The Gophers football team already is a 38-point favorite over Jerry Kill’s New Mexico State on Sept. 1.

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BleedGopher

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The Gophers football team already is a 38-point favorite over Jerry Kill’s New Mexico State on Sept. 1 in Minneapolis. It’s the largest season-opening point differential game by BetOnline.ag.

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Go Gophers!!
 









fmlizard said:
Bet the other guys. This has nothing to do with Kill, Fleck, or my thoughts on the season. The Gophers are really bad at covering huge spreads against weaker teams since Glen Mason got fired.
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Yeah we don’t play a style that lends itself to 30 point wins.
I would pretty much feel 100% confident in 16.5
I feel 0% confident in 30+ regardless of opponent
 



Is this a potential for another Bowling Green debacle?

I hope they don't get into the habit of playing at the level of the competition.

Stay healthy.
 

I wonder if Jerry will have a quarterback that can actually complete a forward pass?
 

Biggest margins of victory for the Gophers in 2021:

1) 30 points over Colorado, on the road

2) 27 points over Northwestern, on the road

3) 21 points over Indiana, on the road

4) 18 points over Maryland, at the Bank
 

hungan1 said:
Is this a potential for another Bowling Green debacle?

I hope they don't get into the habit of playing at the level of the competition.

Stay healthy.
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No more than western Illinois is.
Being favored by more doesn’t make an upset more likely
 




If the Gophers go ahead by - let's say - 21 points, the rest of the game will be inside zone, inside zone, inside zone, inside zone.

Now, if NMS is truly awful, or if Fleck decides he wants to make Kill look bad, I suppose it's possible the Gophers win by 30+.

But, when push comes to shove, Fleck's conservative nature will win out over any desire for "revenge."

when the Gophers get a lead, Fleck's 1st instinct is not "pour it on." Fleck's 1st instinct is to "protect the lead."

So unless Fleck really, truly dislikes Kill, I just don't see the Gophers winning by that type of margin.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
If the Gophers go ahead by - let's say - 21 points, the rest of the game will be inside zone, inside zone, inside zone, inside zone.

Now, if NMS is truly awful, or if Fleck decides he wants to make Kill look bad, I suppose it's possible the Gophers win by 30+.

But, when push comes to shove, Fleck's conservative nature will win out over any desire for "revenge."

when the Gophers get a lead, Fleck's 1st instinct is not "pour it on." Fleck's 1st instinct is to "protect the lead."

So unless Fleck really, truly dislikes Kill, I just don't see the Gophers winning by that type of margin.
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I agree with you 100%. First game of the season is not about showing everything you have. Fleck will take the high road in not pouring it on. Naturally Kill is going use all of this for bulletin board material as to the spread. Kind of wish Kill wasn't at New Mexico right now. No matter what Fleck does, he is going to be raked over the coals.

As to Kill himself. I believe he has changed since he left here and is not the same person. I have nothing to back that up. Seems like he is more defensive etc.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
If the Gophers go ahead by - let's say - 21 points, the rest of the game will be inside zone, inside zone, inside zone, inside zone.

Now, if NMS is truly awful, or if Fleck decides he wants to make Kill look bad, I suppose it's possible the Gophers win by 30+.

But, when push comes to shove, Fleck's conservative nature will win out over any desire for "revenge."

when the Gophers get a lead, Fleck's 1st instinct is not "pour it on." Fleck's 1st instinct is to "protect the lead."

So unless Fleck really, truly dislikes Kill, I just don't see the Gophers winning by that type of margin.
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The other thing is Jerry kill will go with the strategy of trying to keep the game short/close

So basically. Both coaches trying to play of the under. So take the underdog with the points and the under
 

Some guy said:
Yeah we don’t play a style that lends itself to 30 point wins.
I would pretty much feel 100% confident in 16.5
I feel 0% confident in 30+ regardless of opponent
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So if sports is all about betting, and nothing else, you make perfect sense.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
If the Gophers go ahead by - let's say - 21 points, the rest of the game will be inside zone, inside zone, inside zone, inside zone.

Now, if NMS is truly awful, or if Fleck decides he wants to make Kill look bad, I suppose it's possible the Gophers win by 30+.

But, when push comes to shove, Fleck's conservative nature will win out over any desire for "revenge."

when the Gophers get a lead, Fleck's 1st instinct is not "pour it on." Fleck's 1st instinct is to "protect the lead."

So unless Fleck really, truly dislikes Kill, I just don't see the Gophers winning by that type of margin.
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To me this is why under the current system Fleck doesnt go to a more household name program. In those programs to make the playoffs you have to pour it on.
 



SanDiegoGopherFan said:
To me this is why under the current system Fleck doesnt go to a more household name program. In those programs to make the playoffs you have to pour it on.
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You really don’t.
Michigan state made a playoff. Iowa was a yard away from making a playoff


In the big ten you have to win the conference with 0 or 1 losses. Nothing else matters.
An unbeaten power 5 champ has never been left out.
A 1 loss power 5 champ has never been left out for a two loss team or a 1 loss non conference champ.
 

The Gophers won’t score 38 points in any early cupcake game. Fleck is all about perfecting the offensive line in the easy and early games. They use a complicated run blocking scheme, which is harder to master than the pass protection. This all means more rushing than passing and a lower scoring game, unless our backs are breaking for TDs all day.
 


Ridiculous line. 38 points, assuming NMex scores 3 points on a FG, requires 6 touchdowns (or 5TDs and a couple of FGs). Gets worse if NMex scores a TD or two. If this is a typical Fleck opener—run a very predictable offense while burning the clock down to zero on each play, which means we run 65 or so offensive plays total—this ain’t happening.

To hit this spread, we have to release the dogs on offense, or the D must score a couple of TDs on picks or fumbles. Could also, on most teams, mean a special teams TD is in the mix as a possibly. But not with the Gophers, who refuse to use STs as an offensive adjunct.

It is OK to open the playbook in early NC games. Let the players get some live reps on a variety of plays. Give our opponents a few more wrinkles that they gave to game plan for and worry about.

With some D or ST scoring, and an offense that utilizes it full talents, a 38 point spread is possible. But if PJ goes hyper conservative (as he has in several NC games in the past few years), we’ll be locked in a tight game with NM with 5:00 minutes left just hoping to pull out a win … and lamenting a game plan that plays down to our opponent’s level.
 
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#2Gopher said:
I agree with you 100%. First game of the season is not about showing everything you have. Fleck will take the high road in not pouring it on. Naturally Kill is going use all of this for bulletin board material as to the spread. Kind of wish Kill wasn't at New Mexico right now. No matter what Fleck does, he is going to be raked over the coals.

As to Kill himself. I believe he has changed since he left here and is not the same person. I have nothing to back that up. Seems like he is more defensive etc.
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So just one Kill but he's changed, as opposed to the multiple Flecks running around?
 

Gopher football non-conference, under Fleck...

2017
Buffalo W 17-7
Oregon St W 48-14
Mid. Tenn. W 34-3

2018
New Mex. St W 48-10
Fresno St. W 21-14
Miami (OH) W 28-3

2019
South Dak. St W 28-21
Fresno St W 38-35
GA Southern W 35-32

2021
Miami (OH) W 31-28
Colorado W 30-0
Bowling Green L 10-14

Record: 11-1
Avg. scote: 30.7 - 15
 



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