The recommendation of experts? What experts? This is where Biden was an absolute colossal fool the other day when he said he would shut things down again if that's what they scientists said. Hey Joe, When you're wearing the Big Boy pants, when you're the boss, when you're in charge, you don't just get to punt and abdicate your decision making to experts. It's not their decision to make; When you're in charge, you take the input from the "experts"/scientists, you take the input from economists, from the business world, you take input from a number of different realms and areas of knowledge and you evaluate all of that information in order for YOU to make the decision. IF it were up to scientists, it would be required to be a scientist to be Prez. That answer told us all that Joe is pretty much what we all know him to be and what he's proven to be for the last half century in politics; an ineffective cowardly career politician.
At the risk of getting into a pissing contest here, with all due respect, you kind of missed the mark with your wager. Aside from the fact that your proposed wager had nothing to do with the hypothetical that I threw out there, the metrics or parameters of your wager are wildly arbitrary and subjective; "if COVID suddenly goes away"? Who gets to decide what that entails? Even the condition regarding release of a vaccine isn't entirely set in stone; there could be a vaccine next week but perhaps it meets the review and acceptance of some but not others (FDA, et al). If you're hell bent on a wager, PM me and I'm sure we can come up with agreeable terms that would suffice. It can't be that hard. That sounds like fun, or at least a nice distraction from the board.
Besides you left no provision for the possibility, albeit I'm sure REMOTE, that the incumbent wins again. I know, I know, it's unthinkable, right?!