic. I've heard rumors that some of them come to Gopher sites and spam their boards with Badger info. The emptiness required in someone's life to make them resort to that level of desperation is actually kind of sad.

Deep down they get it. They have a coach right now that somehow found a way to finish under .500 at Ohio State. That would be difficult to do if you tried.

Oh well, I hope they enjoy mediocrity and I hope those guys who feel the need to pretend to be Gopher fans find some equally obese Badger fan to fall in love, they can get married, and she can stay sober enough during the pregnancy so the little piglets don't turn out as dumb as their old man. You know, a nice little life for a Badger fan.

It is really funny though that they are this pumped up about a coach that somehow found a way to have a losing record in the Big 10.
Oh come on now Bob - we're resorting to personal attacks on me and my family? Or are we doing some projection? I meandered over here during the Luke Fickell hiring to see what our friendly neighbors thought about the hire and I unearthed an absolute treasure trove of delusion and unprompted truly mean-spirited Badger smack talk that was too good not to partake in. This board has become a great source of entertainment for me and the friends I share these engagements with. We take great delight in the delusion of our oldest rival. But to resort to personal attacks, now that's truly empty.
 

RickDornsby

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The house sets odds based on 3 things:
1) what they think will happen
2) where bets are falling
3) where they think future bets will fall

A lot of lines, over unders for seasons is risk mitigation.
Say Vegas metrics think Michigan will win 8 games next year. That doesn’t mean they set the over under at 8.5 because people would hammer the over and they would be at risk even if they think they’re right. They may bump that to 9.5 or 10.5 to give themselves a cushion based on where they think bets will fall. This is also why lines move.

If one is actually trying to make money gambling, betting season win totals is a horrible way to go about it. Why would you bet something with the most possible variables? If I was going to bet money on the season I’d put money on the gophers to win the big ten west. Because I think it’s a greater than 1% chance of happening. I wouldn’t pick to win the national title or big ten title because I think it’s less than 1%. And I would only bet on the gophers because it’s just for the fun, not to win money. If I was trying to make money gambling I would target games that have bad lines or bad over unders in my opinion. Some weeks that means I’d bet 4-6 games. Other weeks I’d bet zero.
You’re right that they cushion the bets a bit on season totals and betting futures is generally stupid, and neither team is winning the title.

But if you think that 3.5x disparity in title odds doesn’t mean something, I don’t know what to tell you.

It implies that their predictive model thinks Wisconsin will be better. It’ll trickle into any other line they offer. It has to. And every game you can bet on early in the season will correlate. Hammer it and make millions, my man. Just bet against Wisconsin every game on the spread.

I wouldn’t bet on the Gophers to win the West because it means we’ll have to probably win at least 6 conference games with @OSU, Michigan, at iowa, MSU, improved Wisconsin and not to mention Illinois/@Purdue/Nebraska/@NW, 2 of those games will probably be tough. Good luck.
 
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Some guy

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You’re right that they cushion the bets a bit on season totals and betting futures is generally stupid, and neither team is winning the title.

But if you think that 3.5x disparity in title odds doesn’t mean something, I don’t know what to tell you.

It implies that their predictive model thinks Wisconsin will be better. It’ll trickle into any other line they offer. It has to. And every game you can bet on early in the season will correlate. Hammer it and make millions, my man.
Well to bet millions you’d have to make millions. And yes, usually the time to bet against overrated teams is early in the season before they are using metrics from the current season

Vegas is currently using a predictive model based on zero game data from next years teams.
 



RickDornsby

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Well to bet millions you’d have to make millions. And yes, usually the time to bet against overrated teams is early in the season before they are using metrics from the current season

Vegas is currently using a predictive model based on zero game data from next years teams.

All true, but I think my main point that may not be reflected in the power rankings is that there is a high likelihood our schedule will be murderers row. At the very least, we can agree on that?
 

Some guy

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All true, but I think my main point that may not be reflected in the power rankings is that there is a high likelihood our schedule will be murderers row. At the very least, we can agree on that?
We are going to play a top 4 ACC team.
A Louisiana team that has the 7th best winning percentage in college football since 2019
MAC East champ
IMO teams #1, #2, and #6 in the east. (Though Michigan state wouldn’t shock me anywhere 4-6)
The whole west (this is equal for everyone in the west)


So yeah thats brutal. Maybe the toughest schedule in the country without looking at all of them.


Only two easy wins all year. Northwestern and Wisconsin.
 

Bob_Loblaw

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Oh come on now Bob - we're resorting to personal attacks on me and my family? Or are we doing some projection? I meandered over here during the Luke Fickell hiring to see what our friendly neighbors thought about the hire and I unearthed an absolute treasure trove of delusion and unprompted truly mean-spirited Badger smack talk that was too good not to partake in. This board has become a great source of entertainment for me and the friends I share these engagements with. We take great delight in the delusion of our oldest rival. But to resort to personal attacks, now that's truly empty.
You come over here as an admitted troll and you're easily offended?

You think I'm projecting? You think I'm trolling Badger boards pretending to be a Badger fan to fill the axe shaped hole in my heart? I was a Gopher fan throughout the entire axe-drought and I never even considered trolling Badger boards. If I was that pathetic I would off of myself, seriously.

As far as delusional fans that you and your loser "friends" find great enjoyment in, welcome to message boards! Do you know how stupid you have to be to be surprised that message boards are full of delusional homers? Get this, I bet the Purdue message boards are full of Purdue homers and some of them are delusional. WILD STUFF HUH?

As far as it being a great source of entertainment for you, I'm sure it is, the kind of loser that I described would take great enjoyment at trolling at your age is exactly what I described. It's okay man, you can always go on a diet and do better in life. I imagine when your personal life turns around, you'll see that doing this stuff is just silly.

TLDR
If you're going to troll, you have to be able to take some insults. When I joked with you back, I didn't know your wife was fat, but I do now.
 

btowngopher

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Yea I remember those days. Honestly feels like us Minnesota fans are still living in them....meanwhile JUST THIS WEEK, Wisconsin landed a top 50 WR from USC (over Georgia and ND), another 4 star QB (make that 4 of 'em since Fickell joined), an All-American kicker and a first team all conference lineman.....must be nice being a Wisconsin fan.

But honestly who cares, PJ Fleck has BIG aspirations to someday win the West and if we row the boat hard enough we might actually do it sometime in the next 20 years.

https://247sports.com/Article/Former-USC-WR-CJ-Williams-is-headed-to-Wisconsin--202789609/

https://theathletic.com/4078355/2023/01/10/wisconsin-football-transfers-locke-pauling-vakos/

https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/20...enfro-from-cincinnati-luke-fickell-phil-longo
All those four star QBs trying to replace a 5 star.
 



btowngopher

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Wisconsin sounds like the Nebraska team we’ve seen overrated every year. They’re supposed to be much improved, but then you look at their roster and notice none of the players have actually performed.
 

RowTheBoatUrah

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You come over here as an admitted troll and you're easily offended?

You think I'm projecting? You think I'm trolling Badger boards pretending to be a Badger fan to fill the axe shaped hole in my heart? I was a Gopher fan throughout the entire axe-drought and I never even considered trolling Badger boards. If I was that pathetic I would off of myself, seriously.

As far as delusional fans that you and your loser "friends" find great enjoyment in, welcome to message boards! Do you know how stupid you have to be to be surprised that message boards are full of delusional homers? Get this, I bet the Purdue message boards are full of Purdue homers and some of them are delusional. WILD STUFF HUH?

As far as it being a great source of entertainment for you, I'm sure it is, the kind of loser that I described would take great enjoyment at trolling at your age is exactly what I described. It's okay man, you can always go on a diet and do better in life. I imagine when your personal life turns around, you'll see that doing this stuff is just silly.

TLDR
If you're going to troll, you have to be able to take some insults. When I joked with you back, I didn't know your wife was fat, but I do now.
Oh shit, hold Bob's beer. He's doubling down! Haha not sensitive my friend - to each their own. Throw your darts. As for the personal stuff - I'm sorry to let you know you're arguing with a pup. As for my personal life, well, I'm not going to get into that because then it would just make me feel mean knowing I'm riling up some geriatric Gopher fan. Godspeed Bob Loblaw
 

Bob_Loblaw

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Oh shit, hold Bob's beer. He's doubling down! Haha not sensitive my friend - to each their own. Throw your darts. As for the personal stuff - I'm sorry to let you know you're arguing with a pup. As for my personal life, well, I'm not going to get into that because then it would just make me feel mean knowing I'm riling up some geriatric Gopher fan. Godspeed Bob Loblaw
Riling me up? You're not riling me up. Did you hear me complaining that you hurt my feelings? I was joking back with you and then your feelings got hurt. You're at a pathetic cross roads in your life where you're offended and whining to a message board THAT YOU TROLLED. That's more pathetic than we originally could have imagined.

I'm 40 years old, so I'm somewhere between a pup and a geriatric.

As far as your personal life, we all know exactly how your personal life must be going. It's why this hurt your feelings so much. Your life isn't going well or you wouldn't be here doing this. You never would have trolled. If, you had a brief moment of depression you did troll, you certainly wouldn't be offended by people responding to your trolling.

You're fat.
You're shocked message boards have homers.
You are a troll yet highly sensitive.
 

Some guy

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Wisconsin sounds like the Nebraska team we’ve seen overrated every year. They’re supposed to be much improved, but then you look at their roster and notice none of the players have actually performed.
Yup. They’re the new Nebraska.
They better win right away or that’ll become the narrative


Power run team with 30 years of history decides to run air raid in the big ten?
 

Rockraven

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Our power ranking will be 3. We finish the regular season with a single loss. Fasten your seat belts. So why not 2? We’re still Minnesota.
 

RowTheBoatUrah

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Riling me up? You're not riling me up. Did you hear me complaining that you hurt my feelings? I was joking back with you and then your feelings got hurt. You're at a pathetic cross roads in your life where you're offended and whining to a message board THAT YOU TROLLED. That's more pathetic than we originally could have imagined.

I'm 40 years old, so I'm somewhere between a pup and a geriatric.

As far as your personal life, we all know exactly how your personal life must be going. It's why this hurt your feelings so much. Your life isn't going well or you wouldn't be here doing this. You never would have trolled. If, you had a brief moment of depression you did troll, you certainly wouldn't be offended by people responding to your trolling.

You're fat.
You're shocked message boards have homers.
You are a troll yet highly sensitive.
Ah - not fat my friend. Not offended (you missed the part where I'm still getting entertainment out of this). And sorry to report, personal life is pretty dope - in fact, as much as I'm enjoying this conversation, I need to close up shop to catch an 8pm show at The Second City. Funny enough, it's called "Great Altercations". Good for those of us with a sense of humor. If you're ever in Chicago you should check it out.
 

Bob_Loblaw

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Ah - not fat my friend. Not offended (you missed the part where I'm still getting entertainment out of this). And sorry to report, personal life is pretty dope - in fact, as much as I'm enjoying this conversation, I need to close up shop to catch an 8pm show at The Second City. Funny enough, it's called "Great Altercations". Good for those of us with a sense of humor. If you're ever in Chicago you should check it out.
I realize you said you're not offended but that was while you were crying out about me insulting you.

As far as not telling us about your personal life, in the last three messages you've said your age, your body type, your personal life is "pretty dope", you told me the city you live and your plans for this evening. You clearly are impact by this little exchange. I don't think you have thick enough skin to be a troll.

Thanks for the heads up, I've heard of it. I hope you have fun and your life improves to a point where you won't even consider trolling.

Just as an FYI - You'll also out grow improv. This isn't just me trolling you back, but improv absolutely sucks also Luke Fickell found a way to finish under .500 at Ohio State. That sucks worse than improv.
 

RowTheBoatUrah

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Hey, we can agree on the Improv - although I do still get a chuckle or two. Have a good one.
 

Wooty_Woot

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We are going to play a top 4 ACC team.
A Louisiana team that has the 7th best winning percentage in college football since 2019
MAC East champ

IMO teams #1, #2, and #6 in the east. (Though Michigan state wouldn’t shock me anywhere 4-6)
The whole west (this is equal for everyone in the west)


So yeah thats brutal. Maybe the toughest schedule in the country without looking at all of them.


Only two easy wins all year. Northwestern and Wisconsin.
Say what? lol We have PJ Fleck doing handsprings on the sideline and you're peeing your pants over MAC, Sun Belt and ACC teams? Brutal.......
 


btowngopher

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Say what? lol We have PJ Fleck doing handsprings on the sideline and you're peeing your pants over MAC, Sun Belt and ACC teams? Brutal.......
And you have Brian Ferentz for another year trying to figure out which end zone to go towards.
 


Wooty_Woot

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And you have Brian Ferentz for another year trying to figure out which end zone to go towards.
Not an Iowa fan, hon, but he is undefeated vs. Legend Fleck. Think much before you type? Wait...I know that one!
 

Some guy

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The brutality of this:

We are going to play a top 4 ACC team.
A Louisiana team that has the 7th best winning percentage in college football since 2019
MAC East champ
Yeah. That’s a pretty tough non conference schedule.

Wisconsin
7th place pac 12
6-6 mac
6-6 sun belt

Iowa
Last place big 12
5-7 mac
6-6 mountain west

Nebraska
Last place pac 12
3-9 mac
3-9 conference USA

Combine that with the crossovers and having to play top 5 wisconsin and it’s a pretty toughs schedule
 


Panthadad2

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You come over here as an admitted troll and you're easily offended?

You think I'm projecting? You think I'm trolling Badger boards pretending to be a Badger fan to fill the axe shaped hole in my heart? I was a Gopher fan throughout the entire axe-drought and I never even considered trolling Badger boards. If I was that pathetic I would off of myself, seriously.

As far as delusional fans that you and your loser "friends" find great enjoyment in, welcome to message boards! Do you know how stupid you have to be to be surprised that message boards are full of delusional homers? Get this, I bet the Purdue message boards are full of Purdue homers and some of them are delusional. WILD STUFF HUH?

As far as it being a great source of entertainment for you, I'm sure it is, the kind of loser that I described would take great enjoyment at trolling at your age is exactly what I described. It's okay man, you can always go on a diet and do better in life. I imagine when your personal life turns around, you'll see that doing this stuff is just silly.

TLDR
If you're going to troll, you have to be able to take some insults. When I joked with you back, I didn't know your wife was fat, but I do now.

You're way way off base Bob...

There's no way that loser has a wife.
 

PMWinSTP

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Yea I remember those days. Honestly feels like us Minnesota fans are still living in them....meanwhile JUST THIS WEEK, Wisconsin landed a top 50 WR from USC (over Georgia and ND), another 4 star QB (make that 4 of 'em since Fickell joined), an All-American kicker and a first team all conference lineman.....must be nice being a Wisconsin fan.

But honestly who cares, PJ Fleck has BIG aspirations to someday win the West and if we row the boat hard enough we might actually do it sometime in the next 20 years.

https://247sports.com/Article/Former-USC-WR-CJ-Williams-is-headed-to-Wisconsin--202789609/

https://theathletic.com/4078355/2023/01/10/wisconsin-football-transfers-locke-pauling-vakos/

https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/20...enfro-from-cincinnati-luke-fickell-phil-longo
Your transparency is amazing.
 




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