The Case for Niko (aka Niko’s Case)

Oatmeal Savage

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It seems like the majority on this board and the media, both nationally and locally, think Niko’s going to be Coyle’s choice. Coyle keeps things pretty close to the vest, so we’re all speculating. While many of us, myself included, don’t seem super excited about him, I’m warming quite a bit to the possibility. Here’s some reasons why:

Let’s get the obvious, and likely overrated, out of the way: the Minnesota connection. He’s from here, was a student manager at the U, and spent one year as an assistant. But coupled with his outgoing personality, I think that will prove to be really good with boosters, the media, and recruiting. He’s going to get off to a fast start and he’s not going to wear out his welcome or turn off certain people.

Of course with most of the mid-major candidates, it’s hard to know if their coaching, recruiting, etc. will translate to the high major level. As some have mentioned here, what should give pause is a hot coach who has a run, especially with one or two good players. Is that a flash in the pan? During the last Gopher’s coaching search I worried that Niko’s success at Colorado State was largely based on David Roddy. But now, four years later, it seems like he continues to have success with a variety of other players. Considering his stints as a head coach of four years, one, and seven give a pretty good idea of his track record.

Also, if he were to retain his former assistant Dave Thorson it would likely help smooth his transition. He might be able to retain several key Gophers: Asuma and Frank Mitchell. It might also maintain Minnesota high school recruiting relationships. Additionally, Niko might be able to bring along some of his current players. He might be able to get hit the court running and have some momentum in the first few years, which Ben never seemed to gain.

Others might have better insight into his x’s and o’s and game management. Though, I will say, I was not impressed by last year’s NCAA tourney loss that was Virginia-esque where they only scored 11 first half points against Texas. At least they were in the tournament (and had beat Virginia in the First Four).

Tune in tonight at 5pm Central on CBS to watch Colorado State vs. Boise State for the Mountain West Championship. It would also be interesting to hire the regular season MWC runner up; the league winner was Pitino.
 



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niko_Medved#Head_coaching_record

(2024-25 obviously isn't done yet)

isEtKPL.png
 

Nice analysis of what many of us think of as almost inevitable.

For purposes of discussion, I will throw in that the local recruiting angle has diminished significantly in the portal era. Far more important in recruiting is getting talent and being able to get them to gel quickly. Both criteria horribly difficult to evaluate but essential for success in the free transfer and pay to play era.

Remember the previous administration lost players it really wanted to places like St. Bonaventure who could not have outbid us in cash.
 


We need a coach with at least 4-5 successful years as HC at a mid to high level school rather than a one year flash in the pan guy. Medved fits that bill and he won't break the bank.

Here are the contract terms for the new deal Niko signed last April.
2024-25: $1.7 million salary
2025-26: $1.75 million salary
2026-27: $1.8 million salary
2027-28: $1.85 million salary
2028-29: $1.9 million salary
2029-30 (option): $1.95 million salary
2030-31 (option): $2 million salary

The buyout for Medved leaving (for another job, for example) would be that Medved owes 33% of the remaining contract value.

 

Occasional lurker, first time poster. Here to support the pro-Niko movement. I give not one crap about his local connections. I don’t think a few years here is any sort of benefit at the end of the day, and I curse Sid Hartman for making the “one of us” so important to the yokels here. However, if I were writing a job posting for a Power 5 HC job, key requirements would be:

-Track record of improving programs as a HC in progressively competitive leagues.
-At least 2 years of winning basketball in what I’ll call “Tier 2” conferences or 5 years in “Tier 3” conferences. Power 5 is Tier 1, I would put A10, MW, American, WC and maybe MV in Tier 2, Southern is probably Tier 3 (if anyone cares there’s probably 5 tiers and I look at the Summit as Tier 4).
-Some experience as AC in Power 5 conference.

Check, check, and check for Medved. That he happens to have hooks here is coincidental.
 

Occasional lurker, first time poster. Here to support the pro-Niko movement. I give not one crap about his local connections. I don’t think a few years here is any sort of benefit at the end of the day, and I curse Sid Hartman for making the “one of us” so important to the yokels here. However, if I were writing a job posting for a Power 5 HC job, key requirements would be:

-Track record of improving programs as a HC in progressively competitive leagues.
-At least 2 years of winning basketball in what I’ll call “Tier 2” conferences or 5 years in “Tier 3” conferences. Power 5 is Tier 1, I would put A10, MW, American, WC and maybe MV in Tier 2, Southern is probably Tier 3 (if anyone cares there’s probably 5 tiers and I look at the Summit as Tier 4).
-Some experience as AC in Power 5 conference.

Check, check, and check for Medved. That he happens to have hooks here is coincidental.
Nice to meet you Niko! Good luck against Boise St. tonight 😄
 

Fun fact: Niko's middle name is "Settle".

Niko Settle Medved.

Perfect fit at UM, where settle is second nature.

He'll have us in the "first four out" conversation in no time!!
 



It seems that most view McCollum as a better prospect than Medved. In my opinion either would be a good hire. Medved has more D1 experience while McCollum has D2 championships. I like Medveds style of play better but maybe McCollum adjusts his to fit his talent?
 
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Good analysis. I’d be fine with this.Although I’m not sure how different than BJ. Agree—keep Thorson. Coyle has to deliver a “Project Gopher” plan of how the U of M is going to support Gopher basketball financially and make it the top Division 1 program in the Upper Midwest.
 


Remember the previous administration lost players it really wanted to places like St. Bonaventure who could not have outbid us in cash.

Charles Pride committed to St. Bonaventure after his hometown friend, Mika Adams-Woods, committed there. Pride said that his visit here was good. His roster space was filled by Hawkins afterwards so we came out all right.
 



I've come full circle and will be happy with Niko as the hire if that is the case. I could also care less that he's from MN or whether or not Dave Thorson stays on the staff.

But Niko is one of the top coaches available this cycle. Despite all of the NIL/transfer portal issues over the last 4 years, he has done a really good job of building his teams with HS recruits and keeping them in the program, along with supplementing through the transfer portal.

It's very similar to how PJ runs the football program, and means Niko likely has a very solid culture and program in place at Colorado St. He has now proven this at multiple stops.

Mountain West coaches are a crapshoot. The ones you think are going to jump and be successful often times fail, and then there's coaches like TJ Otzelberger who was under .500 overall at UNLV and immediately made Iowa St a powerhouse in the Big 12.

Niko has been very solid at Colorado St, and maybe he will be our TJ O.
 
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Nice to meet you Niko! Good luck against Boise St. tonight 😄
No no no, my first choice is Wade. He’s a strong-ass coach. We’d be competing for league titles in 2 years and barely avoiding the death penalty in 5. Right now, I’d make that deal. But being realistic, a known cheat is likely radioactive here and it isn’t gonna happen. I see no point in fixating on unobtainium.
 

Fun fact: Niko's middle name is "Settle".

Niko Settle Medved.

Perfect fit at UM, where settle is second nature.

He'll have us in the "first four out" conversation in no time!!
Far better than “Suck”.
 

We need a coach with at least 4-5 successful years as HC at a mid to high level school rather than a one year flash in the pan guy. Medved fits that bill and he won't break the bank.

Here are the contract terms for the new deal Niko signed last April.
2024-25: $1.7 million salary
2025-26: $1.75 million salary
2026-27: $1.8 million salary
2027-28: $1.85 million salary
2028-29: $1.9 million salary
2029-30 (option): $1.95 million salary
2030-31 (option): $2 million salary

The buyout for Medved leaving (for another job, for example) would be that Medved owes 33% of the remaining contract value.

Hmm...that's about what Johnson was getting paid. This seems like it might be a problem.
 

No no no, my first choice is Wade. He’s a strong-ass coach. We’d be competing for league titles in 2 years and barely avoiding the death penalty in 5. Right now, I’d make that deal. But being realistic, a known cheat is likely radioactive here and it isn’t gonna happen. I see no point in fixating on unobtainium.
Is it possible to cheat in college basketball anymore?
 

So how is Niko going to field a competitive B1G team that can consistently go to the Tourny and compete for B1G conference championships every once in a while?

He looks like a really nice guy and most likely is a good coach, but that is not enough anymore to lure the top players to your program.

Uncontrolled NIL and free transfers have changed everything.

It is one thing to evaluate talent and develop them for a lower tier program. But in the B1G that just gives you at best an occasional 0.500 conference record and maybe a tourney bid every 4-6 years. A team that will get their best players poached every year from one of 50 other programs.

I am not saying that level of play is bad, but realize what you are getting with the hire that you are making. It may be fun, but stop bitching about not winning against the big guys and having a sub 0.500 record.

In order to compete with the best, you need to bring in a game changing name that will instantly allure players to the program (assuming you also have the NIL to pay those players every year).
 

No no no, my first choice is Wade. He’s a strong-ass coach. We’d be competing for league titles in 2 years and barely avoiding the death penalty in 5. Right now, I’d make that deal. But being realistic, a known cheat is likely radioactive here and it isn’t gonna happen. I see no point in fixating on unobtainium.
You're right, it isn't gonna happen.

But it should.

Wade is the exact guy this program needs.

Start the process of thumbing your nose at the NCAA, for one thing. Like the serious programs have done for decades now.
What has trying to be "clean" gotten us?
 
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So how is Niko going to field a competitive B1G team that can consistently go to the Tourny and compete for B1G conference championships every once in a while?

He looks like a really nice guy and most likely is a good coach, but that is not enough anymore to lure the top players to your program.

Uncontrolled NIL and free transfers have changed everything.

It is one thing to evaluate talent and develop them for a lower tier program. But in the B1G that just gives you at best an occasional 0.500 conference record and maybe a tourney bid every 4-6 years. A team that will get their best players poached every year from one of 50 other programs.

I am not saying that level of play is bad, but realize what you are getting with the hire that you are making. It may be fun, but stop bitching about not winning against the big guys and having a sub 0.500 record.

In order to compete with the best, you need to bring in a game changing name that will instantly allure players to the program (assuming you also have the NIL to pay those players every year).

Sounds great! Why don't you place the calls to John Calipari and Kelvin Sampson and see what they say?
 

The more Medved and CSU wins, the better I'll feel about the idea of him coming here, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. I want a homerun hire but I'll settle for a double or a triple
 

The more Medved and CSU wins, the better I'll feel about the idea of him coming here, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. I want a homerun hire but I'll settle for a double or a triple
Thinking how many wins CSU gets in the next week or two somehow changes the Gopher trajectory is akin to thinking winning a game in LA changed the Gopher trajectory.

Zoom out, rather than in, and take in the bigger picture.
 

You're right, it isn't gonna happen.

But it should.

Wade is the exact guy this program needs.

Start the process of thumbing your nose at the NCAA, for one thing. Like the serious programs have done for decades now.
What has trying to be "clean" gotten us?
You’re goddamn right! I wholeheartedly believe in following the rules, but the college sports system is broken, corrupt, and amoral (as is the country right now, but hey this is a basketball forum). Why can’t we also be broken, corrupt, and amoral?

If I had a criticism of Will Wade, it’s that nearly every other major program was undoubtedly doing the same dirty pool stuff Wade got show-caused for, but he was the only one too stupid to avoid getting caught.
 


Thinking how many wins CSU gets in the next week or two somehow changes the Gopher trajectory is akin to thinking winning a game in LA changed the Gopher trajectory.

Zoom out, rather than in, and take in the bigger picture.

You're right, the wins going forward don't matter. Looking at the bigger picture, if CSU makes the NCAA tournament this year, it will be the 3rd time in 4 years under Niko.

Only one other CSU coach in history did that and it was nearly 60 years ago. And Niko is doing it during a time where schools like CSU aren't supposed to be able to compete due to NIL and the transfer portal.
 

I've come full circle and will be happy with Niko as the hire if that is the case. I could also care less that he's from MN or whether or not Dave Thorson stays on the staff.

But Niko is one of the top coaches available this cycle. Despite all of the NIL/transfer portal issues over the last 4 years, he has done a really good job of building his teams with HS recruits and keeping them in the program, along with supplementing through the transfer portal.

It's very similar to how PJ runs the football program, and means Niko likely has a very solid culture and program in place at Colorado St. He has now proven this at multiple stops.

Mountain West coaches are a crapshoot. The ones you think are going to jump and be successful often times fail, and then there's coaches like TJ Otzelberger who was under .500 overall at UNLV and immediately made Iowa St a powerhouse in the B1G.

Niko has been very solid at Colorado St, and maybe he will be our TJ O.
Well said. Every online comment section I'm reading tells me CSU fans badly do not want to lose him, so I'll consider that a good sign.
 


Fun fact: Niko's middle name is "Settle".

Niko Settle Medved.

Perfect fit at UM, where settle is second nature.

He'll have us in the "first four out" conversation in no time!!
Settle for a guy with 3 NCAA berths potentially in 5 years? I’ve said he was the floor, but I may have been hard on him. He’d be a really good hire. We’ll see if Coyle agrees.
 




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