The Athletic: How Big Ten football scheduling could change in 2023, with or without divisions

BleedGopher

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per Scott:

With a big payday near its grasp and only days away from the NCAA Division I Council shedding all championship game constraints, the Big Ten can reshape its future scheduling, alignment and championship arrangement any way it chooses beginning in 2023.

Following its June 5 presidents and chancellors meeting, the Big Ten should announce its future media rights agreement. It’s likely the league will connect with two primary over-the-air networks and perhaps two different cable channels once the current football arrangement ends in December, according to an industry source. Next week, the Division I Council meets and likely will approve a recommendation from the NCAA Football Oversight Committee to eliminate the requirement to play either a round-robin schedule or split into divisions in order to hold a championship game.

What does this mean for the Big Ten? The media rights deal could double the league’s annual media revenue from the current $54 million per school this fiscal year. The NCAA’s rules chance would allow the Big Ten to eliminate divisions — if it chooses — and stage a title game between the top two teams in the 14-team conference.


Scott has quite a few realignment options in the link:


Go Gophers!!
 

From the article of the 18 most watched Big 10 game (all more than 3.5 million viewers) 9 were East-West games which is 43% of all the Inter-Division matchups.

TV networks are paying big bucks. They are driving the move to a Divisionless format, realignment or one with far more East-West Games
 

That is great...they just made well over half the league irrelevant if this comes to pass.
 




From the article of the 18 most watched Big 10 game (all more than 3.5 million viewers) 9 were East-West games which is 43% of all the Inter-Division matchups.

TV networks are paying big bucks. They are driving the move to a Divisionless format, realignment or one with far more East-West Games
I don’t think anyone has thought of why 43% of inter divisional games get high rankings. And the answer is because divisions cause record to funnel within the division. So when a team in the top 3 of one division plays a team in the top 3 of the other division it is almost always a top 25 matchup.


If iowas schedule was:
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nebraska
Rutgers
Ohio state
Michigan
Penn state

3 loss Iowa playing Penn state won’t get the same rating as 1 or 2 loss Iowa playing Penn state.



I disagree with your premise in your second paragraph.





Here is some logic people are failing to see;
Argument needs to scrap divisions because they are imbalanced
If they are imbalanced truly, the argument that interdicsional games will get high ratings doesn’t hold water because the west won’t have so many west vs west games to prop up records.


Those two arguments contradict each other. You can’t say they are imbalanced so we have to change them and it’ll provide more marquee games in the same argument because they contradict each other in terms of what will actually happen.





Second thing the no division proponents have ever produced is a 9 game schedule with locked rivalries that mathematically eliminated the possibility of three teams tied in the standings with unbeaten records.
 

From the article of the 18 most watched Big 10 game (all more than 3.5 million viewers) 9 were East-West games which is 43% of all the Inter-Division matchups.
Do you have this list/table handy somewhere with a link?

I did try Googling this, but the results were stubbornly only showing basic top 10 for the entire season (including bowl games) or otherwise there was this all-encompassing list: https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

but I did not want to go through and manually compile for the Big Ten.

Thank you!
 

I'd actually forgot about that Lennon interview

With divisions on the endangered list, how might Big Ten change?​

Alex Hickey
https://www.facebook.com/dialog/sha...the-endangered-list-how-might-big-ten-change/

If John Lennon had lived into his 80s, he probably would have imagined a college football world without conference divisions. (Hey man, it’s possible. The guy really enjoyed the only American football game he went to. Randomly becoming a college football fanatic seems like a reasonable midlife crisis he might have encountered.)
A world once reserved for the dreamers is nearly upon us.
Later this month, the NCAA Division I council is expected to pass a measure that alters the rules for conference championship games. Under the current system, conferences with at least 12 members must split into divisions in order to hold a championship game.
Once that hurdle is eliminated, every conference will be able to join the Big 12 in sending its top 2 teams to the title game.
Of course, that’s pretty easy to accomplish in the Big 12, which presently has 10 members. The league plays a 9-game round-robin schedule. Any tiebreakers are determined by CFP rankings.
Eliminating divisional play in the Big Ten, which has 14 members, will be a bit more complex. But conference leaders have seen this possibility coming for awhile. In December, Iowa athletic director Gary Barta noted the league already was discussing such a scheduling model as soon as 2023.
In that model, teams would only play 8 Big Ten games each season. This is needed for the symmetry of giving each team 3 protected annual opponents, plus at least 1 game against every other Big Ten team every 2 years. This means there would be no major scheduling lapses.
For example, Minnesota and Michigan have only played twice since 2016. They’ll miss each other again in 2022. That’s not good enough for a trophy game that was played every single season from 1929-99. Based on the proposal Barta mentioned, this year would be their 4th meeting since 2016.

What will the B1G look like?​

If the Big Ten placed me at Kevin Warren’s desk for a day, every team’s protected rivals would be as follows.

Illinois​

Northwestern
Purdue
Rutgers

Indiana​

Purdue
Rutgers
Maryland

Iowa​

Nebraska
Minnesota
Wisconsin

Maryland​

Indiana
Rutgers
Penn State

Michigan​

Ohio State
Michigan State
Minnesota



Michigan State​

Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State

Minnesota​

Iowa
Michigan
Wisconsin

Nebraska​

Iowa
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Northwestern​

Illinois
Nebraska
Purdue

Ohio State​

Michigan
Michigan State
Penn State

Penn State​

Maryland
Ohio State
Michigan State

Purdue​

Indiana
Illinois
Northwestern

Rutgers​

Illinois
Indiana
Maryland

Wisconsin​

Iowa
Nebraska
Minnesota

As I would be arrested for trespassing if I sat at Warren’s desk, there’s a chance the actual outcome looks a bit different. But those would likely be fairly minor tweaks.

Realignment winners and losers​

As with anything, there will be winners and losers here.
From a competitive standpoint, Ohio State and Michigan State would have the toughest permanent schedules. But both teams already face those 3 opponents annually, so nothing would change in that regard.
The beneficiaries of the new setup would be the teams that are trapped in the bottom half of the East — Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland. The path to an 8- or 9-win season suddenly becomes manageable for those programs. A magical run to the Big Ten Championship Game might even come into play once a decade or so.
Things will become more difficult for every team in the West. But at this point, that’s what needs to happen.


Since the B1G split into geographic divisions in 2014, the West champion is 0-8 in the title game. That streak began with Ohio State’s 59-0 win over Wisconsin, and reached No. 8 with Michigan’s 42-3 win over Iowa.
If the Big Ten Championship Game was more even on the field, doing away with divisions would not feel like a necessity. But the way things have gone, the West champ frequently puts the entire conference at risk.
In an ideal world, the winner of the Big Ten title game will all but guarantee itself a spot in the College Football Playoff. Over the past 8 seasons, an upset by the West champ only would have served to prevent the B1G from reaching the CFP.

Revisionist history​

The most worrisome element of moving away from divisions is the potential for giving us a Michigan-Ohio State matchup in consecutive weeks. Without question, it diminishes the significance of The Game to have to come back and do it again a week later. (Though some might argue that the chance to be the first Ohio State or Michigan team to beat their rival twice in a single season would have a great deal of value.)
If the proposed rule change was in effect since the birth of the Big Ten Championship Game in 2012, the Buckeyes and Wolverines would have played in the 2018 and 2021 title games.
In total, 5 of the 11 championships matchups would have been altered. The would-be matchups are listed in parentheses.
  • 2021: Michigan vs. Iowa (Michigan vs. Ohio State)
  • 2020: Ohio State vs. Northwestern (Ohio State vs. Indiana)
  • 2019: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
  • 2018: Ohio State vs. Northwestern (Ohio State vs. Michigan)
  • 2017: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
  • 2016: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (Penn State vs. Ohio State)
  • 2015: Iowa vs. Michigan State
  • 2014: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (Ohio State vs. Michigan State)
  • 2013: Michigan State vs. Ohio State
  • 2012: Ohio State vs. Nebraska
  • 2011: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Interestingly, all 5 of those altered championship games are after the geographical split. The 3 years of the Leaders and Legends era produced an equitable split. But because equity came with stupid names, it did not stick.
Wisconsin and Northwestern would be the biggest overall losers with 2 championship game appearances removed. For the 2018 Wildcats, it would be due to their lone Big Ten loss coming against Michigan. And in 2020, Indiana carried a higher CFP ranking heading into championship week.
As for Wisconsin, I have a feeling Badgers fans would be willing to erase a “2014 Big Ten West champs” banner if it meant avoiding a 59-0 humiliation to the Buckeyes.

Will it happen?​

When the elimination of divisions was being discussed back in December, Barta mentioned that administrators were keeping an eye on CFP expansion. That element fell through. So it will be interesting to see what, if any, effect it will have on the Big Ten’s plans.
Of course, the Division I council wouldn’t be making this move without backing.
The ACC has already signaled that it wants to move away from divisions. For the Big Ten, it seems it will only be a matter of picking which year to start the new scheduling model. Given the need to add a non-conference game to the schedule, it would not be surprising if that’s done in conjunction with the ACC — or at least not too far behind.
The East and West Divisions are not extinct just yet. But they do officially belong on the endangered list.
Imagine that.


 

Do you have this list/table handy somewhere with a link?

I did try Googling this, but the results were stubbornly only showing basic top 10 for the entire season (including bowl games) or otherwise there was this all-encompassing list: https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

but I did not want to go through and manually compile for the Big Ten.

Thank you!
The article did not provide a table listing out what the Top 18 Big 10 rated games were nor a full list of the 9 East-West games that were part of it.

They simply noted Sports Media watch as the source. Ohio St-Minnesota was 1 of the 9.
 
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The article did not provide a table listing out what the Top 18 Big 10 rated games were nor a full list of the 9 East-West games that were part of it.

They simply noted Sports Media watch as the source. Ohio St-Minnesota was 1 of 9.
Fair enough. Yeah, if I wasn't too lazy I would just go through that and tally it up manually.
 

This greed, now in so many different areas, will change college football in many negative ways. The East-West division arrangement is perfect now that the West is getting stronger. Just sickening to see all these revenue-dictated changes in football.
 


Be bold. Be the first to do conference semi-finals!
NCAA rules don't currently allow for an exempt conference semi-final, like they do a championship.

You'd have to do a hand-waiving thing where the last week of the regular season was a floating schedule.

Could also do a West #1 vs East #2 and East #1 vs West #2 type of thing, which could be interesting.
 




From the article of the 18 most watched Big 10 game (all more than 3.5 million viewers) 9 were East-West games which is 43% of all the Inter-Division matchups.

TV networks are paying big bucks. They are driving the move to a Divisionless format, realignment or one with far more East-West Games
Edit. I’m dumb
 

It's possible you might get more top 25 matchups without divisions. But I don't think it's a foregone conclusion by any means.
 

It's possible you might get more top 25 matchups without divisions. But I don't think it's a foregone conclusion by any means.
I think it’s less likely: two closed loop round robins naturally creates a couple of 0–1 loss teams and a few 2-3 loss teams.

You could end up with 7 9-3 teams and zero 11-1 teams without closed loop scheduling.
 

I think it’s less likely: two closed loop round robins naturally creates a couple of 0–1 loss teams and a few 2-3 loss teams.

You could end up with 7 9-3 teams and zero 11-1 teams without closed loop scheduling.
Anything can happen. It's about what the TV networks think is more likely to happen and thus more likely to increase viewership.

Not saying I'm siding with them over you. I think you have very solid reasoning. Just that nothing can be "proven". The concerns you raise are valid. But I think at the end of the day, the Big Ten leadership is going to listen to and do what their TV partners want them to do, on this.
 

Anything can happen. It's about what the TV networks think is more likely to happen and thus more likely to increase viewership.

Not saying I'm siding with them over you. I think you have very solid reasoning. Just that nothing can be "proven". The concerns you raise are valid. But I think at the end of the day, the Big Ten leadership is going to listen to and do what their TV partners want them to do, on this.
The big ten will be mindful that a 300k difference per school isn’t worth it to cause long term damage to the brand too.

So I don’t think it’s all money
 

I'd actually forgot about that Lennon interview

With divisions on the endangered list, how might Big Ten change?​

Alex Hickey
https://www.facebook.com/dialog/sha...the-endangered-list-how-might-big-ten-change/

If John Lennon had lived into his 80s, he probably would have imagined a college football world without conference divisions. (Hey man, it’s possible. The guy really enjoyed the only American football game he went to. Randomly becoming a college football fanatic seems like a reasonable midlife crisis he might have encountered.)
A world once reserved for the dreamers is nearly upon us.
Later this month, the NCAA Division I council is expected to pass a measure that alters the rules for conference championship games. Under the current system, conferences with at least 12 members must split into divisions in order to hold a championship game.
Once that hurdle is eliminated, every conference will be able to join the Big 12 in sending its top 2 teams to the title game.
Of course, that’s pretty easy to accomplish in the Big 12, which presently has 10 members. The league plays a 9-game round-robin schedule. Any tiebreakers are determined by CFP rankings.
Eliminating divisional play in the Big Ten, which has 14 members, will be a bit more complex. But conference leaders have seen this possibility coming for awhile. In December, Iowa athletic director Gary Barta noted the league already was discussing such a scheduling model as soon as 2023.
In that model, teams would only play 8 Big Ten games each season. This is needed for the symmetry of giving each team 3 protected annual opponents, plus at least 1 game against every other Big Ten team every 2 years. This means there would be no major scheduling lapses.
For example, Minnesota and Michigan have only played twice since 2016. They’ll miss each other again in 2022. That’s not good enough for a trophy game that was played every single season from 1929-99. Based on the proposal Barta mentioned, this year would be their 4th meeting since 2016.

What will the B1G look like?​

If the Big Ten placed me at Kevin Warren’s desk for a day, every team’s protected rivals would be as follows.

Illinois​

Northwestern
Purdue
Rutgers

Indiana​

Purdue
Rutgers
Maryland

Iowa​

Nebraska
Minnesota
Wisconsin

Maryland​

Indiana
Rutgers
Penn State

Michigan​

Ohio State
Michigan State
Minnesota



Michigan State​

Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State

Minnesota​

Iowa
Michigan
Wisconsin

Nebraska​

Iowa
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Northwestern​

Illinois
Nebraska
Purdue

Ohio State​

Michigan
Michigan State
Penn State

Penn State​

Maryland
Ohio State
Michigan State

Purdue​

Indiana
Illinois
Northwestern

Rutgers​

Illinois
Indiana
Maryland

Wisconsin​

Iowa
Nebraska
Minnesota

As I would be arrested for trespassing if I sat at Warren’s desk, there’s a chance the actual outcome looks a bit different. But those would likely be fairly minor tweaks.

Realignment winners and losers​

As with anything, there will be winners and losers here.
From a competitive standpoint, Ohio State and Michigan State would have the toughest permanent schedules. But both teams already face those 3 opponents annually, so nothing would change in that regard.
The beneficiaries of the new setup would be the teams that are trapped in the bottom half of the East — Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland. The path to an 8- or 9-win season suddenly becomes manageable for those programs. A magical run to the Big Ten Championship Game might even come into play once a decade or so.
Things will become more difficult for every team in the West. But at this point, that’s what needs to happen.


Since the B1G split into geographic divisions in 2014, the West champion is 0-8 in the title game. That streak began with Ohio State’s 59-0 win over Wisconsin, and reached No. 8 with Michigan’s 42-3 win over Iowa.
If the Big Ten Championship Game was more even on the field, doing away with divisions would not feel like a necessity. But the way things have gone, the West champ frequently puts the entire conference at risk.
In an ideal world, the winner of the Big Ten title game will all but guarantee itself a spot in the College Football Playoff. Over the past 8 seasons, an upset by the West champ only would have served to prevent the B1G from reaching the CFP.

Revisionist history​

The most worrisome element of moving away from divisions is the potential for giving us a Michigan-Ohio State matchup in consecutive weeks. Without question, it diminishes the significance of The Game to have to come back and do it again a week later. (Though some might argue that the chance to be the first Ohio State or Michigan team to beat their rival twice in a single season would have a great deal of value.)
If the proposed rule change was in effect since the birth of the Big Ten Championship Game in 2012, the Buckeyes and Wolverines would have played in the 2018 and 2021 title games.
In total, 5 of the 11 championships matchups would have been altered. The would-be matchups are listed in parentheses.
  • 2021: Michigan vs. Iowa (Michigan vs. Ohio State)
  • 2020: Ohio State vs. Northwestern (Ohio State vs. Indiana)
  • 2019: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
  • 2018: Ohio State vs. Northwestern (Ohio State vs. Michigan)
  • 2017: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
  • 2016: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (Penn State vs. Ohio State)
  • 2015: Iowa vs. Michigan State
  • 2014: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (Ohio State vs. Michigan State)
  • 2013: Michigan State vs. Ohio State
  • 2012: Ohio State vs. Nebraska
  • 2011: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Interestingly, all 5 of those altered championship games are after the geographical split. The 3 years of the Leaders and Legends era produced an equitable split. But because equity came with stupid names, it did not stick.
Wisconsin and Northwestern would be the biggest overall losers with 2 championship game appearances removed. For the 2018 Wildcats, it would be due to their lone Big Ten loss coming against Michigan. And in 2020, Indiana carried a higher CFP ranking heading into championship week.
As for Wisconsin, I have a feeling Badgers fans would be willing to erase a “2014 Big Ten West champs” banner if it meant avoiding a 59-0 humiliation to the Buckeyes.

Will it happen?​

When the elimination of divisions was being discussed back in December, Barta mentioned that administrators were keeping an eye on CFP expansion. That element fell through. So it will be interesting to see what, if any, effect it will have on the Big Ten’s plans.
Of course, the Division I council wouldn’t be making this move without backing.
The ACC has already signaled that it wants to move away from divisions. For the Big Ten, it seems it will only be a matter of picking which year to start the new scheduling model. Given the need to add a non-conference game to the schedule, it would not be surprising if that’s done in conjunction with the ACC — or at least not too far behind.
The East and West Divisions are not extinct just yet. But they do officially belong on the endangered list.
Imagine that.


the supposed match ups are irrelevant, is just shows the West was very balanced, no dominate teams, and the East is very top and bottom heavy. the East-West games have been pretty even over the years.
 

The big ten will be mindful that a 300k difference per school isn’t worth it to cause long term damage to the brand too.

So I don’t think it’s all money
Are you citing something in particular with regards to divisions vs no divisions is only worth $300k per school per year?

What I've seen is the new media deal taking each school from $50M per year up towards $100M per year.

IF (not saying it is, I don't know) that is contingent on going to no divisions in football, then that is what they will do.
 

Are you citing something in particular with regards to divisions vs no divisions is only worth $300k per school per year?

What I've seen is the new media deal taking each school from $50M per year up towards $100M per year.

IF (not saying it is, I don't know) that is contingent on going to no divisions in football, then that is what they will do.
The number is going up regardless of what they do to divisions.
that projection is with them having divisions
 

Honestly, I like 9 conf games over 8. given a choice, I would rather see the Gophers play a conference opponent as opposed to Directional State.

and, the conference games tend to draw more fans, creating a better atmosphere.

If they do go back to 8 conf games, then I want at least 1 non-conf game against a P5 opponent. I'm not saying they have to play Alabama or Clemson - just give me a game against a team with a recognizable name.

as far as the divisions, I don't really care as long as the Gophers play IA, WI and Neb every year.
with all due respect to tradition, the Little Brown Jug has lost a lot of its luster, so I really don't care whether they play Mich every year.
 

Honestly, I like 9 conf games over 8. given a choice, I would rather see the Gophers play a conference opponent as opposed to Directional State.

and, the conference games tend to draw more fans, creating a better atmosphere.

If they do go back to 8 conf games, then I want at least 1 non-conf game against a P5 opponent. I'm not saying they have to play Alabama or Clemson - just give me a game against a team with a recognizable name.

as far as the divisions, I don't really care as long as the Gophers play IA, WI and Neb every year.
with all due respect to tradition, the Little Brown Jug has lost a lot of its luster, so I really don't care whether they play Mich every year.
I kind of think even if they get rid of divisions they won’t really change division scheduling very much.


basically redesign divisions every 2 years for scheduling but don’t call them divisions. (This is the only way to avoid silly 3+ way tie scenarios). Can lock people on a two year cycle to not totally mess up the whole schedule.

I personally think the big loses in shuffling divisions will be Michigan, Michigan state and Penn state.

Basically those three by virtue of the division set up are guaranteed to be top 15 if they’re solid and 7 wins if they’re decent. Those teams will now have much deeper schedules and they will probably take more losses and be programs more akin to Wi, ia, MN, Ne as opposed to the way they see themselves and the media likes to talk of them “Ohio state lite”


The funny part is it is Michigan state and Penn state pushing for this when IMO the east inflates their national reputation and gives them an excuse not to make the championship game. Michigan state and Penn state become tougher jobs now because the excuse to not make the championship game is no longer there.




For example: play your “division” plus 3 crossovers but no divisional standings.

Year 1 and 2 scheduling divisions
A
Ohio state - lock Penn state
Michigan
Michigan state
Indiana
Northwestern
Purdue
Illinois

B
Penn state - lock Ohio state
Maryland
Rutgers
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Nebraska

Year 3/4 scheduling divisions

A
Ohio state - lock Penn state
Michigan
Michigan state
Minnesota - lock iowa
Wisconsin - lock Nebraska
Purdue
Indiana

B
Nebraska - lock Wisconsin
Iowa - lock Minnesota
Penn state - lock Ohio state
Rutgers
Maryland
Illinois
Northwestern
 
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Honestly I would be fine with no divisions if we had 2 or 3 protected games. I'd like seeing the other teams in the B1G a bit more often.
 

Honestly I would be fine with no divisions if we had 2 or 3 protected games. I'd like seeing the other teams in the B1G a bit more often.
We will see Rutgers, Indiana, Ohio state, Michigan state, Michigan, Penn state more often

We will see northwestern, Illinois, Purdue (and I would guess Nebraska) less often.

Which could be more fun some years and less fun other years.
 


Honestly, I like 9 conf games over 8. given a choice, I would rather see the Gophers play a conference opponent as opposed to Directional State.

and, the conference games tend to draw more fans, creating a better atmosphere.

If they do go back to 8 conf games, then I want at least 1 non-conf game against a P5 opponent. I'm not saying they have to play Alabama or Clemson - just give me a game against a team with a recognizable name.

as far as the divisions, I don't really care as long as the Gophers play IA, WI and Neb every year.
with all due respect to tradition, the Little Brown Jug has lost a lot of its luster, so I really don't care whether they play Mich every year.
Alliance would do just that...eight conference games and two non-con against ACC PAC12.
 


I loved that idea, as a fan, but the shot callers have shot this down. My wild guess is TV said no. Didn't want to pay huge $$$$ for games like Washington State vs Purdue, etc.

https://saturdaytradition.com/big-t...ns-essentially-over-among-acc-b1g-and-pac-12/

End of The Alliance? Ohio State AD says scheduling conversations essentially over among ACC, B1G and Pac-12

I actually think it may have been more coach driven. I'm sure some coaches were not thrilled with the idea of at least 2 P5 conference games each year.
 




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