The Matchup With Iowa

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Gophergrandpa said:
#55 had real trouble in the Penn State game recognizing and covering a releasing TE. Resulted in two PSU TDs. He is real good in run stopping; OK in zone coverage; not particularly good in man coverage (the weak spot if many LBs, in fairness). BTW, Iowa passes a lot to its TE. Our plan, if in man, can’t be to just let 55 handle TE coverage. Suddenly Iowa’s passing game will look very good.
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You're mostly right here in that teams are picking on MSM in the passing game, but it's not because he's in man coverage a lot, it's because MN plays a lot of cover 2 which leaves the MLB responsible for the deep middle part of the field (because the safeties are responsible for deep routes outside the hash marks). Since he's so aggressive in playing the run, he frequently finds himself flat footed on play action and scrambling to get back into his zone...mostly to cover a TE that's gotten by him. I don't know how MN will correct or avoid this against Iowa, but they LOVE throwing to the TE...so let's hope they have a plan.
 


MGGopher said:
You're mostly right here in that teams are picking on MSM in the passing game, but it's not because he's in man coverage a lot, it's because MN plays a lot of cover 2 which leaves the MLB responsible for the deep middle part of the field (because the safeties are responsible for deep routes outside the hash marks). Since he's so aggressive in playing the run, he frequently finds himself flat footed on play action and scrambling to get back into his zone...mostly to cover a TE that's gotten by him. I don't know how MN will correct or avoid this against Iowa, but they LOVE throwing to the TE...so let's hope they have a plan.
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It was 45 and 14 on passing downs quite a bit vs NW.
 

Heshmo said:
Iowa's defense held Ohio State, in Columbus, to 360 total yards (66 rush, 294 pass), 200 yards below their average of 560 at that time of the season. The Iowa defense scored 7 of the 10 total team points points. Ohio State's defense also returned favor with their own pick 6 with :17 remaining to end the first half at 26-10 score. Iowa's defense held Ohio State to an average of 3.9 yards per play in the first half and a total of 160 yards.

Iowa's offense committed 6 turnovers (3 fumbles, 3 interceptions) which gave OSU an average starting field position at their own 45 yard line.

The first half scoring for OSU looked like this:

4 plays, 1 yard, FG
10 plays, 75 yards, TD
4 plays, 4 yards, FG
5 plays, 17 yards, FG,
8 plays, 24 yards, FG
15 yard INT for TD

Iowa's defense slowly but surely ran out of gas in the second half which even the best of defenses will do, particularly against the #1 scoring offense in the country. At their place.

Peace.
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Thank you, Heshmo.

Those are staggering numbers.
 

MGGopher said:
You're mostly right here in that teams are picking on MSM in the passing game, but it's not because he's in man coverage a lot, it's because MN plays a lot of cover 2 which leaves the MLB responsible for the deep middle part of the field (because the safeties are responsible for deep routes outside the hash marks). Since he's so aggressive in playing the run, he frequently finds himself flat footed on play action and scrambling to get back into his zone...mostly to cover a TE that's gotten by him. I don't know how MN will correct or avoid this against Iowa, but they LOVE throwing to the TE...so let's hope they have a plan.
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Point taken. I guess what I see, then, is that the TE appears to be MSM's "zone" responsibility, but MSM--initially respecting the run fake--is caught low in his zone, scrambling backwards trying to catch up with the TE who is now behind him. Works badly because there is no direct, middle-of-the-field safety support for MSM to "hand off" the TE (?). One response is just to say MSM must play "smarter." But knowing MSM's tendencies, and respecting that he must make split second choices, it seems as though we should design something a little different, something with a safety valve, to handle a TE like Sam LaPorta, who could gash us badly up the middle, as the PSU night ends did. LaPorta might be Iowa's best receiver. Tough (and unwise) to have MSM primarily responsible for covering him on lots of plays. Find a way for Dixon to cover!
 
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Gophergrandpa said:
Point taken. I guess what I see, then, is that the TE appears to be MSM's "zone" responsibility, but that MSM is caught low in his zone, scrambling backwards trying to catch up with the TE who is now behind him. Works badly because there is no direct safety support for MSM to "hand off" the TE to. Knowing MSM's tendencies, it seems as though we should design something a little different, something with a safety valve, to handle a TE like Sam LaPorta, who could gash us badly up the middle, as the PSU night ends did.
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Going to go out on a limb and say that Rossi studied what the PSU TEs did no those long receptions and figured out how to defend against it happening again. Don't recall other TE lighting us up like that.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Going to go out on a limb and say that Rossi studied what the PSU TEs did no those long receptions and figured out how to defend against it happening again. Don't recall other TE lighting us up like that.
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You're no doubt right. My concern is just that we haven't played a team with a great TE since PSU. Iowa has one, and they throw to him a lot. Rossi plan is probably in place now. If we can contain TE LaPorta--while allowing MSM to attack Iowa's running game (freshman RB starting to shine)--that is an important step toward a win.
 


Gophergrandpa said:
You're no doubt right. My concern is just that we haven't played a team with a great TE since PSU. Iowa has one, and they throw to him a lot. Rossi plan is probably in place now. If we can contain TE LaPorta, that is an important step toward a win.
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Quality TE play might be the only similarity between the Iowa and PSU offenses. PSU has one of the best offenses in the conference, Iowa's is way down at the bottom in nearly every offensive category.

PSU was able to exploit those matchups because they had lots of other weapons on the field we had to account for as well. Iowa does not.
 



It is still getting lost in this thread just how bad the Iowa offense is. They have scored 15 TD in 10 games.....15. Their Defense is going to make it tough for our offense. Every defense (with the possible exception of Purdue's) makes it difficult for Iowa's offense.

This game will be won by the team who makes the fewest killer mistakes on offense.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Good Tanner and bad Tanner has been a real thing. He’s been pretty good versus both Iowa and Wisconsin with notable exception of 2019 but that was a team-wide collapse IIRC.

I guess we’ll know in a few days.
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2019 Morgan was really good vs Iowa considering the pass rush and that Johnson dropped a pass in the game winning drive he was leading.
 

We need this win for the fans as much as the players. Way some of you talk about Iowa you would think this awesome unstoppable monster was rolling into town.

This is a very even matchup and one we absolutely can win if we don't make stupid mistakes. Protect the ball, win the TOP and field position battle and at the end of the day we will get the result we are looking for.
 




MNVCGUY said:
It is still getting lost in this thread just how bad the Iowa offense is. They have scored 15 TD in 10 games.....15. Their Defense is going to make it tough for our offense. Every defense (with the possible exception of Purdue's) makes it difficult for Iowa's offense.

This game will be won by the team who makes the fewest killer mistakes on offense.
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Iowa's defense has scored 4 TDs this year, which is 21% of its total team TDs.

It has also scored two safeties (vs. S Dakota State) which was the winning margin in a 7-3 game.

Iowa's defense has twice outscored its offense (SDSU, Ohio State).

Against Iowa State, Iowa's defense snagged three turnovers and the special teams blocked two punts. And lost 10-7. To put that into perspective, if you block just one punt in a game you have about a 90% chance to win. Iowa doubled that number, and still lost. At home.

Iowa held Illinois to three field goals, won the turnover battle 3-1, in Champaign, and lost 9-6.

There is no plausible explanation as to how and why Iowa is sitting at 6-4 and has a path to the B1G West Division crown. It defies logic.

This is the most schizophrenic Iowa team I've ever witnessed.

But they are built for the back half of the season, as is reflected in their 13-0 November record since a 2019 loss at Wisconsin (24-22).

Peace.
 
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Heshmo said:
Iowa's defense has scored 4 TDs this year, which is 21% of its total team TDs.

It has also scored two safeties (vs. S Dakota State) which was the winning margin in a 7-3 game.

Iowa's defense has twice outscored its offense (SDSU, Ohio State).

Against Iowa State, Iowa's defense snagged three turnovers and the special teams blocked two punts. And lost 10-7. To put that into perspective, if you block just one punt in a game you have about a 90% chance to win. Iowa doubled that number, and still lost. At home.

Iowa held Illinois to three field goals, won the turnover battle 3-1, in Champaign, and lost 9-6.

There is no plausible explanation as to how and why Iowa is sitting at 6-4 and has a path to the B1G West Division crown. It defies logic.

This is the most schizophrenic Iowa team I've ever witnessed.

But they are built for the back half of the season, as is reflected in their 13-0 November record since a 2019 loss at Wisconsin (24-22).

Peace.
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It is a bit weird, but yes, they always seem to get better as the season goes along. Been saying it for years.
 

Heshmo said:
Iowa's defense held Ohio State, in Columbus, to 360 total yards (66 rush, 294 pass), 200 yards below their average of 560 at that time of the season. The Iowa defense scored 7 of the 10 total team points points. Ohio State's defense also returned favor with their own pick 6 with :17 remaining to end the first half at 26-10 score. Iowa's defense held Ohio State to an average of 3.9 yards per play in the first half and a total of 160 yards.

Iowa's offense committed 6 turnovers (3 fumbles, 3 interceptions) which gave OSU an average starting field position at their own 45 yard line.

The first half scoring for OSU looked like this:

4 plays, 1 yard, FG
10 plays, 75 yards, TD
4 plays, 4 yards, FG
5 plays, 17 yards, FG,
8 plays, 24 yards, FG
15 yard INT for TD

Iowa's defense slowly but surely ran out of gas in the second half which even the best of defenses will do, particularly against the #1 scoring offense in the country. At their place.

Peace.
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It looks like OSU had short fields on 5 of the 6 drives counting the pick 6. That's why OSU didn't put up many yards. They didn't need to put up yards to score. That said, I'm sure Ryan Day was concerned about settling for field goals. Good red zone D by Iowa.
 


GopherTakes said:
Here's my thoughts on the game...

The weather is going to be the biggest factor in the game, it will be the coldest temperature most of these players will ever play in. Its hard to prepare for that and will make every hit hurt that much more. I believe this game will be determined within the first quarter as scoring will be hard to come by, hence I'm taking the under.

Second, I am praying that our playbook has been so vanilla because we don't want Iowa having film on us. There is 0% chance that our play calling last game will win against the Hawkeyes. We will have to throw the ball over 10 yards in order to win. That being said whoever our QB will have to play smart. Turnovers cannot happen.

To me there is no clear option for our QB, yes Athan can use his legs but I worry he will make freshman mistakes leading to turnovers, but Tanner might limit the playbook so its a tossup for me.

Defensively if we play how we've been playing it won't take much offensively to get a W. Our pass rush has been great the past 2 weeks and that shouldn't change with Iowa's O-Line. Jah Joyner will play a huge role in this game if he continues what he's doing.

Lastly, Fans NEED to show up. Make this environment Hostile. It will be embarrassing trying to watch this team win in a half empty stadium. Cause Iowa to make mistakes.
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Re attendance, I don't expect a large crowd. Cold and the 8-1 Vikings playing Dallas a mile away the next day will dilute Minnesota fan interest and sports dollars -- and the weather will keep many Iowa fans from traveling.
 

FanSinceTheFifties said:
Re attendance, I don't expect a large crowd. Cold and the 8-1 Vikings playing Dallas a mile away the next day will dilute Minnesota fan interest and sports dollars -- and the weather will keep many Iowa fans from traveling.
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Hot take, but I kinda like that though. We get to see who is who. Regardless, it's still going to be a loud and hostile environment. The real die-hards know what's up.
Take a shot of fireball and let's get rowdy.
 

Panthadad2 said:
It looks like OSU had short fields on 5 of the 6 drives counting the pick 6. That's why OSU didn't put up many yards. They didn't need to put up yards to score. That said, I'm sure Ryan Day was concerned about settling for field goals. Good red zone D by Iowa.
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It was too bad. The Iowa defense put up a very good fight. With even just a modicum of offense, Iowa is tied or leading at half. First play of the game, INT to OSU. Field goal. They gave Stroud and the OSU offense more fits for a half (really 3 quarters) than any team has all year. Yes, short fields shortened the yardage total but several of those field goals were 3 or 4 plays, not many yards and a FG.
 

MNVCGUY said:
This is a very even matchup and one we absolutely can win if we don't make stupid mistakes. Protect the ball, win the TOP and field position battle and at the end of the day we will get the result we are looking for.
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Do you think Purdue and Wisconsin didn't understand the above? This isn't an issue of not understanding what to do. Everyone knows what not to do against Iowa. Do you think Iowa was able to create turnovers, blocked kicks, and short fields because their opponents were stupid?
 

FanSinceTheFifties said:
Re attendance, I don't expect a large crowd. Cold and the 8-1 Vikings playing Dallas a mile away the next day will dilute Minnesota fan interest and sports dollars -- and the weather will keep many Iowa fans from traveling.
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The Vikings game a day later will have zero effect on attendance. The weather absolutely will though.
 

GopherTheJugular said:
It's funny how on every broadcast they always highlight him as one of the players on D to watch, he's our best defender, etc. Do the announcers even watch any football of the upcoming team, or...?

I wasn't aware he was being exposed on passing downs, thanks.
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MNVCGUY said:
Gopherchase has an extreme dislike for Morgan and MSM so would take anything he says about either them with a grain of salt. :)
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That is true.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
The Vikings game a day later will have zero effect on attendance. The weather absolutely will though.
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I think it will. People have finite amounts of money, interest, and time to dedicate to diversions like sports. Some fans will choose to spend some of those things on the Vikings rather than the Gophers especially now that the Vikings are winning so much this season, Sure some fans will watch both and some occasional viewers will watch neither. BTW, I'll be watching the Gophers as I have no remaining interest in the NFL. Be well.
 



FanSinceTheFifties said:
I think it will. People have finite amounts of money, interest, and time to dedicate to diversions like sports. Some fans will choose to spend some of those things on the Vikings rather than the Gophers especially now that the Vikings are winning so much this season, Sure some fans will watch both and some occasional viewers will watch neither. BTW, I'll be watching the Gophers as I have no remaining interest in the NFL. Be well.
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The casual fan is almost always going to choose the Vikings, and it has been that way forever. It doesn't matter if they are 8-1, the Vikings sellout, or are close to it every game regardless, and the Cowboys are always a big draw. People who are going to that game have likely had those tickets for a long time, and they aren't choosing between the Vikings or the Gophers this week.
 

upnorthkid said:
yup. hoping they switch this up and role with a more Cover 1/Robber look and let our CBs lock up with their WRs. No reason Walley and T time can't lock them up on the outside
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right, especially with Petras in the game as he doesn't run well. If Padilla comes in then that could get exploited as it did early vs Nebraska.
 

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