STATE OF THE PROGRAM: Where is Gophers football right now?

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STATE OF THE PROGRAM: Where is Gophers football right now?​

By Tony Liebert

STATE OF THE PROGRAM: Where is Gophers football right now? - GopherHole.com

–> Follow @Tony Liebert on Twitter Deservedly so, many people are questioning whether P.J. Fleck is the answer for the Gophers football program, after dropping three straight games. So, rather than telling you my opinion on what Mark Coyle and Minnesota’s athletic department “should” do, I...
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Deservedly so, many people are questioning whether P.J. Fleck is the answer for the Gophers football program, after dropping three straight games. So, rather than telling you my opinion on what Mark Coyle and Minnesota’s athletic department “should” do, I thought it would be a great time to analyze where the program currently is. Philip John Fleck Jr. has been the head coach for nearly seven full seasons at this point, which is more than enough time to form an opinion on how he runs a program and what a Fleck-led program will look like.

Rivalry Games​

I believe that the biggest feather in PJ Fleck’s cap is his success vs. Wisconsin and Iowa. It obviously took a while for the Hawkeyes side of that argument to get going, but beating your rivals is very important in the sport of college football, especially at a program like Minnesota. Their current stretch against Wisconsin is the program’s best in 30+ years and Fleck deserves immense credit for that. He has pretty easily outperformed the past three regimes, which certainly means a lot for the current state of the program.

Last 4 multi-year Gophers HCs
  • P.J. Fleck (Total Record: 4-9/36.3%)
    • Iowa: 1-6
    • Wisconsin: 3-3
  • Glen Mason (Total Record: 6-14/30%)
    • Iowa: 4-6
    • Wisconsin: 2-8
  • Jerry Kill (Total Record: 2-6/25%)
    • Iowa: 2-2
    • Wisconsin: 0-4
  • Tim Brewster (Total Record: 0-7/0%)
    • Iowa: 0-3
    • Wisconsin: 0-4

Bowl Games​

From 2000-2016, the Gophers played in 13 bowl games, missing the postseason only four times, which comes out to playing in the postseason 76.47% of the time. Since Fleck arrived in 2017, they have played in four bowl games, which is a 66.6% mark. With a loss this Saturday vs. Wisconsin that number would drop to 57.14%. Bowl games are obviously not a linear distinction of success, but for a program like Minnesota in the modern college football world, I think it’s a very appropriate expectation. For a “developmental program” like Fleck considers his Gophers, playing in a bowl game gives your team another month or more of full practice, so no matter where or who you’re playing it can be imperative to continue momentum (something Fleck does not believe in) as a program.

Last 4 multi-year Gophers HCs
  • Jerry Kill (5 seasons/4 bowl games): 80%
  • Glen Mason (10 seasons/7 bowl games): 70%
  • PJ Fleck (6 seasons/4 bowl games): 66.6%
  • Tim Brewster (4 seasons/2 bowl games): 50%
Much of the P.J. Fleck truthers will start with the fact that he’s played in four straight bowl games in the last four “full seasons,” more reason why I think missing one this week would be such a tough pill to swallow. I myself am a little tired of hearing excuses, such as the COVID season not counting, if it counts for most other programs across the country I personally think it should count for Fleck as well. More reason why Saturday vs. Wisconsin could be one of the most important games during his tenure.

Recruiting​

Modern recruiting metrics have obviously evolved immensely across the span of the Gophers’ past four coaching regimes, but 247sports’ numbers go back to 2000, so that is where will look at the Gophers’ success on the trail.

Last 4 multi-year Gophers HCs

  • Tim Brewster (4 offseasons): Average Rank: 38.5
    • 2007: 48th
    • 2008: 25th
    • 2009: 32nd
    • 2010: 49th
  • PJ Fleck (7 offseasons): 47.1
    • 2017: 60th
    • 2018: 38th
    • 2019: 49th
    • 2020: 39th
    • 2021: 39th
    • 2022: 52nd
    • 2023: 53rd
  • Glen Mason (2000-2006): Average Rank: 53.6
    • 2000: 41st
    • 2001: 49th
    • 2002: 71st
    • 2003: n/a
    • 2004: 52nd
    • 2005: 52nd
    • 2006: 57th
  • Jerry Kill (5 offseasons): Average Rank: 59.8
    • 2011: 55th
    • 2012: 59th
    • 2013: 66th
    • 2014: 57th
    • 2015: 62nd

Fleck has been a defintie upgrade in recruiting rankings and performance against Wisconsin/Iowa compared to the previous regime. It seems as if Fleck’s recruiting has gotten progressively worse, only showing how important the next 12 months for this program will be as his current 2024 class ranks 30th best in the country, which would be the best Gophers’ class since 2008.

Wins​

While I do believe that success in college football should not always be measured by wins and losses, at the end of the day it’s a football game and everything you’re doing as a program is hoping to win as many games as possible. Plain winning percentage, might be the biggest feather in PJ Fleck’s cap. He has led Gophers football to its most successful stretch in maybe 70 years, something that he obviously deserves immense credit for.

Last 4 multi-year Gophers HCs

  • PJ Fleck (49-32/59.7%)
  • Glen Mason (64-57/52.9%)
  • Jerry Kill (29-29/50%)
  • Tim Brewster (15-30/31.1%)

Conclusion​

Unfortunately, Minnesota is the level of program that will have down seasons, no matter who the head coach is. The frustration from this season obviously starts with the fact that it did not have to be as down as they’ve made it, but P.J. Fleck is still one of the most successful coaches in program history. In my opinion, a loss to Wisconsin would truly warm up his seat. This was always meant to be a rebuilding year, so a 5-7 season would just put that much more pressure on 2024. If I was the Athletic Director I would see the 2024 season as a do or die year for Fleck and he would have to show you some evidence that 2023 was nothing more than a blip in the radar. I believe that he still gives the Minnesota Gophers their best opportunity to consistently compete in the short term and for that reason, the program is in a positive spot, but it would be naive to say that he doesn’t deserve at least a little criticism, because there is no doubt that this season has been a step in the wrong direction.
 

Tough to compare. Impossible to say anyone is the best coach. Mason got robbed by not being able to coach at the bank, never know what could have happened. Mason had huge potential had he been able to recruit the bank.

This Program is in the danger zone and next year is critical for Fleck.
 

GopherHole Staff said:

Bowl Games​

From 2000-2016, the Gophers played in 13 bowl games, missing the postseason only four times, which comes out to playing in the postseason 76.47% of the time. Since Fleck arrived in 2017, they have played in four bowl games, which is a 66.6% mark. With a loss this Saturday vs. Wisconsin that number would drop to 57.14%. Bowl games are obviously not a linear distinction of success, but for a program like Minnesota in the modern college football world, I think it’s a very appropriate expectation. For a “developmental program” like Fleck considers his Gophers, playing in a bowl game gives your team another month or more of full practice, so no matter where or who you’re playing it can be imperative to continue momentum (something Fleck does not believe in) as a program.

Last 4 multi-year Gophers HCs
  • Jerry Kill (5 seasons/4 bowl games): 80%
  • Glen Mason (10 seasons/7 bowl games): 70%
  • PJ Fleck (6 seasons/4 bowl games): 66.6%
  • Tim Brewster (4 seasons/2 bowl games): 50%
Much of the P.J. Fleck truthers will start with the fact that he’s played in four straight bowl games in the last four “full seasons,” more reason why I think missing one this week would be such a tough pill to swallow. I myself am a little tired of hearing excuses, such as the COVID season not counting, if it counts for most other programs across the country I personally think it should count for Fleck as well. More reason why Saturday vs. Wisconsin could be one of the most important games during his tenure.
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To be perfectly fair, Minnesota WAS bowl eligible in 2020 if memory serves me right and the program opted not to play in one. Additionally, if we want that season to count, Minnesota finished 3-4, which is below .500, but not that far below. Had there been a full schedule it's arguably the Gophers could have finished with a winning record, but as it is, one game below .500 isn't bad for the COVID season.

Also, this list leaves out the actual bowl record. Fleck is 4-0 in the post season. I know that many point out that these bowls don't matter much, but still, it's four consecutive wins against Power 5 opponents.

As for the overall state of the program, I think the verdict will have to wait until after the season. If Minnesota beats Wisconsin and earns a bowl victory, it will be another winning season for the program, which is a fairly good, above average track record I'd say, but not in the upper echelon.

If the Gophers lose Saturday, I'd say the Gophers program is fairly mediocre with occasional highs, kind of where it's been since Mason. A lot of seasons between 5 and 7 wins with the occasional 8+ victory year.
 

On the recruiting side, how the Gophers rank relative to other programs in the BIG can't be ignored.

The attention and resources behind recruiting ranking are much greater today. Comparing recruiting rankings from 20 years ago to today is a fools errand.

No one can say that Fleck hasn't delivered better class ranks. Anyone want to argue team talent was actually better under Brewster?

The numbers tell a part of the picture.

Where the talent ranks relative ti the rest of the B1G shows minor fluctuations from coach to coach but a long record of classes in the bottom hslf of the B1G consistently.

Regardless of the ranking year to year we've been from 10-14 the last 12 years in the B1G. Hardly anything to crow about.
 

caliGopher said:
No one can say that Fleck hasn't delivered better class ranks. Anyone want to argue team talent was actually better under Brewster?
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For real! I am SO tired of people comparing Fleck to Brewster because both are known for their speech, equating both to a used car salesman at the U.

Let's look at the FACTS. Fleck arrived at Minnesota WITH head coaching experience, including a 13-1 season, including a conference title and a NY6 berth. Brewster was a tight ends coach in the NFL.

Fleck has three 9+ win seasons, Brewster had zero. Fleck has four bowl wins, Brewster had zero. Fleck took the team to a New Year's Day bowl (and won by the way), Brewster didn't. Fleck has had multiple players be drafted in the NFL. Brewster had, what, Decker and that's it?

Compare Fleck to Mason and Kill, with 2003 and 2014 coming to mind, sure. Those arguments can be made. But bringing up Brewster and Fleck on the same level in terms of coaching background and accomplishments is absurd.
 


The general consensus is Fleck is a better coach than Brewster and deserves another chance after a down season. I would agree with that take as well. I would not mind re-tooling the offense a bit and getting the defense back to where it was during the Iowa and MSU victories is a paramount priority. Also while I am at it, could we take a look at the special teams?? Maybe the return teams should get looked at -- I think it would be pretty easy to improve on that one!!!
 

IceBoxGopher said:
For real! I am SO tired of people comparing Fleck to Brewster because both are known for their speech, equating both to a used car salesman at the U.

Let's look at the FACTS. Fleck arrived at Minnesota WITH head coaching experience, including a 13-1 season, including a conference title and a NY6 berth. Brewster was a tight ends coach in the NFL.

Fleck has three 9+ win seasons, Brewster had zero. Fleck has four bowl wins, Brewster had zero. Fleck took the team to a New Year's Day bowl (and won by the way), Brewster didn't. Fleck has had multiple players be drafted in the NFL. Brewster had, what, Decker and that's it?

Compare Fleck to Mason and Kill, with 2003 and 2014 coming to mind, sure. Those arguments can be made. But bringing up Brewster and Fleck on the same level in terms of coaching background and accomplishments is absurd.
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A used car salesman is someone who can follow you into a revolving door and come out ahead of you. Do you think Fleck is THAT slick?
 


Recruiting is a big challenge. The Gophers need more impact players. I like that they are making inroads in keeping in-state talent. They need to continue to develop players like Boye Mafe, Cody Lindenberg, etc. They need to recruit more players like Rashod Bateman and others. They are short of one or two impact players that could have helped them win a title.

The Transfer Portal and NIL complicate the situation.

Coaching needs to improve in key areas. The Offense needs to improve and be more dynamic. Special teams need to improve in some areas. It boils down to having more talented players too.

The Michigan game underscored the dearth of talent to compete at a higher level.

It will be more challenging next season with the new Big Ten expansion.
 



Next year will start the big 7 PSU, OSU, Mich, USC, UCLA, Wash and Ore and little 11. The CCG will be the 2 top teams. What is the likelihood that one of the little 11 will play in the CCG in the next (few, several, many) many years. The little 11 will likely be competing against each other for the foreseeable future. I have a hard time seeing some schools/boosters doing the investment necessary in order to keep up with the Joneses.
 

IceBoxGopher said:
To be perfectly fair, Minnesota WAS bowl eligible in 2020 if memory serves me right and the program opted not to play in one. Additionally, if we want that season to count, Minnesota finished 3-4, which is below .500, but not that far below. Had there been a full schedule it's arguably the Gophers could have finished with a winning record, but as it is, one game below .500 isn't bad for the COVID season.

Also, this list leaves out the actual bowl record. Fleck is 4-0 in the post season. I know that many point out that these bowls don't matter much, but still, it's four consecutive wins against Power 5 opponents.

As for the overall state of the program, I think the verdict will have to wait until after the season. If Minnesota beats Wisconsin and earns a bowl victory, it will be another winning season for the program, which is a fairly good, above average track record I'd say, but not in the upper echelon.

If the Gophers lose Saturday, I'd say the Gophers program is fairly mediocre with occasional highs, kind of where it's been since Mason. A lot of seasons between 5 and 7 wins with the occasional 8+ victory year.
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Isn't it amazing the writer left out those obvious facts? You'd think a so-called Gopher football expert would include those items. Pretty irresponsible.
 

caliGopher said:
On the recruiting side, how the Gophers rank relative to other programs in the BIG can't be ignored.

The attention and resources behind recruiting ranking are much greater today. Comparing recruiting rankings from 20 years ago to today is a fools errand.

No one can say that Fleck hasn't delivered better class ranks. Anyone want to argue team talent was actually better under Brewster?

The numbers tell a part of the picture.

Where the talent ranks relative ti the rest of the B1G shows minor fluctuations from coach to coach but a long record of classes in the bottom hslf of the B1G consistently.

Regardless of the ranking year to year we've been from 10-14 the last 12 years in the B1G. Hardly anything to crow about.
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Yet they've finished in the top 5 or 6 in the Big a lot of those years. That's impressive.
 

A lot of the 'Fleck' conversations have a "Yes, but" side to them.
Yes, Fleck has the 9-win and 11-win seasons, but even in those good seasons, the team could not win a Division title.
Yes, Fleck's recruiting is an improvement over Mason and Kill, but he still hasn't cracked the top half of the B1G.
Yes, Fleck's teams have had strong running games, but the passing game has been inconsistent.

So IMHO, the state of the program is - better than before, but not as good as some people were hoping when Fleck was hired.
 



Look we are where we thought we would be before Lou Holtz turned on us and left for Notre Dame. We have a history of taking our foot off the gas, letting others back in to the arena after and being nice & fair. That's not how football is played. We need to learn to finish things and not leave loose ends that can be used to unravel any success.

Once we change that mindset we will have turned a reputational corner.
 
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caliGopher said:
On the recruiting side, how the Gophers rank relative to other programs in the BIG can't be ignored.

The attention and resources behind recruiting ranking are much greater today. Comparing recruiting rankings from 20 years ago to today is a fools errand.

No one can say that Fleck hasn't delivered better class ranks. Anyone want to argue team talent was actually better under Brewster?

The numbers tell a part of the picture.

Where the talent ranks relative ti the rest of the B1G shows minor fluctuations from coach to coach but a long record of classes in the bottom hslf of the B1G consistently.

Regardless of the ranking year to year we've been from 10-14 the last 12 years in the B1G. Hardly anything to crow about.
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What has made it difficult to recruit to Minneapolis for decades? That's the question that must be answered. If the answer is something that can be remedied then the program can return to prominence. If not, then not.
 

gopherjay said:
Tough to compare. Impossible to say anyone is the best coach. Mason got robbed by not being able to coach at the bank, never know what could have happened. Mason had huge potential had he been able to recruit the bank.

This Program is in the danger zone and next year is critical for Fleck.
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I always feel like this is so overblown. Is there any data to suggest that a new stadium creates a massive recruiting boost?
 

If anything, it might be tougher to convince a kid from the south to come up here knowing he’ll have to play outside. :cool:
 

caliGopher said:
On the recruiting side, how the Gophers rank relative to other programs in the BIG can't be ignored.

The attention and resources behind recruiting ranking are much greater today. Comparing recruiting rankings from 20 years ago to today is a fools errand.

No one can say that Fleck hasn't delivered better class ranks. Anyone want to argue team talent was actually better under Brewster?

The numbers tell a part of the picture.

Where the talent ranks relative ti the rest of the B1G shows minor fluctuations from coach to coach but a long record of classes in the bottom hslf of the B1G consistently.

Regardless of the ranking year to year we've been from 10-14 the last 12 years in the B1G. Hardly anything to crow about.
Click to expand...
Yeah that’s just it. Our classes have improved under Fleck, but pretty much the entire conference is recruiting better. The good news is that the gap in rankings from most of the other conference teams has shrunk quite a bit. The last two years which are dragging Flecks recruiting down kind of need to be taken with a grain of salt. The transfer portal is not being accurately factored in and recruiting rankings are largely based of the number of H.S. recruits you bring in.
 

FanSinceTheFifties said:
What has made it difficult to recruit to Minneapolis for decades? That's the question that must be answered. If the answer is something that can be remedied then the program can return to prominence. If not, then not.
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Distance from talent is the biggest factor I would say.
 


I say let the “big seven” play each other and the “little 11” play each other. And the winners have a play off. That will be our only chance of playing in another bowl. Sorry. but 5 wins will be considered a successful season.
 

Much is dependent on retaining kids. You can't lose contributors that you have invested resources in and expect to improve.
Keeping kids like the esko kid is imperative.
 

Where is this program at? Honestly, I think we're in for a rude awakening next season, and I'm not feeling confident with Fleck leading the charge anymore. Recruiting has been ok, but ok will not cut it moving forward. The NIL situation is not looking promising either, with Fleck almost weekly begging and complaining simultaneously about it.

But for me the number one issue is the complete lack of an offense that can throw the forward pass. It's 2023, not 1923. We are literally Iowa North, and that is unacceptable, and quite frankly, embarrassing. The lack of creativity and lack of BALLS!!! I don't even blame the OC. It's Fleck. He is a coward, who plays to keep it close, not to win. That Ohio State game was the nail in the coffin for me. He coached scared.

I watched several games that day where other teams were going up against superior opponents and all those coaches pulled out all the stops. Creative play calls. Going for it when they were across the 50, because why not. Instilling confidence in their players by believing they can get it done. I've been an athlete involved in sports my entire life. I was recruited by John Anderson, and Wacker than Mason(chose Baylor, baseball, sorry) and I can say with almost 100% certainty he has lost this team. I really started noticing it these last two weeks.

I don't know what the correct answer is to fix it. But starting next year the honeymoon period of playing in the weak ass West is over. If you can't close out Northwestern with a 31 point lead. If you allow Purdue 50 FU$%ING POINTS. If you can't beat Illinois. Well, what happens when UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington are all dropped in? And MSU hired a GREAT coach today.

I've just tired of the guy honestly. And its because I know, and I believe everyone on this site knows, Fleck won't change. He isn't a guy who is capable of coaching to his personnel, like a Kevin O'Connell and the phenomenal job he has done with Josh Dobbs. I'm personally bracing for a really rough year in 2024, probably followed by the AD and Coach being replaced. Hope I'm wrong.
 

btowngopher said:
I always feel like this is so overblown. Is there any data to suggest that a new stadium creates a massive recruiting boost?
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I can tell you when Mason recruited me and I went on my visit for the OSU game at the Dome, led thru all these dank tunnels and corridors, I remember it like it was yesterday. It was embarrassing compared to my experiences at other schools. So, I don't know if it creates a boost, but more importantly it creates a lasting memory of a pretty pathetic recruiting visit.
 


btowngopher said:
I always feel like this is so overblown. Is there any data to suggest that a new stadium creates a massive recruiting boost?
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I think it helps a lot. Our stadium is awesome and right on campus makes a big difference. If we were still trying to scrape out a living in the Metrodome, I think it would be a disaster. I also don’t think the cold makes that much difference with an outdoor stadium. The whole big 10 to one degree or another is in cold weather territory.
 

BAJJERFAN said:
Next year will start the big 7 PSU, OSU, Mich, USC, UCLA, Wash and Ore and little 11. The CCG will be the 2 top teams. What is the likelihood that one of the little 11 will play in the CCG in the next (few, several, many) many years. The little 11 will likely be competing against each other for the foreseeable future. I have a hard time seeing some schools/boosters doing the investment necessary in order to keep up with the Joneses.
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Dropping the East-West Divisions is utterly stupid and a finger in the eye of fans. Who cares if you are 16th of 18th or even 11th of 18. There is little or no motivation for fans. The TV money greed is driving traditional regional conferences into the ground to create two or three super conferences, each with too many teams, but ideal for TV matchups. RIP for football as we have known it for over a century, with open season on poaching players via the portal, open NIL payments under no rules or discipline to simply buy players - all to the bad. This anarchy will have to be ended by university presidents and ADs and possibly include another appeal to the Supreme Court.
 

Harrymannback77 said:
I can tell you when Mason recruited me and I went on my visit for the OSU game at the Dome, led thru all these dank tunnels and corridors, I remember it like it was yesterday. It was embarrassing compared to my experiences at other schools. So, I don't know if it creates a boost, but more importantly it creates a lasting memory of a pretty pathetic recruiting visit.
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Yep, except I was in Salem’s era but felt the same. Also spent a week on campus for the HS all star game and the practice facilities certainly didn’t stand out, either. I feel grateful that the fellas have the village and the bank. It might not be as fancy as some places but it’s damn nice and I’d rather watch a game at our stadium than anywhere in the country; but that’s just me.
 



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