The Matchup With Iowa

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Last year the Gophers moved the ball well and were held/settled to FG on 2 or 3 possessions. The Gophers still should have won the game, but the defense gave up some big plays that were the story of why Iowa one. One of them was an awful job of wrapping up a WR behind the line and then letting him score a TD. The other was letting Charlie Jones get behind coverage and I think Padilla hitting him. The Gophers defense is good, but does have more lapses like this than Iowa's defense. The lapses I think will tell the story as I think the LOS should be pretty even and may even favor Minnesota.
 

Some guy said:
2019 Morgan was really good vs Iowa considering the pass rush and that Johnson dropped a pass in the game winning drive he was leading.
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I was thinking more of the Wisconsin game but freely admit my memory could be off. I was also probably drinking by halftime.
 


Concerns that have not been raised
1. I want AK to start but have reservations, especially on a frigid day with unreliable receivers. Morgan delivers a softer ball that is more often in the body frame of his receivers. AK has the rocket arm but is less accurate. On this bitterly cold, windy day I can see receivers being unable to hold onto his bullet throws that are even slightly outside the body frame. They could easily ricochet for interceptions. TM is like a pitcher whose fastball tops out at 88 mph but usually can hit his spots. AK can hit 95 but with erratic command.
2. The Gopher o-line is great at run blocking but not athletic enough to excel at pass blocking. Iowa's pass rush is at least as good as Penn State's. Even 3rd and 5 will be problematic. With 2 tight ends for max protection, we have to hope one of two pedestrian wide-outs gets open. Can we spare a running back to slip out of the backfield? Will AK be nimble enough to stay upright and make plays?

Hope my practically innate Scandinavian pessimism is unfounded but I say Iowa 16 Minnesota 6
 

cjbfbp said:
Do you think Purdue and Wisconsin didn't understand the above? This isn't an issue of not understanding what to do. Everyone knows what not to do against Iowa. Do you think Iowa was able to create turnovers, blocked kicks, and short fields because their opponents were stupid?
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I looked at highlights from the Purdue and Wisconsin games, specifically at the 4 INTs that were thrown.

Both INT against Purdue were on throws where O'Connell overshot a wide open receiver and the ball ended up going right to an Iowa player.

Against Wisconsin, the pick 6 was a horrible throw by Mertz that allowed the Iowa DB to cut in front of the receiver for an easy INT and clear path to the EZ. The second INT was caused by a great play by the Iowa DB where he was able to tip the ball and another defender was able to catch it.

Iowa has an extremely good defense and if you make a mistake they are going to capitalize on it. If you give their defense and special teams a chance to beat you they will. We will have to play mistake free football and force the Iowa offense to win the game. When we have chances to score we have to come away with points every time.
 


MNVCGUY said:
I looked at highlights from the Purdue and Wisconsin games, specifically at the 4 INTs that were thrown.

Both INT against Purdue were on throws where O'Connell overshot a wide open receiver and the ball ended up going right to an Iowa player.

Against Wisconsin, the pick 6 was a horrible throw by Mertz that allowed the Iowa DB to cut in front of the receiver for an easy INT and clear path to the EZ. The second INT was caused by a great play by the Iowa DB where he was able to tip the ball and another defender was able to catch it.

Iowa has an extremely good defense and if you make a mistake they are going to capitalize on it. If you give their defense and special teams a chance to beat you they will. We will have to play mistake free football and force the Iowa offense to win the game. When we have chances to score we have to come away with points every time.
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Pretty much the case. Both of O'Connell's picks were with the wind. Iowa did a good job of pressuring him, both with the sacks and also the times they just made him throw it a bit early. They had him rattled, as the stats show. He was 20-43 for 168 yards. Averaged just 3.9 yards per pass attempt.

Mertz is just a bad QB against any defense with a pulse.

You all will be shocked at the Iowa offense and wondering how Iowa has managed to win 6 games with it.
 

MNVCGUY said:
We will have to play mistake free football and force the Iowa offense to win the game. When we have chances to score we have to come away with points every time.
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Sure, but we have difficulty doing that against good teams.
 

DodgerHawki said:
You all will be shocked at the Iowa offense and wondering how Iowa has managed to win 6 games with it.
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Everyone who follows Big Ten football closely knows that Iowa has an anemic offense but they've shown that they don't need as many offensive yards as most other teams to win. Their offense last year wasn't so great either but it was good enough to win 10 regular season games. We had 409 yards to their 277 and still lost.
 

cjbfbp said:
Everyone who follows Big Ten football closely knows that Iowa has an anemic offense but they've shown that they don't need as many offensive yards as most other teams to win. Their offense last year wasn't so great either but it was good enough to win 10 regular season games. We had 409 yards to their 277 and still lost.
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They won the game on 3 TD's and each TD was scored on a single huge play that was caused/allowed by a terrible play of a single Gopher defender. (one of them didn't actually score the TD but got them really close)

Still cannot believe the last one, where our guy had him tackled and done .... but no, flips over the top of him (IIRC), their guy goes free and runs all the way for the score.
 



Pompous Elitist said:
I was thinking more of the Wisconsin game but freely admit my memory could be off. I was also probably drinking by halftime.
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I assume he was bad vs Wisconsin because I can’t remember anything good outside the one pass to Bateman
 

Gophers_4life said:
They won the game on 3 TD's and each TD was scored on a single huge play that was caused/allowed by a terrible play of a single Gopher defender. (one of them didn't actually score the TD but got them really close)

Still cannot believe the last one, where our guy had him tackled and done .... but no, flips over the top of him (IIRC), their guy goes free and runs all the way for the score.
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Yes, that was really discouraging. That was the one time last season where I thought the defense let us down. Offensively we were not bad in that game.
 

Some guy said:
I assume he was bad vs Wisconsin because I can’t remember anything good outside the one pass to Bateman
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I know stats don't tell the whole story but here are Morgan's in the 2019 game vs Wisconsin:

20 of 37, 296 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

www.espn.com

Wisconsin 38-17 Minnesota (Nov 30, 2019) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the Wisconsin Badgers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers NCAAF game from November 30, 2019 on ESPN. Includes all passing, rushing and receiving stats.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 

cjbfbp said:
Yes, that was really discouraging. That was the one time last season where I thought the defense let us down. Offensively we were not bad in that game.
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We really need to start fast. And at least be tied after 1.
Each of the last two non Covid games they’ve jumped all over us and then we out played them for 2.5 quarters but their d is just so hard to score touchdowns against
 



short ornery norwegian said:
Here's my answer:

IF the Gophers defense shuts out Iowa's offense,
the Gopher offense still has to score points to win the game.

Both teams have very good defenses.

So, the key (IMHO) is which offense can be more successful against the other team's defense.

to be blunt - I don't think the Gophers can beat Iowa by running 65 or 70% of the time. If the Gophers are not able to pass the ball at least somewhat effectively, I think Iowa wins the game.
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I predict the Gophers run at least 65% of the time, and win the game.
 


RememberMurray said:
I predict the Gophers run at least 65% of the time, and win the game.
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If we run that much, means we’re not behind or in bad situations and I agree that that likely means we’re winning the game or at least sustaining drives to do so.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Iowa is preparing for and badly wants this to be the case.

We can't win the game unless we make some throws at critical times. That's just how it is.
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"Some throws?" Yes. Of course.

And, yes, Iowa is preparing to stop Mo. So has every other team Mo has faced. Nobody has actually stopped Mo.

The Gophers are not going to suddenly dial up the passing offense against Iowa. Here are some very sound reasons why they will not and should not do that:

— The Gophers offense is based on running and controlling time of possession. You don't change that philosophy late in the season against a very good defense.

— We have one of the best runners in the nation, and he is extremely productive

— Kaliakmanis is inexperienced

— Our receivers are suspect, at best, and have a habit of dropping the ball

— Iowa thrives on turnovers

— Weather: very cold and fairly windy.
 

RememberMurray said:
"Some throws?" Yes. Of course.

And, yes, Iowa is preparing to stop Mo. So has every other team Mo has faced. Nobody has actually stopped Mo.

The Gophers are not going to suddenly dial up the passing offense against Iowa. Here are some very sound reasons why they will not and should not do that:

— The Gophers offense is based on running and controlling time of possession. You don't change that philosophy late in the season against a very good defense.

— We have one of the best runners in the nation, and he is extremely productive

— Kaliakmanis is inexperienced.

— Iowa thrives on turnovers

— Weather: very cold and fairly windy.
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All reasons why Iowa is preparing to stop our running game. Yes, it can be stopped.

Mo's heroic, single-handed effort against Illinois and Penn St to save his 100+yd streak don't really disprove that.


I know everything didn't count, and I know it was Sanford ....... but ....... 2020 ......
 

Nomellini said:
Concerns that have not been raised
1. I want AK to start but have reservations, especially on a frigid day with unreliable receivers. Morgan delivers a softer ball that is more often in the body frame of his receivers. AK has the rocket arm but is less accurate. On this bitterly cold, windy day I can see receivers being unable to hold onto his bullet throws that are even slightly outside the body frame. They could easily ricochet for interceptions. TM is like a pitcher whose fastball tops out at 88 mph but usually can hit his spots. AK can hit 95 but with erratic command.
2. The Gopher o-line is great at run blocking but not athletic enough to excel at pass blocking. Iowa's pass rush is at least as good as Penn State's. Even 3rd and 5 will be problematic. With 2 tight ends for max protection, we have to hope one of two pedestrian wide-outs gets open. Can we spare a running back to slip out of the backfield? Will AK be nimble enough to stay upright and make plays?

Hope my practically innate Scandinavian pessimism is unfounded but I say Iowa 16 Minnesota 6
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Floated balls with low velocity are ripe to get pulled around by the wind. If you could have tanner for the short throws and reading coverage but with AKs deep ball, obviously it’d be ideal. Id prefer AK as I think it keeps the second safety from slamming into the box so quickly (there will already be one there) because of his ability to hit the deep ball (he also is more willing to throw it tbh) and extend plays with his feet. Additionally I think they’d let him run more than they’d let TM.

If PJ is saying we’re going to try win this 10-6 or something like that and wants to go super risk averse, TM is lower floor. But he’s also way lower ceiling. Hard to know what’s right but my gut says AK gives us a better shot to win vs this defense
 

Gophers_4life said:
All reasons why Iowa is preparing to stop our running game. Yes, it can be stopped.

Mo's heroic, single-handed effort against Illinois and Penn St to save his 100+yd streak don't really disprove that.


I know everything didn't count, and I know it was Sanford ....... but ....... 2020 ......
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So you're in favor of putting the game on Kaliakmanis' shoulders.

Okay, then.

Fair warning, though: Fleck will not do that. Nor should he.
 





the Gophers run at least 65% of the time

Running the ball >=70% is an all but guaranteed loss. Might only be a 0-6 loss ... but it goes into the L column.
 

Will they have some new wrinkles especially designed for Iowa? Yes.

Will they include plays that take advantage of Kaliakmanis' running ability? I hope so.

Will they throw 30 passes? No. Not unless we are behind.
 

Gophers_4life said:
the Gophers run at least 65% of the time

Running the ball >=70% is an all but guaranteed loss. Might only be a 0-6 loss ... but it goes into the L column.
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Now the threshold is more than 70%? Not sure where that came from.

In general sentiment, though, I respectfully disagree with you. I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet we win a high percentage of games in which we have a high percentage of running plays.
 

RememberMurray said:
Now the threshold is more than 70%? Not sure where that came from.

In general sentiment, though, I disagree with you. I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet we win a high percentage of games in which we have a higher percentage of running plays.
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Completely and totally irrelevant to playing a blood rival, in sub 20 deg weather, and when they have one of the best defenses in the country.

It doesn't matter what the actual true number is, I made up 70, just like you made up 65. My point is that we will not be able to just will our way to a win on Mo's back for the entire game.

Someone else is going to have to step up and make a few plays.
 

RememberMurray said:
Will they have some new wrinkles especially designed for Iowa? Yes.

Will they include plays that take advantage of Kaliakmanis' running ability? I hope so.

Will they throw 30 passes? No. Not unless we are behind.
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100%.

I hope we throw a bit but for me it's more about when we throw than how many times we throw. I have no problem running on third down and long and punting in this one. Even though the trading punts game is kind of dangerous in this one. Iowa would likely pick up 10 yards on each of those exchanges.
 

RememberMurray said:
Will they have some new wrinkles especially designed for Iowa? Yes.

Will they include plays that take advantage of Kaliakmanis' running ability? I hope so.

Will they throw 30 passes? No. Not unless we are behind.
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Sorry, missed this one.

Agree with these points.
 

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