Those 10 "Lost Points" vs. Purdue

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Nomellini

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A number of posters have suggested that if Trickett had made that short field goal and if Brown-Stephens had made that easy catch, then the Gophers would have been up 13-10 at the break. I don't think it works that way. If Trickett makes his kick, the next play is a Gopher kickoff and not a scrimmage play for Purdue from their 10-yard line. And the next play is going to take place at a different instant in time. These things mean that the game spins off on a new trajectory. It's a million to one shot for Brown-Stephens to have that same opportunity. There's no telling how the game would have unfolded if Trickett makes his kick. I think this is called something like the The Butterfly Effect. I apologize in advance if this all comes off as sounding pedantic. Thank you.
 

One can play the what if game every single weekend and you can cherry pick plays of both good and bad fortune. It happens the way it happens and it serves no good purpose to dwell on it.

What matters is how the team responds to these situations and clearly it didn't respond very well!
 


Nomellini said:
A number of posters have suggested that if Trickett had made that short field goal and if Brown-Stephens had made that easy catch, then the Gophers would have been up 13-10 at the break. I don't think it works that way. If Trickett makes his kick, the next play is a Gopher kickoff and not a scrimmage play for Purdue from their 10-yard line. And the next play is going to take place at a different instant in time. These things mean that the game spins off on a new trajectory. It's a million to one shot for Brown-Stephens to have that same opportunity. There's no telling how the game would have unfolded if Trickett makes his kick. I think this is called something like the The Butterfly Effect. I apologize in advance if this all comes off as sounding pedantic. Thank you.
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Nothing wrong with pedantry. And no, your post is not pedantic.
 

Nomellini said:
A number of posters have suggested that if Trickett had made that short field goal and if Brown-Stephens had made that easy catch, then the Gophers would have been up 13-10 at the break. I don't think it works that way. If Trickett makes his kick, the next play is a Gopher kickoff and not a scrimmage play for Purdue from their 10-yard line. And the next play is going to take place at a different instant in time. These things mean that the game spins off on a new trajectory. It's a million to one shot for Brown-Stephens to have that same opportunity. There's no telling how the game would have unfolded if Trickett makes his kick. I think this is called something like the The Butterfly Effect. I apologize in advance if this all comes off as sounding pedantic. Thank you.
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No kidding.
If the gophers make a couple simple plays I think they end up winning going away
 



Nomellini said:
A number of posters have suggested that if Trickett had made that short field goal and if Brown-Stephens had made that easy catch, then the Gophers would have been up 13-10 at the break. I don't think it works that way. If Trickett makes his kick, the next play is a Gopher kickoff and not a scrimmage play for Purdue from their 10-yard line. And the next play is going to take place at a different instant in time. These things mean that the game spins off on a new trajectory. It's a million to one shot for Brown-Stephens to have that same opportunity. There's no telling how the game would have unfolded if Trickett makes his kick. I think this is called something like the The Butterfly Effect. I apologize in advance if this all comes off as sounding pedantic. Thank you.
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Yeah, the whole change one play and the result would have been this thing doesn't work because you are 100% correct that everything after the change would have played out differently. The discussion around the missed chip shot field goal and more importantly the dropped TD is that those were massive errors that were on us and cost us points in what was a very tight game.

The main takeaway from games like the one against Purdue is that the team that makes the fewest mistakes tends to come out on top when the teams are pretty evenly matched. We made far too many unforced errors to win that game. Frustrating but it is in the past and there is still a lot of season left to be played.
 

Personally I like to brag that we spotted Auburn 10 points with the turnover and the kickoff runback...and if those had not happened...the Gophers win would have likely been more dominant as we had their number that day.

No doubt though that leaving points on the field is always a potentially mortal wound. Certainly was the case against Purdue. Ouch.
 




Word said:
I really think if MBS doesn't let that touchdown pass go through his hands for the INT we win the game.
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Yep, there were various other miscues but even with all that went wrong, I am convinced that if he catches that ball we win.
 


swingman said:
Only thing worth reviewing from Purdue game:

Bryce Williams had 11 carries for 35 yards
Trey Potts had 9 carries for 13 yards

Gophers aren't going to beat anybody if they can't block and run better than that.
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Certainly not a formula for success but I still think if MBS catches that ball, we win (in spite of poor OL play).
 

Nomellini said:
A number of posters have suggested that if Trickett had made that short field goal and if Brown-Stephens had made that easy catch, then the Gophers would have been up 13-10 at the break. I don't think it works that way. If Trickett makes his kick, the next play is a Gopher kickoff and not a scrimmage play for Purdue from their 10-yard line. And the next play is going to take place at a different instant in time. These things mean that the game spins off on a new trajectory. It's a million to one shot for Brown-Stephens to have that same opportunity. There's no telling how the game would have unfolded if Trickett makes his kick. I think this is called something like the The Butterfly Effect. I apologize in advance if this all comes off as sounding pedantic. Thank you.
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I don't disagree with your premise, but would like to point out Purdue got the ball at the 20 (touchback) after the missed FG, not the 10.

Probably would have got it at the 25 had it been converted, then a KO into the end zone. Perhaps even that 5 yds makes a difference.

4 plays later the Gophers got the ball back with an INT. Drive stalled at the 27, and this time converted the FG.
 



swingman said:
Only thing worth reviewing from Purdue game:

Bryce Williams had 11 carries for 35 yards
Trey Potts had 9 carries for 13 yards

Gophers aren't going to beat anybody if they can't block and run better than that.
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They could beat some people running like that and should have still beaten Purdue running like that
 

One of the stupidest things in sports culture is how pontificators, fans, and even pundits act like changing one play or sequence doesn't also change the rest of the game. Every action has a cause and effect, and if you change one play, the game changes in innumerable ways. The game doesn't exist in a vacuum where the end result is static. Hope that makes sense.
 


Mr. 131 said:
One of the stupidest things in sports culture is how pontificators, fans, and even pundits act like changing one play or sequence doesn't also change the rest of the game. Every action has a cause and effect, and if you change one play, the game changes in innumerable ways. The game doesn't exist in a vacuum where the end result is static. Hope that makes sense.
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Win is a win
Loss is a loss

Gophers lost. Does not really matter how. Just like if they win Saturday it won’t matter how.
 


Nomellini, you make a very valid point that different outcomes from different plays lead to different trajectories and blah blah blah.

But most coaches will tell you, and I definitely agree, that if you keep repeatedly screwing your own self in your own butt, pretty soon you're going to be a loser with your own hemorrhoids.
 

Nomellini said:
A number of posters have suggested that if Trickett had made that short field goal and if Brown-Stephens had made that easy catch, then the Gophers would have been up 13-10 at the break. I don't think it works that way. If Trickett makes his kick, the next play is a Gopher kickoff and not a scrimmage play for Purdue from their 10-yard line. And the next play is going to take place at a different instant in time. These things mean that the game spins off on a new trajectory. It's a million to one shot for Brown-Stephens to have that same opportunity. There's no telling how the game would have unfolded if Trickett makes his kick. I think this is called something like the The Butterfly Effect. I apologize in advance if this all comes off as sounding pedantic. Thank you.
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It's called momentum.
 

Here is an unpopular opinion.....Morgan needs to throw a better ball to MBS in the end zone, yes it still could have been caught......that ball was back shoulder with a lot of zip on it, essentially behind him coming across the middle. And, insult to injury, it hits his trailing shoulder pad and caroms right in the arms of an opponent.
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
Here is an unpopular opinion.....Morgan needs to throw a better ball to MBS in the end zone, yes it still could have been caught......that ball was back shoulder with a lot of zip on it, essentially behind him coming across the middle. And, insult to injury, it hits his trailing shoulder pad and caroms right in the arms of an opponent.
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I hope this isn't an unpopular opinion.
Football has lots of moving pieces. Multiple players can have faults on a play.
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
Here is an unpopular opinion.....Morgan needs to throw a better ball to MBS in the end zone, yes it still could have been caught......that ball was back shoulder with a lot of zip on it, essentially behind him coming across the middle. And, insult to injury, it hits his trailing shoulder pad and caroms right in the arms of an opponent.
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Wait, I thought Morgan had a weak arm and no zip? (not that you were the one that said that)
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
Here is an unpopular opinion.....Morgan needs to throw a better ball to MBS in the end zone, yes it still could have been caught......that ball was back shoulder with a lot of zip on it, essentially behind him coming across the middle. And, insult to injury, it hits his trailing shoulder pad and caroms right in the arms of an opponent.
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Throw wasn't perfect but that drop is on MBS not Morgan. He has to catch that ball and he would be the first person to say that. That is a catch that a D1 WR has to make, he was wide open and the ball hit him in the hands.
 


MNVCGUY said:
Throw wasn't perfect but that drop is on MBS not Morgan. He has to catch that ball and he would be the first person to say that. That is a catch that a D1 WR has to make, he was wide open and the ball hit him in the hands.
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Both players I'm sure will say they can change their best there. Here's hoping they can get on the same wavelength and make that play next time. We may need it.
 

Com_Cool said:
Both players I'm sure will say they can change their best there. Here's hoping they can get on the same wavelength and make that play next time. We may need it.
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Morgan would absolutely admit he could have/should have thrown it better, but expecting perfect throws in college just isn't realistic most of the time.

It is hard to make a perfect throw everytime playing catch in the backyard. Reality is that 2 of the 4 INTs that Morgan has thrown this year should not have been INTs and should have been caught by our guys. The one to MBS against Purdue and the one BSF biffed in one of the earlier games.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Morgan would absolutely admit he could have/should have thrown it better, but expecting perfect throws in college just isn't realistic most of the time.

It is hard to make a perfect throw everytime playing catch in the backyard. Reality is that 2 of the 4 INTs that Morgan has thrown this year should not have been INTs and should have been caught by our guys. The one to MBS against Purdue and the one BSF biffed in one of the earlier games.
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I fully agree. NFL guys throw behind their receivers every game. you and I are in agreement I think.
 

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