Syracuse: Pregame Thread

Gopher07

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We're 2-0 when I start pregame threads this year so let's keep it up!

Should be our toughest game yet and given the name of the school should give the Gophers more cache than any of our other non-conference games if they can come away with a win.
 

The Gophers should win this game. Western Michigan is probably a better team than Syracuse and it's a home game again this week. I would expect them to win by about 10, but it's not going to be an easy game.
 

Syracuse is a bigger name, but I'm not sure if they're better than WMU or not. Pressure on Nassib and better defense against the run need to be there. This is Syracuse's first away game of the season. Hopefully people scoop up the $10 tickets, spend the day getting rowdy and make it tough for the visitors on Saturday night.
 

I'm sure MV will answer this later in the week, but is Syracuse more of a 3-step drop or 5-7 step drop passing offense?
 

Theyll pick a couple spots to go down the field but they throw a lot and mostly quick.
 


Theyll pick a couple spots to go down the field but they throw a lot and mostly quick.

This is what I gather from my limited watching of them as well. Should be a very similar offense to Western Michigan. Nassib could be better than Carder though.
 

After games against Northwestern and USC, and with the trip to Minneapolis looming, I suspect Syracuse fell victim to a "trap game" mentality in looking so sluggish against Stony Brook. The Orange left a lot of points on the field, twice getting stuffed at the goal line on 4th down.

With Shortell under center from the start, it will be interesting to see what approach the Gophers take on offense. Syracuse is an up-tempo team, so will the Gophers try to pound the ball and chew some clock, giving the defense a rest, or let Max air it out some?
 

What stands out to me in Syracuse's stats (http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/rankingSummary?year=2012&org=688) so far:

They're really good at throwing the ball, to the tune of 380 yards per game.
Their punting game is atrocious. They punt for a 42-yard average, but have given up 177 yards on 4 returns so far this year (a 44-yard average return on punts that are returned).
Their pass defense is good on the surface - giving up just 165 yards per game - but their pass efficiency defense is awful.

I think it will come down to how well our pass D can live up to their season so far, and special teams. If they can show up and play like the #5 pass-efficiency defense in the country, we can shut down their passing attack. And if we can take advantage of their questionable special teams as well, we should have an advantage.
 

Their pass defense is good on the surface - giving up just 165 yards per game - but their pass efficiency defense is awful.

Against USC, Syracuse was determined to not let Matt Barkley beat them, and Stony Brook simply doesn't throw the ball, so the pass efficiency number is closer to reality than the passing yards per game.
 



Against USC, Syracuse was determined to not let Matt Barkley beat them, and Stony Brook simply doesn't throw the ball, so the pass efficiency number is closer to reality than the passing yards per game.

Should play well for us as our pass efficiency is through the roof so far.
 



They seem to be blowing our injury situation way out of proportion. That's legitimate though considering when most teams lose their starting QB there is a panic. I think Syracuse is in for a nice surprise.

And won't Shabazz be healthy next week? He was questionable this week. I would imagine another week of rest can get him on the field.
 



They seem to be blowing our injury situation way out of proportion. That's legitimate though considering when most teams lose their starting QB there is a panic. I think Syracuse is in for a nice surprise.

And won't Shabazz be healthy next week? He was questionable this week. I would imagine another week of rest can get him on the field.

I'm pretty sure he's gonna be out for this one as well, with a dislocated toe. I think he's out for the next couple weeks at least.

I don't think the Syracuse coaching staff and players will be in for a surprise. Maybe the fans, but that coaching staff will be prepared for Shortell out there. Now whether they can stop it is another thing, but they won't be caught off guard, unless Max ends up running 15 times for 100 yards lol.
 

Thought I heard Kill say Shabazz was still gong to be out next week. Don't think that will matter. Glad the Syracus fans are over-confident, playing their first road game of the year. The game should look much like the WMU game with a play here or there decidng it in the end. Since Sagarin has us ranked higher in the computer ranking, I'd look for a field goal difference one way or the other.
 

I'm pretty sure he's gonna be out for this one as well, with a dislocated toe. I think he's out for the next couple weeks at least.

I don't think the Syracuse coaching staff and players will be in for a surprise. Maybe the fans, but that coaching staff will be prepared for Shortell out there. Not whether they can stop it is another thing, but they won't be caught off guard, unless Max ends up running 15 times for 100 yards lol.

It would be funny if Kill and Limegrover come up with a game plan that calls for Shortell to rush quite a bit. Since I assume Syracuse will be expecting us to come out passing with Gray injured.
 

I'm pretty sure he's gonna be out for this one as well, with a dislocated toe. I think he's out for the next couple weeks at least.

I don't think the Syracuse coaching staff and players will be in for a surprise. Maybe the fans, but that coaching staff will be prepared for Shortell out there. Now whether they can stop it is another thing, but they won't be caught off guard, unless Max ends up running 15 times for 100 yards lol.

Alright good to know on Shabazz... Looks like it might not be till homecoming that we are healthy again. Which isn't the worst thing in the world. We've been a little unfortunate with the injury bug with Harbison, Shabazz, Mottla, and now Gray. But it's nothing that can't be overcome.
 



For what its worth, I think the Gophers are not only a better balanced offense with Max Shortell but he throws the best ball I have seen from any Minnesota QB. Not Hankison, Not Carlson, Not Hohensee, Not Sauter, and no one in the past 20 years. They can lineup in power I and run power, play fake, or sprint draw. And when it comes to throwing the ball, it is best to throw it when they don't expect it. A Heavy Dose of Donnell will bring a safety down into the box. When Max had his best success against WMU they were still 8 or 9 in the box. We want to run it till they stop it. Then unleash a Max ball fake and throw in the intermediate area. 18-25 yards. This is where A.J. has been most effective. This stretches the linebackers back in coverage. And they will retreat the next time his takes a drop, wait. And hand it to Donnell on a draw play. And if I miss my guess Max will throw a couple of screens, to either or both Kirkwood and Maye.
If we are hitting on 8 cylinders as we were for a quarter and a half it should be enough to beat Syracuse. But whether its defense with some picks, a punt return, or special teams play. BEAT SYRACUSE!
 


Double Check Sagrin. You are using Predictor and the home field in 3.45. The predictor difference is 1.89 and the pure points would be 5.34. Now if you use the Elo Chess the home field is 2.53 and the difference is 7.30. The Elo Chess is 9.88.

Oops, you're right. Sagarin is -4.5 for the Gophers using predictor, Gophers 73.68-69.34. Home field is 3.45, Gophers have 70.23, Cuse at 69.34 (difference of 0.89, not 1.89).
 

Do they have a quick 3-5 step drop passing game or can we put a little pressure on their QB?
This will be a good challenge!
 

Do they have a quick 3-5 step drop passing game or can we put a little pressure on their QB?
This will be a good challenge!

Nassib is averaging 7.75 yards per attempt, so it's definitely more quick passing than us (Carder WMU is at 6.39, Gray at a shade over 9). They don't give up many sacks as a result (3 sacks against in 3 games) so I imagine it will be difficult to get pressure on the QB most of the time. We need to tackle well in space to avoid giving up YAC.
 

For what its worth, I think ...Max Shortell...throws the best ball I have seen from any Minnesota QB. Not Hankison, Not Carlson, Not Hohensee, Not Sauter, and no one in the past 20 years.

If we're just talking arm strength, I think it was probably Tony Mortenson.
 

I Kirkwoodland rushes for 100 and we approach 200 as a team, Max will have a monster night. I think it may be his coming out party...a boy can hope.
 

Geez, everyone but a few on the Syracuse site seem to think the Orange will beat us handily. At least most here think it will be a push.
 



Link? I gotta read this!!!!

A few comments I found doing a quick browse. Overall it looks like no one is talking about the game really, though.

http://syracusefan.com/threads/minnesota.32077/

more confident than ever that we win that game by ten

I don't agree with the assessment that it is a bad matchup. Minnesota isn't very good, and have benefitted IMMENSELY from playing the schedule they've played. Their entire offense is based around Gray, who is a tremendous athlete. If he is hobbled, that is huge for us, because 50% of their rushing yardage is amassed by Gray scrambling after broken plays.

I really like our chances in this week's game, with or without Gray.
 




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