The offense down the stretch

[USAF]

Just so I understand, are you are advocating for "shots downfield" in that situation, rather than attempting to run down the clock?

I'm advocating letting the offense win the game, which includes the passing game. Particularly when the opponent's defense takes away the run.

I'm advocating accepting reality...the defense couldn't be trusted, even a little.

And I was responding to the false assertion that the offensive mix didn't change.

BTW, How'd your way work out?

 

[USAF]

To be clear, are you saying that if the defense is "stacking the box", the offense should automatically go to the pass — no matter what the game situation? We should not attempt to run time off the clock, because the "box is stacked"?

You know what runs time off the clock? Holding into the ball with first downs.

 

[USAF]

To be clear, are you saying that if the defense is "stacking the box", the offense should automatically go to the pass — no matter what the game situation? We should not attempt to run time off the clock, because the "box is stacked"?

To be clear, are you saying the defense--which we agree can't be trusted--should be trusted with a the game?

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

The offense is putting up a bazillion points.

I really worry that demanding bazillion + 7 leads to play calling that is actually a net negative. Not to say there aren't places to improve somewhat but i'm not sure that changes that seem obvious actually play out like folks think....

 

[noamfromm]

Gophs ran the same set and mix of plays in the 4th as they we running all game, so I guess you are saying they were conservative all game.

I responded to this before and I'll say the same thing again. The mix of plays was not the same because the circumstances were different. We ran into even boxes in the first three quarters, while we ran into plus boxes in the fourth. On the Gopher Gridiron Radio podcast, Derek Burns nicely illustrates the point about how we had success running against even boxes and then when Maryland countered by bring a safety in the box we got them in the passing game. This starts at the 6:30 mark. The point you keep missing, intentionally or otherwise, is that if the play mix was the same we wouldn't have been running into the plus boxes in the fourth.

 

[noamfromm]

What would you say toa hypothetical PJ devil's advocate response of:

"We're up 17, and even 10, and our defense can't win the game for us? Unacceptable. Defense needs to step up. We need to be able to depend on our defense to make plays. Offense went out and got the work done to win the game. Defense needs to get it done."

Mpls, I think you may be on the right track. In the first game we played against Buffalo Fleck said that win or lose we were going to run inside zone because we needed to learn the base play of our offense. Thus I could see him using the same logic where he was going to put the defense in the position to win or lose the game.

 

[GFBfan]

To be clear, are you saying that if the defense is "stacking the box", the offense should automatically go to the pass — no matter what the game situation? We should not attempt to run time off the clock, because the "box is stacked"?

Nope.
But when you get stuffed in the first series of that, why wouldn't you the second series and then when you get stuffed in the second series and now the game is close, why wouldn't you in the third one. They did throw one to a wide open Bateman. They should have kept doing that.

 

[RolGnav]

To be clear, are you saying the defense--which we agree can't be trusted--should be trusted with a the game?

No point in trying to explain, as they don't even get it.

Like I said, everyone and their dog knows the defense can not stop a parked car... yet Coach hopes to run the clock down against a stacked box the whole 4th quarter and rely on the defense to stop them?

 

[MplsGopher]

Well, in the press conf today, PJ laid it out perhaps a bit simpler than we've all been (over)analyzing. He said something like "100% on my, 100% my fault. I wanted to run the clock out, thought we could get 2 yards". The question was specifically on the 3rd & 2 of the last of the three failed 4th qtr drives.

 

[PMWinSTP]

No point in trying to explain, as they don't even get it.

Like I said, everyone and their dog knows the defense can not stop a parked car... yet Coach hopes to run the clock down against a stacked box the whole 4th quarter and rely on the defense to stop them?

You really need to go back and watch Gophs offensive possessions in the four quarter. I counted one play where the box was stacked, otherwise MD played the same defensive sets it had for the first three quarters.

 

[Taji34]

Well, in the press conf today, PJ laid it out perhaps a bit simpler than we've all been (over)analyzing. He said something like "100% on my, 100% my fault. I wanted to run the clock out, thought we could get 2 yards". The question was specifically on the 3rd & 2 of the last of the three failed 4th qtr drives.

So PJ is saying it was his call to go conservative and try to run down the clock. This tells me perhaps Sanford and/or Simon were saying that we should go for more points and pass more since Maryland were all in to stop the run and PJ essentially Vetoed the idea.

 

[MplsGopher]

It was PJ's response to the first question (from Greder), starts at 1:56

 

[MGGopher]

You really need to go back and watch Gophs offensive possessions in the four quarter. I counted one play where the box was stacked, otherwise MD played the same defensive sets it had for the first three quarters.

I haven't watched back (and salute you for doing so), but Derek Burns on GG podcast pointed out that Maryland wasn't necessarily loading the box presnap, but they were directing one or both safeties to fly into the box immediately at the snap. I'm sure the offensive staff was aware of exactly what their numbers were. They obviously thought they could get first downs by running, even against those numbers. Obviously didn't work out.

 

[MGGopher]

It was PJ's response to the first question (from Greder), starts at 1:56

Thanks for sharing. I can't stomach PJ's pressers right now. Any other nuggets in there? Thoughts on why our defense is the worst in the country (worse than UMass and New Mexico) and how it might improve?

 

[Johnnyboy18]

So PJ is saying it was his call to go conservative and try to run down the clock. This tells me perhaps Sanford and/or Simon were saying that we should go for more points and pass more since Maryland were all in to stop the run and PJ essentially Vetoed the idea.

Even it was their call it's never a good idea for a head coach to throw their coordinator under the bus like that.

 

[RolGnav]

Doesn't matter who's call it was, as it just goes to show that it was a coaching loss. Everyone knows our defense stinks, so how can we win? We have to use the only Strength we have, which should be our offense. And this blame on Walker thing... Yes he missed an easy kick, but it's not like we would have won, as he was just kicking for a tie, Maryland would be right back on offense... against our porous defense. Same thing all over again. You go for two and try to win it with the Offense!

 

[PMWinSTP]

Doesn't matter who's call it was, as it just goes to show that it was a coaching loss. Everyone knows our defense stinks, so how can we win? We have to use the only Strength we have, which should be our offense. And this blame on Walker thing... Yes he missed an easy kick, but it's not like we would have won, as he was just kicking for a tie, Maryland would be right back on offense... against our porous defense. Same thing all over again. You go for two and try to win it with the Offense!

I'm not gonna give up the defense improving. As others have posted not hard to do from here. Even a mild improvement there changes the win probability in a meaningful way.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

I haven't watched back (and salute you for doing so), but Derek Burns on GG podcast pointed out that Maryland wasn't necessarily loading the box presnap, but they were directing one or both safeties to fly into the box immediately at the snap. I'm sure the offensive staff was aware of exactly what their numbers were. They obviously thought they could get first downs by running, even against those numbers. Obviously didn't work out.

In our version of RPO, isn’t the safeties’ immediately crashing the box a trigger for Tanner to pull the hand-off back and toss to a WR who will have man coverage? It was like in the 4th Q we decided to run even though the trigger to pass occurred. Maybe it isn’t that simple.

 

[PMWinSTP]

I haven't watched back (and salute you for doing so), but Derek Burns on GG podcast pointed out that Maryland wasn't necessarily loading the box presnap, but they were directing one or both safeties to fly into the box immediately at the snap. I'm sure the offensive staff was aware of exactly what their numbers were. They obviously thought they could get first downs by running, even against those numbers. Obviously didn't work out.

Go watch.

 

[Great Plains Gopher]

So far, opponents are averaging 10 yards a play against our defense. Throw the ball.

 

[Desertbobcat]

The biggest mistake of the game was not going for two to win it. Joe Rossi, i would hope, should have communicated to Fleck to go for it cause were not going to stop them. There is a time and place during a game where you got to take a stand and I would hope Rossi tried to. Take your freaking pride out of the equation and do it.
That decision not to go for it cannot be justified in anyway with that defensive unit vs our offensive unit to win the game.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Just checked. Our mix of plays last year, entire season, was 63.5% run, 36.5% pass. We ran the ball on average 43.1 times a game, but the majority of the runs were spread among three backs with Rodney S getting the most touches. Several backs besides Rodney/Mo/Shannon got some touches in 2019. I am a bit surprised at the 2019 allocation favoring run to such a degree, but perhaps it was because the high number yards per completed pass we achieved last year made the allocation feel closer to 50/50. Our average number of runs per game last year (43.1) would be a brutal number to inflict principally on a single running back over the season. In this year’s Maryland game, we ran 49 times and attempted 15 passes, a pretty heavy allocation to the run. But, unlike last year, the brunt of the runs (41) fell to one back. Our cumulative 2020 allocation (Michigan + Maryland) is 91 runs and 46 pass attempts, or 63.5%/36.5%—exactly the cumulative allocation number of 2019.

This thread has been really informative for me. Especially the comments that said we did the same thing in the 4th Q that we did all game, and that Maryland wasn’t stacking the box. What I’ve taken from it is that we ran the ball more in the Maryland game—the entire game—than we do on average, perhaps to keep the ball away from Maryland as long as we could (few clock stoppages) to cover for our ineffective defense. Because we don’t have a trinity of RBs to rotate this year (at least not yet), this arguably led to Mo’s being a little heavy-legged in the crucial final drives of the game. Maybe, maybe not. My conclusion: PJ’s expressed preference for running out the clock in the 4th Q when we have a lead will be tougher this year if we come into the fourth quarter with only one running back who has already handled 35 snaps than if those 35 snaps had been spread among three backs. The Maryland game also showed me that we have three good wide receivers, one less experienced but still strong with good hands. I guess the frustration in this thread is that we seemed to turn away from, rather than to, some of our gifted playmakers in the 4th Q, with in retrospect a predictable result.

 

[MplsGopher]

The 3rd&2 on the last drive starts at 19:23 of this:


We're in 12 personnel, with two TE on the left and a WO on each side. Maryland has their 4 DL plus it looks like the 2 OLB on the LOS, the MLB in normal position, and then looks like both safeties lined up on the TE. When they see it's a run, both safeties charge for the ball carrier, and they are who tackle Mo for a loss. They're both unaccounted for by blockers, because they represent the QB and RB.

If it had been run to the right side, away from the TE and the safeties, who knows. The play before, we did run to the right side and Boe (LG at that point) got beat and that guy made the play for a loss. You can hindsight all day.

 

[PMWinSTP]

Just checked. Our mix of plays last year, entire season, was 63.5% run, 36.5% pass. We ran the ball on average 43.1 times a game, but the majority of the runs were spread among three backs with Rodney S getting the most touches. Several backs besides Rodney/Mo/Shannon got some touches in 2019. I am a bit surprised at the 2019 allocation favoring run to such a degree, but perhaps it was because the high number yards per completed pass we achieved last year made the allocation feel closer to 50/50. Our average number of runs per game last year (43.1) would be a brutal number to inflict principally on a single running back over the season. In this year’s Maryland game, we ran 49 times and attempted 15 passes, a pretty heavy allocation to the run. But, unlike last year, the brunt of the runs (41) fell to one back. Our cumulative 2020 allocation (Michigan + Maryland) is 91 runs and 46 pass attempts, or 63.5%/36.5%—exactly the cumulative allocation number of 2019.

This thread has been really informative for me. Especially the comments that said we did the same thing in the 4th Q that we did all game, and that Maryland wasn’t stacking the box. What I’ve taken from it is that we ran the ball more in the Maryland game—the entire game—than we do on average, perhaps to keep the ball away from Maryland as long as we could (few clock stoppages) to cover for our ineffective defense. Because we don’t have a trinity of RBs to rotate this year (at least not yet), this arguably led to Mo’s being a little heavy-legged in the crucial final drives of the game. Maybe, maybe not. My conclusion: PJ’s expressed preference for running out the clock in the 4th Q when we have a lead will be tougher this year if we come into the fourth quarter with only one running back who has already handled 35 snaps than if those 35 snaps had been spread among three backs. The Maryland game also showed me that we have three good wide receivers, one less experienced but still strong with good hands. I guess the frustration in this thread is that we seemed to turn away from, rather than to, some of our gifted playmakers in the 4th Q, with in retrospect a predictable result.

These two games have been a bit lopsided to the run. Gophs did have three games last year with more than 300 yards rushing, and Morgan's numbers in those games were low.

For Mo, the Michigan game is more like what I think we will see, around 25 carries, with other RBs getting 10-15 additional carries. Should see pass attempts around 25/game.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

So PJ is saying it was his call to go conservative and try to run down the clock. This tells me perhaps Sanford and/or Simon were saying that we should go for more points and pass more since Maryland were all in to stop the run and PJ essentially Vetoed the idea.

Don’t even have to use the pass to go for more points. Just use the pass to get a first down or two in the 4th Q, which extends TOP and adversely changes field position for Maryland if, after a first down or two, we have to punt. Don’t need more points. A couple of timely first downs could well have sealed a victory.