STrib: Gophers men's basketball team can't wait to unveil redshirt freshman Kadyn Betts

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GoodasGold said:
"He had spurts where he looked good," Johnson said.

Hoping he can transform those spurts into more sustained occurrences and ever-lengthening interludes. 🤞
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He's 17. Don't worry about it.
 

Holy Man said:
No offense intended, but this sounds like the beginning of a "hope based on a player we have no idea what he can do" discussion. We have had a lot of those over the years. On the surface, the hope seems based on a "since we haven't seen him, he might not be bad." I've done it before, but it's not great analysis.
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Let's confine the discussion to Lou Hudson, McHale, Bobby Jackson, Flip ........
 

Holy Man said:
No offense intended, but this sounds like the beginning of a "hope based on a player we have no idea what he can do" discussion. We have had a lot of those over the years. On the surface, the hope seems based on a "since we haven't seen him, he might not be bad." I've done it before, but it's not great analysis.
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That’s exactly what it is. But I’ll take a guy with some ability we haven’t seen over much of what we have seen. Because he might be good/great. We know TT, Samuels, etc we’re bad.
 

eker0016 said:
So in this scenario where Battle plays the same number of minutes but takes 0 shots all season, do other teams still assign him the same amount of defensive attention?
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It’s tough to accurately assess what the team would have done with Battles shots. My original point and one that is a fact is his shooting percentages on 2s and 3s were lower than the teams average. I’m not really sure how that can be argued.
 

I'm not super surprised by this, his tape looked good and I actually preferred it to Nolan Winter. Right now, I think he's a 4 with some range and he'll pair nicely with Payne. I think it's really good for him that he'll have to earn his minutes battling Olo-Joseph, Ihnen, Fox, and Garcia for some of those minutes.
 


At least most of them are still alive, but lacking eligibility I think.
 


Holy Man said:
No offense intended, but this sounds like the beginning of a "hope based on a player we have no idea what he can do" discussion. We have had a lot of those over the years. On the surface, the hope seems based on a "since we haven't seen him, he might not be bad." I've done it before, but it's not great analysis.
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This is the time of year for that kind of stuff. We have enough people leaning the other way and taking a negative view of everything. Gotta counter act that with some hope that things could actually work out. :)
 

Holy Man said:
No offense intended, but this sounds like the beginning of a "hope based on a player we have no idea what he can do" discussion. We have had a lot of those over the years. On the surface, the hope seems based on a "since we haven't seen him, he might not be bad." I've done it before, but it's not great analysis.
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This 100%.
 




UpAndUnder43 said:
It’s tough to accurately assess what the team would have done with Battles shots. My original point and one that is a fact is his shooting percentages on 2s and 3s were lower than the teams average. I’m not really sure how that can be argued.
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I’m not arguing that his % was not lower than the team average. You said “If Battle didnt take a shot all season, the Gophers would have shot a better %. Thats a fact.”

So I’m wondering in this scenario where he doesn’t take a shot, is everything else held constant? Battle is still out there? Everybody else takes the exact same number of shots? Or do the other guys now soak up his 190 3 point shots?

I agree with you that we won’t miss Battle as much as some think because he didn’t bring a lot to the table besides scoring, which he didn’t do very well this year. I think if he has a role as the 6th man at OSU and shoots something like 3-4 3’s per game and defenses aren’t keying on him, he’s going to shoot better though. He was miscast as the go to guy here and took lots of really bad shots.
 

Holy Man said:
No offense intended, but this sounds like the beginning of a "hope based on a player we have no idea what he can do" discussion. We have had a lot of those over the years. On the surface, the hope seems based on a "since we haven't seen him, he might not be bad." I've done it before, but it's not great analysis.
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Ben comes off desperate....we haven't got much going right now. Nobody has seen Betts play.
Lets hype him up and get some good Gopher basketball vibes out there. Nobody will know.
That's unfair to Betts even if he is good. Just adds unnecessary pressure for him to perform.
If he is good we will find out quick enough come November.
 

eker0016 said:
I’m not arguing that his % was not lower than the team average. You said “If Battle didnt take a shot all season, the Gophers would have shot a better %. Thats a fact.”

So I’m wondering in this scenario where he doesn’t take a shot, is everything else held constant? Battle is still out there? Everybody else takes the exact same number of shots? Or do the other guys now soak up his 190 3 point shots?

I agree with you that we won’t miss Battle as much as some think because he didn’t bring a lot to the table besides scoring, which he didn’t do very well this year. I think if he has a role as the 6th man at OSU and shoots something like 3-4 3’s per game and defenses aren’t keying on him, he’s going to shoot better though. He was miscast as the go to guy here and took lots of really bad shots.
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My hypothetical was Battle’s shots just disappeared. Obviously no one can know who would have taken those shots. He provided nothing while playing 36 minutes per game. It’s a dumb hypothetical.

I don’t think teams did anything special to defend him. They had a guy guard him but I don’t remember any gimmick defenses or the other teams best defenders keying on him. I don’t recall a ton of double teams for him. I think he’ll be missed in the sense that he looked and seemed good at times.
 





60's Guy said:
Ben comes off desperate....we haven't got much going right now. Nobody has seen Betts play.
Lets hype him up and get some good Gopher basketball vibes out there. Nobody will know.
That's unfair to Betts even if he is good. Just adds unnecessary pressure for him to perform.
If he is good we will find out quick enough come November.
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The interview was with Betts. Most of the quotes were from him. Did he sound like a kid under pressure? Extreme duress?

Or did he sound like the best four years of his life are just ahead and he relishes getting it on?

The kid knows what he did in practice against guys two or three years older.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
My hypothetical was Battle’s shots just disappeared. Obviously no one can know who would have taken those shots. He provided nothing while playing 36 minutes per game. It’s a dumb hypothetical.

I don’t think teams did anything special to defend him. They had a guy guard him but I don’t remember any gimmick defenses or the other teams best defenders keying on him. I don’t recall a ton of double teams for him. I think he’ll be missed in the sense that he looked and seemed good at times.
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Why would you double a guy who can only go one way with the ball? No need for that.
 


Scottsdale Gopher said:
So your plan is to increase shooting percentages by simply not shooting... I look forward to your career as a coach.

We're talking about two different things: I'm not claiming he was an above average shooter, I'm saying that his shots have to be replaced and historically (there are piles and piles of data on this) shooting percentages fall as usage rates rise. Replacing his shots increases other players' usage rates, and they would almost certainly shoot worse as a result.

An extreme example: Ramberg shot almost 70% this year. Why didn't we just give Battle's shots to him? Surely our overall shooting percentage would have gone up!
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Yes, his shooting percentage improves by not shooting - he took many forced, ill-advised shots early in the shot clock. He was not a smart or efficient player at all, and the ball stopped when he was on the court. The mistake Ben made, other than one game, was not sitting him more often when he took those shots. However, they were often so short due to injuries he didn’t have a choice. Battle benefitted a great deal from Willis his first year here, never drawing the top perimeter defender.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
My hypothetical was Battle’s shots just disappeared. Obviously no one can know who would have taken those shots. He provided nothing while playing 36 minutes per game. It’s a dumb hypothetical.

I don’t think teams did anything special to defend him. They had a guy guard him but I don’t remember any gimmick defenses or the other teams best defenders keying on him. I don’t recall a ton of double teams for him. I think he’ll be missed in the sense that he looked and seemed good at times.
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The point I am driving at -- if Battle was not taking any shots, do you think everyone else's shooting % would stay the same?

Again, I agree that Battle played poorly last year. Him leaving the team doesn't mean everybody else just scales up their rate stats to their expanded minutes/shot attempts. I was very pleased with Joshua Ola-Joseph and I am excited to see how he grows next year, but I won't be surprised if his shooting % drops as he gets more than 5.7 shots per game.
 

eker0016 said:
The point I am driving at -- if Battle was not taking any shots, do you think everyone else's shooting % would stay the same?

Again, I agree that Battle played poorly last year. Him leaving the team doesn't mean everybody else just scales up their rate stats to their expanded minutes/shot attempts. I was very pleased with Joshua Ola-Joseph and I am excited to see how he grows next year, but I won't be surprised if his shooting % drops as he gets more than 5.7 shots per game.
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I get what you are saying and you have to be wary of small sample sizes....but once you log enough shots your percentage should stay pretty consistent regardless of the total number of shots you take.

For example, trusting JOJ 3 point percentage of 38% on just 21 attempts is not wise. Garcia's 35% on 87 attempts however is much more likely to stay consistent even if he were to add another 50 attempts.

Think of it in terms of free throws. If a player is an established 80% free throw shooter he is likely to hit 8 of every 10 free throws he takes. Doesn't matter if he takes 50 or 100.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I get what you are saying and you have to be wary of small sample sizes....but once you log enough shots your percentage should stay pretty consistent regardless of the total number of shots you take.

For example, trusting JOJ 3 point percentage of 38% on just 21 attempts is not wise. Garcia's 35% on 87 attempts however is much more likely to stay consistent even if he were to add another 50 attempts.

Think of it in terms of free throws. If a player is an established 80% free throw shooter he is likely to hit 8 of every 10 free throws he takes. Doesn't matter if he takes 50 or 100.
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These and all other skills are dynamic, not static.
 

Tucker32 said:
Yes, his shooting percentage improves by not shooting - he took many forced, ill-advised shots early in the shot clock. He was not a smart or efficient player at all, and the ball stopped when he was on the court. The mistake Ben made, other than one game, was not sitting him more often when he took those shots. However, they were often so short due to injuries he didn’t have a choice. Battle benefitted a great deal from Willis his first year here, never drawing the top perimeter defender.
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However, they were often so short due to injuries/not filling all schollies/poor roster construction he didn’t have a choice.

There, I fixed it for you.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I get what you are saying and you have to be wary of small sample sizes....but once you log enough shots your percentage should stay pretty consistent regardless of the total number of shots you take.

For example, trusting JOJ 3 point percentage of 38% on just 21 attempts is not wise. Garcia's 35% on 87 attempts however is much more likely to stay consistent even if he were to add another 50 attempts.

Think of it in terms of free throws. If a player is an established 80% free throw shooter he is likely to hit 8 of every 10 free throws he takes. Doesn't matter if he takes 50 or 100.
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Free throws are totally different, because they’re the same shot whether you take 50 or 100. You’re assuming that you can add on as many shots as you want of the same quality as the players have been taking.

If a player is taking 1 3 a game, it’s generally going to be a shot that’s of fairly low difficulty, open, in rhythm, and you can be selective. Even if you wanted to take 5 3s a game, you’re not going to have that many opportunities for the same shot, and so the average shot difficulty rises, and your percentage goes down.

There’s a reason that star players and great scorers don’t actually shoot that much higher of a percentage than other players - they just have to be able to shoot that same percentage while taking harder shots.
 

skyman31 said:
Free throws are totally different, because they’re the same shot whether you take 50 or 100. You’re assuming that you can add on as many shots as you want of the same quality as the players have been taking.

If a player is taking 1 3 a game, it’s generally going to be a shot that’s of fairly low difficulty, open, in rhythm, and you can be selective. Even if you wanted to take 5 3s a game, you’re not going to have that many opportunities for the same shot, and so the average shot difficulty rises, and your percentage goes down.

There’s a reason that star players and great scorers don’t actually shoot that much higher of a percentage than other players - they just have to be able to shoot that same percentage while taking harder shots.
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If the guys taking limited numbers of mostly decent shots all of a sudden are taking more shots because Battle is not on the floor, team percentage goes up because you will be rid of the crazy, I'll-advised bad shots Battle was forcing up.
 

Dakota2 said:
If the guys taking limited numbers of mostly decent shots all of a sudden are taking more shots because Battle is not on the floor, team percentage goes up because you will be rid of the crazy, I'll-advised bad shots Battle was forcing up.
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It is actually pointless discussing whether Battle is a good shooter or a poor shooter. We already know.

The season he took mostly good shots he was a good shooter. The year he forced far too many crazy shots he was not.
 

Dakota2 said:
It is actually pointless discussing whether Battle is a good shooter or a poor shooter. We already know.

The season he took mostly good shots he was a good shooter. The year he forced far too many crazy shots he was not.
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A lot like Gabe. Battle has the ability to be a good shooter but there is no doubt that he was not a good shooter last year for most of the season and although some of it may have been a function of defense, a lot of it was just him flat out missing open shots or taking ill advised low percentage shots.
 

Dakota2 said:
It is actually pointless discussing whether Battle is a good shooter or a poor shooter. We already know.

The season he took mostly good shots he was a good shooter. The year he forced far too many crazy shots he was not.
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What's pointless is telling others what to discuss.
 


skyman31 said:
Free throws are totally different, because they’re the same shot whether you take 50 or 100. You’re assuming that you can add on as many shots as you want of the same quality as the players have been taking.

If a player is taking 1 3 a game, it’s generally going to be a shot that’s of fairly low difficulty, open, in rhythm, and you can be selective. Even if you wanted to take 5 3s a game, you’re not going to have that many opportunities for the same shot, and so the average shot difficulty rises, and your percentage goes down.

There’s a reason that star players and great scorers don’t actually shoot that much higher of a percentage than other players - they just have to be able to shoot that same percentage while taking harder shots.
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Statistically there is a small difference in visualizing free throw practice and shooting FT practice.
 

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