Thoughts on team as we head into Big Ten games

[formerlybis]

Ah. NCAA.com. The velveeta of basketball analytics sites….

 

[fan of Ray Williams]

Ah. NCAA.com. The velveeta of basketball analytics sites….

Are you referring to what I posted?

 

[Cayman]

NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Offensive Efficiency | TeamRankings.com

NCAA Basketball offensive efficiency, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

#33 today in offensive efficiency

NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Defensive Efficiency | TeamRankings.com

NCAA Basketball defensive efficiency, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

#39 today in defensive efficiency

Not attempting to convince you.

I'm not sure the site explicitly states it, but I think their offensive efficiency metric is just points per possession (and defensive efficiency is also probably just raw defensive points per possession). The number given for Minnesota is 1.118, and I think points per possession are usually in the vicinity of 1.000, if you hit roughly half your 2's, a third of your 3's, and then boost your efficiency by getting to the free throw line. About 80% of the teams shown here have an offensive efficiency rating between 0.900 and 1.100. If these are just raw points per possession stats, then it is the sort of metric that could be juiced by playing a weak schedule.

For instance, Illinois' offensive efficiency ranks 80th, but they've played Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, and Marquette, who are all currently top 15 in kenpom right now. Kenpom gives Illinois the #28 offense.

I would be more inclined to trust kenpom, which has us around #90 right now. I think we started the season around #120, so there has been upward movement there.

 

[fan of Ray Williams]

I would be more inclined to trust kenpom, which has us around #90 right now. I think we started the season around #120, so there has been upward movement there.

Understood, Cayman. Was simply giving a snapshot of the games played up to this time last year with the games this year as they appeared on this site. Where the Gophers were sitting on this site last year after x amount of games to where they are this year. The site isn't by any means skewed towards Minnesota. It's obviously a betting site. It presently gives the Gophers a 1% chance of making the tournament. Has them projected at 7.4 wins and 12.6 losses in conference. Overall 16.2 wins and 14.8 losses.
Minnesota is sitting at 89 on Kenpom and 86 on this site.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

It presently gives the Gophers a 1% chance of making the tournament. Has them projected at 7.4 wins and 12.6 losses in conference. Overall 16.2 wins and 14.8 losses.
Minnesota is sitting at 89 on Kenpom and 86 on this site.

And the Gophers are 78th on Sports Reference's ratings. So, these three sites rate the Gophers similarly among the 362 D1 basketball programs. The moral of the story is that most of these sites correlate together so arguments about which one is superior are pretty trivial. If Sagarin was still doing his college basketball rankings this season, the Gophers' rating probably would be within this range as well.

 

[fan of Ray Williams]

And the Gophers are 78th on Sports Reference's ratings. So, these three sites rate the Gophers similarly among the 362 D1 basketball programs. The moral of the story is that most of these sites correlate together so arguments about which one is superior are pretty trivial. If Sagarin was still doing his college basketball rankings this season, the Gophers' rating probably would be within this range as well.

My suggestion to some, would be to go to the site you favor, take the Gopher games up to Dec 17th of 2022. Look at what the numbers are. Then compare those numbers with this year’s thus far. Like to know the results. See how it pans out. I do realize that last year’s schedule will make a difference.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

My suggestion to some, would be to go to the site you favor, take the Gopher games up to Dec 17th of 2022. Look at what the numbers are. Then compare those numbers with this year’s thus far. Like to know the results. See how it pans out. I do realize that last year’s schedule will make a difference.

Well, my message was only that most of these rating sites correlate together so there often isn't a big difference depending on which measure you use. As far as whether the Gophers are better than last year, I don't see a good argument that they aren't. First of all, just simply employ the eye test. Secondly, look at statistical performance measures. Sure, you would expect measures to be better this year because of the number of lowly teams in the schedule but this team has performed much better against crappy teams this year than they did last year. Finally, they are much higher rated by the indexes and those consider strength of schedule.

The central question is "how much better are they?" Are they good enough to finish from 6 through 10th place in the Big Ten? I don't know yet but, unlike last year, hoping for a decent finish doesn't seem like hoping against hope.

 

[formerlybis]

Well, my message was only that most of these rating sites correlate together so there often isn't a big difference depending on which measure you use. As far as whether the Gophers are better than last year, I don't see a good argument that they aren't. First of all, just simply employ the eye test. Secondly, look at statistical performance measures. Sure, you would expect measures to be better this year because of the number of lowly teams in the schedule but this team has performed much better against crappy teams this year than they did last year. Finally, they are much higher rated by the indexes and those consider strength of schedule.

The central question is "how much better are they?" Are they good enough to finish from 6 through 10th place in the Big Ten? I don't know yet but, unlike last year, hoping for a decent finish doesn't seem like hoping against hope.

There are sites that are serious about making valid comparisons that adjust for the level of competition. These same sites often show predicted point spreads and scores that mirror what Vegas puts out in its opening lines (which subsequently changes based on where the money goes).

Ncaa.com is not one of those sites.

But to the question of whether the Gophers are better, I say it looks like maybe yes. But they have faced the worst noncon schedule in all of college basketball (kenpom #362), and only one true away game so far (which they lost convincingly) and one other away from home (which they also lost convincingly). Still, it is correct that they "look" better. Until real games against real teams come along, though, I'll reserve judgment.

 

[MNVCGUY]

There are sites that are serious about making valid comparisons that adjust for the level of competition. These same sites often show predicted point spreads and scores that mirror what Vegas puts out in its opening lines (which subsequently changes based on where the money goes).

Ncaa.com is not one of those sites.

But to the question of whether the Gophers are better, I say it looks like maybe yes. But they have faced the worst noncon schedule in all of college basketball (kenpom #362), and only one true away game so far (which they lost convincingly) and one other away from home (which they also lost convincingly). Still, it is correct that they "look" better. Until real games against real teams come along, though, I'll reserve judgment.

I don't think there is any doubt at all that this team is better than last year's team. The only debates are how much better and how many more wins it will translate to.

Just look at the 2 Big Ten games played to this point. Last year they lost by 19 at Purdue and by 15 at home against Michigan.

This year they lost by 10 on the road at Ohio State in a game where they pulled with in 6 points late in the second half and won by 11 at home against Nebraska in a game where Minnesota completely dominated the second half and essentially played the entire game without its best player.

The non-conf schedule has been soft and this team has shown some real inconsistency in play to this point.....but head to head against each other, this year's team crushes last year's team.

 

[fan of Ray Williams]

There are sites that are serious about making valid comparisons that adjust for the level of competition. These same sites often show predicted point spreads and scores that mirror what Vegas puts out in its opening lines (which subsequently changes based on where the money goes).

Ncaa.com is not one of those sites.

But to the question of whether the Gophers are better, I say it looks like maybe yes. But they have faced the worst noncon schedule in all of college basketball (kenpom #362), and only one true away game so far (which they lost convincingly) and one other away from home (which they also lost convincingly). Still, it is correct that they "look" better. Until real games against real teams come along, though, I'll reserve judgment.

How about if we do this, formerlybis

Go to T-Rank (one of the sites you deem as acceptable) and see that on Dec 18th of last season the Gophers were at 240 in their rankings.
Today they sit at 91 on the same site.
Then their ADJOE ranking was 262 of all the teams. Their ADJDE was 193 of all the teams.
Today they sit at 93 of all the teams in ADJOE and 97 of all the teams in ADJDE

Not saying the Gophers will be any good compared to the rest of the BIG, simply saying they are better thus far this year then they were last year at this time.

edit: if you want

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[formerlybis]

How about if we do this, formerlybis

Go to T-Rank (one of the sites you deem as acceptable) and see that on Dec 18th of last season the Gophers were at 240 in their rankings.
Today they sit at 91 on the same site.
Then their ADJOE ranking was 262 of all the teams. Their ADJDE was 193 of all the teams.
Today they sit at 93 of all the teams in ADJOE and 97 of all the teams in ADJDE

Not saying the Gophers will be any good compared to the rest of the BIG, simply saying they are better thus far this year then they were last year at this time.

edit: if you want

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

yes. I was having a negative reaction to the notion that the Gophers much higher ranked on both offense and defense than what the real sites were saying.