Vegas win total 7.5

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Spoofin said:
My thoughts (% chance MN wins)
Buffalo 95%
at Oregon State 75%
Middle Tennessee 90%
Maryland 80%
at Purdue 90%
Michigan State 70%
Illinois 90%
at Iowa 60%
at Michigan 25%
Nebraska 60%
at Northwestern 50%
Wisconsin 50%


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Man I wish!
 

dpodoll68 said:
Tamping2.gif


Don't forget - he's a "homer".
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Yes - I am a 'homer.' So much so that I am laying the foundation to get super pumped over an 8 win season (which is entirely possible). I don't think being a homer means you set high expectations and then get disappointed. Being a homer is creating a narrative where a seemingly disappointing season is actually something to celebrate. An example: a homer will look at Middle Tennessee State and remark about how great their offense is and how the Gophers will have to be at the top of their game to come out with a win. A Reusse will say something to the effect that if the Gophers don't blow them out by 30, it will be a disappointment allowing him to rip the team afterwards either way. I'm a homer that is playing the long game...as well as being full of BS half the time.
 

60's Guy said:
I'd agree with these probabilities, which adds up to 7 wins. 5 we should win and 2 slightly favored but 5 games we are underdogs in. Makes 8 wins look pretty daunting.
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I mean, using SB nation's game probabilities, if we played this season a million times, we'd win 8 games like 18% of the time. That's about 1 out of every 5 tries, though 6 or 7 wins is more likely.
 

The non-scientific point of view.

In every season, there are games you 'should' win - and you win.
There are games you 'should' win - and you lose.
There are games you 'might' win - and you win.
There are games you 'might' win - and you lose.
There are games you 'might' lose - and you win.
There are games you 'might' lose - and you lose.
There are games you 'should' lose - and you win.
There are games you 'should' lose - and you lose.

If you can win all the games you should win, and most of the games you might win, it's generally going to be an acceptable season. The big thing is this - try to avoid losing the games you should win, and win at least one game you should lose.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
The non-scientific point of view.

In every season, there are games you 'should' win - and you win.
There are games you 'should' win - and you lose.
There are games you 'might' win - and you win.
There are games you 'might' win - and you lose.
There are games you 'might' lose - and you win.
There are games you 'might' lose - and you lose.
There are games you 'should' lose - and you win.
There are games you 'should' lose - and you lose.

If you can win all the games you should win, and most of the games you might win, it's generally going to be an acceptable season. The big thing is this - try to avoid losing the games you should win, and win at least one game you should lose.
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In recent history the Gophers have been doing a good job of winning the games they "should win", "might win" and even "might lose". Last year I believe they won every game they were favored in (please fact check that as I'm going off memory). A few years ago that wasn't always true. They haven't been winning many games they "should" lose (Washington State being a major exception). The problem is the games they "should" lose have been the same every year (for the most part) and they continue to lose (i.e. trophy games, tOSU, etc.). What I hope to see is those games become a "might" lose or win. That will be the significant improvement in this program.

The above to me is the major difference between the Kill/Claeys era and the Mason era. Kill/Claeys won the games they were supposed to win and lost the games they were supposed to lose (after the first couple seasons). Mason would win most the should wins but would stumble randomly and pull out a loss. But then they'd beat someone they had no business beating (tOSU, Michigan, etc.). So my last comment above is basically I hope Fleck continues the stability of winning where you're supposed to that Kill/Claeys had but raises the threshold of the quality of teams that fall into each category...
 


hello-world said:
I mean, using SB nation's game probabilities, if we played this season a million times, we'd win 8 games like 18% of the time. That's about 1 out of every 5 tries, though 6 or 7 wins is more likely.
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What did it produce for probabilities for last season? What was the % for 8 wins?
 

PMWinSTP said:
What did it produce for probabilities for last season? What was the % for 8 wins?
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Well...
Let's start with the article here:
https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...gophers-football-2016-preview-schedule-roster
It lists these win probabilities:
games = [ .78, .96, .84, .33, .56, .51, .78, .57, .78, .32, .62, .39]
(Keep in mind this doesn't include bowl games)
And running through those probabilities 1 million times we get this:
0 wins: 2 Buy lottery ticket.
1 win: 40 .0004%
2 wins: 549 .05%
3 wins: 4309 .4%
4 wins: 22458 2.2%
5 wins: 74236 7%
6 wins: 164327 16%
7 wins: 243479 24%
8 wins: 244427 24 %
9 wins: 161519 16%
10 wins: 67411 7%
11 wins: 15619 1.5%
12 wins: 1624 .2%
We ended with 8 wins which was the most likely result.
It's worth noting that this method probably wouldn't have predicted 1-11 Brewster, and we did just get a new coach so...
 

GopherHomer said:
Yes - I am a 'homer.' So much so that I am laying the foundation to get super pumped over an 8 win season (which is entirely possible). I don't think being a homer means you set high expectations and then get disappointed. Being a homer is creating a narrative where a seemingly disappointing season is actually something to celebrate. An example: a homer will look at Middle Tennessee State and remark about how great their offense is and how the Gophers will have to be at the top of their game to come out with a win. A Reusse will say something to the effect that if the Gophers don't blow them out by 30, it will be a disappointment allowing him to rip the team afterwards either way. I'm a homer that is playing the long game...as well as being full of BS half the time.
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Would one be considered a 'homer' or a 'Reusse' if they downplay wins as virtually being losses - say if we don't beat a "bad" team by enough? Asking for a few friends.


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Athlon chimes in:

Minnesota Golden Gophers
(Over 7.5 +115...Under 7.5 -135)

P.J. Fleck comes over from Western Michigan and optimism couldn't be higher for this team. There are some pieces to work with including Rodney Smith at running back and a pretty good offensive line. The questions start at quarterback where it's Conor Rhoda vs Demry Croft. The defense was a strong point last year, but only four starters return. Emmit Carpenter is back at kicker and he was a difference- maker. A fast start is expected with three of four at home to start. I think the under is definitely the way to go, but not at this price. The wins need to come early, because the back end of the schedule is tough.

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/examining-over-under-2017-win-totals-big-ten

Go Gophers!!
 

Spoofin said:
My thoughts (% chance MN wins)
Buffalo 95%
at Oregon State 75%
Middle Tennessee 90%
Maryland 80%
at Purdue 90%
Michigan State 70%
Illinois 90%
at Iowa 60%
at Michigan 25%
Nebraska 60%
at Northwestern 50%
Wisconsin 50%


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Wow.

I wonder what the 1,000 seasons would say about that.

I'd go with:

Buffalo 70% (first game jitters)
at Oregon State 40%
Middle Tennessee 75%
Maryland 70%
at Purdue 70%
Michigan State 45%
Illinois 70%
at Iowa 35%
at Michigan 20%
Nebraska 40%
at Northwestern 40%
Wisconsin 10% (only because we haven't done it in forever)
 


Face The Facts said:
Wow.

I wonder what the 1,000 seasons would say about that.

I'd go with:

Buffalo 70% (first game jitters)
at Oregon State 40%
Middle Tennessee 75%
Maryland 70%
at Purdue 70%
Michigan State 45%
Illinois 70%
at Iowa 35%
at Michigan 20%
Nebraska 40%
at Northwestern 40%
Wisconsin 10% (only because we haven't done it in forever)
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Not good things
0 - 12
1 - 203
2 - 1251
3 - 5148
4 - 12854
5 - 21627
6 - 24800
7 - 19631
8 - 10217
9 - 3478
10 - 697
11 - 76
12 - 6
(out of 100k)

If we lose to Buffalo then Fleck is going to be on the hot-seat very early in his big school career.
I'm not watching another Brewster.
 



A Buffalo loss would essentially be on the scale of the USD loss. That would be an absolutely disastrous start to the Fleck tenure. The good news is that we will beat them by 40.
 

dpodoll68 said:
A Buffalo loss would essentially be on the scale of the USD loss. That would be an absolutely disastrous start to the Fleck tenure. The good news is that we will beat them by 40.
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Giving odds on that? Look, I fully expect the Gophers to win - but 40 pts? Lest we not forget - 1st game with new coaching staff, new offensive and defensive systems, new starter at QB, and new players in the rotation at almost every position. I would not be shocked to see the team be a little slow coming out of the gate. If they win by at least 20 points, I will be OK. Just don't want a 4th-quarter nail-biter - I may have to double-up on my blood pressure medication, and stay well hydrated if I don't want to pass out.
 

hello-world said:
Not good things
0 - 12
1 - 203
2 - 1251
3 - 5148
4 - 12854
5 - 21627
6 - 24800
7 - 19631
8 - 10217
9 - 3478
10 - 697
11 - 76
12 - 6
(out of 100k)

If we lose to Buffalo then Fleck is going to be on the hot-seat very early in his big school career.
I'm not watching another Brewster.
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This seems really accurate.

I think there's a good chance of us winning 4 or 5... 6 if things go really well.

Anything more than 6, I say we start building a statue.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Giving odds on that? Look, I fully expect the Gophers to win - but 40 pts? Lest we not forget - 1st game with new coaching staff, new offensive and defensive systems, new starter at QB, and new players in the rotation at almost every position. I would not be shocked to see the team be a little slow coming out of the gate. If they win by at least 20 points, I will be OK. Just don't want a 4th-quarter nail-biter - I may have to double-up on my blood pressure medication, and stay well hydrated if I don't want to pass out.
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The line is -26.5. I'll be surprised if we don't cover. Buffalo is terrible. Fleck also knows them really well and WMU beat them 38-0 last year.
 


I think your expectations are too low.
Anything below 6 wins is pretty bad given that we have Buffalo, MTSU, Maryland, Purdue, and Illinois.
I'm not saying that those will be automatic, but they should be.
Throw in a couple tossups with Nebraska and MSU and 6 wins is expected, not praised.

I will call for Flecks head if we're not bowl eligible.
Between Shannon Brooks and our defense, there is no excuse to not win.

I don't think we have a prayer of winning our division, but we should be playing meaningful games in November.
I'll contribute to the statue if he wins 8 (and beats the o/u) against this schedule.
 


hello-world said:
I think your expectations are too low.
Anything below 6 wins is pretty bad given that we have Buffalo, MTSU, Maryland, Purdue, and Illinois.
I'm not saying that those will be automatic, but they should be.
Throw in a couple tossups with Nebraska and MSU and 6 wins is expected, not praised.

I will call for Flecks head if we're not bowl eligible.
Between Shannon Brooks and our defense, there is no excuse to not win.

I don't think we have a prayer of winning our division, but we should be playing meaningful games in November.
I'll contribute to the statue if he wins 8 (and beats the o/u) against this schedule.
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Agreed on less than 6 is a disappointment. Since he Mason turnaround in 1999 Gophers have been at 6 regular season wins or more in 13/18 seasons. Mason had fewer than 6 regular season wins just once after 1999. Brewster/Horton twice. Kill/Claeys twice.

Less than 6 regular season wins instantly makes it one of the worst 5 seasons in the last 20 years.


Disagreed on Flecks head for 5 wins. Not much separates 5 wins from 7. Maybe 10 plays. Job security and record don't really correlate to me. Job security should be tied to the state of the program. A record is a symptom of the state of the program, but it doesn't tell the whole story.
 

Some guy said:
Agreed on less than 6 is a disappointment. Since he Mason turnaround in 1999 Gophers have been at 6 regular season wins or more in 13/18 seasons. Mason had fewer than 6 regular season wins just once after 1999. Brewster/Horton twice. Kill/Claeys twice.

Less than 6 regular season wins instantly makes it one of the worst 5 seasons in the last 20 years.


Disagreed on Flecks head for 5 wins. Not much separates 5 wins from 7. Maybe 10 plays. Job security and record don't really correlate to me. Job security should be tied to the state of the program. A record is a symptom of the state of the program, but it doesn't tell the whole story.
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I get it, but this is a team that had the talent level to compete with Michigan and Wisconsin one year ago.
I'm not buying Fleck's rebuilding project bs.
This is at worst a reclamation.
Where Kill needed to build ground up, Fleck needs to fill holes.
Brewster came in, tried to rebuild, and trashed our program.
If Fleck follows the same path, I will absolutely not be patient.
6-win season, minimum, or Coyle needs to start interviewing.
(I will state that for contract reasons, I know this won't happen, but I sure as hell won't be renewing my season tickets).
 

In Vegas as we speak. (Getting slaughtered). Found it interesting that they show the Gophs at 300-1 to play in the Nat'l Championship. MSU was 100-1 in January and are now 300-1. Nebraska, MSU, Iowa, Arkansas at 300-1 too. Only 40 teams shown. All others 500-1
 

Mvgopher said:
In Vegas as we speak. (Getting slaughtered). Found it interesting that they show the Gophs at 300-1 to play in the Nat'l Championship. MSU was 100-1 in January and are now 300-1. Nebraska, MSU, Iowa, Arkansas at 300-1 too. Only 40 teams shown. All others 500-1
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Hope your luck changes. Otherwise, make up your losses in beer.


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