The Comparable 4: Minnesota (Johnson), Iowa State (Otzelberger), Penn State (Shrewsberry), Utah (Smith)

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UPDATED THROUGH GAMES PLAYED 1/9/23
These 2nd-year coaches are listed in order of overall winning percentage since taking over their programs prior to the 2021-22 season.

1 TJ Otzelberger (Iowa State) -- 34-15 overall (69.4%), 20-15 vs. Power 6 (57.1%), NCAA Tournament Appearances/Record (1/2-1)

2 Micah Shrewsberry (Penn State) -- 25-22 overall (53.2%), 13-21 vs. Power 6 (38.2%)

3 Craig Smith (Utah) -- 23-25 overall (47.9%), 11-22 vs. Power 6 (33.3%)

4 Ben Johnson (Minnesota) -- 19-25 overall (43.2%), 6-24 vs. Power 6 (20%)

NEXT UPDATE: 1/22/23
 
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SelectionSunday said:
UPDATED THROUGH GAMES PLAYED 1/9/23
Coaches are listed in order of overall winning percentage since taking over their programs prior to the 2021-22 season.

1 TJ Otzelberger (Iowa State) -- 34-15 overall (69.4%), 20-15 vs. Power 6 (57.1%), NCAA Tournament Appearances/Record (1/2-1)

2 Micah Shrewsberry (Penn State) -- 25-22 overall (53.2%), 13-21 vs. Power 6 (38.2%)

3 Craig Smith (Utah) -- 23-25 overall (47.9%), 11-22 vs. Power 6 (33.3%)

4 Ben Johnson (Minnesota) -- 19-25 overall (43.2%), 6-24 vs. Power 6 (20%)

NEXT UPDATE: 1/22/23
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Kinda forgot Iowa State won a couple tourney games.

What is the perception between the conferences? Is B1G better than B12 and P12?

TJO off to a great start. Shrewsberry has a senior laden squad this year.

Haven’t seen a ton of Utah.

Gophers are not very good but improving according to many.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Kinda forgot Iowa State won a couple tourney games.

What is the perception between the conferences? Is B1G better than B12 and P12?

TJO off to a great start. Shrewsberry has a senior laden squad this year.

Haven’t seen a ton of Utah.

Gophers are not very good but improving according to many.
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I'd rank these conferences (1) Big XII, (2) Big Ten, (3) Pac 12. Big XII clearly is the best Power 6 conference right now, IMO.

Utah may tail off a bit, but I think they have a decent chance to hang around the bubble all season. Tough SoCal road swing this week for the Utes when they go to UCLA & USC. Avoiding a sweep would be a success.
 
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leib0039 said:
Just as a point of comparison:

Va Tech11-1 5 Fr--5 Transfers--the 3 that are neither of those is 2 SO and 1 JR
Tex Tech 8-2 5 Fr--7 Transfers--1 JR who has been there 3 years
WVU 9-2 2 Fr 7 Transfers 4 Sophs

I would say those are 3 good examples of "complete" turnovers in 2 years. And they might be a bit better programs than the Gophers but they are certainly nowhere near the Duke/KU/UNC's of the world.
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Yeah but that’s the dumb way to rebuild. Freshmen, duh! Nut hugger. The transfers are just interlopers. Cry baby. The plan is great, if you think you can win in a rebuild you’re dumb. All the teams’ coaches that win in a rebuild are dumb, we would never want that. Did I mention Freshmen? Now do you finally get it? Gosh soooo dumb! There, nailed it.
 

SelectionSunday said:
UPDATED THROUGH GAMES PLAYED 1/9/23
These 2nd-year coaches are listed in order of overall winning percentage since taking over their programs prior to the 2021-22 season.

1 TJ Otzelberger (Iowa State) -- 34-15 overall (69.4%), 20-15 vs. Power 6 (57.1%), NCAA Tournament Appearances/Record (1/2-1)

2 Micah Shrewsberry (Penn State) -- 25-22 overall (53.2%), 13-21 vs. Power 6 (38.2%)

3 Craig Smith (Utah) -- 23-25 overall (47.9%), 11-22 vs. Power 6 (33.3%)

4 Ben Johnson (Minnesota) -- 19-25 overall (43.2%), 6-24 vs. Power 6 (20%)

NEXT UPDATE: 1/22/23
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Can you update this with information around their SOS since their tenure began or NET WIN ranking.

For example: this year CBJ is 6-0 against teams with a average net ranking of 293, while his average NET LOSSES (as of the other day) are #69.

How do the other four stack up? This may be a better indicator as record is meaningless without the extra layer of data.
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
Can you update this with information around their SOS since their tenure began or something like NET WIN ranking (if such a thing exists).

For example: this year CBJ is 6-0 against teams with a average net ranking of 293, while his average NET LOSSES (as of the other day) are #69.

How do the other four stack up? This may be a better indicator as record is meaningless without the extra layer of data.
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Feel free to tackle that one! This comparison is enough work for me to keep updated!
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
Can you update this with information around their SOS since their tenure began or NET WIN ranking.

For example: this year CBJ is 6-0 against teams with a average net ranking of 293, while his average NET LOSSES (as of the other day) are #69.

How do the other four stack up? This may be a better indicator as record is meaningless without the extra layer of data.
Click to expand...

Avg NET ranking of WINS:

TJ - 147(includes NCAAT wins)
Shrewsbury - 150
Johnson - 195
Smith - 198

Avg NET ranking of LOSSES:

TJ - 26(includes NCAAT loss)
Shrewsbury - 51
Johnson - 54
Smith - 72

Q1/Q2 record:

TJ: 18-15
Shrewsbury: 8-20
Smith: 3-19
Johnson 2-21

SOS is hard to completely quantify at this point, since we are only about half way through the season. Once this season is over, SOS will be easier to gauge/judge(but TJ will by far have played the toughest of the four)

This doesn't change too much from what @SelectionSunday has posted, but Smith got off to a real rough start last year(7 combined Q3/Q4 losses), so these numbers are to be expected when you're combining the year and a half of data. Johnson and Smith have had somewhat similar results thus far(I'd lean slightly in favor of Smith), but it's the trajectory of that program that pales in comparison to what the Gophers are currently doing.
 



Gophers7633 said:
Avg NET ranking of WINS:

TJ - 147(includes NCAAT wins)
Shrewsbury - 150
Johnson - 195
Smith - 198

Avg NET ranking of LOSSES:

TJ - 26(includes NCAAT loss)
Shrewsbury - 51
Johnson - 54
Smith - 72

Q1/Q2 record:

TJ: 18-15
Shrewsbury: 8-20
Smith: 3-19
Johnson 2-21

SOS is hard to completely quantify at this point, since we are only about half way through the season. Once this season is over, SOS will be easier to gauge/judge(but TJ will by far have played the toughest of the four)

This doesn't change too much from what @SelectionSunday has posted, but Smith got off to a real rough start last year(7 combined Q3/Q4 losses), so these numbers are to be expected when you're combining the year and a half of data. Johnson and Smith have had somewhat similar results thus far(I'd lean slightly in favor of Smith), but it's the trajectory of that program that pales in comparison to what the Gophers are currently doing.
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Thank you Gophers7633.

I do think this shows that TJ and Shrewsbury have done much better jobs. Their wins are against better teams and their losses are against much better teams. For CBJ to get to Shrewsbury's mark in Q1/Q2 games, he would have to win his next 6 in a row...we all know that is a pipedream.

What is the record prediction for when CBJ has 8 Q1/Q2 wins (currently 2/21)...?
 

Gophers7633 said:
Avg NET ranking of WINS:

TJ - 147(includes NCAAT wins)
Shrewsbury - 150
Johnson - 195
Smith - 198

Avg NET ranking of LOSSES:

TJ - 26(includes NCAAT loss)
Shrewsbury - 51
Johnson - 54
Smith - 72

Q1/Q2 record:

TJ: 18-15
Shrewsbury: 8-20
Smith: 3-19
Johnson 2-21

SOS is hard to completely quantify at this point, since we are only about half way through the season. Once this season is over, SOS will be easier to gauge/judge(but TJ will by far have played the toughest of the four)

This doesn't change too much from what @SelectionSunday has posted, but Smith got off to a real rough start last year(7 combined Q3/Q4 losses), so these numbers are to be expected when you're combining the year and a half of data. Johnson and Smith have had somewhat similar results thus far(I'd lean slightly in favor of Smith), but it's the trajectory of that program that pales in comparison to what the Gophers are currently doing.
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Not arguing but wondering. Are you saying the gophers on a better trajectory than Utah? I don’t follow them at all. Not sure what they are like, roster makeup, recruiting, etc.
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
Thank you Gophers7633.

I do think this shows that TJ and Shrewsbury have done much better jobs. Their wins are against better teams and their losses are against much better teams. For CBJ to get to Shrewsbury's mark in Q1/Q2 games, he would have to win his next 6 in a row...we all know that is a pipedream.

What is the record prediction for when CBJ has 8 Q1/Q2 wins (currently 2/21)...?
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Aww crap!
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Not arguing but wondering. Are you saying the gophers on a better trajectory than Utah? I don’t follow them at all. Not sure what they are like, roster makeup, recruiting, etc.
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Certainly not. But Utah had a far worse start to season 1 and that is still skeeweing the numbers a bit.
 




UpAndUnder43 said:
Kinda forgot Iowa State won a couple tourney games.

What is the perception between the conferences? Is B1G better than B12 and P12?

TJO off to a great start. Shrewsberry has a senior laden squad this year.

Haven’t seen a ton of Utah.

Gophers are not very good but improving according to many.
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I would say they're the top two conferences in the sport. Big 12 seems to have a little more at the top. Big ten little more in overall depth. The death of the big ten this year though was greatly exaggerated. Teams have mostly seem to have reloaded.
TJ seems to have Iowa State rolling, team is playing well this year and he's recruitef well. Shrew it'll be interesting to see where they are at next year when they lose a lot. His team reminds me alot of Pitino second team, could be tough if they fall off. Craig Smith the one who got away IMO
 

The problem with the Big Ten is that even though they have all these great teams and get all these seeds in the tourny .... they always seem to crap the bed in March Madness.

Something about the style of play not translating well to playing top teams in the rest of the country?
 


Looks like ISU took down Texas. Doing quite well. IIRC, the coaches on GH said they would not do well. Lower level conf finish.
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
Back to Jerome Tang and KSU, they beat #2 Kansas in OT last night at home. Crowd stormed the court and he gave a speech that they need to expect to win.

I wish we could expect to win
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Was Tang someone that was ever on Coyle's radar? Or are you just bringing up the win?


What a time to be a KSU fan! Football and men's basketball teams doing well.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Was Tang someone that was ever on Coyle's radar? Or are you just bringing up the win?


What a time to be a KSU fan! Football and men's basketball teams doing well.
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I brought him up a week ago either in this thread or another as an example of 1st year success. He has only 1 guy back from last year (a 10 pt score), everyone else is new. Plus, he has a great recruiting class coming in. Big time resume (18 years or so at Baylor).

Great time to be at KSU.
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
I brought him up a week ago either in this thread or another as an example of 1st year success. He has only 1 guy back from last year (a 10 pt score), everyone else is new. Plus, he has a great recruiting class coming in. Big time resume (18 years or so at Baylor).

Great time to be at KSU.
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Wasn't GH speculating that a Baylor guy might want to come here, at least to be an assistant? I guess not this guy.

Looking at KSU's roster: if you think it's "bad" that our roster doesn't have much MN talent .... wait til you see theirs! https://www.kstatesports.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster
 



Gophers_4life said:
The problem with the Big Ten is that even though they have all these great teams and get all these seeds in the tourny .... they always seem to crap the bed in March Madness.

Something about the style of play not translating well to playing top teams in the rest of the country?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure they get the greatest seeds - in the last 5 tournaments, 4 of them had zero B1G teams as a one-seed, and there was a year in there when the top B1G team was a 4-seed. I'm not saying they got screwed on their seeding, just that the top B1G tourney teams aren't expected to go past the second weekend in 4 out of the last 5 tournaments, anyway, so is it really that much of an underperformance?
 

BarnBurner said:
Looks like ISU took down Texas. Doing quite well. IIRC, the coaches on GH said they would not do well. Lower level conf finish.
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Some random thoughts from a Minnesota Cyclone on TJ at ISU:

Coach T.J. Otzelberger

Related to the coaches comparison, last year for TJ was amazing in making the Sweet Sixteen after inheriting a 2-22 team that went 0-18 in conference under Steve Prohm. Awesome, but peeps still had to think did he just catch lightening in a bottle with an awesome group of transfers that gelled for an unlikely run? Picked for 8th in the Big 12 this year and are currently tied for first and ranked #12. Now 4-2 versus ranked teams including a two point loss to #2 Kansas at Lawrence over the weekend. Have the one inexplicable bad loss to Iowa back in early December. With the recruiting classes (currently both ranked Top 10) for 2023 and 2024 pretty much every Cyclone fan thinks we have struck gold with the hire. Seeing a shift from heavy on transfers to HS recruits. I expect ISU will still be in the hunt big time for the right transfer pieces, it's been at thing since Hoiberg, but I think the goal is the HS recruiting. Won't need to fill an empty roster like in 2021-2022 or 2022-23. Example, starting PG is a freshman.


Ex-Gophers and Minnesotans (sidebar since I am here)

Gabe Kalscheur won the battle of the ex-Gophers over the Longhorns ex-Gopher Marcus Carr last night. He's been averaging 18.5 pts a game in conference play for Iowa State. Was a huge bonus for Cyclones when he elected to take a 5th year. Lot's of "Good Gabe" the last couple of weeks. His three point shooting has been up and down, more up this year at 35%, but his defense has been terrific every game.

Minnesotan Demarion Watson of Totino-Grace has had some moments off the bench as a freshman. He's played in every game, 9th in minutes but TJ goes 10 deep so seeing meaningful minutes. Played 19 minutes vs #2 Kansas. Minnesotan Eli King, Caledonia, doesn't played anymore than the walk-ons at this point. Not sure what King's story is, just blocked by depth or not able to play the defense that ISU is currently built around.

Still looking to recruit Minnesota, 2024 point guard Isaac Asuma is making an official visit on Feb. 4th when ISU hosts Kansas.
 

ISUnorth said:
Some random thoughts from a Minnesota Cyclone on TJ at ISU:

Coach T.J. Otzelberger

Related to the coaches comparison, last year for TJ was amazing in making the Sweet Sixteen after inheriting a 2-22 team that went 0-18 in conference under Steve Prohm. Awesome, but peeps still had to think did he just catch lightening in a bottle with an awesome group of transfers that gelled for an unlikely run? Picked for 8th in the Big 12 this year and are currently tied for first and ranked #12. Now 4-2 versus ranked teams including a two point loss to #2 Kansas at Lawrence over the weekend. Have the one inexplicable bad loss to Iowa back in early December. With the recruiting classes (currently both ranked Top 10) for 2023 and 2024 pretty much every Cyclone fan thinks we have struck gold with the hire. Seeing a shift from heavy on transfers to HS recruits. I expect ISU will still be in the hunt big time for the right transfer pieces, it's been at thing since Hoiberg, but I think the goal is the HS recruiting. Won't need to fill an empty roster like in 2021-2022 or 2022-23. Example, starting PG is a freshman.


Ex-Gophers and Minnesotans (sidebar since I am here)

Gabe Kalscheur won the battle of the ex-Gophers over the Longhorns ex-Gopher Marcus Carr last night. He's been averaging 18.5 pts a game in conference play for Iowa State. Was a huge bonus for Cyclones when he elected to take a 5th year. Lot's of "Good Gabe" the last couple of weeks. His three point shooting has been up and down, more up this year at 35%, but his defense has been terrific every game.

Minnesotan Demarion Watson of Totino-Grace has had some moments off the bench as a freshman. He's played in every game, 9th in minutes but TJ goes 10 deep so seeing meaningful minutes. Played 19 minutes vs #2 Kansas. Minnesotan Eli King, Caledonia, doesn't played anymore than the walk-ons at this point. Not sure what King's story is, just blocked by depth or not able to play the defense that ISU is currently built around.

Still looking to recruit Minnesota, 2024 point guard Isaac Asuma is making an official visit on Feb. 4th when ISU hosts Kansas.
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Just curious...how did Steve Prohm do his first few years at Iowa State?
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
Back to Jerome Tang and KSU, they beat #2 Kansas in OT last night at home. Crowd stormed the court and he gave a speech that they need to expect to win.

I wish we could expect to win
Click to expand...
And Jerome Tang is doing this with only 2 holdovers from Bruce Weber's team from last year. Funny what good coaching can do.
 

ISUnorth said:
Some random thoughts from a Minnesota Cyclone on TJ at ISU:

Coach T.J. Otzelberger

Related to the coaches comparison, last year for TJ was amazing in making the Sweet Sixteen after inheriting a 2-22 team that went 0-18 in conference under Steve Prohm. Awesome, but peeps still had to think did he just catch lightening in a bottle with an awesome group of transfers that gelled for an unlikely run? Picked for 8th in the Big 12 this year and are currently tied for first and ranked #12. Now 4-2 versus ranked teams including a two point loss to #2 Kansas at Lawrence over the weekend. Have the one inexplicable bad loss to Iowa back in early December. With the recruiting classes (currently both ranked Top 10) for 2023 and 2024 pretty much every Cyclone fan thinks we have struck gold with the hire. Seeing a shift from heavy on transfers to HS recruits. I expect ISU will still be in the hunt big time for the right transfer pieces, it's been at thing since Hoiberg, but I think the goal is the HS recruiting. Won't need to fill an empty roster like in 2021-2022 or 2022-23. Example, starting PG is a freshman.


Ex-Gophers and Minnesotans (sidebar since I am here)

Gabe Kalscheur won the battle of the ex-Gophers over the Longhorns ex-Gopher Marcus Carr last night. He's been averaging 18.5 pts a game in conference play for Iowa State. Was a huge bonus for Cyclones when he elected to take a 5th year. Lot's of "Good Gabe" the last couple of weeks. His three point shooting has been up and down, more up this year at 35%, but his defense has been terrific every game.

Minnesotan Demarion Watson of Totino-Grace has had some moments off the bench as a freshman. He's played in every game, 9th in minutes but TJ goes 10 deep so seeing meaningful minutes. Played 19 minutes vs #2 Kansas. Minnesotan Eli King, Caledonia, doesn't played anymore than the walk-ons at this point. Not sure what King's story is, just blocked by depth or not able to play the defense that ISU is currently built around.

Still looking to recruit Minnesota, 2024 point guard Isaac Asuma is making an official visit on Feb. 4th when ISU hosts Kansas.
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I'll be at that game. Friend has a friend on the ISU staff
 

ethomasp31 said:
Just curious...how did Steve Prohm do his first few years at Iowa State?
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Prohm's first year was a Sweet Sixteen with Hoiberg's roster and the next year was 2nd place in Big 12. He came into a good situation, we were only a season removed from another Sweet Sixteen. Seemed to be off to a good start (not like Sweet 16's litter the ISU basketball resume). Than spent the next four years augering in, one NCAA one and done and two last place in the Big 12 finishes with one 9th place.
 

Updated Through Games Played 1/21/23
These 2nd-year coaches are listed in order of overall winning percentage since taking over their programs prior to the 2021-22 season.

1 TJ Otzelberger (Iowa State) -- 36-17 overall (67.9%), 22-17 vs. Power 6 (56.4%), NCAA Tournament Appearances/Record (1/2-1)

2 Micah Shrewsberry (Penn State) -- 27-23 overall (54%), 15-22 vs. Power 6 (40.5%)

3 Craig Smith (Utah) -- 25-27 overall (48.1%), 13-24 vs. Power 6 (35.1%)

4 Ben Johnson (Minnesota) -- 20-27 overall (42.6%), 7-26 vs. Power 6 (21.2%)

NEXT UPDATE: 2/1/23
 

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