The Gophers football team already is a 38-point favorite over Jerry Kill’s New Mexico State on Sept. 1.

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I haven't been keeping up. Are Fleck and Kill still beefing?
 

hello-world said:
I haven't been keeping up. Are Fleck and Kill still beefing?
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Not really.

Sports media types with nothing to talk about and internet trolls with empty lives are trying to manufacture a controversy.
 


I don't think we cover the spread, unless their defense is quite porous to the run. If we're up by 21 points and start just running the ball, we would have to be still waltzing up the field.
 



RememberMurray said:
Gopher football non-conference, under Fleck...

2017
Buffalo W 17-7
Oregon St W 48-14
Mid. Tenn. W 34-3

2018
New Mex. St W 48-10
Fresno St. W 21-14
Miami (OH) W 28-3

2019
South Dak. St W 28-21
Fresno St W 38-35
GA Southern W 35-32

2021
Miami (OH) W 31-28
Colorado W 30-0
Bowling Green L 10-14

Record: 11-1
Avg. scote: 30.7 - 15
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Murray, thank you for posting the non conference scores. The tighter games skewed my perception a towards our scores being a little lower overall then they were.
 



WAGopher said:
Murray, thank you for posting the non conference scores. The tighter games skewed my perception a towards our scores being a little lower overall then they were.
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My pleasure.

I looked it up after reading (here on GopherHole) how conservative the Gophers are under Fleck in non-conference games. I had to see for myself if it was true.

I have to say I chuckled when I saw that we had beaten New Mexico State 48-10 in our last meeting. 38 points, on the nose!

It is good to sprinkle in some facts now and then, to balance oit the hyperbole.
 



RememberMurray said:
My pleasure.

I looked it up after reading (here on GopherHole) how conservative the Gophers are under Fleck in non-conference games. I had to see for myself if it was true.

I have to say I chuckled when I saw that we had beaten New Mexico State 48-10 in our last meeting. 38 points, on the nose!

It is good to sprinkle in some facts now and then, to balance oit the hyperbole.
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That 2018 NMSU game was 33 passes and 48 runs with a punt return TD mixed in. Not super conservative but also not like we threw it all over the place. Sometimes running can score lots of points against an inferior opponent.
 

WAGopher said:
Murray, thank you for posting the non conference scores. The tighter games skewed my perception a towards our scores being a little lower overall then they were.
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Yes, indeed.

When I first saw that the spread for the opener was 38 points, I, like others here, thought it was way too high.

After some quick interweb research on Fleck's history at Minnesota in non-conference games, that 38 point spread doesn't seem quite so crazy anymore.

Bit, hey - anybody who thinks otherwise can always put a bet down, I guess.
 

Word said:
That 2018 NMSU game was 33 passes and 48 runs with a punt return TD mixed in. Not super conservative but also not like we threw it all over the place. Sometimes running can score lots of points against an inferior opponent.
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Very true.

33 passes and 48 runs can even lead to a 38 point win! Who knew?
 








Agree with those that feel the line is too high given the way Fleck approaches non-conf games. That said, I hope we kick the crap out of them and win by 50+.
 

I won't pretend to be an expert better, but I think people are skewed by some of our close NC games (and one terrible loss), and forgot that we've had a lot of blowouts, as Murray pointed out.

The other thing is that NMSU is not comparable to your average MAC/WAC/Sun Belt team, they are one of the worst programs in college football.

That said, I will not be betting on the game.
 

RememberMurray said:
Also interesting that the only other time the Gophers under Fleck played New Mexico State, the Maroon and Gold won by exactly 38 points.
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And that was a case of the top two backs (Rodney and Mo) racking up big gains repeatedly. The two combined for 257 yards on 33 carries (a 7.79 average per carry). Gophers had 527 yards offense in that game, the only time a Fleck Minnesota team has topped 500 in an early season non-conference game. That NM ST team also was ranked 126th out of 130 in points allowed per game (average given up of 41.3 per game).
 

Is Coach Kill still with Rebecca? I've seen innuendo tossed around so am not sure. Marital problems can't help Jerry's mood or health.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I won't pretend to be an expert better, but I think people are skewed by some of our close NC games (and one terrible loss), and forgot that we've had a lot of blowouts, as Murray pointed out.
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We had exactly one non-conference 38 point win margin as was pointed out (against the same team). I don't see a 38 point margin the way Fleck plays early season non-conference games, not even against a bad team. We're not Maryland or Nebraska who seem to try to beat bad opponents as much as possible.
 

cjbfbp said:
We had exactly one non-conference 38 point win margin as was pointed out (against the same team). I don't see a 38 point margin the way Fleck plays early season non-conference games, not even against a bad team. We're not Maryland or Nebraska who seem to try to beat bad opponents as much as possible.
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We have beaten Colorado by 30, Oregon St by 34, and Middle Tennessee State by 31, none of whom are nearly as bad as NMSU. Again I won't be betting one way or another, but you can't lump all of our NC opponents together as if they are of the same quality. The reason there is a 38 point spread on this game is not because Vegas thinks we have some explosive dominant offense, but rather that NMSU is really really bad.
 

RememberMurray said:
Biggest margins of victory for the Gophers in 2021:

1) 30 points over Colorado, on the road

2) 27 points over Northwestern, on the road

3) 21 points over Indiana, on the road

4) 18 points over Maryland, at the Bank
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Interesting - The perception is the Gophers don't blow teams out.
 



Some guy said:
The other thing is Jerry kill will go with the strategy of trying to keep the game short/close

So basically. Both coaches trying to play of the under. So take the underdog with the points and the under
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I think Kill does that naturally in all games, plus his OC has no experience as an OC at this level so I'm sure Kill will heavily influence the offense. If the defense dominates against the run I could see a 38 point win, but I'm not racing to bet on this one.
 


I think we're just giving 38 because it's week 1 of year 0 and it takes time for ol' jer to mold boys into men.
 


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