Thoughts on % chance that we can attend 2021 games at TCF, let's see predictions

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Totally maroon-colored glasses and say 100%...at least for those who can prove a vaccination.

Not being political, vaxxer or anti-vaxxer, or whatever...just think this is where we're headed.

I'm a 1c so hopefully my shot or shots come to me by September. "Unfortunately" (;)) I'll offer Mrs. Billd is healthier than I am so she'll very likely be after me.

Probably for the OTB as an ironic aside, out of the blue an opportunity to travel an hour outside The Cities opened up for only one guaranteed Moderna shot. It had to be the next day and I just decided not to try and pull it off. Literally the next day I learned the one-dose Moderna was actually very effective...not as good as 2 doses for Pfeizer and Moderna...but really worth it.

If fate knocks again I'll answer.

In the meantime Go Bucs!
 

MplsGopher said:
Why not? If we're really out of the woods, and say 70-80% have been vaccinated, I see no reason to enforcing distancing requirements.

Would assume no mask requirements either. (of course, if you want to wear one that's your own choice)


We have to get back to normal life, at some point.
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I just don’t think you will see a 70-80% vax rate and we will continue to see enough cases to where it makes the decision makers uneasy.
I believe there will be fans in the seats but I still think they will limit the attendance numbers. To what extent I don’t know.
 

Whytetale said:
Get my 2nd shot on Feb 24th. I'm good to go! RTB!!!
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I wish I can get a shot.

My Covid doctor told me to wait on the vaccination until my post hospitalization follow up later this this month. Scarring in my lungs scares me. I may have permanent acute respiratory syndrome (ARS).

It is almost four months since my first day in the Covid ICU where I was put in a coma.

My FMLA has expired since I started it before my wife died of cancer. Retirement may be the only option.

Will I have to rely on an oxygen concentrator for the rest of my life? I am taking it one day at a time, one step at a time.

My stress from lack of sleep and extreme grief over the death of my wife a month before made me very vulnerable for Covid. According to the doctors, grief can make you immune compromise. I used to run. I exercised regularly, and watched what I ate.

I was wish I was gone to join my wife when I awoke from my coma. But, then the thought of leaving behind my kids and grandkids overpowered me with an even greater grief.

I am unable to return to work since October and rely on an oxygen concentrator to breath. I am a "long hauler" suffering from multiple symptoms:

Coughing
Constant upper body debilitating pain, shoulder joints & muscles pain, arm rotator
Pain and aches in my thighs
Chest pain and tightness even when not coughing
Shortness of breath
Lost of sense of smell, and some blunted sense of taste
Brain Fog
Difficulty sleeping

Pretty much I am home bound, and is scared to go anywhere except to my daughter's house. I fear reinfection from the variant.

The furthest thing on my mind is being able to go to a Gophers game again. However, I am determined to do it someday.

Illness has a way of putting your life in perspective.
 
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Going to guess this will fully depend on the math at the time and whatever the current R0 of COVID is (estimates of this have been all over the board (ranging from the mid 2s to 5.7) coupled with the vaccination percentages in the state. If we do a reasonably good job rolling out our vaccination programs (it should get faster over time with increased infrastructure, and hopefully people being willing to be vaccinated), I would hope by the time football is starting we are right around 75%. If that's the case, I'd expect we will allow fans in the stands in some capacity. Would imagine this year will be one of more limited capacity (and TBH, bet the U would just charge higher prices per ticket, knowing those that want to go will pay and they'll make the same amount of money, but that's a discussion for another board) but would be shocked if there's no fans in the stands unless the COVID mutations come hot and heavy with increased lethality/less effectiveness of vaccines against them. The money will be too alluring for cash-strapped athletic departments.
 

Hang in there Hungman. Thanks for the update. Most people don't have clue what happens to those who get the tough side of Covid. They think you get, stay away from people for a couple weeks and that is it.
 


vaccinate everyone over 70 and this thing has a weaker impact that a heavy influenza year. Healthy young people were never at serious risk from this disease.
 

LesBolstad said:
Well the statistics says they (WI) have less hospitalizations and deaths per population than MN so the answer is yes. Maybe they won't want to attend due to our virus mishandling.

Deaths per 100k thru 2/3/21:
View attachment 11602
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No idea where you got your figures, but the CDC statistics, updated every day, pretty much confirm you're a blowhard who isn't nearly as bright as he thinks he is.

Both Minnesota and Wisconsin have the same number of deaths per 100K' They both have 112. BTW, Iowa sits at 160. ND is at 187. SD is at 203.

Total cases is also revealing per 100K.
Minnesota has 8,267. Wisc. has 10,286. Iowa has 10,254.
ND is at 12,874. SD is at 12,315.

Obviously, it's a lot more complicated than some some clown throwing out a couple numbers because he doesn't like being told how to act.. Seems like there is a correlation between mask wearing and cases. The best explanation I've seen as to why Mn and Wisc have the same death rate even though Wisc has had more cases is that Minnesota did a poorer job managing the outbreaks in nursing homes last spring.
 

Back to Football Attendance:

as others have said, it will depend on the rate of vaccinations. As of Feb 4, 9.5% of MN residents have received at least one shot.

If they can get that figure to 70 or 75% by this Fall, I would think that they will allow at least some fans in stands.

Let's say 50% capacity for the season opener. If things look good, maybe 75% by the end of the season. I don't think we'll see 100% capacity this year.

AND - even if they did open it up and say you could have 100% attendance - I think some people would stay away due to the old "overabundance of caution."

Yes, some people would be perfectly willing to sit in a (fairly) crowded stadium, and stand in lines in the concourse to get a hot dog or take a leak.

But, it will take time for everyone to re-acclimate to "normal" conditions.

So, bottom line, I will go on record as predicting that the largest crowd at TCF this season will be under 40,000 people - either through government decree or by people just staying away.

If you're not 100% sure you want to attend a game in person - and pay those ticket prices - the couch and the 60" 4-K TV seem like a d*mn good alternative.
 

hungan1 said:
I wish I can get a shot.

My Covid doctor told me to wait on the vaccination until my post hospitalization follow up later this this month. Scarring in my lungs scares me. I may have permanent acute respiratory syndrome (ARS).

It is almost four months since my first day in the Covid ICU were I was put in a coma.

My FMLA has expired since I started it before my wife died of cancer. Retirement may be the only option.

Will I have to rely on an oxygen concentrator for the rest of my life? I am taking it one day at a time, one step at a time.

My stress from lack of sleep and extreme grief over the death of my wife a month before made me very vulnerable for Covid. According to the doctors, grief can make you immune compromise. I used to run. I exercise regularly, and watched what I eat.

I was wish I was gone to join my wife when I awoke from my coma. But, then the thought of leaving behind my kids and grandkids overpowered me with an even greater grief.

I am unable to return to work since October and rely on an oxygen concentrator to breath. I am a "long hauler" suffering from multiple symptoms:

Coughing
Constant upper body debilitating pain, shoulder joints & muscles pain, arm rotator
Pain and aches in my thighs
Chest pain and tightness even when not coughing
Shortness of breath
Lost of sense of smell, and some blunted sense of taste
Brain Fog
Difficulty sleeping

Pretty much I am home bound, and is scared to go anywhere except to my daughter's house. I fear reinfection from the variant.

The furthest thing on my mind is being able to go to a Gophers game again. However, I am determined to do it someday.

Illness has a way of putting your life in perspective.
Click to expand...

God Bless you and your family and so sorry for all the hardships you've all had to endure.
 



hungan1 said:
We don't know what the nasty variants will do. Consequently, we have to wait until the end of summer to get a better answer.
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My layperson's guess: these variants are more contagious, but not more deadly, in the sense of a person who gets an infection of the old version and these new versions would have an equal probability of death. They are more deadly in the sense of it's a pretty locked in ratio of infected to death, and they infect more people.

We will see, of course.

The good news, as someone else was explaining in another thread, is that this virus has to use its spike protein to get into a human cell, and the vaccines target that protein, to gum up the works and prevent/reduce infection. So if the virus mutates to evade that ... then it has also lost its ability to enter the cell.

But evolutionary pressure can lead to weird things happening. Cross your fingers.
 

paulser21 said:
I just don’t think you will see a 70-80% vax rate and we will continue to see enough cases to where it makes the decision makers uneasy.
I believe there will be fans in the seats but I still think they will limit the attendance numbers. To what extent I don’t know.
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Certainly possible. I hope not, but of course I'm sure everyone does too.
 

GoldenRodents said:
Healthy young people were never at serious risk from this disease.
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Very easy to find examples of healthy young people who have died from this disease.

Let's leave it at that in this thread/on the football board, please.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
But, it will take time for everyone to re-acclimate to "normal" conditions.

So, bottom line, I will go on record as predicting that the largest crowd at TCF this season will be under 40,000 people - either through government decree or by people just staying away.

If you're not 100% sure you want to attend a game in person - and pay those ticket prices - the couch and the 60" 4-K TV seem like a d*mn good alternative.
Click to expand...
Valid point, but I would hope the AD would drop ticket prices or maybe even open up more of the stadium to single-game tickets, for this coming fall, to encourage more people who are OK with the risks to come enjoy a game.
 




hungan1 said:
The Iowa Governor just rescinded the states' mask mandate...

www.npr.org

A Rocky Road On The Way To Herd Immunity For COVID-19

At least 70% of people will need to be immune from the coronavirus before COVID-19 can recede through a process known as herd immunity. Vaccines can play a role. But reaching the goal won't be easy.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
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That article is about herd immunity Hungan not Iowa. Btw- hope you’re doing well.
 

hungan1 said:
I wish I can get a shot.

My Covid doctor told me to wait on the vaccination until my post hospitalization follow up later this this month. Scarring in my lungs scares me. I may have permanent acute respiratory syndrome (ARS).

It is almost four months since my first day in the Covid ICU where I was put in a coma.

My FMLA has expired since I started it before my wife died of cancer. Retirement may be the only option.

Will I have to rely on an oxygen concentrator for the rest of my life? I am taking it one day at a time, one step at a time.

My stress from lack of sleep and extreme grief over the death of my wife a month before made me very vulnerable for Covid. According to the doctors, grief can make you immune compromise. I used to run. I exercised regularly, and watched what I ate.

I was wish I was gone to join my wife when I awoke from my coma. But, then the thought of leaving behind my kids and grandkids overpowered me with an even greater grief.

I am unable to return to work since October and rely on an oxygen concentrator to breath. I am a "long hauler" suffering from multiple symptoms:

Coughing
Constant upper body debilitating pain, shoulder joints & muscles pain, arm rotator
Pain and aches in my thighs
Chest pain and tightness even when not coughing
Shortness of breath
Lost of sense of smell, and some blunted sense of taste
Brain Fog
Difficulty sleeping

Pretty much I am home bound, and is scared to go anywhere except to my daughter's house. I fear reinfection from the variant.

The furthest thing on my mind is being able to go to a Gophers game again. However, I am determined to do it someday.

Illness has a way of putting your life in perspective.
Click to expand...
So sorry Hungan that you’re continuing to feel the ill effects of this dastardly plague. You continue to be it my thoughts and hopes for a return to as close to normalcy as possible.
 

hungan1 said:
The Iowa Governor just rescinded the states' mask mandate...

www.npr.org

A Rocky Road On The Way To Herd Immunity For COVID-19

At least 70% of people will need to be immune from the coronavirus before COVID-19 can recede through a process known as herd immunity. Vaccines can play a role. But reaching the goal won't be easy.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
Click to expand...
Iowa never had a state ordered mask mandate. Some cities did. She removed restrictions on restaurants.
 

This one just popped up. Many more as well. We can go on forever with this that is foolish. Agree with comments above. However fed up with comments that aren't true. Copy and paste blurb.

In the early hours of Feb. 2, 9-year-old Makenzie Gongora of San Antonio, Texas died unexpectedly after being tucked into bed by her mother, Kristle Gongora. In interviews with TODAY, members from both sides of her family say she died three days after testing positive for COVID-19.
 

Chances are good. 50% capacity though, which will remind us of the Tracy Claeys era - good football, small crowd.
 


As long as I can just buy Red Baron pizza to get tickets, I don't care about capacity.
 

Honest question-isn't 50% capacity ABOUT what we expect over the course of a season anyway? I know 2019 had a couple sellouts but those are few and far between.

If the Gophers allow 25,000 fans you're not losing a ton of attendance. Maybe some tickets sold/distributed but I'd guess a lot of games have ~30,000 fans actually going. And if you're wasting your time/energy to get to a 1/2 capacity game you're more like to actually go. I think.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Honest question-isn't 50% capacity ABOUT what we expect over the course of a season anyway? I know 2019 had a couple sellouts but those are few and far between.

If the Gophers allow 25,000 fans you're not losing a ton of attendance. Maybe some tickets sold/distributed but I'd guess a lot of games have ~30,000 fans actually going. And if you're wasting your time/energy to get to a 1/2 capacity game you're more like to actually go. I think.
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TCF Bank Stadium Attendance​
Capacity: 50,805 (2009-13; 2016-pres.) 52,525 (2014-15)​
YearAtt.Gm.Largest CrowdAvg.
2009355,6357Seven Tied (50,805)50,805
2010346,5937Iowa (50,805)49,513
2011333,9967Miami (Ohio) (49,950)47,714
2012326,4567Syracuse (50,805)46,637
2013334,5817Wisconsin (53,090)47,797
2014335,0567Purdue (51,241)47,865
2015366,4847TCU (54,147)52,355
2016306,6977Iowa (49,145)43,814
2017310,5067Michigan State (47,541)44,358
2018265,4077Iowa (48,199)37,915
2019323,3307Wisconsin (53,756)46,190
 

100%. Covid will have nothing to do with attendance and neither will the governor. The performance will have a bigger impact. I can see no restrictions except for concessions.
 

gopherjay said:
100%. Covid will have nothing to do with attendance and neither will the governor. The performance will have a bigger impact. I can see no restrictions except for concessions.
Click to expand...

I wonder ... maybe COVID plays a part.... some pent up demand out there maybe?
 

Unregistered User said:
TCF Bank Stadium Attendance​
Capacity: 50,805 (2009-13; 2016-pres.) 52,525 (2014-15)​
YearAtt.Gm.Largest CrowdAvg.
2009355,6357Seven Tied (50,805)50,805
2010346,5937Iowa (50,805)49,513
2011333,9967Miami (Ohio) (49,950)47,714
2012326,4567Syracuse (50,805)46,637
2013334,5817Wisconsin (53,090)47,797
2014335,0567Purdue (51,241)47,865
2015366,4847TCU (54,147)52,355
2016306,6977Iowa (49,145)43,814
2017310,5067Michigan State (47,541)44,358
2018265,4077Iowa (48,199)37,915
2019323,3307Wisconsin (53,756)46,190
Click to expand...

Those are tickets sold. Not attendance. Someone on Twitter or GH use to post ACTUAL in the stadium attendance and it was like 60-70% of tickets sold, roughly.
 

#2Gopher said:
Depends if people work together to prevent the spread. Some will come. Not sure how many based on people. Wisconsin doesn't mask. Should we allow them to come in if they have a problem with Covid and we don't?
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You are a moron! I work in Madison and they have tighter mask restrictions than you do. Do they need them this strict? I say no. Businesses here get fined if employees are caught not wearing masks. Continue on with your ignorance though.
 

Unregistered User said:
TCF Bank Stadium Attendance​
Capacity: 50,805 (2009-13; 2016-pres.) 52,525 (2014-15)​
YearAtt.Gm.Largest CrowdAvg.
2009355,6357Seven Tied (50,805)50,805
2010346,5937Iowa (50,805)49,513
2011333,9967Miami (Ohio) (49,950)47,714
2012326,4567Syracuse (50,805)46,637
2013334,5817Wisconsin (53,090)47,797
2014335,0567Purdue (51,241)47,865
2015366,4847TCU (54,147)52,355
2016306,6977Iowa (49,145)43,814
2017310,5067Michigan State (47,541)44,358
2018265,4077Iowa (48,199)37,915
2019323,3307Wisconsin (53,756)46,190
Click to expand...

www.startribune.com

Gophers football attendance drop among nation's steepest declines

2018 announced mark was team's lowest since 1992.
www.startribune.com www.startribune.com
 

Cedar Rapids Gopher said:
Iowa never had a state ordered mask mandate. Some cities did. She removed restrictions on restaurants.
Click to expand...
www.forbes.com

Iowa Implements Statewide Mask Mandate In U-Turn, Leaving 13 States Without One

The state’s Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, once called mask mandates “feel good” measures.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

www.desmoinesregister.com

Des Moines' mask mandate remains in place despite Gov. Kim Reynolds lifting Iowa's requirements

Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie was perplexed by the governor's decision on Friday.
www.desmoinesregister.com

 

MNgradinWI said:
You are a moron! I work in Madison and they have tighter mask restrictions than you do. Do they need them this strict? I say no. Businesses here get fined if employees are caught not wearing masks. Continue on with your ignorance though.
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Depends where in WI you are. My parents live in Danbury and they say no one masks up there. " Up there" being anywhere from Spooner to Hayward to Superior.
 

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