If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a wonderful Christmas. You were the one who said he was a "lock", not me. When you remove all the negative possibilities from the set of options, of course you can make it appear that he's a "lock". I don't think it's likely that he goes 3-15, but I'm presenting a scenario to show how your "lock" nonsense is pure garbage.
How many Big Ten coaches (outside of Northwestern) have gone 0-for-4 in Tournament appearances since expansion in 1985 and gotten to keep their jobs for year 5? I'd be shocked if it's more than a handful, and surprised if it's any at all. His predecessor, who most of you hate, had 2 in his first 3 seasons and most of the fanbase was ready to run him out of town because he dared to miss in year 4. Now, his successor is very likely to go 0-for-4 and most of you think he's great and are worried about him leaving for a better job. It's bizarre. If you want to aspire to be Northwestern, be my guest.
I was curious about your question regarding Big Ten coaches retaining their jobs after missing the tournament in each of their first for seasons.
Ed DeChellis at Penn State made his first tournament appearance in year 8. Looks like he made the tournament with only 18 wins, then, IIRC, left for Navy of his own volition after the season. He also tied for 4th in the conference in year 6 and won the NIT.
Pat Chambers hasn't even made the NIT in his first 5 seasons, and will be entering his 6th this year.
Tommy Amaker never made the tournament in his 6 years at Michigan, but tied for 5th in conference and won the NIT in year 3.
Steve Yoder never made the tournament in 10 years at Wisconsin, though the first 2 are pre-1985.
Dan Monson made his first and only tournament appearance in year 6, fired at the start of year 8, though he had sanctions to deal with.
Fran McCaffery made his first appearance in year 4 and lost in a play-in game. Doesn't quite fit your rule though.
Tom Crean made the Sweet 16 in year 4, but had no postseason appearances at all in years 1-3, though, like with Monson, sanctions may have put him in a hole.
So I found about 4 or 5 instances, not counting Northwestern, and I'm guessing it's happened at Nebraska, but the information isn't easily accessible via wikipedia, because there are no Nebraska basketball fans to put together a full list of win-loss records for their program. I didn't check Maryland or Rutgers because historically they aren't Big Ten teams, but I don't think Rutgers has made the tournament since 1991, so it's probably happened there too.
You'd also have to take into account the fact that if Pitino misses the tournament, but at least comes close, we get just about everyone back for next year, and IMO would likely make the tournament and finish in the top half of the conference if he stays, though obviously that's just conjecture. Firing him might risk losing that momentum.
I wasn't trying to "show you up" with this post or anything, as I find myself agreeing with you most of the time and appreciate your contributions to the board, I was just curious about the answer to the question you posed. Seems like it's not totally unheard of for a struggling Big Ten program to retain a coach who hasn't made the tournament his first few years.
