Vegas win total 7.5

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Killjoy said:
LOL - Some of you are way overthinking this. I will give you clue - Las Vegas is guaranteed to make money if half of the money is placed on both sides of the bet. it is a great business model.
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Look a little closer and that's what most posts have said. That 7-8 wins is about what they expect. 7.5 then seems just right.

If that's what you were trying to say that is. ;)
 


New staff, new quarterback, need to replace much of our secondary, and short-staffed o-line.
I'll take one under please.
 

CentralGopher said:
I'll take the over


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I would gladly take your bet (and the result!). In all seriousness, 8 wins would be an amazing season. For a school like Minnesota to make a full scale change and pretty much continue our success would be amazing. We are more Purdue than Michigan. Most of the times when schools like us make a coaching change we tend to suffer a painful "transition phase." If we can pick up where we left off, it will be a sign that we have turned a small corner as a program.
 



JTsolo612 said:
Whys Freaked out Goldy mad at me now? I'm just saying, that bowl game is another chance to get to 8. Even If it counts then I'd say under still anyways though haha. And hope I'm wrong. I'm weird with gambling. My emotional attachment to the teams success is stronger than my attachment to money. I'd rather lose


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Iceland12 said:
You're emotionally attached to the team's success yet you don't think the Fleck and company can win 8 games out of 13? Something that they've done 3 of the last 4 years? Don't get me wrong, only winning 7 games in the regular season and losing to a much better team in a Bowl Game wouldn't be a fiasco. Not as long as there were a couple more trophies in the case after the Big Ten season. Though that would be the floor not the ceiling.

Gotta figure that with all the close losses over the last couple of seasons, lost leads, bad game day decisions and Fleck's rep for making good game day decisions, expecting them to end-up over .500 in the regular season and maybe adding to that in a Bowl Game certainly isn't a stretch.

Particularly when they had to play without 5 players plus in what 5 games last year? And they won 4 of them. They ended-up winning 5 more games than they lost. It wasn't an illusion.

Honestly can't see them going 7-6 unless a big run of injuries and coaching mistakes take them down. Not expecting either.
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FYI - it is only the regular season, NOT the Bowl game. They'd have no way to predict who the Bowl opponent would be, so there's no way to know whether they'd be likely to win or not.

Thus 8-4 is the minimum to win over. I wouldn't say I see that as impossible, but it's pretty easy to see 7-5, also. If I remember right, I suggested setting it at 7 EVEN or 6.5 -125 OVER the first time we discussed this. I'd feel better betting that because at least 7 wins would break even (or win, depending). I couldn't see myself betting either way at 7.5 EVEN, which probably means (at least for me) they got it right. If you put a gun to my head I'd say over, but I wouldn't choose to put money on it.
 

GopherHomer said:
I would gladly take your bet (and the result!). In all seriousness, 8 wins would be an amazing season. For a school like Minnesota to make a full scale change and pretty much continue our success would be amazing. We are more Purdue than Michigan. Most of the times when schools like us make a coaching change we tend to suffer a painful "transition phase." If we can pick up where we left off, it will be a sign that we have turned a small corner as a program.
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"Amazing" huh? :rolleyes:
 

GopherHomer said:
I would gladly take your bet (and the result!). In all seriousness, 8 wins would be an amazing season. For a school like Minnesota to make a full scale change and pretty much continue our success would be amazing. We are more Purdue than Michigan. Most of the times when schools like us make a coaching change we tend to suffer a painful "transition phase." If we can pick up where we left off, it will be a sign that we have turned a small corner as a program.
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In close to half these situations, the incoming HC maintains or improves on the win total. There was a whole thread on this a couple months ago with the stats.
 

Iceland12 said:
"Amazing" huh? :rolleyes:
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Tamping2.gif


Don't forget - he's a "homer".
 



Iceland12 said:
You're emotionally attached to the team's success yet you don't think the Fleck and company can win 8 games out of 13? Something that they've done 3 of the last 4 years? Don't get me wrong, only winning 7 games in the regular season and losing to a much better team in a Bowl Game wouldn't be a fiasco. Not as long as there were a couple more trophies in the case after the Big Ten season. Though that would be the floor not the ceiling.

Gotta figure that with all the close losses over the last couple of seasons, lost leads, bad game day decisions and Fleck's rep for making good game day decisions, expecting them to end-up over .500 in the regular season and maybe adding to that in a Bowl Game certainly isn't a stretch.

Particularly when they had to play without 5 players plus in what 5 games last year? And they won 4 of them. They ended-up winning 5 more games than they lost. It wasn't an illusion.

Honestly can't see them going 7-6 unless a big run of injuries and coaching mistakes take them down. Not expecting either.
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You just talked me into the over lol but no I'm seriously thinking 7-5 then a decent bowl game which means a decent opponent. A Tenesse or ole Miss depending on how their season goes. I don't anticipate coaching mistakes and with such bad luck w injuries lately were due some health. But look at the schedule. You see us beating all 3 Iowa Wisky and Nebraska and sweeping the west almost which would put us in the championship game? Not sure I'm ready to go that far in year 1.


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Lakeville Goldy said:
FYI - it is only the regular season, NOT the Bowl game. They'd have no way to predict who the Bowl opponent would be, so there's no way to know whether they'd be likely to win or not.

Thus 8-4 is the minimum to win over. I wouldn't say I see that as impossible, but it's pretty easy to see 7-5, also. If I remember right, I suggested setting it at 7 EVEN or 6.5 -125 OVER the first time we discussed this. I'd feel better betting that because at least 7 wins would break even (or win, depending). I couldn't see myself betting either way at 7.5 EVEN, which probably means (at least for me) they got it right. If you put a gun to my head I'd say over, but I wouldn't choose to put money on it.
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Without a bowl game I'd say the smart money is under. Some peolpe bet w their hearts and not their minds though. They're known in darker and more sinister gambling circles as "victims" lol. But yeah it's right on the border in this case I can easily see it going either way and would skip placing a bet on this particular line.


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A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I was just posting that as it is one of those rabbit hole discussions ;)

I don't care how anyone counts it personally.
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The FAN has learned that vegas does indeed NOT count the bowl game. Our top flight source is some dude on GH lol but hey. Answers the question and we can all avoid going down the rabbit hole. Or Freaked out Goldy hole lol. Man something really has that chipmunk concerned...


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JTsolo612 said:
You just talked me into the over lol but no I'm seriously thinking 7-5 then a decent bowl game which means a decent opponent. A Tenesse or ole Miss depending on how their season goes. I don't anticipate coaching mistakes and with such bad luck w injuries lately were due some health. But look at the schedule. You see us beating all 3 Iowa Wisky and Nebraska and sweeping the west almost which would put us in the championship game? Not sure I'm ready to go that far in year 1.


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Made sense until the last two sentences. Were you talking to somebody else? Or do you think they need to sweep Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska to get to 8 wins or to get them into a Bowl Game?
 



GopherHomer said:
I would gladly take your bet (and the result!). In all seriousness, 8 wins would be an amazing season. For a school like Minnesota to make a full scale change and pretty much continue our success would be amazing. We are more Purdue than Michigan. Most of the times when schools like us make a coaching change we tend to suffer a painful "transition phase." If we can pick up where we left off, it will be a sign that we have turned a small corner as a program.
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I believe I will place my bet in vegas not with you. No offense but that is kind of the point. I also agree it will be tough but I feel with the players returning and favorable schedule it is doable.


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Iceland12 said:
Made sense until the last two sentences. Were you talking to somebody else? Or do you think they need to sweep Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska to get to 8 wins or to get them into a Bowl Game?
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Should've spaced it out as a paragraph as it was a separate thought and question. Just gaging your optimism since you mentioned you don't see 7-5 unless there's something wrong. (I say 7-5 because it has been determined vegas does NOT count the bowl game) so I was asking if you see them almost running the west and going to the big 10 championship game, or what's you're prediction? May be it's more optimistic than mine but hey we're here to discuss these viewpoints while we act like we're working at the office right? (Lol jk I don't even work at an office)


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JTsolo612 said:
Should've spaced it out as a paragraph as it was a separate thought and question. Just gaging your optimism since you mentioned you don't see 7-5 unless there's something wrong. (I say 7-5 because it has been determined vegas does NOT count the bowl game) so I was asking if you see them almost running the west and going to the big 10 championship game, or what's you're prediction? May be it's more optimistic than mine but hey we're here to discuss these viewpoints while we act like we're working at the office right? (Lol jk I don't even work at an office)


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Okay, so you think the difference between going 7-5 and 8-4 is sweeping NE, WI and Iowa?

Nope, that sounds odd to me. Neither losing to Purdue, MD and IL and sweeping those 3 teams nor beating all those teams and going 8-1 or 7-2 in the Conference both sound very unlikely to me.
 

Iceland12 said:
Okay, so you think the difference between going 7-5 and 8-4 is sweeping NE, WI and Iowa?

Nope, that sounds odd to me. Neither losing to Purdue, MD and IL and sweeping those 3 teams nor beating all those teams and going 8-1 or 7-2 in the Conference both sound very unlikely to me.
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Like I said it was a separate thought and question from the gambling line. So you think they'll win 8 on the dot. And no for that they don't need to beat all 3 the other contenders in the west.


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JTsolo612 said:
Like I said it was a separate thought and question from the gambling line. So you think they'll win 8 on the dot. And no for that they don't need to beat all 3 the other contenders in the west.


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They could win a couple more, they shouldn't lose a couple less. You should learn how to ask a direct question..
 

So assuming the following probabilities for our games (sequentially):
games = [ .9, .3333, .75, .6666, .6, .5, .75, .25, .1, .5, .2, .1]
I ran a 10,000 season simulation and came up with the following distribution:
0 wins: 0
1 win: 17
2 wins: 115
3 wins: 551
4 wins: 1435
5 wins: 2434
6 wins: 2608
7 wins: 1820
8 wins: 779
9 wins: 199
10 wins: 37
11 wins: 4
12 wins: 1
I think the under is a pretty safe bet.
 


I took them from espn.
It doesn't take me very long to run this if you want to try your own numbers.
 

hello-world said:
So assuming the following probabilities for our games (sequentially):
games = [ .9, .3333, .75, .6666, .6, .5, .75, .25, .1, .5, .2, .1]
I ran a 10,000 season simulation and came up with the following distribution:
0 wins: 0
1 win: 17
2 wins: 115
3 wins: 551
4 wins: 1435
5 wins: 2434
6 wins: 2608
7 wins: 1820
8 wins: 779
9 wins: 199
10 wins: 37
11 wins: 4
12 wins: 1
I think the under is a pretty safe bet.
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Where did you come up with those win probabilities? Most all are too low, some way too low. Run your simulation with the numbers from Bill Connelly, who actually has some statistical rigor behind his probabilities:

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...gophers-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

Buffalo 94%
at Oregon State 46%
Middle Tennessee 79%
Maryland 68%
at Purdue 69%
Michigan State 54%
Illinois 77%
at Iowa 44%
at Michigan 15%
Nebraska 53%
at Northwestern 39%
Wisconsin 25%
 

0 wins: 0
1 win: 2
2 wins: 27
3 wins: 156
4 wins: 667
5 wins: 1471
6 wins: 2279
7 wins: 2505
8 wins: 1767
9 wins: 840
10 wins: 245
11 wins: 39
12 wins: 2

It seems kinda off that I'm not getting 0 wins seasons so I'm going to look at that real quick but this is what I got with your numbers.
games = [ .94, .46, .79, .68, .69, .54, .77, .44, .15, .53, .39, .25]

EDIT
I had just been getting lucky, got a couple 0 win seasons in a different run, the numbers above are good.
 

Analysis for those that aren't inclined to do it:
To beat a 7.5 win o/u the Gophers need to win 8 games.
Without bowl games, they will do this in ~28.93% of seasons according to the second run.
With bowl games:
There's about a 25% chance they will win 7 games (leaving them in the running to get an 8th win in a bowl).
If you think they have about a 50/50 chance of winning a bowl (I think it's usually lower) then we're sitting around a 41% chance of beating the o/u.
 

(1) We're the U of MN
(2) New Coach

Bet the under.
 


dpodoll68 said:
Where did you come up with those win probabilities? Most all are too low, some way too low. Run your simulation with the numbers from Bill Connelly, who actually has some statistical rigor behind his probabilities:

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...gophers-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

Buffalo 94%
at Oregon State 46%
Middle Tennessee 79%
Maryland 68%
at Purdue 69%
Michigan State 54%
Illinois 77%
at Iowa 44%
at Michigan 15%
Nebraska 53%
at Northwestern 39%
Wisconsin 25%
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I'd agree with these probabilities, which adds up to 7 wins. 5 we should win and 2 slightly favored but 5 games we are underdogs in. Makes 8 wins look pretty daunting.
 

60's Guy said:
I'd agree with these probabilities, which adds up to 7 wins. 5 we should win and 2 slightly favored but 5 games we are underdogs in. Makes 8 wins look pretty daunting.
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Well that... also consider that winning every game you're favored in is also not as probable as it might seem.
 

My thoughts (% chance MN wins)
Buffalo 95%
at Oregon State 75%
Middle Tennessee 90%
Maryland 80%
at Purdue 90%
Michigan State 70%
Illinois 90%
at Iowa 60%
at Michigan 25%
Nebraska 60%
at Northwestern 50%
Wisconsin 50%


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