University of Alabama COVID-19 outbreak not great news for college football season

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Pompous Elitist said:
Raised, because relevant to a discussion on risk - something way over your head.
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And risk is raised because it's a red herring. specifically concocted to distract from the actual concern at hand, contagiousness.
 

There are going to be way, way more college students that die of alcohol poisoning in the next couple months
Block M said:
The inevitable "more likely to die in a car crash" talking point.
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Actually, for these college students, I would have gone much more in favor of the "more likely to die by alcohol poisoning"; much, much more likely
 

PitinoFan said:
Ban cars, ban alcohol. I’ll bet a decent number of the “cancel the season” crowd drinks and drives on occasion (while wearing their fucking mask, of course).
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Last I checked, drinking alcohol doesn't infect any other person with drunkenness. Also last I checked, crashing your car doesn't infect any other person with car crashing.

Anything else, for now?
 

Pete smith said:
Thanks SON for finally some facts. In my District, a BIG majority of the teachers want in person education. A small minority want on line only (the lazy, older teachers who can’t be fired because of the Union - my opinion). MplsGopher is way off base with his guess that majority want on line only.
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In your small, rural district, maybe.

But nationwide -- as I actually said -- I'm probably correct.
 


MplsGopher said:
Last I checked, drinking alcohol doesn't infect any other person with drunkenness. Also last I checked, crashing your car doesn't infect any other person with car crashing.

Anything else, for now?
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If they crash into another car, motorcycle, pedestrian, someone’s house, it will probably affect other people. Are you seriously this dense? For the record, I don’t think you are. You just try too hard to win every argument, and throw a lot of shit against the wall.
 
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PitinoFan said:
If they crash into another car, motorcycle, pedestrian, someone’s house, it will probably affect other people. Are you seriously this dense? For the record, I don’t think you are. You just try to hard to win every argument, and throw a lot of shit against the wall.
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Bolded: that's not analogous to infection, as you know.

Contagiousness is the only context here. "Risk" is a distraction. Don't get me wrong, it's clever. Designed to make it difficult for those not smart enough to understand the difference. Luckily, some of us can see through it and strike it down.
 

Hey MplsGopher what makes you think I live in a small, rural District?
 

MplsGopher said:
Bolded: that's not analogous to infection, as you know.

Contagiousness is the only context here. "Risk" is a distraction. Don't get me wrong, it's clever. Designed to make it difficult for those not smart enough to understand the difference. Luckily, some of us can see through it and strike it down.
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I rest my case.
 





RE: University of Alabama: Key date to watch is September 9th. That is the day that tuition is not refunded. Just my prediction, but I think it will be all systems go with students regardless of Covid #'s until then. After that date, they may or may not make a decision.
 

MplsGopher said:
Bolded: that's not analogous to infection, as you know.

Contagiousness is the only context here. "Risk" is a distraction. Don't get me wrong, it's clever. Designed to make it difficult for those not smart enough to understand the difference. Luckily, some of us can see through it and strike it down.
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It’s true they are not the same in terms of exponential growth potential; more so in the sense if you leave your house there is risk involved. Death, short term injury or long term injury and disability, and absolute risk is above zero. There is even risk of leaving children in hot cars, or backing over someone, or being struck by a negligent driver. You could even be responsible for the injuries of people in your vehicle ir a vehicle you strike. Most of us don’t think too much about it other than to take common sense precautions to mitigate risk to ourselves and others.
 



Back to Alabama - from the most recent issue of Time Magazine:

More than 1,000 students have tested positive at the University of Alabama’s Tuscaloosa campus in less than two weeks, stoking fears that colleges reopening for in-person classes could contribute to a surge in COVID-19 cases.

Since in-person classes started on Aug. 19, a total of 1,043 students have tested positive for coronavirus at the campus, the university system reported Friday, although no students were hospitalized for the virus at that time.

To be fair, no students have been hospitalized to my knowledge.

At this rate, Saban will have the players wearing hazmat suits if they're not at the football complex.
 

Don’t quote me but I believe the cumulative hospitalization rate per CDC in the 18-29
yr age cohort is something like 66 per 100,000.

I haven’t seen stats on number hospitalized per infected since nobody really knows the denominator.

Colleges that are doing universal testing will be good case studies to help define this better.
 

In my county 34/2100 confirmed Covid cases in the 20-29 age bracket have been hospitalized. 1.7% if my calculator is working correctly. I dont think hospitalizations will be tracked or made available at my university
 

short ornery norwegian said:
On the school thing - FWIW - on "Stay Safe MN" at the State Dept of Health site, they have the 14-day average Covid-19 case rate for each county. This is what school districts are supposed to follow for recommendations on what learning model to adopt.

There are 87 counties in MN.

As of the last report,
50 counties had a case rate of 0-10 per 10,000 people. at that level, all schools may hold in-person classes.

29 Counties had a case rate of 10-20. The recommendation is Elementary in-person, MS/HS Hybrid.

7 Counties had a case rate of 20-30. The recommendation is all schools in hybrid model.

1 county had a case rate of 30-50. the recommendation is Elementary hybrid, MS/HS distance learning.

No counties have a case rate above 50, which would mean all schools distance learning.

So only one county in the state has a rate high enough that would require distance learning, and that is for MS/HS students.

And again- "hybrid" does not mean half in school, half home. schools can have all students in class under the hybrid model if they can limit classrooms to 50% capacity with social distancing. My local school district is doing that, and they had to hire more teachers so they could split up the Elementary grades into more sections with fewer kids in each section.
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Yes, and we all know the State guidelines are not soft. Yet my school is totally distance but they are doing daycare for my kids at school, lol....
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Don’t quote me but I believe the cumulative hospitalization rate per CDC in the 18-29
yr age cohort is something like 66 per 100,000.

I haven’t seen stats on number hospitalized per infected since nobody really knows the denominator.

Colleges that are doing universal testing will be good case studies to help define this better.
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It is just ridiculous how you guys just keep trying to state that Covid-19 is so harmless. Repeatedly you report deaths or even hospitalizations as reasons that Covid-19 is no big deal.

So far we have over 183K people die in about 5 months! Here is a table of data from the CDC showing the disease causes of death in the US. As you can see, in 5 months Covid-19 has already moved into what would be third place. If you extrapolated the 5 months out to a year (no seasonality seen so far) that give about 440K deaths. That would mean that Covid-19 could account for 16% of all the death in the entire US. That is like having 5 1/2 cites the size of Duluth die off in just one year!

Screen Shot 2020-08-31 at 10.23.33 PM.jpg

You guys also talk about that we will have to just live with it and learn out to deal with it. It sure is a good thing that earlier generations didn't though in the towel on Polio, Diphtheria, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Smallpox, etc... They found a way to virtually eliminate them.

There is a lot we do not know about the danger of Covid-19, but recent studies have shown that their can be long term heart, lung and brain conditions that can affect victims for the rest of their life. For example, a study found that 55% of patients exhibited heart dysfunction (46% when pre-existing heart disease patients were excluded). It cause scaring and tissue damage to the heart.

https://hartfordhealthcare.org/services/heart-vascular/news/news-detail?articleId=27262

Other studies show that one of the main issues with Covid-19 is that is causes tiny blood clots inside blood vessels – primarily in the lungs. These, in turn, cause the blood oxygen level to fall, rapidly leading to a condition known as ‘hypoxia’. But the lungs are not the only target – small clots also form in other organs – like the kidneys. These micro-clots, and not infection, are the key feature of Covid-19.

Insisting that college football player "man-up" and "tough it out" is showing a total ignorance of the potential health hazards of Covid-19. Especially in the caustic culture that is college sports in the SEC.

The University of Alabama now has over 1,200 case of Covid-19. Obviously, their "plans" are not working.
 

Block M said:
In my county 34/2100 confirmed Covid cases in the 20-29 age bracket have been hospitalized. 1.7% if my calculator is working correctly. I dont think hospitalizations will be tracked or made available at my university
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Alabama is doing entry testing of all students and staff, and additional weekly random “sentinel“ testing of 2.5-5% of 30K students, clinical testing, etc. I believe the 1300 cases the last few weeks were a result of the random testing + clinical symptomatic + high risk exposures. The 1300 did not include the cases uncovered from entry testing.

This implies a pretty high rate early on in the year which probably isn’t that surprising. It probably also includes a pretty high proportion of random asymptomatics and presymptomatics.

The data will be fascinating to watch evolve. Despite the 1300 COV+ they have 70+ percent of their quarantine rooms unfilled, implying they are planning on making this work come hell or high water, barring a massive 5000+ person outbreak within a few weeks time. Possible, sure.
 

alchemy2u said:
It is just ridiculous how you guys just keep trying to state that Covid-19 is so harmless. Repeatedly you report deaths or even hospitalizations as reasons that Covid-19 is no big deal.

So far we have over 183K people die in about 5 months! Here is a table of data from the CDC showing the disease causes of death in the US. As you can see, in 5 months Covid-19 has already moved into what would be third place. If you extrapolated the 5 months out to a year (no seasonality seen so far) that give about 440K deaths. That would mean that Covid-19 could account for 16% of all the death in the entire US. That is like having 5 1/2 cites the size of Duluth die off in just one year!

View attachment 9255

You guys also talk about that we will have to just live with it and learn out to deal with it. It sure is a good thing that earlier generations didn't though in the towel on Polio, Diphtheria, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Smallpox, etc... They found a way to virtually eliminate them.

There is a lot we do not know about the danger of Covid-19, but recent studies have shown that their can be long term heart, lung and brain conditions that can affect victims for the rest of their life. For example, a study found that 55% of patients exhibited heart dysfunction (46% when pre-existing heart disease patients were excluded). It cause scaring and tissue damage to the heart.

https://hartfordhealthcare.org/services/heart-vascular/news/news-detail?articleId=27262

Other studies show that one of the main issues with Covid-19 is that is causes tiny blood clots inside blood vessels – primarily in the lungs. These, in turn, cause the blood oxygen level to fall, rapidly leading to a condition known as ‘hypoxia’. But the lungs are not the only target – small clots also form in other organs – like the kidneys. These micro-clots, and not infection, are the key feature of Covid-19.

Insisting that college football player "man-up" and "tough it out" is showing a total ignorance of the potential health hazards of Covid-19. Especially in the caustic culture that is college sports in the SEC.

The University of Alabama now has over 1,200 case of Covid-19. Obviously, their "plans" are not working.
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COVID 19 is a dangerous, deadly disease - no question. It is particularly dangerous for those with risk factors. The severity of injury is what’s in question. Any severe viral infection that puts someone in the hospital can potentially lead to long term problems. The study you mentioned has a selection bias issue - it only included people who were getting echocardiograms in the first place.

“this survey is subject to substantial case selection bias. For example, we do not know the prevalence of abnormalities in those who did not undergo scanning. In view of the complex logistics around scanning, echocardiography was probably limited to those with clear clinical indications or those with increased disease severity. Furthermore, the use of echocardiography has probably decreased in the current pandemic due to concerns over viral transmission, and this may further contribute to the selection of patients for scanning.“

academic.oup.com

Global evaluation of echocardiography in patients with COVID-19

AbstractAims. To describe the cardiac abnormalities in patients with COVID-19 and identify the characteristics of patients who would benefit most from echocardi
academic.oup.com academic.oup.com


Covid of course is associated with myocarditis but cancers, autoimmune disease and associated complications can result from innocuous infections...viruses suck and they cause a lot of problems. We’re exposed to them throughout our lives because we don’t live in a bubble. Maybe we should.
 
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Pompous Elitist said:
It’s true they are not the same in terms of exponential growth potential; more so in the sense if you leave your house there is risk involved. Death, short term injury or long term injury and disability, and absolute risk is above zero. There is even risk of leaving children in hot cars, or backing over someone, or being struck by a negligent driver. You could even be responsible for the injuries of people in your vehicle ir a vehicle you strike. Most of us don’t think too much about it other than to take common sense precautions to mitigate risk to ourselves and others.
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Just repeating the same disproven distraction, over and over again. It's all you have.

Contagiousness is the correct context. "Risk" is a distraction. And the fact that the disease randomly, and for no currently understood reason, devastates the bodies of young, healthy, no underlying conditions people.

If those cases never happened, then the world could be in a very different place right now. Where we could all but ensure only the elderly and those with underlying conditions would develop severe illness or die. But that is not the truth.
 





“25 former University of Alabama football players lead a class action lawsuit against the school and the NCAA, for an unprecedented $2.5 billion, after a fifth player has died from complications of covid-myocardio syndrome.”

- NY Times, 2035
 


Pompous Elitist said:
Definitely concerning, more-so for the general community. They probably won’t be screened as throughly as football players, or follow the convalescence timeline.
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Or have access to the medical staff available to the players, or the healthy immune system that the players have, and a number of other advantages that the players have on campus and at the athletic facility....
 


Pompous Elitist said:
Definitely concerning, more-so for the general community. They probably won’t be screened as throughly as football players, or follow the convalescence timeline.
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Good point! Regular people probably won't follow the suggested recovery period before they return to intense cardio workouts, multiple times a day, 6+ days per week for multiple weeks on end.
 

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