Thoughts on team as we head into Big Ten games

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MNVCGUY

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Not going to make any predictions on records or if Johnson will be able to save his job. But here is what I have seen through the first handful of games as we head towards Ohio State on Sunday.

Offense and depth are light years ahead of where they were last year. This team can score and has a pretty solid mix from a depth standpoint which gives Johnson some flexibility in terms of who he puts out there. 9 guys are averaging 10+ min a game so far which is great to see. He hasn't had that the past two years due to injuries and other roster issues.

Free throw shooting is greatly improved. Horrible free throw shooting really hurt this team in games that were closer last year. That should not be the case this year. Payne still struggling from the line which will make it tough for him to be on the court in close games but he does look more comfortable shooting free throws even if percentage is still rough.

When they play smart and under control this looks like a solid team.....but they have also been prone to stretches where they get ice cold and sloppy with the basketball.

In regards to individual players:
Carrington - has really improved from last season. His shooting is still inconsistent but he plays with a ton of effort and always seems be be around the basketball. Very solid defender who is not afraid to really challenge the guy he is guarding. Really good rebounder for a guard.

Payne - still developing but he is really impressive when he goes to work down low. Needs to stay out of foul trouble and still really struggling from the line.

Ihnen and Fox - Both are showing they can be key rotational guys. Many had totally written them off based on the surgeries but for those that did watch last night Fox showed that he is still really explosive as he made some jaw dropping plays.

Christie - He is going to be really really good. He wants the ball in his hands and he is a great pure shooter. Doesn't play like a true freshman and things certainly don't seem to be moving too fast for him. Will have his ups and downs but he has a chance to be special.

Garcia - has taken on the leadership role for this team but needs to be even more assertive. Really impressive player overall.

Hawkins and Mitchell - Look like good transfer pickups, will be interesting to see how they hold up in conference play. Hawkins is fun to watch when he has the ball in his hands but is also prone to mistakes and turnovers. He seems soft defensively as well and might struggle with better guards in conference. Mitchell is not afraid to take the 3 and hits a decent percentage of them. Prone to turnovers as well so needs to do a better job protecting the basketball.

Wilson - He is limited in what he can do but looks like he would be a ton of fun to have on the team and will quickly become a fan favorite when he is out there. Guessing he is a huge help for Payne in practice as well as it gives him a big body to go up against to help get him ready for conference play. First time I have seen him play but it is tough not to smile when he is out there.

There is a lot to like with this team. Will be interesting to see how they do against Big Ten teams. Definitely a lot more fun to watch this year than they were last year. Whether or not that will translate into enough wins remains to be seen.
 



I do think it is a team that can win 5-8 big ten games. Ihnen should not be getting more than 5 minutes. Play 8. He isn’t not one of those. i play fox he can guard either and can rebound knows his role, isnt going to float on the 3 pt line and shoot 10%. Carrington is a much much better defender and rebounder even at the 3 than Ihnen could ever be.

Front court

Garcia-33
Payne-25
Fox-12
JOJ-10

Wings-Backcourt depenending on size
Hawkins-25
Mitchell-25
Carrington-25
Christie-30
JOJ-15
 
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I think that a lot of fans - including myself - are just so beaten down from the last 2+ years that it's really hard to believe in this team.

they play a good half, or even a good game, and it looks promising. and then they fall apart they way they did against Missouri or San Fran.

there is no reservoir of good will left. one bad turnover - or a 4-minute scoring drought - and most of us see disaster looming.

So this team has to earn our trust again. and it won't be easy. they need to gut out tough games - show us they can finish games - show us they can avoid the 'black hole' scoring droughts - show us improvement - and win some games.

if the Gophers can put together a string of solid games, then maybe more of us can at least start to have some hope. but it's on the team to win us back. and it won't be easy.
 



Too many “ifs”.
If only Carrington was a better shooter.
If only Fox could shoot at all and stay in front of his man defensively.
If only Hawkins wasn’t a turnover machine and a liability on defense and could shoot.
If only Ihnen….
If only Mitchell was more solid defensively and handled the ball better.
If only Ola-Joseph hit the boards harder and put in more effort on the other end.
If only Payne wasn’t so raw.
If only Christie was more seasoned.
Probably squeezing about as much out of Garcia as possible.
If only the team played solid defense.
That is what I’ve garnered leading up to the BIG schedule.
Really dislike saying it.
 

howeda7 said:
Play OSU tough. Beat Nebraska. Go from there.
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Would love to get both of these, but I agree with this. Don't fold like a cheap accordion the first sign of trouble, especially on the road. Show some freaking grit. OSU is on a bit of a roll, but they are beatable.

I don't care how Nebraska has been playing, absolutely can not lose at home to the Huskers. That would send a message loud & clear where the Gophers are in the Big Ten pecking order heading into January.
 

howeda7 said:
Play OSU tough. Beat Nebraska. Go from there.
Click to expand...
Agreed find a way to split, win the rest of the non conference 10-3 heading into the new year.
under 1-@ Purdue
10 @ Mich st, @ Iowa
25 @MI @ IND @ Penn St, Mich St @ Neb, @ ILL, @NW
50 Mary, IOWA, WI, nw, Rutgers, Ohio St, ind
75 Penn St

Split the 50/50 beat penn state that is 6-14, steal one on the road 7-13 in the big ten, they have the talent and depth do they have the coaching. I do not know.
 



I think the talent and depth is there to get to 8 or 9 B1G wins...but like everyone else, have absolutely zero faith in the coaching and adjustments that will be needed to get us there.

Random thought- JOJ is being criminally underutilized. He's the best athlete and finisher on the team, can create his own shot, and has made himself into a solid 3pt shooter, especially from the corners (albeit on a low volume). Still needs to work on defense and rebounding but the potential is there for a really good B1G combo forward.
 

rivergopher said:
I do think it is a team that can win 5-8 big ten games. Ihnen should not be getting more than 5 minutes. Play 8. He isn’t not one of those. i play fox he can guard either and can rebound knows his role, isnt going to float on the 3 pt line and shoot 10%. Carrington is a much much better defender and rebounder even at the 3 than Ihnen could ever be.

Front court

Garcia-33
Payne-25
Fox-12
JOJ-10

Wings-Backcourt depenending on size
Hawkins-25
Mitchell-25
Carrington-25
Christie-30
JOJ-15
Click to expand...
Don't disagree with any of this^. I would add giving Ihnen his chances, but he has to produce or see his minutes reduced. That goes basically for anyone. If Ihnen could figure it out/put forth the effort, he COULD be a really good player. Nice to see Christie getting more points. Opponents will try to shut Garcia down. Need Christie (and others) to be a threat.
 


Good analysis in this thread, especially the OP; thanks, all.

I like the pieces I see, and this team definitely has scoring ability that last year's team could only dream about. That said, our statistical rating isn't in the same vicinity of the rest of the teams in the conference, strongly suggesting that our lame-o non-conference schedule is making the Gophers look better than they really are. Keep in mind this team lost to San Francisco by 18.

I'd like to see what Dawn P could do with this group. I'm serious.
 



The competency in free throw shooting is refreshing. That should help get wins in at least 2 close games this year. That really killed the ability/flow of the last 4 mins last year as teams would not be shy at fouling and putting us at the line.

The team is most certainly better than last year (in some ways quite a bit). I had high hopes for the new guards that they would at least be solid ball handlers. However, the turnovers and decision making is proving to be suspect, which will cost us some close games. And no, Ben, Christie is not a PG. Don't cram a square peg in round hole. Just play to his strengths and let him hang around the perimeter and shoot.
 

I don’t believe our non-conference gives us a true barometer of what the gophers are. MIZZOU is a bad SEC team (projected to finish almost dead last in the conference this year) and San Fran is projected to finish 3rd in the WCC (barely edging out Loyola Marymount). Everyone else we have our will play, we should kill. So when we have games like last night…we should. It doesn’t mean anything.

My prediction for the B10 is that our guards will get us killed. College basketball is a guard driven world. The gophers, as currently constructed are a big man lead team (Payne and Garcia). Without Payne and Garcia in the only relevant game recently (San Fran), the Gophers almost wouldn’t have scored. The guards are not quick at P5 level, they lack elite dribbling skills, and they make bone-headed passes leading to turnovers / easy transition points the other way. Further on the guards, two of them (Mitchell and Hawkins) are absolute defensive liabilities. Hawkins will get put in non-stop pick and rolls and ultimately have to guard a big man down low, or just be posted up by a guard who is average height. While many think Carrington is a good defender, there are multiple instances every game where he gets burned. He really can only guard small 3s.
*Christie is a shooter, but I think the B10 will be a struggle for him this year as we have no other real guards to shoulder the load, so teams can focus on taking away his shot while on the floor

Forwards: we don’t really have the ability to stretch the floor.
- Ihnen is easy to guard as he is so slow with the ball and rarely looks to drive. Unless wide-open, he does nothing
-Fox can finish a wide-open dunk but other than that, little to no threat from outside of 4 feet
-JOJ: decent shooter on low volume, but he disappears for huge chunks of games. Poor defender but can sometimes stretch the floor and attack

Centers:
Garcia- very good at college level, but struggles defensively against good bigs
-Payne: turnover machine, has been pretty dominant against low level competition (as expected). Needs to hammer out free throw issue. Still a nightmare more than 4 feet from the hoop and not a threat

If the gophers lose either Garcia or Payne to an injury for any time, they are screwed. As they don’t have the guard depth / talent to run a 4 guard / small ball system, and they don’t have the depth to really fill in after Payne/Garcia.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I think that a lot of fans - including myself - are just so beaten down from the last 2+ years that it's really hard to believe in this team.

they play a good half, or even a good game, and it looks promising. and then they fall apart they way they did against Missouri or San Fran.

there is no reservoir of good will left. one bad turnover - or a 4-minute scoring drought - and most of us see disaster looming.

So this team has to earn our trust again. and it won't be easy. they need to gut out tough games - show us they can finish games - show us they can avoid the 'black hole' scoring droughts - show us improvement - and win some games.

if the Gophers can put together a string of solid games, then maybe more of us can at least start to have some hope. but it's on the team to win us back. and it won't be easy.
Click to expand...
Excellent post!
 

The attempts to churn interest out of the sludge of apathy that is left in this fan base is admirable, however I don't see this team exceeding 4 wins, mostly because of in-game decision-making on the parts of everyone involved, coaches and players. The conference requires a higher level of focus, and capability than this team has demonstrated. The MIZZOU and USF games demonstrated that. Don't be fooled by last night's game against UNO.
 

Zeppelin Gopher said:
I think the talent and depth is there to get to 8 or 9 B1G wins...but like everyone else, have absolutely zero faith in the coaching and adjustments that will be needed to get us there.

Random thought- JOJ is being criminally underutilized. He's the best athlete and finisher on the team, can create his own shot, and has made himself into a solid 3pt shooter, especially from the corners (albeit on a low volume). Still needs to work on defense and rebounding but the potential is there for a really good B1G combo forward.
Click to expand...
Agree on joj. Love his game.
 

I hope to be proven wrong, I just don't see a lot of scoring once the defenses improve in conference.
Garcia will get his of course, and pp will do well too.
Christie will put up some good games.

That's where it falls off imo.
 

Who are the Gophers going to beat? 20 time underdogs may get us a couple wins on a night or two we can't miss.
ESPN gives us a 14% chance to beat Ohio State and a 41% chance vs Nebraska. Nebraska is one of our better chances for a win but they could beat us convincingly as well. Nebraska has better players.
 

If I take any inherent optimism or pessimism out of my answer and think of this objectively, the answer is......I have no idea.

How many average to above average big ten players are on this team?
 

When I squint, I see a much more athletic team than previous seasons and some guys capable of playing guard/wing.

If the O/U on Big 10 wins was 5, I wouldn't hammer the under.
 

golfing18now said:
If I take any inherent optimism or pessimism out of my answer and think of this objectively, the answer is......I have no idea.

How many average to above average big ten players are on this team?
Click to expand...
I'd say 2 (Garcia and Payne). Good Christie is better than average. Bad Christie is below average.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
When I squint, I see a much more athletic team than previous seasons and some guys capable of playing guard/wing.

If the O/U on Big 10 wins was 5, I wouldn't hammer the under.
Click to expand...
I would probably bet the under...I just don't see us being better than a 3-4 win team. Even if I believed the team had the intestinal fortitude to put up a fight (and I do not) I don't think they have the horses to beat most teams. I don't even think the Big Ten is all that amazing...I just have zero faith this team can win a game when their backs are against the wall.

The team may be more talented, but I don't think that makes them better. I hope I am wrong but I just don't see it. This seems like one of those teams we see every year that "no one wants to play" yet everyone finds a way to beat.
 


Dave H said:
I would probably bet the under...I just don't see us being better than a 3-4 win team. Even if I believed the team had the intestinal fortitude to put up a fight (and I do not) I don't think they have the horses to beat most teams. I don't even think the Big Ten is all that amazing...I just have zero faith this team can win a game when their backs are against the wall.

The team may be more talented, but I don't think that makes them better. I hope I am wrong but I just don't see it. This seems like one of those teams we see every year that "no one wants to play" yet everyone finds a way to beat.
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Gun to my head, I would bet the under as well. I just wouldn't hammer it.
 

I'll say we win 3/4 B1G games and Johnson is fired at the end of the year. We are improved, yes, but in the grand scheme of things, still not a good team, and project to finish last in the league yet again. It's not like we are even playing that good this year. We've regressed in KenPom since the start of the season. Our best win is 296 in KenPom. The only "good" thing is we are blowing out these awful teams instead of winning by less than 5 like we did a lot last season.
 

All kinds of metrics are brought out to give people an idea of how the team will perform, then we are reminded that we play the games to prove or disprove the validity of the metrics. So the question for this season is how likely are the Gophers going to disprove the negative metrics and meet, or exceed, the positive metrics?

The previous 6-8 years has shown us a program that doesn't meet their positive metrics and magnifies their negative metrics. There is no indication that this year will be an outlier regarding that kind of performance.
 



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